Watch List Presentations April 17, 2008 David Light, Phil Rosen, Tim Tyson.
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Transcript of Watch List Presentations April 17, 2008 David Light, Phil Rosen, Tim Tyson.
Watch List Presentations
April 17, 2008
David Light, Phil Rosen, Tim Tyson
Company Overview Leading Biotechnology firm Discover, develop, and manufacture
medicines for patients with unmet medical needs
3 Main Areas of Focus Oncology Immunology Tissue Growth and Repair
http://www.gene.com/gene/ir/financials/annual-reports/2007/financials/marketedproducts.html, Accessed 15 Apr 08
2007 Product Sales
3 Blockbuster Drugs 38% Average Growth in
Product Sales past 5 years
Rituxan 27%
Avastin 27%
Herceptin 15%
Q1 2008 RevenueRituxan® 605 535 13%
Avastin® 600 533 13
Herceptin® 339 311 9
Lucentis® 198 211 -6
Xolair® 117 111 5
Tarceva® 111 102 9
Nutropin® Products 84 91 -8
Thrombolytics 67 68 -1
Pulmozyme® 57 52 10
Raptiva® 26 24 8
Total U.S. product sales 2,205 2,037 8
Net product sales to collaborators 174 292 -40
Total product sales 2,379 2,329 2
2008 Q1 2007 Q1 % Change
http://www.gene.com/gene/ir/financials/annual-reports/2007/financials/marketedproducts.html, Accessed 15 Apr 08
Avastin
Approved to treat Lung, Colon, and Breast Cancer Blocks blood vessels from forming
in tumors 31% sales growth from ’06 to ‘07
Rituxan
http://www.gene.com/gene/ir/financials/annual-reports/2007/financials/marketedproducts.html, Accessed 15 Apr 08
Approved to treat non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, Leukemia, and some autoimmune diseases Depletes B cells in diseases characterized
by having too many B cells or dysfunctional B cells
10% sales growth from ‘06 to ‘07
Herceptin
http://www.gene.com/gene/ir/financials/annual-reports/2007/financials/marketedproducts.html, Accessed 15 Apr 08
Approved to treat various forms of breast cancer Significant sales growth when new uses are
discovered, but otherwise steady growth
Pipeline•Many extended uses of Avastin, Herceptin, and Rituxan
•Majority already undergoing Phase III clinical trials
Management CEO/Chairman: Arthur Levinson, PH.D.
Started in the company as a senior scientist President Product Development: Susan Desmond-Hellmann, M.D.
Joined the company as a clinical scientist
Executive VP/CFO: David Ebersman Started as a business development analyst with the company
Executive VP of Research: Richard Scheller, PH.D. Prior to joining DNA he was a professor of Molecular and Cellular
Physiology and of Biological Sciences at Stanford
Management’s 2010 Goals Bring at least 20 new molecules into clinical
development Bring at least 15 major new products or indications
onto the market Achieve a compund annual non-GAAP earnings per
share growth rate of 25% Achieve cumulative free cash flow of $12 billion Become the number one U.S. oncology company in
sales
Roche Majority owner of Genentech Holding company that helps market
Genentech’s products internationally
Recent News and Developments On February 22, 2008, the FDA granted
accelerated approval for Avastin in combination with paclitaxel chemotherapy for the first-line treatment of advanced HER2-negative breast cancer.
Valuation
Valuation Current Price: $74.18
DCF Valuation: $114.83
Intrinsic Value: 103.35 – 126.31
WACC: 8.25%
Beta: .75, L/T Growth: 4%
Valuation Growth Rate
114.80 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0%
WACC 7.0%
111.22
120.87
132.95
148.47
169.17
198.15
241.61
314.05
458.94
7.5%
99.37
106.95
116.21
127.79
142.68
162.52
190.31
231.99
301.45
8.0%
89.55
95.61
102.87
111.76
122.86
137.14
156.17
182.82
222.80
8.25%
85.30
90.76
97.25
105.12
114.83
127.14
143.24
165.20
196.94
9.0%
74.22
78.26
82.98
88.56
95.24
103.42
113.64
126.78
144.30
9.5%
68.14
71.50
75.38
79.91
85.26
91.67
99.52
109.33
121.94
10.0%
62.84
65.67
68.89
72.62
76.96
82.10
88.26
95.79
105.20
11.0%
54.09
56.13
58.43
61.03
64.00
67.44
71.44
76.18
81.85
12.0%
47.16
48.68
50.37
52.25
54.37
56.77
59.51
62.68
66.38
Recommendation Add Genentech to the RCMP Watch List
Increasing uses of big 3 drugs Strong Drug Pipeline (Many Phase III Trials) Strong earnings growth Strong balance sheet (minimal debt, surplus cash) Not greatly threatened by generic competition Warrants further review in Fall 2008