West Coast Publishing 1Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts

Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real2Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic3Warming Bad- Happens Quickly4Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove5Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove6Warming Bad- Qualified Sources7Warming Bad- Extinction8Warming Bad- Extinction9Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise10Warming Bad- Global Conflict11Warming Bad- Water Wars12Warming Bad- State Failure13Warming Bad- Disease Spread14Warming Bad- Severe Storms15Warming Bad- Global Economy16Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture17

A2 Warming- Biased Sources18A2 Warming- IPCC Biased19A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified20A2 Warming- Not Happening21A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve22A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic23A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible24A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable25A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed26A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy27A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age28A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars29A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction30A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans31A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease32A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms33A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise34A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable35A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion36

West Coast Publishing 2Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real 1 The worldrsquos pre-eminent scientists have confirmed warming is occurring and it is human inducedUnion of Concerned Scientists February 2 2007 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwucsusaorgnewspress_releaseauthoritative-report-confirms-0008htmlAfter six years of assessing climate science research from around the world the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has solidified the scientific understanding that key heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere have increased markedly as a result of human activities and the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming The report states that evidence of the climates warming is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global mean sea level This report reaffirms that our emissions are the primary cause of global warming said Peter Frumhoff Director of Science and Policy at UCS The good news is that by taking action today to dramatically reduce our emissions we can avoid much of the warming projected in this report The new IPCC Working Group I Summary for Policymakers synthesizes the current understanding of climate change and projects future climate change using the most comprehensive set of well-established global climate models The report is the first of three major studies that comprise the IPCC Fourth Assessment with input from more than 1200 authors and 2500 scientific expert reviewers from more than 130 countries Subsequent reports will evaluate global warming consequences and options for reducing future warming The report confirms that the current level of carbon dioxide a critical heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650000 years Since the dawn of the industrial era carbon dioxide and other key heat-trapping gases have increased at a rate that is very likely to have been unprecedented in more than 10000 years

2 Global warming is occurringIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change November 17 2007 accessed May 16 2008 httpwwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf p 2Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level (Figure SPM1) 11 Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850) The 100-year linear trend (1906-2005) of 074 [056 to 092]degC1 is larger than the corresponding trend of 06 [04 to 08]degC (1901-2000) given in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) (Figure SPM1) The temperature increase is widespread over the globe and is greater at higher northern latitudes Land regions have warmed faster than the oceans (Figures SPM2 SPM4) 11 12 Rising sea level is consistent with warming (Figure SPM1)

3 The preponderance of evidence shows warming is happening and is anthropogenicHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 59Global warming is no longer a fringe theory but has quickly evolved into a mainstream issue that even George W Bush and former Australian Prime Minister John Howard could no longer ignore Given that newly-elected Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has committed his government to ratify the Kyoto Protocol the United States will have the dubious status of being the only developed country to have not ratified this agreement Global average surface temperatures rose 06mdash07C during the 20 century 2005 depending upon the source consulted was either the hottest year or the second hottest year since temperatures began to be systematically recorded in the mid-nineteenth century 40 per cent of the Arctic icecap has retreated during the past several decades and glaciers around the world have been rapidly retreating The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change consisting of some 2500 climate scientists around the world recently issued a preliminary report This report projected that the average global temperature will rise by about 3degC at the present rate of greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 While climate scientists long debated whether global warming was primarily a natural phenomenon or a human-created one the vast majority now agree that it has been further induced by the emission of various greenhouse gases particularly carbon dioxide which has increased from 280 parts per million at the time of the Industrial Revolution to about 379 parts per million in 2003

West Coast Publishing 3Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic 1 Warming is human inducedDiana Liverman Professor at the School of Geography at the Oxford University Centre for the Environment February 2008 Global Environmental Change p 4Working Group I (WGI IPCC 2007) highlighted the unequivocal evidence that the world is warming and the attribution of much of this observed warming (and some other climate changes) to greenhouse gas emissions In terms of observed impacts the WGII conclusions with the greatest levels of confidence (nine in ten chance) are that recent warming is affecting terrestrial biological systems with polar and upward shifts in the range of many species and earlier timing of vegetation growth and animal breeding in spring (Chapter 1) These conclusions are based on meta-analytical studies of hundreds of ecosystem observations and are synthesised in a map (SPM-1) that shows the percent of ecosystem (together with other physical) changes in different world regions since 1970 consistent with a warming This map clearly shows a bias to Europe (where more than 95 of the data series were generated) and the urgent need for studies in the southern hemisphere and Polar Regions A rather laboured argument suggests that these impacts can be attributed to anthropogenic warming because they are consistent with WGI attribution of global temperature to increase emissions and with the direction of change expected as a response to warming because of spatial agreement between observed impacts and because of a modest number of modelling studies that show better simulations of climate impacts with anthropogenic forcing than without

2 Warming is due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissionsIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change November 17 2007 accessed May 16 2008 httpwwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf p 5Global atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years 22 Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 (379ppm) and CH4 (1774ppb) in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650000 years Global increases in CO 2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use with land-use change pro- viding another significant but smaller contribution It is very likely that the observed increase in CH 4 concentration is pre- dominantly due to agriculture and fossil fuel use CH 4 growth rates have declined since the early 1990s consistent with to- tal emissions (sum of anthropogenic and natural sources) be- ing nearly constant during this period The increase in N 2O concentration is primarily due to agriculture 22 There is very high confidence that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming6 22 Most of the observed increase in global average tempera- tures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentra- tions7 It is likely that there has been significant anthro- pogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent (except Antarctica) (Figure SPM4) 24

3 Studies show C02 is responsible for warmingJoseph Florence staff researcher for Earth Policy Institute July 2007 USA Today p 61Elevated temperatures primarily are due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere particularly carbon dioxide (C02) from the burning of fossil fuels Once released C02 traps heat that would otherwise escape back into space--and these carbon dioxide emissions have been on the rise since the start of the Industrial Revolution in 1760 Two recent reports demonstrate the exceptional levels of current global temperature and atmospheric C02 Using records stored in ice tree rings and fossils scientists have estimated that the Northern Hemisphere is warmer now than at any time in the past 1200 years Another study revealed that atmospheric levels of C02 and methane yet a different greenhouse gas are higher today than at any time in the A last 650000 years

4 Cosmic rays are not the cause of warmingT Sloan Lecturer in Physics at University of Lancaster and AW Wolfendale Lecturer in Physics at Durham University 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httparxivorgpdf07064294It has been claimed by others that observed temporal correlations of terrestrial cloud cover with the cosmic ray intensity are causal The possibility arises therefore of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming If true the implications would be very great We have examined this claim to look for evidence to corroborate it So far we have not found any and so our tentative conclusions are to doubt it Such correlations as appear are more

West Coast Publishing 4Warming Impacts and Takeouts

likely to be due to the small variations in solar irradiance which of course correlate with cosmic rays We estimate that less than 15 of the II-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2 of the warming over the last 35 years is due to this cause

West Coast Publishing 5Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Happens Quickly 1 Models underestimate the risk of rapid warmingErika Engelhaupt staff writer July 1 2007 Environmental Science amp Technology p 4488Following the latest projections by the UNrsquos Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) new research shows that models in the report underestimate some changes that are already under way Sea ice is melting and sea level is rising faster than models had predicted and one brake on warming the uptake of CO2 by oceans appears not to be working as well as scientists had thought Results published in Geophysi- cal Research Letters (2007 34 L09501) in May show that ice-free summers could be even more like- ly this century than estimated in Februaryrsquos IPCC report Julienne Stroeve of the National Snow and Ice Data Center led a group that analyzed nearly 60 years of sea ice records from satellites ships and airplanes concluding that ice has disappeared at an average rate of 78 per decade since 1953 com- pared with 25 per decade in computer simulations And the Southern Ocean is not exactly doing its part taking up less CO2mdash5ndash30 less per de- cademdashthan expected according to a study published online May 17 in Science (2007 doi 101126sci- ence1136188) Models hadnrsquot ac- counted for increased winds that push currents to bring deep car- bon to the surface where it perco- lates back into the atmosphere Stefan Rahmstorf a climatolo- gist at Potsdam University (Ger- many) points out that models tend to underestimate sea level rise too ldquoAs climatologists wersquore often under fire because of our pessi- mistic message and wersquore accused of overestimating the problemrdquo he says ldquoBut I think the evidence points to the oppositemdashwe may have been underestimating itrdquo

2 Models are too conservative in estimating the rate of warmingErika Engelhaupt staff writer July 1 2007 Environmental Science amp Technology p 4488But Rahmstorf says that model- ers might unwittingly make mod- els more conservative by applying ldquoone-sided filtersrdquo weeding out models that clearly overestimate the changes seen so far but hang- ing onto ones ldquowhere everything is too well behaved and stablerdquo In January Rahmstorf pub- lished sea-level-rise predictions in Science noting that the actual rise tracks the uppermost lim- its of 2001 IPCC projections De- spite the previous underestimate this yearrsquos IPCC report gave even smaller sea-level-rise projections partly because authors omitted any estimate of accelerating ice flow ldquoTherersquos absolutely no reason to assume sea level rise is going to be lower than previously thoughtrdquo Rahmstorf says The underestimates started to become clear last year when Eric Rignot of NASArsquos Jet Propul- sion Laboratory used new satel- lite techniques to track a decline in Greenlandrsquos ice Within months satellite results showed the Antarc- tic ice sheet losing mass too Be- fore those data came out scientists had assumed polar ice sheets were in balance for lack of better infor- mation In 2001 the IPCC said that loss of ice sheets leading to faster sea level rise was ldquovery unlikely during the 21st centuryrdquo The latest IPCC report abandons that posi- tion concluding that the Antarctic ice sheet is already contributing to sea level rise

3 Rapid climate change is impendingMike Tidwell director of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network MayJune 2008 Orion Magazine accessed May 14 2008 httpwwworionmagazineorgindexphparticlesarticle2956All of which means itrsquos time to face a fundamental truth the majority of the worldrsquos climate scientists have been totally wrong Theyrsquove failed us completely Not concerning the basics of global warming Of course the climate is changing Of course humans are driving the process through fossil fuel combustion and deforestation No what the scientists have been wrong aboutmdashand I mean really really wrongmdashis the speed at which itrsquos all occurring Our climate system isnrsquot just ldquochangingrdquo Itrsquos not just ldquowarmingrdquo Itrsquos snapping violently into a whole new regime right before our eyes A fantastic spasm of altered weather patterns is crashing down upon our heads right now The only question left for America is this can we snap along with the climate Can we as the worldrsquos biggest polluter create a grassroots political uprising that emerges as abruptly as a snap of the fingers A movement that demands the clean-energy revolution in the time we have left to save ourselves I think we can do it I hope we can do it Indeed the recent political ldquosnaprdquo in Australia where a devastating and unprecedented drought made climate change a central voting issue and so helped topple a Bush-like government of deniers should give us encouragement But time is running out fast for a similar transformation here

West Coast Publishing 6Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove 1 Positive feedbacks mean warming will be fast and violentMike Tidwell director of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network MayJune 2008 Orion Magazine accessed May 14 2008 httpwwworionmagazineorgindexphparticlesarticle2956Actually itrsquos the so-called feedback loops that have tripped up scientists so badly causing the experts to wildly misjudge the speed of the climate crash Having never witnessed a planet overheat before no one quite anticipated the geometric rate of change To cite one example when that brilliantly white Arctic ice melts to blue ocean it takes with it a huge measure of solar reflectivity which increases sunlight absorption and feeds more warmth back into the system amplifying everything dramatically And as northern forests across Canada continue to die en masse due to warming they switch from being net absorbers of CO2 to net emitters when forest decomposition sets in And as tundra melts all across Siberia it releases long-buried methane a greenhouse gas twenty times more powerful than even CO2 And so on and so on and so on Like the ear-splitting shriek when a microphone gets too close to its amplifier literally dozens of major feedback loops are screeching into place worldwide all at the same time ushering in the era of runaway climate change ldquoOnly in the past five years as researchers have learned more about the way our planet works have some come to the conclusion that changes probably wonrsquot be as smooth or as gradual as [previously] imaginedrdquo writes Fred Pearce in his new book With Speed and Violence Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change ldquoWe are in all probability already embarked on a roller coaster ride of lurching and sometimes brutal changerdquo

2 Positive feedbacks risk runaway warmingMichael McCarthy Environment editor May 18 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwindependentcoukopinioncommentators20michael-mccarthy-positive-feedback-may-advance-globa20l-warming-449320htmlThe fear of some climate scientists is that just such a positive feedback might occur with global warming in which the warming itself precipitates changes in the earths natural systems which themselves cause additional warming which then causes further changes and so on in an unstoppable acceleration This fear is well founded because records of ancient climates deduced from cores driven deep into the polar ice show that this has happened in the past Previous episodes of global warming at the end of ice ages have indeed developed a runaway character with enormous temperature rises of as much as 10C in 50 years There are a string of potential feedbacks associated with climate change nearly all of them likely to intensify the process One for example concerns the melting of the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean which climate models suggest will be gone by 2080 - or could even be gone considerably earlier than that

3 Positive feedback leads to rapid warmingJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfPlease allow one final comment The 6degC sensitivity (for doubled CO2) is valid for a specified change of greenhouse gases as the climate forcing That is relevant for human-made change of atmospheric composition and this sensitivity yields the correct answer for long-term climate change if actual greenhouse gas changes are used as the forcing mechanism However climate model scenarios for the future usually incorporate human-made emissions of greenhouse gases Atmospheric greenhouse gas amounts may be affected by feedbacks which thus alter expected climate change Greenhouse gas feedbacks are not idle speculation Paleoclimate records reveal times in the Earthrsquos history when global warming resulted in release of large amounts of methane to the atmosphere Potential sources of methane include methane hydrates lsquofrozenrsquo in ocean sediments and tundra which release methane in thawing Recent Arctic warming is causing release of methane from permafrost (Christensen et al 2004 Walter et al 2006) but not to a degree that has prevented near stabilization of atmospheric methane amount over the past several years

West Coast Publishing 7Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove 1 Atmospheric C02 levels are near a dangerous tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfRecent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm and likely less than that Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate albeit important adjustments to the CO2 limit Realization of how close the planet is to lsquotipping pointsrsquo with unacceptable consequences especially ice sheet disintegration with sea level rise out of humanityrsquos control has a bright side It implies an imperative we must find a way to keep the CO2 amount so low that it will also avert other detrimental effects that had begun to seem inevitable eg ocean acidification loss of most alpine glaciers and thus the water supply for millions of people and shifting of climatic zones with consequent extermination of species

2 The Earth is on the brink of a climate tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfCrystallizing scientific data and analyses reveal that the Earth is close to dangerous climate change to tipping points of the system with potential for irreversible deleterious effects This information derives in part from paleoclimate data ie the record of how climate changed in the past as well as from measurements being made now by satellites and in the field The Earthrsquos history shows that climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings Positive feedbacks predominate This has allowed the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states Huge natural climate changes from glacial to interglacial states have been driven by very weak very slow forcings and positive feedbacks Now humans are applying a far stronger forcing much more rapidly as we put back into the atmosphere in a geologic heartbeat fossil fuels that accumulated over millions of years Positive feedbacks are beginning to occur on a range of time scales

3 C02 levels are near a tipping pointmdashchanging course is key to human survivalJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies 2008 2008-2009 State of the Wild p 7-8Our home planet is dangerously near a tipping point at which human-made greenhouse gases reach a level where major climate changes can proceed mostly under their own momen- tum Warming will shift cli- matic zones by intensifying the hydrologic cycle affect- ing freshwater availability and human health We will see repeat- ed coastal tragedies associated with storms and continuously rising sea lev- els The implications are profound and the only resolution is for humans to move to a fundamentally different energy pathway within a decade Oth- erwise it will be too late for one-third of the worldrsquos animal and plant species and millions of the most vulnerable members of our own species We may be able to preserve the re- markable planet on which civilization developed but it will not be easy spe- cial interests are resistant to change and have inordinate power in our gov- ernments especially in the United States Understanding the nature and causes of climate change is essential to crafting solutions to our current crisis

4 Now is the crucial time to address climate changeJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfWe have solved or are solving those pollution problems at least in developed countries But we did not address them until they hit us with full force That approach to wait and see and fix the problems post facto unfortunately will not work in the case of global climate change On the contrary the inertia of the climate system the fact that much of the climate change due to gases already in the air is still lsquoin the pipelinersquo and the time required for economically-sensible phase-out of existing technologies together have a profound implication They imply that ignoring the climate problem at this time for even another decade would serve to lock in future catastrophic climatic change and impacts that will unfold during the remainder of this century and beyond (references A and B)

West Coast Publishing 8Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 9Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Qualified Sources 1 The scientific consensus is that warming is occurring and is human inducedNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego December 2004 Science p 5702Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science (2) Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change This is not the case The scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme IPCCs purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis for informed policy action primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature (3) In its most recent assessment IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earths climate is being affected by human activities Human activities are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents that absorb or scatter radiant energy [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations [p 21 in (4)] IPCC is not alone in its conclusions In recent years all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements For example the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions begins Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earths atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise [p 1 in (5)] The report explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes The IPCCs conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue [p 3 in (5)] Others agree The American Meteorological Society (6) the American Geophysical Union (7) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling

2 The IPCC is extremely credibleUnion of Concerned Scientists August 24 2007 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwucsusaorgglobal_warmingsciencethe-ipcchtmlAR4 will be the most comprehensive synthesis of climate change science to date Experts from more than 130 countries are contributing to this assessment which represents six years of work More than 450 lead authors have received input from more than 800 contributing authors and an additional 2500 experts reviewed the draft documents AR4 will comprise three sections or working groups that deal with the scientific basis of global warming (Working Group I) its consequences (Working Group II) and options for slowing the trend (Working Group III) The IPCC will release summaries of the three working group documents over the course of 2007 culminating in the publication of the final ldquosynthesis reportrdquo at the end of the year The inclusive process by which IPCC assessments are developed and accepted by its members ensures exceptional scientific credibility As such AR4 has the potential to play a key role in informing decision makers as they shape climate policies over the next several years

3 All reputable scientific organizations in the US agree with the warming hypothesisNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego Climate Change What It Means for Us Our Children and Our Grandchildren 2007 p 68In the past several years all of the major scientific bodies in the United States whose membershiprsquos expertise bears directly on the matter have issued reports or statements that confirm the IPCC conclusion One is the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001) which originated from a White House request Here is how it opens ldquoGreenhouse gases are accumulating in Earthrsquos atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to riserdquo (National Academy of Sciences 2001 1) The report explicitly addresses whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes ldquoThe IPCCrsquos conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issuerdquo (National National Academy of Sciences 2001 3) Other US scientific groups agree

West Coast Publishing 10Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 11Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Unchecked climate change will make most of the Earth uninhabitableMary Wood Professor of Law Morse Center for Law and Politics Resident Scholar University of Oregon School of Law 2007 Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review p 583-584If we do nothing to curb carbon emissions we will commit ourselves to a future that most Americans cannot even imagine Jim Hansen the leading climate scientist for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) presents the ten degree Fahrenheit scenario it will send fifty percent or more species into extinction That is equivalent to the mass extinction that occurred fifty-five million years ago In his words Life will survive but it will do so on a transformed planet A mere five-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase may cause an eighty foot rise in sea level Hansen points out In that case the United States would lose most East Coast cities Boston New York Philadelphia Washington and Miami indeed practically the entire state of Florida would be under water Fifty million people in the US live below that sea level I could go on detailing on how climate crisis will affect the lives of every human on Earth What I have mentioned is just the tip of the icebergmdasha phrase on its way out British commentator Mark Lynas au- thor of High Tide summarizes the Earths situation this way Let me put it simply if we go on emitting greenhouse gases at anything like the current rate most of the surface of the globe will be rendered uninhab- itable within the lifetimes of most readers of this article

2 Warming will cause global instability and trigger US isolationismDavid Stipp staff writer February 9 2004 Fortune accessed May 15 2008 httpmoneycnncommagazinesfortunefortune_archive20040209360120indexhtmFor planning purposes it makes sense to focus on a midrange case of abrupt change A century of cold dry windy weather across the Northern Hemisphere that suddenly came on 8200 years ago fits the bill--its severity fell between that of the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age The event is thought to have been triggered by a conveyor collapse after a time of rising temperatures not unlike todays global warming Suppose it recurred beginning in 2010 Here are some of the things that might happen by 2020 At first the changes are easily mistaken for normal weather variation--allowing skeptics to dismiss them as a blip of little importance and leaving policymakers and the public paralyzed with uncertainty But by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening The average temperature has fallen by up to five degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of North America and Asia and up to six degrees in parts of Europe (By comparison the average temperature over the North Atlantic during the last ice age was ten to 15 degrees lower than it is today) Massive droughts have begun in key agricultural regions The average annual rainfall has dropped by nearly 30 in northern Europe and its climate has become more like Siberias Violent storms are increasingly common as the conveyor becomes wobbly on its way to collapse A particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making coastal cities such as the Hague unlivable In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River area are breached disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south Megadroughts afflict the US especially in the southern states along with winds that are 15 stronger on average than they are now causing widespread dust storms and soil loss The US is better positioned to cope than most nations however thanks to its diverse growing climates wealth technology and abundant resources That has a downside though It magnifies the haves-vs-have-nots gap and fosters bellicose finger-pointing at America Turning inward the US effectively seeks to build a fortress around itself to preserve resources Borders are strengthened to hold back starving immigrants from Mexico South America and the Caribbean islands--waves of boat people pose especially grim problems

3 Abrupt climate change risks nuclear conflictPeter Schwartz et al former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomAs famine disease and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change many countriesrsquo needs will exceed their carrying capacity This will create a sense of desperation which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance Imagine eastern European countries struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food water and energy eyeing Russia whose population is already in decline for access to its grain minerals and energy supply Or picture Japan suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water supply eying Russiarsquos Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes Envision Pakistan India and China ndash all

West Coast Publishing 12Warming Impacts and Takeouts

armed with nuclear weapons ndash skirmishing at their borders over refugees access to shared rivers and arable land Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights ndash leading to conflicts at sea

West Coast Publishing 13Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Rapid climate change could drive most species to extinctionJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfThere are millions of species of plants and animals on Earth These species depend upon each other in a tangled web of interactions that humans are only beginning to fathom Each species lives and can survive only within a specific climatic zone When climate changes species migrate in an attempt to stay within their climatic niche However large rapid climate change can drive most of the species on the planet to extinction Geologic records indicate that mass extinctions with loss of more than half of existing species occurred several times in the Earthrsquos history New species developed but that process required hundreds of thousands even millions of years If we destroy a large portion of the species of creation those that have existed on Earth in recent millennia the Earth will be a far more desolate planet for as many generations of humanity as we can imagine

2 Global warming is the pre-eminent threat to global biodiversityJay Malcolm et al Professor of Forestry at the University of Toronto April 2006 Conservation Biology p 538Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale We used major vegetation types ( biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not and (4) different migration capabilities Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships In addition average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years Projected percent extinctions ranged from lt1 to 43 of the endemic biota (average 116) with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates in some scenarios however hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region Caribbean Indo-Burma Mediterranean Basin Southwest Australia and Tropical Andes where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planetrsquos biodiversity

3 Warming risks widespread species extinctionAlan Pounds et al with the Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation January 12 2006 Nature p 161Humans are altering the Earths climate and thus the workings of living systems including pathogens and their hosts Among the predicted outcomes is the extinction of many species but detecting such an effect is difficult against a backdrop of other changes especially habitat destruction One approach is to focus on organisms for which current rates of extinction exceed those expected from habitat loss Amphibians are a case in point Thousands of species have declined and hundreds are on the brink of extinction or have already vanished The Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA) lists 427 species as critically endangered including 122 species that are possibly extinct A majority of the former and nearly all of the latter have declined even in seemingly undisturbed environments The causes have remained unclear in part because of their complexity Although pathogens are implicated their relationship to environmental change is poorly understood Here we test the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis which predicts declines in unusually warm years but does not assume a particular disease or chain of events Recent studies have considered this idea1 yet data have not permitted a geographically broad test that examines landscape alteration global warming and climate fluctuations on the timescale of El Nintildeo Suffering widespread extinctions often despite habitat protection harlequin frogs (Atelopus) afford such a test A new database produced by 75 researchers documents the case in unprecedented detail owing to the nature of these members of the toad family (Bufonidae) Brightly coloured and active during the day

West Coast Publishing 14Warming Impacts and Takeouts

near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

West Coast Publishing 15Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

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for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

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A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 2Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real 1 The worldrsquos pre-eminent scientists have confirmed warming is occurring and it is human inducedUnion of Concerned Scientists February 2 2007 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwucsusaorgnewspress_releaseauthoritative-report-confirms-0008htmlAfter six years of assessing climate science research from around the world the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has solidified the scientific understanding that key heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere have increased markedly as a result of human activities and the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming The report states that evidence of the climates warming is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global mean sea level This report reaffirms that our emissions are the primary cause of global warming said Peter Frumhoff Director of Science and Policy at UCS The good news is that by taking action today to dramatically reduce our emissions we can avoid much of the warming projected in this report The new IPCC Working Group I Summary for Policymakers synthesizes the current understanding of climate change and projects future climate change using the most comprehensive set of well-established global climate models The report is the first of three major studies that comprise the IPCC Fourth Assessment with input from more than 1200 authors and 2500 scientific expert reviewers from more than 130 countries Subsequent reports will evaluate global warming consequences and options for reducing future warming The report confirms that the current level of carbon dioxide a critical heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650000 years Since the dawn of the industrial era carbon dioxide and other key heat-trapping gases have increased at a rate that is very likely to have been unprecedented in more than 10000 years

2 Global warming is occurringIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change November 17 2007 accessed May 16 2008 httpwwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf p 2Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level (Figure SPM1) 11 Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850) The 100-year linear trend (1906-2005) of 074 [056 to 092]degC1 is larger than the corresponding trend of 06 [04 to 08]degC (1901-2000) given in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) (Figure SPM1) The temperature increase is widespread over the globe and is greater at higher northern latitudes Land regions have warmed faster than the oceans (Figures SPM2 SPM4) 11 12 Rising sea level is consistent with warming (Figure SPM1)

3 The preponderance of evidence shows warming is happening and is anthropogenicHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 59Global warming is no longer a fringe theory but has quickly evolved into a mainstream issue that even George W Bush and former Australian Prime Minister John Howard could no longer ignore Given that newly-elected Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has committed his government to ratify the Kyoto Protocol the United States will have the dubious status of being the only developed country to have not ratified this agreement Global average surface temperatures rose 06mdash07C during the 20 century 2005 depending upon the source consulted was either the hottest year or the second hottest year since temperatures began to be systematically recorded in the mid-nineteenth century 40 per cent of the Arctic icecap has retreated during the past several decades and glaciers around the world have been rapidly retreating The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change consisting of some 2500 climate scientists around the world recently issued a preliminary report This report projected that the average global temperature will rise by about 3degC at the present rate of greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 While climate scientists long debated whether global warming was primarily a natural phenomenon or a human-created one the vast majority now agree that it has been further induced by the emission of various greenhouse gases particularly carbon dioxide which has increased from 280 parts per million at the time of the Industrial Revolution to about 379 parts per million in 2003

West Coast Publishing 3Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic 1 Warming is human inducedDiana Liverman Professor at the School of Geography at the Oxford University Centre for the Environment February 2008 Global Environmental Change p 4Working Group I (WGI IPCC 2007) highlighted the unequivocal evidence that the world is warming and the attribution of much of this observed warming (and some other climate changes) to greenhouse gas emissions In terms of observed impacts the WGII conclusions with the greatest levels of confidence (nine in ten chance) are that recent warming is affecting terrestrial biological systems with polar and upward shifts in the range of many species and earlier timing of vegetation growth and animal breeding in spring (Chapter 1) These conclusions are based on meta-analytical studies of hundreds of ecosystem observations and are synthesised in a map (SPM-1) that shows the percent of ecosystem (together with other physical) changes in different world regions since 1970 consistent with a warming This map clearly shows a bias to Europe (where more than 95 of the data series were generated) and the urgent need for studies in the southern hemisphere and Polar Regions A rather laboured argument suggests that these impacts can be attributed to anthropogenic warming because they are consistent with WGI attribution of global temperature to increase emissions and with the direction of change expected as a response to warming because of spatial agreement between observed impacts and because of a modest number of modelling studies that show better simulations of climate impacts with anthropogenic forcing than without

2 Warming is due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissionsIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change November 17 2007 accessed May 16 2008 httpwwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf p 5Global atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years 22 Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 (379ppm) and CH4 (1774ppb) in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650000 years Global increases in CO 2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use with land-use change pro- viding another significant but smaller contribution It is very likely that the observed increase in CH 4 concentration is pre- dominantly due to agriculture and fossil fuel use CH 4 growth rates have declined since the early 1990s consistent with to- tal emissions (sum of anthropogenic and natural sources) be- ing nearly constant during this period The increase in N 2O concentration is primarily due to agriculture 22 There is very high confidence that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming6 22 Most of the observed increase in global average tempera- tures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentra- tions7 It is likely that there has been significant anthro- pogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent (except Antarctica) (Figure SPM4) 24

3 Studies show C02 is responsible for warmingJoseph Florence staff researcher for Earth Policy Institute July 2007 USA Today p 61Elevated temperatures primarily are due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere particularly carbon dioxide (C02) from the burning of fossil fuels Once released C02 traps heat that would otherwise escape back into space--and these carbon dioxide emissions have been on the rise since the start of the Industrial Revolution in 1760 Two recent reports demonstrate the exceptional levels of current global temperature and atmospheric C02 Using records stored in ice tree rings and fossils scientists have estimated that the Northern Hemisphere is warmer now than at any time in the past 1200 years Another study revealed that atmospheric levels of C02 and methane yet a different greenhouse gas are higher today than at any time in the A last 650000 years

4 Cosmic rays are not the cause of warmingT Sloan Lecturer in Physics at University of Lancaster and AW Wolfendale Lecturer in Physics at Durham University 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httparxivorgpdf07064294It has been claimed by others that observed temporal correlations of terrestrial cloud cover with the cosmic ray intensity are causal The possibility arises therefore of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming If true the implications would be very great We have examined this claim to look for evidence to corroborate it So far we have not found any and so our tentative conclusions are to doubt it Such correlations as appear are more

West Coast Publishing 4Warming Impacts and Takeouts

likely to be due to the small variations in solar irradiance which of course correlate with cosmic rays We estimate that less than 15 of the II-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2 of the warming over the last 35 years is due to this cause

West Coast Publishing 5Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Happens Quickly 1 Models underestimate the risk of rapid warmingErika Engelhaupt staff writer July 1 2007 Environmental Science amp Technology p 4488Following the latest projections by the UNrsquos Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) new research shows that models in the report underestimate some changes that are already under way Sea ice is melting and sea level is rising faster than models had predicted and one brake on warming the uptake of CO2 by oceans appears not to be working as well as scientists had thought Results published in Geophysi- cal Research Letters (2007 34 L09501) in May show that ice-free summers could be even more like- ly this century than estimated in Februaryrsquos IPCC report Julienne Stroeve of the National Snow and Ice Data Center led a group that analyzed nearly 60 years of sea ice records from satellites ships and airplanes concluding that ice has disappeared at an average rate of 78 per decade since 1953 com- pared with 25 per decade in computer simulations And the Southern Ocean is not exactly doing its part taking up less CO2mdash5ndash30 less per de- cademdashthan expected according to a study published online May 17 in Science (2007 doi 101126sci- ence1136188) Models hadnrsquot ac- counted for increased winds that push currents to bring deep car- bon to the surface where it perco- lates back into the atmosphere Stefan Rahmstorf a climatolo- gist at Potsdam University (Ger- many) points out that models tend to underestimate sea level rise too ldquoAs climatologists wersquore often under fire because of our pessi- mistic message and wersquore accused of overestimating the problemrdquo he says ldquoBut I think the evidence points to the oppositemdashwe may have been underestimating itrdquo

2 Models are too conservative in estimating the rate of warmingErika Engelhaupt staff writer July 1 2007 Environmental Science amp Technology p 4488But Rahmstorf says that model- ers might unwittingly make mod- els more conservative by applying ldquoone-sided filtersrdquo weeding out models that clearly overestimate the changes seen so far but hang- ing onto ones ldquowhere everything is too well behaved and stablerdquo In January Rahmstorf pub- lished sea-level-rise predictions in Science noting that the actual rise tracks the uppermost lim- its of 2001 IPCC projections De- spite the previous underestimate this yearrsquos IPCC report gave even smaller sea-level-rise projections partly because authors omitted any estimate of accelerating ice flow ldquoTherersquos absolutely no reason to assume sea level rise is going to be lower than previously thoughtrdquo Rahmstorf says The underestimates started to become clear last year when Eric Rignot of NASArsquos Jet Propul- sion Laboratory used new satel- lite techniques to track a decline in Greenlandrsquos ice Within months satellite results showed the Antarc- tic ice sheet losing mass too Be- fore those data came out scientists had assumed polar ice sheets were in balance for lack of better infor- mation In 2001 the IPCC said that loss of ice sheets leading to faster sea level rise was ldquovery unlikely during the 21st centuryrdquo The latest IPCC report abandons that posi- tion concluding that the Antarctic ice sheet is already contributing to sea level rise

3 Rapid climate change is impendingMike Tidwell director of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network MayJune 2008 Orion Magazine accessed May 14 2008 httpwwworionmagazineorgindexphparticlesarticle2956All of which means itrsquos time to face a fundamental truth the majority of the worldrsquos climate scientists have been totally wrong Theyrsquove failed us completely Not concerning the basics of global warming Of course the climate is changing Of course humans are driving the process through fossil fuel combustion and deforestation No what the scientists have been wrong aboutmdashand I mean really really wrongmdashis the speed at which itrsquos all occurring Our climate system isnrsquot just ldquochangingrdquo Itrsquos not just ldquowarmingrdquo Itrsquos snapping violently into a whole new regime right before our eyes A fantastic spasm of altered weather patterns is crashing down upon our heads right now The only question left for America is this can we snap along with the climate Can we as the worldrsquos biggest polluter create a grassroots political uprising that emerges as abruptly as a snap of the fingers A movement that demands the clean-energy revolution in the time we have left to save ourselves I think we can do it I hope we can do it Indeed the recent political ldquosnaprdquo in Australia where a devastating and unprecedented drought made climate change a central voting issue and so helped topple a Bush-like government of deniers should give us encouragement But time is running out fast for a similar transformation here

West Coast Publishing 6Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove 1 Positive feedbacks mean warming will be fast and violentMike Tidwell director of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network MayJune 2008 Orion Magazine accessed May 14 2008 httpwwworionmagazineorgindexphparticlesarticle2956Actually itrsquos the so-called feedback loops that have tripped up scientists so badly causing the experts to wildly misjudge the speed of the climate crash Having never witnessed a planet overheat before no one quite anticipated the geometric rate of change To cite one example when that brilliantly white Arctic ice melts to blue ocean it takes with it a huge measure of solar reflectivity which increases sunlight absorption and feeds more warmth back into the system amplifying everything dramatically And as northern forests across Canada continue to die en masse due to warming they switch from being net absorbers of CO2 to net emitters when forest decomposition sets in And as tundra melts all across Siberia it releases long-buried methane a greenhouse gas twenty times more powerful than even CO2 And so on and so on and so on Like the ear-splitting shriek when a microphone gets too close to its amplifier literally dozens of major feedback loops are screeching into place worldwide all at the same time ushering in the era of runaway climate change ldquoOnly in the past five years as researchers have learned more about the way our planet works have some come to the conclusion that changes probably wonrsquot be as smooth or as gradual as [previously] imaginedrdquo writes Fred Pearce in his new book With Speed and Violence Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change ldquoWe are in all probability already embarked on a roller coaster ride of lurching and sometimes brutal changerdquo

2 Positive feedbacks risk runaway warmingMichael McCarthy Environment editor May 18 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwindependentcoukopinioncommentators20michael-mccarthy-positive-feedback-may-advance-globa20l-warming-449320htmlThe fear of some climate scientists is that just such a positive feedback might occur with global warming in which the warming itself precipitates changes in the earths natural systems which themselves cause additional warming which then causes further changes and so on in an unstoppable acceleration This fear is well founded because records of ancient climates deduced from cores driven deep into the polar ice show that this has happened in the past Previous episodes of global warming at the end of ice ages have indeed developed a runaway character with enormous temperature rises of as much as 10C in 50 years There are a string of potential feedbacks associated with climate change nearly all of them likely to intensify the process One for example concerns the melting of the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean which climate models suggest will be gone by 2080 - or could even be gone considerably earlier than that

3 Positive feedback leads to rapid warmingJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfPlease allow one final comment The 6degC sensitivity (for doubled CO2) is valid for a specified change of greenhouse gases as the climate forcing That is relevant for human-made change of atmospheric composition and this sensitivity yields the correct answer for long-term climate change if actual greenhouse gas changes are used as the forcing mechanism However climate model scenarios for the future usually incorporate human-made emissions of greenhouse gases Atmospheric greenhouse gas amounts may be affected by feedbacks which thus alter expected climate change Greenhouse gas feedbacks are not idle speculation Paleoclimate records reveal times in the Earthrsquos history when global warming resulted in release of large amounts of methane to the atmosphere Potential sources of methane include methane hydrates lsquofrozenrsquo in ocean sediments and tundra which release methane in thawing Recent Arctic warming is causing release of methane from permafrost (Christensen et al 2004 Walter et al 2006) but not to a degree that has prevented near stabilization of atmospheric methane amount over the past several years

West Coast Publishing 7Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove 1 Atmospheric C02 levels are near a dangerous tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfRecent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm and likely less than that Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate albeit important adjustments to the CO2 limit Realization of how close the planet is to lsquotipping pointsrsquo with unacceptable consequences especially ice sheet disintegration with sea level rise out of humanityrsquos control has a bright side It implies an imperative we must find a way to keep the CO2 amount so low that it will also avert other detrimental effects that had begun to seem inevitable eg ocean acidification loss of most alpine glaciers and thus the water supply for millions of people and shifting of climatic zones with consequent extermination of species

2 The Earth is on the brink of a climate tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfCrystallizing scientific data and analyses reveal that the Earth is close to dangerous climate change to tipping points of the system with potential for irreversible deleterious effects This information derives in part from paleoclimate data ie the record of how climate changed in the past as well as from measurements being made now by satellites and in the field The Earthrsquos history shows that climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings Positive feedbacks predominate This has allowed the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states Huge natural climate changes from glacial to interglacial states have been driven by very weak very slow forcings and positive feedbacks Now humans are applying a far stronger forcing much more rapidly as we put back into the atmosphere in a geologic heartbeat fossil fuels that accumulated over millions of years Positive feedbacks are beginning to occur on a range of time scales

3 C02 levels are near a tipping pointmdashchanging course is key to human survivalJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies 2008 2008-2009 State of the Wild p 7-8Our home planet is dangerously near a tipping point at which human-made greenhouse gases reach a level where major climate changes can proceed mostly under their own momen- tum Warming will shift cli- matic zones by intensifying the hydrologic cycle affect- ing freshwater availability and human health We will see repeat- ed coastal tragedies associated with storms and continuously rising sea lev- els The implications are profound and the only resolution is for humans to move to a fundamentally different energy pathway within a decade Oth- erwise it will be too late for one-third of the worldrsquos animal and plant species and millions of the most vulnerable members of our own species We may be able to preserve the re- markable planet on which civilization developed but it will not be easy spe- cial interests are resistant to change and have inordinate power in our gov- ernments especially in the United States Understanding the nature and causes of climate change is essential to crafting solutions to our current crisis

4 Now is the crucial time to address climate changeJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfWe have solved or are solving those pollution problems at least in developed countries But we did not address them until they hit us with full force That approach to wait and see and fix the problems post facto unfortunately will not work in the case of global climate change On the contrary the inertia of the climate system the fact that much of the climate change due to gases already in the air is still lsquoin the pipelinersquo and the time required for economically-sensible phase-out of existing technologies together have a profound implication They imply that ignoring the climate problem at this time for even another decade would serve to lock in future catastrophic climatic change and impacts that will unfold during the remainder of this century and beyond (references A and B)

West Coast Publishing 8Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 9Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Qualified Sources 1 The scientific consensus is that warming is occurring and is human inducedNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego December 2004 Science p 5702Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science (2) Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change This is not the case The scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme IPCCs purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis for informed policy action primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature (3) In its most recent assessment IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earths climate is being affected by human activities Human activities are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents that absorb or scatter radiant energy [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations [p 21 in (4)] IPCC is not alone in its conclusions In recent years all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements For example the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions begins Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earths atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise [p 1 in (5)] The report explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes The IPCCs conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue [p 3 in (5)] Others agree The American Meteorological Society (6) the American Geophysical Union (7) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling

2 The IPCC is extremely credibleUnion of Concerned Scientists August 24 2007 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwucsusaorgglobal_warmingsciencethe-ipcchtmlAR4 will be the most comprehensive synthesis of climate change science to date Experts from more than 130 countries are contributing to this assessment which represents six years of work More than 450 lead authors have received input from more than 800 contributing authors and an additional 2500 experts reviewed the draft documents AR4 will comprise three sections or working groups that deal with the scientific basis of global warming (Working Group I) its consequences (Working Group II) and options for slowing the trend (Working Group III) The IPCC will release summaries of the three working group documents over the course of 2007 culminating in the publication of the final ldquosynthesis reportrdquo at the end of the year The inclusive process by which IPCC assessments are developed and accepted by its members ensures exceptional scientific credibility As such AR4 has the potential to play a key role in informing decision makers as they shape climate policies over the next several years

3 All reputable scientific organizations in the US agree with the warming hypothesisNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego Climate Change What It Means for Us Our Children and Our Grandchildren 2007 p 68In the past several years all of the major scientific bodies in the United States whose membershiprsquos expertise bears directly on the matter have issued reports or statements that confirm the IPCC conclusion One is the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001) which originated from a White House request Here is how it opens ldquoGreenhouse gases are accumulating in Earthrsquos atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to riserdquo (National Academy of Sciences 2001 1) The report explicitly addresses whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes ldquoThe IPCCrsquos conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issuerdquo (National National Academy of Sciences 2001 3) Other US scientific groups agree

West Coast Publishing 10Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 11Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Unchecked climate change will make most of the Earth uninhabitableMary Wood Professor of Law Morse Center for Law and Politics Resident Scholar University of Oregon School of Law 2007 Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review p 583-584If we do nothing to curb carbon emissions we will commit ourselves to a future that most Americans cannot even imagine Jim Hansen the leading climate scientist for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) presents the ten degree Fahrenheit scenario it will send fifty percent or more species into extinction That is equivalent to the mass extinction that occurred fifty-five million years ago In his words Life will survive but it will do so on a transformed planet A mere five-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase may cause an eighty foot rise in sea level Hansen points out In that case the United States would lose most East Coast cities Boston New York Philadelphia Washington and Miami indeed practically the entire state of Florida would be under water Fifty million people in the US live below that sea level I could go on detailing on how climate crisis will affect the lives of every human on Earth What I have mentioned is just the tip of the icebergmdasha phrase on its way out British commentator Mark Lynas au- thor of High Tide summarizes the Earths situation this way Let me put it simply if we go on emitting greenhouse gases at anything like the current rate most of the surface of the globe will be rendered uninhab- itable within the lifetimes of most readers of this article

2 Warming will cause global instability and trigger US isolationismDavid Stipp staff writer February 9 2004 Fortune accessed May 15 2008 httpmoneycnncommagazinesfortunefortune_archive20040209360120indexhtmFor planning purposes it makes sense to focus on a midrange case of abrupt change A century of cold dry windy weather across the Northern Hemisphere that suddenly came on 8200 years ago fits the bill--its severity fell between that of the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age The event is thought to have been triggered by a conveyor collapse after a time of rising temperatures not unlike todays global warming Suppose it recurred beginning in 2010 Here are some of the things that might happen by 2020 At first the changes are easily mistaken for normal weather variation--allowing skeptics to dismiss them as a blip of little importance and leaving policymakers and the public paralyzed with uncertainty But by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening The average temperature has fallen by up to five degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of North America and Asia and up to six degrees in parts of Europe (By comparison the average temperature over the North Atlantic during the last ice age was ten to 15 degrees lower than it is today) Massive droughts have begun in key agricultural regions The average annual rainfall has dropped by nearly 30 in northern Europe and its climate has become more like Siberias Violent storms are increasingly common as the conveyor becomes wobbly on its way to collapse A particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making coastal cities such as the Hague unlivable In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River area are breached disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south Megadroughts afflict the US especially in the southern states along with winds that are 15 stronger on average than they are now causing widespread dust storms and soil loss The US is better positioned to cope than most nations however thanks to its diverse growing climates wealth technology and abundant resources That has a downside though It magnifies the haves-vs-have-nots gap and fosters bellicose finger-pointing at America Turning inward the US effectively seeks to build a fortress around itself to preserve resources Borders are strengthened to hold back starving immigrants from Mexico South America and the Caribbean islands--waves of boat people pose especially grim problems

3 Abrupt climate change risks nuclear conflictPeter Schwartz et al former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomAs famine disease and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change many countriesrsquo needs will exceed their carrying capacity This will create a sense of desperation which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance Imagine eastern European countries struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food water and energy eyeing Russia whose population is already in decline for access to its grain minerals and energy supply Or picture Japan suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water supply eying Russiarsquos Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes Envision Pakistan India and China ndash all

West Coast Publishing 12Warming Impacts and Takeouts

armed with nuclear weapons ndash skirmishing at their borders over refugees access to shared rivers and arable land Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights ndash leading to conflicts at sea

West Coast Publishing 13Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Rapid climate change could drive most species to extinctionJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfThere are millions of species of plants and animals on Earth These species depend upon each other in a tangled web of interactions that humans are only beginning to fathom Each species lives and can survive only within a specific climatic zone When climate changes species migrate in an attempt to stay within their climatic niche However large rapid climate change can drive most of the species on the planet to extinction Geologic records indicate that mass extinctions with loss of more than half of existing species occurred several times in the Earthrsquos history New species developed but that process required hundreds of thousands even millions of years If we destroy a large portion of the species of creation those that have existed on Earth in recent millennia the Earth will be a far more desolate planet for as many generations of humanity as we can imagine

2 Global warming is the pre-eminent threat to global biodiversityJay Malcolm et al Professor of Forestry at the University of Toronto April 2006 Conservation Biology p 538Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale We used major vegetation types ( biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not and (4) different migration capabilities Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships In addition average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years Projected percent extinctions ranged from lt1 to 43 of the endemic biota (average 116) with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates in some scenarios however hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region Caribbean Indo-Burma Mediterranean Basin Southwest Australia and Tropical Andes where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planetrsquos biodiversity

3 Warming risks widespread species extinctionAlan Pounds et al with the Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation January 12 2006 Nature p 161Humans are altering the Earths climate and thus the workings of living systems including pathogens and their hosts Among the predicted outcomes is the extinction of many species but detecting such an effect is difficult against a backdrop of other changes especially habitat destruction One approach is to focus on organisms for which current rates of extinction exceed those expected from habitat loss Amphibians are a case in point Thousands of species have declined and hundreds are on the brink of extinction or have already vanished The Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA) lists 427 species as critically endangered including 122 species that are possibly extinct A majority of the former and nearly all of the latter have declined even in seemingly undisturbed environments The causes have remained unclear in part because of their complexity Although pathogens are implicated their relationship to environmental change is poorly understood Here we test the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis which predicts declines in unusually warm years but does not assume a particular disease or chain of events Recent studies have considered this idea1 yet data have not permitted a geographically broad test that examines landscape alteration global warming and climate fluctuations on the timescale of El Nintildeo Suffering widespread extinctions often despite habitat protection harlequin frogs (Atelopus) afford such a test A new database produced by 75 researchers documents the case in unprecedented detail owing to the nature of these members of the toad family (Bufonidae) Brightly coloured and active during the day

West Coast Publishing 14Warming Impacts and Takeouts

near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

West Coast Publishing 15Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 3Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic 1 Warming is human inducedDiana Liverman Professor at the School of Geography at the Oxford University Centre for the Environment February 2008 Global Environmental Change p 4Working Group I (WGI IPCC 2007) highlighted the unequivocal evidence that the world is warming and the attribution of much of this observed warming (and some other climate changes) to greenhouse gas emissions In terms of observed impacts the WGII conclusions with the greatest levels of confidence (nine in ten chance) are that recent warming is affecting terrestrial biological systems with polar and upward shifts in the range of many species and earlier timing of vegetation growth and animal breeding in spring (Chapter 1) These conclusions are based on meta-analytical studies of hundreds of ecosystem observations and are synthesised in a map (SPM-1) that shows the percent of ecosystem (together with other physical) changes in different world regions since 1970 consistent with a warming This map clearly shows a bias to Europe (where more than 95 of the data series were generated) and the urgent need for studies in the southern hemisphere and Polar Regions A rather laboured argument suggests that these impacts can be attributed to anthropogenic warming because they are consistent with WGI attribution of global temperature to increase emissions and with the direction of change expected as a response to warming because of spatial agreement between observed impacts and because of a modest number of modelling studies that show better simulations of climate impacts with anthropogenic forcing than without

2 Warming is due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissionsIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change November 17 2007 accessed May 16 2008 httpwwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf p 5Global atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years 22 Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 (379ppm) and CH4 (1774ppb) in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650000 years Global increases in CO 2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use with land-use change pro- viding another significant but smaller contribution It is very likely that the observed increase in CH 4 concentration is pre- dominantly due to agriculture and fossil fuel use CH 4 growth rates have declined since the early 1990s consistent with to- tal emissions (sum of anthropogenic and natural sources) be- ing nearly constant during this period The increase in N 2O concentration is primarily due to agriculture 22 There is very high confidence that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming6 22 Most of the observed increase in global average tempera- tures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentra- tions7 It is likely that there has been significant anthro- pogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent (except Antarctica) (Figure SPM4) 24

3 Studies show C02 is responsible for warmingJoseph Florence staff researcher for Earth Policy Institute July 2007 USA Today p 61Elevated temperatures primarily are due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere particularly carbon dioxide (C02) from the burning of fossil fuels Once released C02 traps heat that would otherwise escape back into space--and these carbon dioxide emissions have been on the rise since the start of the Industrial Revolution in 1760 Two recent reports demonstrate the exceptional levels of current global temperature and atmospheric C02 Using records stored in ice tree rings and fossils scientists have estimated that the Northern Hemisphere is warmer now than at any time in the past 1200 years Another study revealed that atmospheric levels of C02 and methane yet a different greenhouse gas are higher today than at any time in the A last 650000 years

4 Cosmic rays are not the cause of warmingT Sloan Lecturer in Physics at University of Lancaster and AW Wolfendale Lecturer in Physics at Durham University 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httparxivorgpdf07064294It has been claimed by others that observed temporal correlations of terrestrial cloud cover with the cosmic ray intensity are causal The possibility arises therefore of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming If true the implications would be very great We have examined this claim to look for evidence to corroborate it So far we have not found any and so our tentative conclusions are to doubt it Such correlations as appear are more

West Coast Publishing 4Warming Impacts and Takeouts

likely to be due to the small variations in solar irradiance which of course correlate with cosmic rays We estimate that less than 15 of the II-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2 of the warming over the last 35 years is due to this cause

West Coast Publishing 5Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Happens Quickly 1 Models underestimate the risk of rapid warmingErika Engelhaupt staff writer July 1 2007 Environmental Science amp Technology p 4488Following the latest projections by the UNrsquos Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) new research shows that models in the report underestimate some changes that are already under way Sea ice is melting and sea level is rising faster than models had predicted and one brake on warming the uptake of CO2 by oceans appears not to be working as well as scientists had thought Results published in Geophysi- cal Research Letters (2007 34 L09501) in May show that ice-free summers could be even more like- ly this century than estimated in Februaryrsquos IPCC report Julienne Stroeve of the National Snow and Ice Data Center led a group that analyzed nearly 60 years of sea ice records from satellites ships and airplanes concluding that ice has disappeared at an average rate of 78 per decade since 1953 com- pared with 25 per decade in computer simulations And the Southern Ocean is not exactly doing its part taking up less CO2mdash5ndash30 less per de- cademdashthan expected according to a study published online May 17 in Science (2007 doi 101126sci- ence1136188) Models hadnrsquot ac- counted for increased winds that push currents to bring deep car- bon to the surface where it perco- lates back into the atmosphere Stefan Rahmstorf a climatolo- gist at Potsdam University (Ger- many) points out that models tend to underestimate sea level rise too ldquoAs climatologists wersquore often under fire because of our pessi- mistic message and wersquore accused of overestimating the problemrdquo he says ldquoBut I think the evidence points to the oppositemdashwe may have been underestimating itrdquo

2 Models are too conservative in estimating the rate of warmingErika Engelhaupt staff writer July 1 2007 Environmental Science amp Technology p 4488But Rahmstorf says that model- ers might unwittingly make mod- els more conservative by applying ldquoone-sided filtersrdquo weeding out models that clearly overestimate the changes seen so far but hang- ing onto ones ldquowhere everything is too well behaved and stablerdquo In January Rahmstorf pub- lished sea-level-rise predictions in Science noting that the actual rise tracks the uppermost lim- its of 2001 IPCC projections De- spite the previous underestimate this yearrsquos IPCC report gave even smaller sea-level-rise projections partly because authors omitted any estimate of accelerating ice flow ldquoTherersquos absolutely no reason to assume sea level rise is going to be lower than previously thoughtrdquo Rahmstorf says The underestimates started to become clear last year when Eric Rignot of NASArsquos Jet Propul- sion Laboratory used new satel- lite techniques to track a decline in Greenlandrsquos ice Within months satellite results showed the Antarc- tic ice sheet losing mass too Be- fore those data came out scientists had assumed polar ice sheets were in balance for lack of better infor- mation In 2001 the IPCC said that loss of ice sheets leading to faster sea level rise was ldquovery unlikely during the 21st centuryrdquo The latest IPCC report abandons that posi- tion concluding that the Antarctic ice sheet is already contributing to sea level rise

3 Rapid climate change is impendingMike Tidwell director of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network MayJune 2008 Orion Magazine accessed May 14 2008 httpwwworionmagazineorgindexphparticlesarticle2956All of which means itrsquos time to face a fundamental truth the majority of the worldrsquos climate scientists have been totally wrong Theyrsquove failed us completely Not concerning the basics of global warming Of course the climate is changing Of course humans are driving the process through fossil fuel combustion and deforestation No what the scientists have been wrong aboutmdashand I mean really really wrongmdashis the speed at which itrsquos all occurring Our climate system isnrsquot just ldquochangingrdquo Itrsquos not just ldquowarmingrdquo Itrsquos snapping violently into a whole new regime right before our eyes A fantastic spasm of altered weather patterns is crashing down upon our heads right now The only question left for America is this can we snap along with the climate Can we as the worldrsquos biggest polluter create a grassroots political uprising that emerges as abruptly as a snap of the fingers A movement that demands the clean-energy revolution in the time we have left to save ourselves I think we can do it I hope we can do it Indeed the recent political ldquosnaprdquo in Australia where a devastating and unprecedented drought made climate change a central voting issue and so helped topple a Bush-like government of deniers should give us encouragement But time is running out fast for a similar transformation here

West Coast Publishing 6Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove 1 Positive feedbacks mean warming will be fast and violentMike Tidwell director of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network MayJune 2008 Orion Magazine accessed May 14 2008 httpwwworionmagazineorgindexphparticlesarticle2956Actually itrsquos the so-called feedback loops that have tripped up scientists so badly causing the experts to wildly misjudge the speed of the climate crash Having never witnessed a planet overheat before no one quite anticipated the geometric rate of change To cite one example when that brilliantly white Arctic ice melts to blue ocean it takes with it a huge measure of solar reflectivity which increases sunlight absorption and feeds more warmth back into the system amplifying everything dramatically And as northern forests across Canada continue to die en masse due to warming they switch from being net absorbers of CO2 to net emitters when forest decomposition sets in And as tundra melts all across Siberia it releases long-buried methane a greenhouse gas twenty times more powerful than even CO2 And so on and so on and so on Like the ear-splitting shriek when a microphone gets too close to its amplifier literally dozens of major feedback loops are screeching into place worldwide all at the same time ushering in the era of runaway climate change ldquoOnly in the past five years as researchers have learned more about the way our planet works have some come to the conclusion that changes probably wonrsquot be as smooth or as gradual as [previously] imaginedrdquo writes Fred Pearce in his new book With Speed and Violence Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change ldquoWe are in all probability already embarked on a roller coaster ride of lurching and sometimes brutal changerdquo

2 Positive feedbacks risk runaway warmingMichael McCarthy Environment editor May 18 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwindependentcoukopinioncommentators20michael-mccarthy-positive-feedback-may-advance-globa20l-warming-449320htmlThe fear of some climate scientists is that just such a positive feedback might occur with global warming in which the warming itself precipitates changes in the earths natural systems which themselves cause additional warming which then causes further changes and so on in an unstoppable acceleration This fear is well founded because records of ancient climates deduced from cores driven deep into the polar ice show that this has happened in the past Previous episodes of global warming at the end of ice ages have indeed developed a runaway character with enormous temperature rises of as much as 10C in 50 years There are a string of potential feedbacks associated with climate change nearly all of them likely to intensify the process One for example concerns the melting of the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean which climate models suggest will be gone by 2080 - or could even be gone considerably earlier than that

3 Positive feedback leads to rapid warmingJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfPlease allow one final comment The 6degC sensitivity (for doubled CO2) is valid for a specified change of greenhouse gases as the climate forcing That is relevant for human-made change of atmospheric composition and this sensitivity yields the correct answer for long-term climate change if actual greenhouse gas changes are used as the forcing mechanism However climate model scenarios for the future usually incorporate human-made emissions of greenhouse gases Atmospheric greenhouse gas amounts may be affected by feedbacks which thus alter expected climate change Greenhouse gas feedbacks are not idle speculation Paleoclimate records reveal times in the Earthrsquos history when global warming resulted in release of large amounts of methane to the atmosphere Potential sources of methane include methane hydrates lsquofrozenrsquo in ocean sediments and tundra which release methane in thawing Recent Arctic warming is causing release of methane from permafrost (Christensen et al 2004 Walter et al 2006) but not to a degree that has prevented near stabilization of atmospheric methane amount over the past several years

West Coast Publishing 7Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove 1 Atmospheric C02 levels are near a dangerous tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfRecent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm and likely less than that Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate albeit important adjustments to the CO2 limit Realization of how close the planet is to lsquotipping pointsrsquo with unacceptable consequences especially ice sheet disintegration with sea level rise out of humanityrsquos control has a bright side It implies an imperative we must find a way to keep the CO2 amount so low that it will also avert other detrimental effects that had begun to seem inevitable eg ocean acidification loss of most alpine glaciers and thus the water supply for millions of people and shifting of climatic zones with consequent extermination of species

2 The Earth is on the brink of a climate tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfCrystallizing scientific data and analyses reveal that the Earth is close to dangerous climate change to tipping points of the system with potential for irreversible deleterious effects This information derives in part from paleoclimate data ie the record of how climate changed in the past as well as from measurements being made now by satellites and in the field The Earthrsquos history shows that climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings Positive feedbacks predominate This has allowed the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states Huge natural climate changes from glacial to interglacial states have been driven by very weak very slow forcings and positive feedbacks Now humans are applying a far stronger forcing much more rapidly as we put back into the atmosphere in a geologic heartbeat fossil fuels that accumulated over millions of years Positive feedbacks are beginning to occur on a range of time scales

3 C02 levels are near a tipping pointmdashchanging course is key to human survivalJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies 2008 2008-2009 State of the Wild p 7-8Our home planet is dangerously near a tipping point at which human-made greenhouse gases reach a level where major climate changes can proceed mostly under their own momen- tum Warming will shift cli- matic zones by intensifying the hydrologic cycle affect- ing freshwater availability and human health We will see repeat- ed coastal tragedies associated with storms and continuously rising sea lev- els The implications are profound and the only resolution is for humans to move to a fundamentally different energy pathway within a decade Oth- erwise it will be too late for one-third of the worldrsquos animal and plant species and millions of the most vulnerable members of our own species We may be able to preserve the re- markable planet on which civilization developed but it will not be easy spe- cial interests are resistant to change and have inordinate power in our gov- ernments especially in the United States Understanding the nature and causes of climate change is essential to crafting solutions to our current crisis

4 Now is the crucial time to address climate changeJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfWe have solved or are solving those pollution problems at least in developed countries But we did not address them until they hit us with full force That approach to wait and see and fix the problems post facto unfortunately will not work in the case of global climate change On the contrary the inertia of the climate system the fact that much of the climate change due to gases already in the air is still lsquoin the pipelinersquo and the time required for economically-sensible phase-out of existing technologies together have a profound implication They imply that ignoring the climate problem at this time for even another decade would serve to lock in future catastrophic climatic change and impacts that will unfold during the remainder of this century and beyond (references A and B)

West Coast Publishing 8Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 9Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Qualified Sources 1 The scientific consensus is that warming is occurring and is human inducedNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego December 2004 Science p 5702Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science (2) Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change This is not the case The scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme IPCCs purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis for informed policy action primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature (3) In its most recent assessment IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earths climate is being affected by human activities Human activities are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents that absorb or scatter radiant energy [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations [p 21 in (4)] IPCC is not alone in its conclusions In recent years all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements For example the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions begins Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earths atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise [p 1 in (5)] The report explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes The IPCCs conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue [p 3 in (5)] Others agree The American Meteorological Society (6) the American Geophysical Union (7) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling

2 The IPCC is extremely credibleUnion of Concerned Scientists August 24 2007 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwucsusaorgglobal_warmingsciencethe-ipcchtmlAR4 will be the most comprehensive synthesis of climate change science to date Experts from more than 130 countries are contributing to this assessment which represents six years of work More than 450 lead authors have received input from more than 800 contributing authors and an additional 2500 experts reviewed the draft documents AR4 will comprise three sections or working groups that deal with the scientific basis of global warming (Working Group I) its consequences (Working Group II) and options for slowing the trend (Working Group III) The IPCC will release summaries of the three working group documents over the course of 2007 culminating in the publication of the final ldquosynthesis reportrdquo at the end of the year The inclusive process by which IPCC assessments are developed and accepted by its members ensures exceptional scientific credibility As such AR4 has the potential to play a key role in informing decision makers as they shape climate policies over the next several years

3 All reputable scientific organizations in the US agree with the warming hypothesisNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego Climate Change What It Means for Us Our Children and Our Grandchildren 2007 p 68In the past several years all of the major scientific bodies in the United States whose membershiprsquos expertise bears directly on the matter have issued reports or statements that confirm the IPCC conclusion One is the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001) which originated from a White House request Here is how it opens ldquoGreenhouse gases are accumulating in Earthrsquos atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to riserdquo (National Academy of Sciences 2001 1) The report explicitly addresses whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes ldquoThe IPCCrsquos conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issuerdquo (National National Academy of Sciences 2001 3) Other US scientific groups agree

West Coast Publishing 10Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 11Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Unchecked climate change will make most of the Earth uninhabitableMary Wood Professor of Law Morse Center for Law and Politics Resident Scholar University of Oregon School of Law 2007 Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review p 583-584If we do nothing to curb carbon emissions we will commit ourselves to a future that most Americans cannot even imagine Jim Hansen the leading climate scientist for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) presents the ten degree Fahrenheit scenario it will send fifty percent or more species into extinction That is equivalent to the mass extinction that occurred fifty-five million years ago In his words Life will survive but it will do so on a transformed planet A mere five-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase may cause an eighty foot rise in sea level Hansen points out In that case the United States would lose most East Coast cities Boston New York Philadelphia Washington and Miami indeed practically the entire state of Florida would be under water Fifty million people in the US live below that sea level I could go on detailing on how climate crisis will affect the lives of every human on Earth What I have mentioned is just the tip of the icebergmdasha phrase on its way out British commentator Mark Lynas au- thor of High Tide summarizes the Earths situation this way Let me put it simply if we go on emitting greenhouse gases at anything like the current rate most of the surface of the globe will be rendered uninhab- itable within the lifetimes of most readers of this article

2 Warming will cause global instability and trigger US isolationismDavid Stipp staff writer February 9 2004 Fortune accessed May 15 2008 httpmoneycnncommagazinesfortunefortune_archive20040209360120indexhtmFor planning purposes it makes sense to focus on a midrange case of abrupt change A century of cold dry windy weather across the Northern Hemisphere that suddenly came on 8200 years ago fits the bill--its severity fell between that of the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age The event is thought to have been triggered by a conveyor collapse after a time of rising temperatures not unlike todays global warming Suppose it recurred beginning in 2010 Here are some of the things that might happen by 2020 At first the changes are easily mistaken for normal weather variation--allowing skeptics to dismiss them as a blip of little importance and leaving policymakers and the public paralyzed with uncertainty But by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening The average temperature has fallen by up to five degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of North America and Asia and up to six degrees in parts of Europe (By comparison the average temperature over the North Atlantic during the last ice age was ten to 15 degrees lower than it is today) Massive droughts have begun in key agricultural regions The average annual rainfall has dropped by nearly 30 in northern Europe and its climate has become more like Siberias Violent storms are increasingly common as the conveyor becomes wobbly on its way to collapse A particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making coastal cities such as the Hague unlivable In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River area are breached disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south Megadroughts afflict the US especially in the southern states along with winds that are 15 stronger on average than they are now causing widespread dust storms and soil loss The US is better positioned to cope than most nations however thanks to its diverse growing climates wealth technology and abundant resources That has a downside though It magnifies the haves-vs-have-nots gap and fosters bellicose finger-pointing at America Turning inward the US effectively seeks to build a fortress around itself to preserve resources Borders are strengthened to hold back starving immigrants from Mexico South America and the Caribbean islands--waves of boat people pose especially grim problems

3 Abrupt climate change risks nuclear conflictPeter Schwartz et al former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomAs famine disease and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change many countriesrsquo needs will exceed their carrying capacity This will create a sense of desperation which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance Imagine eastern European countries struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food water and energy eyeing Russia whose population is already in decline for access to its grain minerals and energy supply Or picture Japan suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water supply eying Russiarsquos Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes Envision Pakistan India and China ndash all

West Coast Publishing 12Warming Impacts and Takeouts

armed with nuclear weapons ndash skirmishing at their borders over refugees access to shared rivers and arable land Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights ndash leading to conflicts at sea

West Coast Publishing 13Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Rapid climate change could drive most species to extinctionJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfThere are millions of species of plants and animals on Earth These species depend upon each other in a tangled web of interactions that humans are only beginning to fathom Each species lives and can survive only within a specific climatic zone When climate changes species migrate in an attempt to stay within their climatic niche However large rapid climate change can drive most of the species on the planet to extinction Geologic records indicate that mass extinctions with loss of more than half of existing species occurred several times in the Earthrsquos history New species developed but that process required hundreds of thousands even millions of years If we destroy a large portion of the species of creation those that have existed on Earth in recent millennia the Earth will be a far more desolate planet for as many generations of humanity as we can imagine

2 Global warming is the pre-eminent threat to global biodiversityJay Malcolm et al Professor of Forestry at the University of Toronto April 2006 Conservation Biology p 538Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale We used major vegetation types ( biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not and (4) different migration capabilities Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships In addition average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years Projected percent extinctions ranged from lt1 to 43 of the endemic biota (average 116) with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates in some scenarios however hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region Caribbean Indo-Burma Mediterranean Basin Southwest Australia and Tropical Andes where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planetrsquos biodiversity

3 Warming risks widespread species extinctionAlan Pounds et al with the Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation January 12 2006 Nature p 161Humans are altering the Earths climate and thus the workings of living systems including pathogens and their hosts Among the predicted outcomes is the extinction of many species but detecting such an effect is difficult against a backdrop of other changes especially habitat destruction One approach is to focus on organisms for which current rates of extinction exceed those expected from habitat loss Amphibians are a case in point Thousands of species have declined and hundreds are on the brink of extinction or have already vanished The Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA) lists 427 species as critically endangered including 122 species that are possibly extinct A majority of the former and nearly all of the latter have declined even in seemingly undisturbed environments The causes have remained unclear in part because of their complexity Although pathogens are implicated their relationship to environmental change is poorly understood Here we test the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis which predicts declines in unusually warm years but does not assume a particular disease or chain of events Recent studies have considered this idea1 yet data have not permitted a geographically broad test that examines landscape alteration global warming and climate fluctuations on the timescale of El Nintildeo Suffering widespread extinctions often despite habitat protection harlequin frogs (Atelopus) afford such a test A new database produced by 75 researchers documents the case in unprecedented detail owing to the nature of these members of the toad family (Bufonidae) Brightly coloured and active during the day

West Coast Publishing 14Warming Impacts and Takeouts

near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

West Coast Publishing 15Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 4Warming Impacts and Takeouts

likely to be due to the small variations in solar irradiance which of course correlate with cosmic rays We estimate that less than 15 of the II-year cycle warming variations are due to cosmic rays and less than 2 of the warming over the last 35 years is due to this cause

West Coast Publishing 5Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Happens Quickly 1 Models underestimate the risk of rapid warmingErika Engelhaupt staff writer July 1 2007 Environmental Science amp Technology p 4488Following the latest projections by the UNrsquos Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) new research shows that models in the report underestimate some changes that are already under way Sea ice is melting and sea level is rising faster than models had predicted and one brake on warming the uptake of CO2 by oceans appears not to be working as well as scientists had thought Results published in Geophysi- cal Research Letters (2007 34 L09501) in May show that ice-free summers could be even more like- ly this century than estimated in Februaryrsquos IPCC report Julienne Stroeve of the National Snow and Ice Data Center led a group that analyzed nearly 60 years of sea ice records from satellites ships and airplanes concluding that ice has disappeared at an average rate of 78 per decade since 1953 com- pared with 25 per decade in computer simulations And the Southern Ocean is not exactly doing its part taking up less CO2mdash5ndash30 less per de- cademdashthan expected according to a study published online May 17 in Science (2007 doi 101126sci- ence1136188) Models hadnrsquot ac- counted for increased winds that push currents to bring deep car- bon to the surface where it perco- lates back into the atmosphere Stefan Rahmstorf a climatolo- gist at Potsdam University (Ger- many) points out that models tend to underestimate sea level rise too ldquoAs climatologists wersquore often under fire because of our pessi- mistic message and wersquore accused of overestimating the problemrdquo he says ldquoBut I think the evidence points to the oppositemdashwe may have been underestimating itrdquo

2 Models are too conservative in estimating the rate of warmingErika Engelhaupt staff writer July 1 2007 Environmental Science amp Technology p 4488But Rahmstorf says that model- ers might unwittingly make mod- els more conservative by applying ldquoone-sided filtersrdquo weeding out models that clearly overestimate the changes seen so far but hang- ing onto ones ldquowhere everything is too well behaved and stablerdquo In January Rahmstorf pub- lished sea-level-rise predictions in Science noting that the actual rise tracks the uppermost lim- its of 2001 IPCC projections De- spite the previous underestimate this yearrsquos IPCC report gave even smaller sea-level-rise projections partly because authors omitted any estimate of accelerating ice flow ldquoTherersquos absolutely no reason to assume sea level rise is going to be lower than previously thoughtrdquo Rahmstorf says The underestimates started to become clear last year when Eric Rignot of NASArsquos Jet Propul- sion Laboratory used new satel- lite techniques to track a decline in Greenlandrsquos ice Within months satellite results showed the Antarc- tic ice sheet losing mass too Be- fore those data came out scientists had assumed polar ice sheets were in balance for lack of better infor- mation In 2001 the IPCC said that loss of ice sheets leading to faster sea level rise was ldquovery unlikely during the 21st centuryrdquo The latest IPCC report abandons that posi- tion concluding that the Antarctic ice sheet is already contributing to sea level rise

3 Rapid climate change is impendingMike Tidwell director of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network MayJune 2008 Orion Magazine accessed May 14 2008 httpwwworionmagazineorgindexphparticlesarticle2956All of which means itrsquos time to face a fundamental truth the majority of the worldrsquos climate scientists have been totally wrong Theyrsquove failed us completely Not concerning the basics of global warming Of course the climate is changing Of course humans are driving the process through fossil fuel combustion and deforestation No what the scientists have been wrong aboutmdashand I mean really really wrongmdashis the speed at which itrsquos all occurring Our climate system isnrsquot just ldquochangingrdquo Itrsquos not just ldquowarmingrdquo Itrsquos snapping violently into a whole new regime right before our eyes A fantastic spasm of altered weather patterns is crashing down upon our heads right now The only question left for America is this can we snap along with the climate Can we as the worldrsquos biggest polluter create a grassroots political uprising that emerges as abruptly as a snap of the fingers A movement that demands the clean-energy revolution in the time we have left to save ourselves I think we can do it I hope we can do it Indeed the recent political ldquosnaprdquo in Australia where a devastating and unprecedented drought made climate change a central voting issue and so helped topple a Bush-like government of deniers should give us encouragement But time is running out fast for a similar transformation here

West Coast Publishing 6Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove 1 Positive feedbacks mean warming will be fast and violentMike Tidwell director of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network MayJune 2008 Orion Magazine accessed May 14 2008 httpwwworionmagazineorgindexphparticlesarticle2956Actually itrsquos the so-called feedback loops that have tripped up scientists so badly causing the experts to wildly misjudge the speed of the climate crash Having never witnessed a planet overheat before no one quite anticipated the geometric rate of change To cite one example when that brilliantly white Arctic ice melts to blue ocean it takes with it a huge measure of solar reflectivity which increases sunlight absorption and feeds more warmth back into the system amplifying everything dramatically And as northern forests across Canada continue to die en masse due to warming they switch from being net absorbers of CO2 to net emitters when forest decomposition sets in And as tundra melts all across Siberia it releases long-buried methane a greenhouse gas twenty times more powerful than even CO2 And so on and so on and so on Like the ear-splitting shriek when a microphone gets too close to its amplifier literally dozens of major feedback loops are screeching into place worldwide all at the same time ushering in the era of runaway climate change ldquoOnly in the past five years as researchers have learned more about the way our planet works have some come to the conclusion that changes probably wonrsquot be as smooth or as gradual as [previously] imaginedrdquo writes Fred Pearce in his new book With Speed and Violence Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change ldquoWe are in all probability already embarked on a roller coaster ride of lurching and sometimes brutal changerdquo

2 Positive feedbacks risk runaway warmingMichael McCarthy Environment editor May 18 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwindependentcoukopinioncommentators20michael-mccarthy-positive-feedback-may-advance-globa20l-warming-449320htmlThe fear of some climate scientists is that just such a positive feedback might occur with global warming in which the warming itself precipitates changes in the earths natural systems which themselves cause additional warming which then causes further changes and so on in an unstoppable acceleration This fear is well founded because records of ancient climates deduced from cores driven deep into the polar ice show that this has happened in the past Previous episodes of global warming at the end of ice ages have indeed developed a runaway character with enormous temperature rises of as much as 10C in 50 years There are a string of potential feedbacks associated with climate change nearly all of them likely to intensify the process One for example concerns the melting of the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean which climate models suggest will be gone by 2080 - or could even be gone considerably earlier than that

3 Positive feedback leads to rapid warmingJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfPlease allow one final comment The 6degC sensitivity (for doubled CO2) is valid for a specified change of greenhouse gases as the climate forcing That is relevant for human-made change of atmospheric composition and this sensitivity yields the correct answer for long-term climate change if actual greenhouse gas changes are used as the forcing mechanism However climate model scenarios for the future usually incorporate human-made emissions of greenhouse gases Atmospheric greenhouse gas amounts may be affected by feedbacks which thus alter expected climate change Greenhouse gas feedbacks are not idle speculation Paleoclimate records reveal times in the Earthrsquos history when global warming resulted in release of large amounts of methane to the atmosphere Potential sources of methane include methane hydrates lsquofrozenrsquo in ocean sediments and tundra which release methane in thawing Recent Arctic warming is causing release of methane from permafrost (Christensen et al 2004 Walter et al 2006) but not to a degree that has prevented near stabilization of atmospheric methane amount over the past several years

West Coast Publishing 7Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove 1 Atmospheric C02 levels are near a dangerous tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfRecent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm and likely less than that Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate albeit important adjustments to the CO2 limit Realization of how close the planet is to lsquotipping pointsrsquo with unacceptable consequences especially ice sheet disintegration with sea level rise out of humanityrsquos control has a bright side It implies an imperative we must find a way to keep the CO2 amount so low that it will also avert other detrimental effects that had begun to seem inevitable eg ocean acidification loss of most alpine glaciers and thus the water supply for millions of people and shifting of climatic zones with consequent extermination of species

2 The Earth is on the brink of a climate tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfCrystallizing scientific data and analyses reveal that the Earth is close to dangerous climate change to tipping points of the system with potential for irreversible deleterious effects This information derives in part from paleoclimate data ie the record of how climate changed in the past as well as from measurements being made now by satellites and in the field The Earthrsquos history shows that climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings Positive feedbacks predominate This has allowed the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states Huge natural climate changes from glacial to interglacial states have been driven by very weak very slow forcings and positive feedbacks Now humans are applying a far stronger forcing much more rapidly as we put back into the atmosphere in a geologic heartbeat fossil fuels that accumulated over millions of years Positive feedbacks are beginning to occur on a range of time scales

3 C02 levels are near a tipping pointmdashchanging course is key to human survivalJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies 2008 2008-2009 State of the Wild p 7-8Our home planet is dangerously near a tipping point at which human-made greenhouse gases reach a level where major climate changes can proceed mostly under their own momen- tum Warming will shift cli- matic zones by intensifying the hydrologic cycle affect- ing freshwater availability and human health We will see repeat- ed coastal tragedies associated with storms and continuously rising sea lev- els The implications are profound and the only resolution is for humans to move to a fundamentally different energy pathway within a decade Oth- erwise it will be too late for one-third of the worldrsquos animal and plant species and millions of the most vulnerable members of our own species We may be able to preserve the re- markable planet on which civilization developed but it will not be easy spe- cial interests are resistant to change and have inordinate power in our gov- ernments especially in the United States Understanding the nature and causes of climate change is essential to crafting solutions to our current crisis

4 Now is the crucial time to address climate changeJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfWe have solved or are solving those pollution problems at least in developed countries But we did not address them until they hit us with full force That approach to wait and see and fix the problems post facto unfortunately will not work in the case of global climate change On the contrary the inertia of the climate system the fact that much of the climate change due to gases already in the air is still lsquoin the pipelinersquo and the time required for economically-sensible phase-out of existing technologies together have a profound implication They imply that ignoring the climate problem at this time for even another decade would serve to lock in future catastrophic climatic change and impacts that will unfold during the remainder of this century and beyond (references A and B)

West Coast Publishing 8Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 9Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Qualified Sources 1 The scientific consensus is that warming is occurring and is human inducedNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego December 2004 Science p 5702Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science (2) Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change This is not the case The scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme IPCCs purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis for informed policy action primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature (3) In its most recent assessment IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earths climate is being affected by human activities Human activities are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents that absorb or scatter radiant energy [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations [p 21 in (4)] IPCC is not alone in its conclusions In recent years all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements For example the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions begins Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earths atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise [p 1 in (5)] The report explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes The IPCCs conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue [p 3 in (5)] Others agree The American Meteorological Society (6) the American Geophysical Union (7) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling

2 The IPCC is extremely credibleUnion of Concerned Scientists August 24 2007 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwucsusaorgglobal_warmingsciencethe-ipcchtmlAR4 will be the most comprehensive synthesis of climate change science to date Experts from more than 130 countries are contributing to this assessment which represents six years of work More than 450 lead authors have received input from more than 800 contributing authors and an additional 2500 experts reviewed the draft documents AR4 will comprise three sections or working groups that deal with the scientific basis of global warming (Working Group I) its consequences (Working Group II) and options for slowing the trend (Working Group III) The IPCC will release summaries of the three working group documents over the course of 2007 culminating in the publication of the final ldquosynthesis reportrdquo at the end of the year The inclusive process by which IPCC assessments are developed and accepted by its members ensures exceptional scientific credibility As such AR4 has the potential to play a key role in informing decision makers as they shape climate policies over the next several years

3 All reputable scientific organizations in the US agree with the warming hypothesisNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego Climate Change What It Means for Us Our Children and Our Grandchildren 2007 p 68In the past several years all of the major scientific bodies in the United States whose membershiprsquos expertise bears directly on the matter have issued reports or statements that confirm the IPCC conclusion One is the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001) which originated from a White House request Here is how it opens ldquoGreenhouse gases are accumulating in Earthrsquos atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to riserdquo (National Academy of Sciences 2001 1) The report explicitly addresses whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes ldquoThe IPCCrsquos conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issuerdquo (National National Academy of Sciences 2001 3) Other US scientific groups agree

West Coast Publishing 10Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 11Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Unchecked climate change will make most of the Earth uninhabitableMary Wood Professor of Law Morse Center for Law and Politics Resident Scholar University of Oregon School of Law 2007 Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review p 583-584If we do nothing to curb carbon emissions we will commit ourselves to a future that most Americans cannot even imagine Jim Hansen the leading climate scientist for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) presents the ten degree Fahrenheit scenario it will send fifty percent or more species into extinction That is equivalent to the mass extinction that occurred fifty-five million years ago In his words Life will survive but it will do so on a transformed planet A mere five-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase may cause an eighty foot rise in sea level Hansen points out In that case the United States would lose most East Coast cities Boston New York Philadelphia Washington and Miami indeed practically the entire state of Florida would be under water Fifty million people in the US live below that sea level I could go on detailing on how climate crisis will affect the lives of every human on Earth What I have mentioned is just the tip of the icebergmdasha phrase on its way out British commentator Mark Lynas au- thor of High Tide summarizes the Earths situation this way Let me put it simply if we go on emitting greenhouse gases at anything like the current rate most of the surface of the globe will be rendered uninhab- itable within the lifetimes of most readers of this article

2 Warming will cause global instability and trigger US isolationismDavid Stipp staff writer February 9 2004 Fortune accessed May 15 2008 httpmoneycnncommagazinesfortunefortune_archive20040209360120indexhtmFor planning purposes it makes sense to focus on a midrange case of abrupt change A century of cold dry windy weather across the Northern Hemisphere that suddenly came on 8200 years ago fits the bill--its severity fell between that of the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age The event is thought to have been triggered by a conveyor collapse after a time of rising temperatures not unlike todays global warming Suppose it recurred beginning in 2010 Here are some of the things that might happen by 2020 At first the changes are easily mistaken for normal weather variation--allowing skeptics to dismiss them as a blip of little importance and leaving policymakers and the public paralyzed with uncertainty But by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening The average temperature has fallen by up to five degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of North America and Asia and up to six degrees in parts of Europe (By comparison the average temperature over the North Atlantic during the last ice age was ten to 15 degrees lower than it is today) Massive droughts have begun in key agricultural regions The average annual rainfall has dropped by nearly 30 in northern Europe and its climate has become more like Siberias Violent storms are increasingly common as the conveyor becomes wobbly on its way to collapse A particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making coastal cities such as the Hague unlivable In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River area are breached disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south Megadroughts afflict the US especially in the southern states along with winds that are 15 stronger on average than they are now causing widespread dust storms and soil loss The US is better positioned to cope than most nations however thanks to its diverse growing climates wealth technology and abundant resources That has a downside though It magnifies the haves-vs-have-nots gap and fosters bellicose finger-pointing at America Turning inward the US effectively seeks to build a fortress around itself to preserve resources Borders are strengthened to hold back starving immigrants from Mexico South America and the Caribbean islands--waves of boat people pose especially grim problems

3 Abrupt climate change risks nuclear conflictPeter Schwartz et al former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomAs famine disease and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change many countriesrsquo needs will exceed their carrying capacity This will create a sense of desperation which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance Imagine eastern European countries struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food water and energy eyeing Russia whose population is already in decline for access to its grain minerals and energy supply Or picture Japan suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water supply eying Russiarsquos Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes Envision Pakistan India and China ndash all

West Coast Publishing 12Warming Impacts and Takeouts

armed with nuclear weapons ndash skirmishing at their borders over refugees access to shared rivers and arable land Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights ndash leading to conflicts at sea

West Coast Publishing 13Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Rapid climate change could drive most species to extinctionJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfThere are millions of species of plants and animals on Earth These species depend upon each other in a tangled web of interactions that humans are only beginning to fathom Each species lives and can survive only within a specific climatic zone When climate changes species migrate in an attempt to stay within their climatic niche However large rapid climate change can drive most of the species on the planet to extinction Geologic records indicate that mass extinctions with loss of more than half of existing species occurred several times in the Earthrsquos history New species developed but that process required hundreds of thousands even millions of years If we destroy a large portion of the species of creation those that have existed on Earth in recent millennia the Earth will be a far more desolate planet for as many generations of humanity as we can imagine

2 Global warming is the pre-eminent threat to global biodiversityJay Malcolm et al Professor of Forestry at the University of Toronto April 2006 Conservation Biology p 538Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale We used major vegetation types ( biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not and (4) different migration capabilities Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships In addition average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years Projected percent extinctions ranged from lt1 to 43 of the endemic biota (average 116) with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates in some scenarios however hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region Caribbean Indo-Burma Mediterranean Basin Southwest Australia and Tropical Andes where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planetrsquos biodiversity

3 Warming risks widespread species extinctionAlan Pounds et al with the Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation January 12 2006 Nature p 161Humans are altering the Earths climate and thus the workings of living systems including pathogens and their hosts Among the predicted outcomes is the extinction of many species but detecting such an effect is difficult against a backdrop of other changes especially habitat destruction One approach is to focus on organisms for which current rates of extinction exceed those expected from habitat loss Amphibians are a case in point Thousands of species have declined and hundreds are on the brink of extinction or have already vanished The Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA) lists 427 species as critically endangered including 122 species that are possibly extinct A majority of the former and nearly all of the latter have declined even in seemingly undisturbed environments The causes have remained unclear in part because of their complexity Although pathogens are implicated their relationship to environmental change is poorly understood Here we test the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis which predicts declines in unusually warm years but does not assume a particular disease or chain of events Recent studies have considered this idea1 yet data have not permitted a geographically broad test that examines landscape alteration global warming and climate fluctuations on the timescale of El Nintildeo Suffering widespread extinctions often despite habitat protection harlequin frogs (Atelopus) afford such a test A new database produced by 75 researchers documents the case in unprecedented detail owing to the nature of these members of the toad family (Bufonidae) Brightly coloured and active during the day

West Coast Publishing 14Warming Impacts and Takeouts

near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

West Coast Publishing 15Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

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for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

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A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 5Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Happens Quickly 1 Models underestimate the risk of rapid warmingErika Engelhaupt staff writer July 1 2007 Environmental Science amp Technology p 4488Following the latest projections by the UNrsquos Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) new research shows that models in the report underestimate some changes that are already under way Sea ice is melting and sea level is rising faster than models had predicted and one brake on warming the uptake of CO2 by oceans appears not to be working as well as scientists had thought Results published in Geophysi- cal Research Letters (2007 34 L09501) in May show that ice-free summers could be even more like- ly this century than estimated in Februaryrsquos IPCC report Julienne Stroeve of the National Snow and Ice Data Center led a group that analyzed nearly 60 years of sea ice records from satellites ships and airplanes concluding that ice has disappeared at an average rate of 78 per decade since 1953 com- pared with 25 per decade in computer simulations And the Southern Ocean is not exactly doing its part taking up less CO2mdash5ndash30 less per de- cademdashthan expected according to a study published online May 17 in Science (2007 doi 101126sci- ence1136188) Models hadnrsquot ac- counted for increased winds that push currents to bring deep car- bon to the surface where it perco- lates back into the atmosphere Stefan Rahmstorf a climatolo- gist at Potsdam University (Ger- many) points out that models tend to underestimate sea level rise too ldquoAs climatologists wersquore often under fire because of our pessi- mistic message and wersquore accused of overestimating the problemrdquo he says ldquoBut I think the evidence points to the oppositemdashwe may have been underestimating itrdquo

2 Models are too conservative in estimating the rate of warmingErika Engelhaupt staff writer July 1 2007 Environmental Science amp Technology p 4488But Rahmstorf says that model- ers might unwittingly make mod- els more conservative by applying ldquoone-sided filtersrdquo weeding out models that clearly overestimate the changes seen so far but hang- ing onto ones ldquowhere everything is too well behaved and stablerdquo In January Rahmstorf pub- lished sea-level-rise predictions in Science noting that the actual rise tracks the uppermost lim- its of 2001 IPCC projections De- spite the previous underestimate this yearrsquos IPCC report gave even smaller sea-level-rise projections partly because authors omitted any estimate of accelerating ice flow ldquoTherersquos absolutely no reason to assume sea level rise is going to be lower than previously thoughtrdquo Rahmstorf says The underestimates started to become clear last year when Eric Rignot of NASArsquos Jet Propul- sion Laboratory used new satel- lite techniques to track a decline in Greenlandrsquos ice Within months satellite results showed the Antarc- tic ice sheet losing mass too Be- fore those data came out scientists had assumed polar ice sheets were in balance for lack of better infor- mation In 2001 the IPCC said that loss of ice sheets leading to faster sea level rise was ldquovery unlikely during the 21st centuryrdquo The latest IPCC report abandons that posi- tion concluding that the Antarctic ice sheet is already contributing to sea level rise

3 Rapid climate change is impendingMike Tidwell director of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network MayJune 2008 Orion Magazine accessed May 14 2008 httpwwworionmagazineorgindexphparticlesarticle2956All of which means itrsquos time to face a fundamental truth the majority of the worldrsquos climate scientists have been totally wrong Theyrsquove failed us completely Not concerning the basics of global warming Of course the climate is changing Of course humans are driving the process through fossil fuel combustion and deforestation No what the scientists have been wrong aboutmdashand I mean really really wrongmdashis the speed at which itrsquos all occurring Our climate system isnrsquot just ldquochangingrdquo Itrsquos not just ldquowarmingrdquo Itrsquos snapping violently into a whole new regime right before our eyes A fantastic spasm of altered weather patterns is crashing down upon our heads right now The only question left for America is this can we snap along with the climate Can we as the worldrsquos biggest polluter create a grassroots political uprising that emerges as abruptly as a snap of the fingers A movement that demands the clean-energy revolution in the time we have left to save ourselves I think we can do it I hope we can do it Indeed the recent political ldquosnaprdquo in Australia where a devastating and unprecedented drought made climate change a central voting issue and so helped topple a Bush-like government of deniers should give us encouragement But time is running out fast for a similar transformation here

West Coast Publishing 6Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove 1 Positive feedbacks mean warming will be fast and violentMike Tidwell director of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network MayJune 2008 Orion Magazine accessed May 14 2008 httpwwworionmagazineorgindexphparticlesarticle2956Actually itrsquos the so-called feedback loops that have tripped up scientists so badly causing the experts to wildly misjudge the speed of the climate crash Having never witnessed a planet overheat before no one quite anticipated the geometric rate of change To cite one example when that brilliantly white Arctic ice melts to blue ocean it takes with it a huge measure of solar reflectivity which increases sunlight absorption and feeds more warmth back into the system amplifying everything dramatically And as northern forests across Canada continue to die en masse due to warming they switch from being net absorbers of CO2 to net emitters when forest decomposition sets in And as tundra melts all across Siberia it releases long-buried methane a greenhouse gas twenty times more powerful than even CO2 And so on and so on and so on Like the ear-splitting shriek when a microphone gets too close to its amplifier literally dozens of major feedback loops are screeching into place worldwide all at the same time ushering in the era of runaway climate change ldquoOnly in the past five years as researchers have learned more about the way our planet works have some come to the conclusion that changes probably wonrsquot be as smooth or as gradual as [previously] imaginedrdquo writes Fred Pearce in his new book With Speed and Violence Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change ldquoWe are in all probability already embarked on a roller coaster ride of lurching and sometimes brutal changerdquo

2 Positive feedbacks risk runaway warmingMichael McCarthy Environment editor May 18 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwindependentcoukopinioncommentators20michael-mccarthy-positive-feedback-may-advance-globa20l-warming-449320htmlThe fear of some climate scientists is that just such a positive feedback might occur with global warming in which the warming itself precipitates changes in the earths natural systems which themselves cause additional warming which then causes further changes and so on in an unstoppable acceleration This fear is well founded because records of ancient climates deduced from cores driven deep into the polar ice show that this has happened in the past Previous episodes of global warming at the end of ice ages have indeed developed a runaway character with enormous temperature rises of as much as 10C in 50 years There are a string of potential feedbacks associated with climate change nearly all of them likely to intensify the process One for example concerns the melting of the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean which climate models suggest will be gone by 2080 - or could even be gone considerably earlier than that

3 Positive feedback leads to rapid warmingJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfPlease allow one final comment The 6degC sensitivity (for doubled CO2) is valid for a specified change of greenhouse gases as the climate forcing That is relevant for human-made change of atmospheric composition and this sensitivity yields the correct answer for long-term climate change if actual greenhouse gas changes are used as the forcing mechanism However climate model scenarios for the future usually incorporate human-made emissions of greenhouse gases Atmospheric greenhouse gas amounts may be affected by feedbacks which thus alter expected climate change Greenhouse gas feedbacks are not idle speculation Paleoclimate records reveal times in the Earthrsquos history when global warming resulted in release of large amounts of methane to the atmosphere Potential sources of methane include methane hydrates lsquofrozenrsquo in ocean sediments and tundra which release methane in thawing Recent Arctic warming is causing release of methane from permafrost (Christensen et al 2004 Walter et al 2006) but not to a degree that has prevented near stabilization of atmospheric methane amount over the past several years

West Coast Publishing 7Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove 1 Atmospheric C02 levels are near a dangerous tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfRecent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm and likely less than that Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate albeit important adjustments to the CO2 limit Realization of how close the planet is to lsquotipping pointsrsquo with unacceptable consequences especially ice sheet disintegration with sea level rise out of humanityrsquos control has a bright side It implies an imperative we must find a way to keep the CO2 amount so low that it will also avert other detrimental effects that had begun to seem inevitable eg ocean acidification loss of most alpine glaciers and thus the water supply for millions of people and shifting of climatic zones with consequent extermination of species

2 The Earth is on the brink of a climate tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfCrystallizing scientific data and analyses reveal that the Earth is close to dangerous climate change to tipping points of the system with potential for irreversible deleterious effects This information derives in part from paleoclimate data ie the record of how climate changed in the past as well as from measurements being made now by satellites and in the field The Earthrsquos history shows that climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings Positive feedbacks predominate This has allowed the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states Huge natural climate changes from glacial to interglacial states have been driven by very weak very slow forcings and positive feedbacks Now humans are applying a far stronger forcing much more rapidly as we put back into the atmosphere in a geologic heartbeat fossil fuels that accumulated over millions of years Positive feedbacks are beginning to occur on a range of time scales

3 C02 levels are near a tipping pointmdashchanging course is key to human survivalJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies 2008 2008-2009 State of the Wild p 7-8Our home planet is dangerously near a tipping point at which human-made greenhouse gases reach a level where major climate changes can proceed mostly under their own momen- tum Warming will shift cli- matic zones by intensifying the hydrologic cycle affect- ing freshwater availability and human health We will see repeat- ed coastal tragedies associated with storms and continuously rising sea lev- els The implications are profound and the only resolution is for humans to move to a fundamentally different energy pathway within a decade Oth- erwise it will be too late for one-third of the worldrsquos animal and plant species and millions of the most vulnerable members of our own species We may be able to preserve the re- markable planet on which civilization developed but it will not be easy spe- cial interests are resistant to change and have inordinate power in our gov- ernments especially in the United States Understanding the nature and causes of climate change is essential to crafting solutions to our current crisis

4 Now is the crucial time to address climate changeJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfWe have solved or are solving those pollution problems at least in developed countries But we did not address them until they hit us with full force That approach to wait and see and fix the problems post facto unfortunately will not work in the case of global climate change On the contrary the inertia of the climate system the fact that much of the climate change due to gases already in the air is still lsquoin the pipelinersquo and the time required for economically-sensible phase-out of existing technologies together have a profound implication They imply that ignoring the climate problem at this time for even another decade would serve to lock in future catastrophic climatic change and impacts that will unfold during the remainder of this century and beyond (references A and B)

West Coast Publishing 8Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 9Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Qualified Sources 1 The scientific consensus is that warming is occurring and is human inducedNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego December 2004 Science p 5702Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science (2) Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change This is not the case The scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme IPCCs purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis for informed policy action primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature (3) In its most recent assessment IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earths climate is being affected by human activities Human activities are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents that absorb or scatter radiant energy [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations [p 21 in (4)] IPCC is not alone in its conclusions In recent years all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements For example the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions begins Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earths atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise [p 1 in (5)] The report explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes The IPCCs conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue [p 3 in (5)] Others agree The American Meteorological Society (6) the American Geophysical Union (7) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling

2 The IPCC is extremely credibleUnion of Concerned Scientists August 24 2007 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwucsusaorgglobal_warmingsciencethe-ipcchtmlAR4 will be the most comprehensive synthesis of climate change science to date Experts from more than 130 countries are contributing to this assessment which represents six years of work More than 450 lead authors have received input from more than 800 contributing authors and an additional 2500 experts reviewed the draft documents AR4 will comprise three sections or working groups that deal with the scientific basis of global warming (Working Group I) its consequences (Working Group II) and options for slowing the trend (Working Group III) The IPCC will release summaries of the three working group documents over the course of 2007 culminating in the publication of the final ldquosynthesis reportrdquo at the end of the year The inclusive process by which IPCC assessments are developed and accepted by its members ensures exceptional scientific credibility As such AR4 has the potential to play a key role in informing decision makers as they shape climate policies over the next several years

3 All reputable scientific organizations in the US agree with the warming hypothesisNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego Climate Change What It Means for Us Our Children and Our Grandchildren 2007 p 68In the past several years all of the major scientific bodies in the United States whose membershiprsquos expertise bears directly on the matter have issued reports or statements that confirm the IPCC conclusion One is the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001) which originated from a White House request Here is how it opens ldquoGreenhouse gases are accumulating in Earthrsquos atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to riserdquo (National Academy of Sciences 2001 1) The report explicitly addresses whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes ldquoThe IPCCrsquos conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issuerdquo (National National Academy of Sciences 2001 3) Other US scientific groups agree

West Coast Publishing 10Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 11Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Unchecked climate change will make most of the Earth uninhabitableMary Wood Professor of Law Morse Center for Law and Politics Resident Scholar University of Oregon School of Law 2007 Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review p 583-584If we do nothing to curb carbon emissions we will commit ourselves to a future that most Americans cannot even imagine Jim Hansen the leading climate scientist for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) presents the ten degree Fahrenheit scenario it will send fifty percent or more species into extinction That is equivalent to the mass extinction that occurred fifty-five million years ago In his words Life will survive but it will do so on a transformed planet A mere five-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase may cause an eighty foot rise in sea level Hansen points out In that case the United States would lose most East Coast cities Boston New York Philadelphia Washington and Miami indeed practically the entire state of Florida would be under water Fifty million people in the US live below that sea level I could go on detailing on how climate crisis will affect the lives of every human on Earth What I have mentioned is just the tip of the icebergmdasha phrase on its way out British commentator Mark Lynas au- thor of High Tide summarizes the Earths situation this way Let me put it simply if we go on emitting greenhouse gases at anything like the current rate most of the surface of the globe will be rendered uninhab- itable within the lifetimes of most readers of this article

2 Warming will cause global instability and trigger US isolationismDavid Stipp staff writer February 9 2004 Fortune accessed May 15 2008 httpmoneycnncommagazinesfortunefortune_archive20040209360120indexhtmFor planning purposes it makes sense to focus on a midrange case of abrupt change A century of cold dry windy weather across the Northern Hemisphere that suddenly came on 8200 years ago fits the bill--its severity fell between that of the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age The event is thought to have been triggered by a conveyor collapse after a time of rising temperatures not unlike todays global warming Suppose it recurred beginning in 2010 Here are some of the things that might happen by 2020 At first the changes are easily mistaken for normal weather variation--allowing skeptics to dismiss them as a blip of little importance and leaving policymakers and the public paralyzed with uncertainty But by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening The average temperature has fallen by up to five degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of North America and Asia and up to six degrees in parts of Europe (By comparison the average temperature over the North Atlantic during the last ice age was ten to 15 degrees lower than it is today) Massive droughts have begun in key agricultural regions The average annual rainfall has dropped by nearly 30 in northern Europe and its climate has become more like Siberias Violent storms are increasingly common as the conveyor becomes wobbly on its way to collapse A particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making coastal cities such as the Hague unlivable In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River area are breached disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south Megadroughts afflict the US especially in the southern states along with winds that are 15 stronger on average than they are now causing widespread dust storms and soil loss The US is better positioned to cope than most nations however thanks to its diverse growing climates wealth technology and abundant resources That has a downside though It magnifies the haves-vs-have-nots gap and fosters bellicose finger-pointing at America Turning inward the US effectively seeks to build a fortress around itself to preserve resources Borders are strengthened to hold back starving immigrants from Mexico South America and the Caribbean islands--waves of boat people pose especially grim problems

3 Abrupt climate change risks nuclear conflictPeter Schwartz et al former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomAs famine disease and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change many countriesrsquo needs will exceed their carrying capacity This will create a sense of desperation which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance Imagine eastern European countries struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food water and energy eyeing Russia whose population is already in decline for access to its grain minerals and energy supply Or picture Japan suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water supply eying Russiarsquos Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes Envision Pakistan India and China ndash all

West Coast Publishing 12Warming Impacts and Takeouts

armed with nuclear weapons ndash skirmishing at their borders over refugees access to shared rivers and arable land Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights ndash leading to conflicts at sea

West Coast Publishing 13Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Rapid climate change could drive most species to extinctionJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfThere are millions of species of plants and animals on Earth These species depend upon each other in a tangled web of interactions that humans are only beginning to fathom Each species lives and can survive only within a specific climatic zone When climate changes species migrate in an attempt to stay within their climatic niche However large rapid climate change can drive most of the species on the planet to extinction Geologic records indicate that mass extinctions with loss of more than half of existing species occurred several times in the Earthrsquos history New species developed but that process required hundreds of thousands even millions of years If we destroy a large portion of the species of creation those that have existed on Earth in recent millennia the Earth will be a far more desolate planet for as many generations of humanity as we can imagine

2 Global warming is the pre-eminent threat to global biodiversityJay Malcolm et al Professor of Forestry at the University of Toronto April 2006 Conservation Biology p 538Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale We used major vegetation types ( biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not and (4) different migration capabilities Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships In addition average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years Projected percent extinctions ranged from lt1 to 43 of the endemic biota (average 116) with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates in some scenarios however hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region Caribbean Indo-Burma Mediterranean Basin Southwest Australia and Tropical Andes where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planetrsquos biodiversity

3 Warming risks widespread species extinctionAlan Pounds et al with the Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation January 12 2006 Nature p 161Humans are altering the Earths climate and thus the workings of living systems including pathogens and their hosts Among the predicted outcomes is the extinction of many species but detecting such an effect is difficult against a backdrop of other changes especially habitat destruction One approach is to focus on organisms for which current rates of extinction exceed those expected from habitat loss Amphibians are a case in point Thousands of species have declined and hundreds are on the brink of extinction or have already vanished The Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA) lists 427 species as critically endangered including 122 species that are possibly extinct A majority of the former and nearly all of the latter have declined even in seemingly undisturbed environments The causes have remained unclear in part because of their complexity Although pathogens are implicated their relationship to environmental change is poorly understood Here we test the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis which predicts declines in unusually warm years but does not assume a particular disease or chain of events Recent studies have considered this idea1 yet data have not permitted a geographically broad test that examines landscape alteration global warming and climate fluctuations on the timescale of El Nintildeo Suffering widespread extinctions often despite habitat protection harlequin frogs (Atelopus) afford such a test A new database produced by 75 researchers documents the case in unprecedented detail owing to the nature of these members of the toad family (Bufonidae) Brightly coloured and active during the day

West Coast Publishing 14Warming Impacts and Takeouts

near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

West Coast Publishing 15Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 6Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove 1 Positive feedbacks mean warming will be fast and violentMike Tidwell director of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network MayJune 2008 Orion Magazine accessed May 14 2008 httpwwworionmagazineorgindexphparticlesarticle2956Actually itrsquos the so-called feedback loops that have tripped up scientists so badly causing the experts to wildly misjudge the speed of the climate crash Having never witnessed a planet overheat before no one quite anticipated the geometric rate of change To cite one example when that brilliantly white Arctic ice melts to blue ocean it takes with it a huge measure of solar reflectivity which increases sunlight absorption and feeds more warmth back into the system amplifying everything dramatically And as northern forests across Canada continue to die en masse due to warming they switch from being net absorbers of CO2 to net emitters when forest decomposition sets in And as tundra melts all across Siberia it releases long-buried methane a greenhouse gas twenty times more powerful than even CO2 And so on and so on and so on Like the ear-splitting shriek when a microphone gets too close to its amplifier literally dozens of major feedback loops are screeching into place worldwide all at the same time ushering in the era of runaway climate change ldquoOnly in the past five years as researchers have learned more about the way our planet works have some come to the conclusion that changes probably wonrsquot be as smooth or as gradual as [previously] imaginedrdquo writes Fred Pearce in his new book With Speed and Violence Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change ldquoWe are in all probability already embarked on a roller coaster ride of lurching and sometimes brutal changerdquo

2 Positive feedbacks risk runaway warmingMichael McCarthy Environment editor May 18 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwindependentcoukopinioncommentators20michael-mccarthy-positive-feedback-may-advance-globa20l-warming-449320htmlThe fear of some climate scientists is that just such a positive feedback might occur with global warming in which the warming itself precipitates changes in the earths natural systems which themselves cause additional warming which then causes further changes and so on in an unstoppable acceleration This fear is well founded because records of ancient climates deduced from cores driven deep into the polar ice show that this has happened in the past Previous episodes of global warming at the end of ice ages have indeed developed a runaway character with enormous temperature rises of as much as 10C in 50 years There are a string of potential feedbacks associated with climate change nearly all of them likely to intensify the process One for example concerns the melting of the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean which climate models suggest will be gone by 2080 - or could even be gone considerably earlier than that

3 Positive feedback leads to rapid warmingJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfPlease allow one final comment The 6degC sensitivity (for doubled CO2) is valid for a specified change of greenhouse gases as the climate forcing That is relevant for human-made change of atmospheric composition and this sensitivity yields the correct answer for long-term climate change if actual greenhouse gas changes are used as the forcing mechanism However climate model scenarios for the future usually incorporate human-made emissions of greenhouse gases Atmospheric greenhouse gas amounts may be affected by feedbacks which thus alter expected climate change Greenhouse gas feedbacks are not idle speculation Paleoclimate records reveal times in the Earthrsquos history when global warming resulted in release of large amounts of methane to the atmosphere Potential sources of methane include methane hydrates lsquofrozenrsquo in ocean sediments and tundra which release methane in thawing Recent Arctic warming is causing release of methane from permafrost (Christensen et al 2004 Walter et al 2006) but not to a degree that has prevented near stabilization of atmospheric methane amount over the past several years

West Coast Publishing 7Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove 1 Atmospheric C02 levels are near a dangerous tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfRecent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm and likely less than that Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate albeit important adjustments to the CO2 limit Realization of how close the planet is to lsquotipping pointsrsquo with unacceptable consequences especially ice sheet disintegration with sea level rise out of humanityrsquos control has a bright side It implies an imperative we must find a way to keep the CO2 amount so low that it will also avert other detrimental effects that had begun to seem inevitable eg ocean acidification loss of most alpine glaciers and thus the water supply for millions of people and shifting of climatic zones with consequent extermination of species

2 The Earth is on the brink of a climate tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfCrystallizing scientific data and analyses reveal that the Earth is close to dangerous climate change to tipping points of the system with potential for irreversible deleterious effects This information derives in part from paleoclimate data ie the record of how climate changed in the past as well as from measurements being made now by satellites and in the field The Earthrsquos history shows that climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings Positive feedbacks predominate This has allowed the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states Huge natural climate changes from glacial to interglacial states have been driven by very weak very slow forcings and positive feedbacks Now humans are applying a far stronger forcing much more rapidly as we put back into the atmosphere in a geologic heartbeat fossil fuels that accumulated over millions of years Positive feedbacks are beginning to occur on a range of time scales

3 C02 levels are near a tipping pointmdashchanging course is key to human survivalJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies 2008 2008-2009 State of the Wild p 7-8Our home planet is dangerously near a tipping point at which human-made greenhouse gases reach a level where major climate changes can proceed mostly under their own momen- tum Warming will shift cli- matic zones by intensifying the hydrologic cycle affect- ing freshwater availability and human health We will see repeat- ed coastal tragedies associated with storms and continuously rising sea lev- els The implications are profound and the only resolution is for humans to move to a fundamentally different energy pathway within a decade Oth- erwise it will be too late for one-third of the worldrsquos animal and plant species and millions of the most vulnerable members of our own species We may be able to preserve the re- markable planet on which civilization developed but it will not be easy spe- cial interests are resistant to change and have inordinate power in our gov- ernments especially in the United States Understanding the nature and causes of climate change is essential to crafting solutions to our current crisis

4 Now is the crucial time to address climate changeJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfWe have solved or are solving those pollution problems at least in developed countries But we did not address them until they hit us with full force That approach to wait and see and fix the problems post facto unfortunately will not work in the case of global climate change On the contrary the inertia of the climate system the fact that much of the climate change due to gases already in the air is still lsquoin the pipelinersquo and the time required for economically-sensible phase-out of existing technologies together have a profound implication They imply that ignoring the climate problem at this time for even another decade would serve to lock in future catastrophic climatic change and impacts that will unfold during the remainder of this century and beyond (references A and B)

West Coast Publishing 8Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 9Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Qualified Sources 1 The scientific consensus is that warming is occurring and is human inducedNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego December 2004 Science p 5702Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science (2) Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change This is not the case The scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme IPCCs purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis for informed policy action primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature (3) In its most recent assessment IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earths climate is being affected by human activities Human activities are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents that absorb or scatter radiant energy [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations [p 21 in (4)] IPCC is not alone in its conclusions In recent years all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements For example the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions begins Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earths atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise [p 1 in (5)] The report explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes The IPCCs conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue [p 3 in (5)] Others agree The American Meteorological Society (6) the American Geophysical Union (7) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling

2 The IPCC is extremely credibleUnion of Concerned Scientists August 24 2007 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwucsusaorgglobal_warmingsciencethe-ipcchtmlAR4 will be the most comprehensive synthesis of climate change science to date Experts from more than 130 countries are contributing to this assessment which represents six years of work More than 450 lead authors have received input from more than 800 contributing authors and an additional 2500 experts reviewed the draft documents AR4 will comprise three sections or working groups that deal with the scientific basis of global warming (Working Group I) its consequences (Working Group II) and options for slowing the trend (Working Group III) The IPCC will release summaries of the three working group documents over the course of 2007 culminating in the publication of the final ldquosynthesis reportrdquo at the end of the year The inclusive process by which IPCC assessments are developed and accepted by its members ensures exceptional scientific credibility As such AR4 has the potential to play a key role in informing decision makers as they shape climate policies over the next several years

3 All reputable scientific organizations in the US agree with the warming hypothesisNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego Climate Change What It Means for Us Our Children and Our Grandchildren 2007 p 68In the past several years all of the major scientific bodies in the United States whose membershiprsquos expertise bears directly on the matter have issued reports or statements that confirm the IPCC conclusion One is the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001) which originated from a White House request Here is how it opens ldquoGreenhouse gases are accumulating in Earthrsquos atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to riserdquo (National Academy of Sciences 2001 1) The report explicitly addresses whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes ldquoThe IPCCrsquos conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issuerdquo (National National Academy of Sciences 2001 3) Other US scientific groups agree

West Coast Publishing 10Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 11Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Unchecked climate change will make most of the Earth uninhabitableMary Wood Professor of Law Morse Center for Law and Politics Resident Scholar University of Oregon School of Law 2007 Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review p 583-584If we do nothing to curb carbon emissions we will commit ourselves to a future that most Americans cannot even imagine Jim Hansen the leading climate scientist for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) presents the ten degree Fahrenheit scenario it will send fifty percent or more species into extinction That is equivalent to the mass extinction that occurred fifty-five million years ago In his words Life will survive but it will do so on a transformed planet A mere five-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase may cause an eighty foot rise in sea level Hansen points out In that case the United States would lose most East Coast cities Boston New York Philadelphia Washington and Miami indeed practically the entire state of Florida would be under water Fifty million people in the US live below that sea level I could go on detailing on how climate crisis will affect the lives of every human on Earth What I have mentioned is just the tip of the icebergmdasha phrase on its way out British commentator Mark Lynas au- thor of High Tide summarizes the Earths situation this way Let me put it simply if we go on emitting greenhouse gases at anything like the current rate most of the surface of the globe will be rendered uninhab- itable within the lifetimes of most readers of this article

2 Warming will cause global instability and trigger US isolationismDavid Stipp staff writer February 9 2004 Fortune accessed May 15 2008 httpmoneycnncommagazinesfortunefortune_archive20040209360120indexhtmFor planning purposes it makes sense to focus on a midrange case of abrupt change A century of cold dry windy weather across the Northern Hemisphere that suddenly came on 8200 years ago fits the bill--its severity fell between that of the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age The event is thought to have been triggered by a conveyor collapse after a time of rising temperatures not unlike todays global warming Suppose it recurred beginning in 2010 Here are some of the things that might happen by 2020 At first the changes are easily mistaken for normal weather variation--allowing skeptics to dismiss them as a blip of little importance and leaving policymakers and the public paralyzed with uncertainty But by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening The average temperature has fallen by up to five degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of North America and Asia and up to six degrees in parts of Europe (By comparison the average temperature over the North Atlantic during the last ice age was ten to 15 degrees lower than it is today) Massive droughts have begun in key agricultural regions The average annual rainfall has dropped by nearly 30 in northern Europe and its climate has become more like Siberias Violent storms are increasingly common as the conveyor becomes wobbly on its way to collapse A particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making coastal cities such as the Hague unlivable In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River area are breached disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south Megadroughts afflict the US especially in the southern states along with winds that are 15 stronger on average than they are now causing widespread dust storms and soil loss The US is better positioned to cope than most nations however thanks to its diverse growing climates wealth technology and abundant resources That has a downside though It magnifies the haves-vs-have-nots gap and fosters bellicose finger-pointing at America Turning inward the US effectively seeks to build a fortress around itself to preserve resources Borders are strengthened to hold back starving immigrants from Mexico South America and the Caribbean islands--waves of boat people pose especially grim problems

3 Abrupt climate change risks nuclear conflictPeter Schwartz et al former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomAs famine disease and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change many countriesrsquo needs will exceed their carrying capacity This will create a sense of desperation which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance Imagine eastern European countries struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food water and energy eyeing Russia whose population is already in decline for access to its grain minerals and energy supply Or picture Japan suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water supply eying Russiarsquos Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes Envision Pakistan India and China ndash all

West Coast Publishing 12Warming Impacts and Takeouts

armed with nuclear weapons ndash skirmishing at their borders over refugees access to shared rivers and arable land Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights ndash leading to conflicts at sea

West Coast Publishing 13Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Rapid climate change could drive most species to extinctionJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfThere are millions of species of plants and animals on Earth These species depend upon each other in a tangled web of interactions that humans are only beginning to fathom Each species lives and can survive only within a specific climatic zone When climate changes species migrate in an attempt to stay within their climatic niche However large rapid climate change can drive most of the species on the planet to extinction Geologic records indicate that mass extinctions with loss of more than half of existing species occurred several times in the Earthrsquos history New species developed but that process required hundreds of thousands even millions of years If we destroy a large portion of the species of creation those that have existed on Earth in recent millennia the Earth will be a far more desolate planet for as many generations of humanity as we can imagine

2 Global warming is the pre-eminent threat to global biodiversityJay Malcolm et al Professor of Forestry at the University of Toronto April 2006 Conservation Biology p 538Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale We used major vegetation types ( biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not and (4) different migration capabilities Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships In addition average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years Projected percent extinctions ranged from lt1 to 43 of the endemic biota (average 116) with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates in some scenarios however hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region Caribbean Indo-Burma Mediterranean Basin Southwest Australia and Tropical Andes where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planetrsquos biodiversity

3 Warming risks widespread species extinctionAlan Pounds et al with the Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation January 12 2006 Nature p 161Humans are altering the Earths climate and thus the workings of living systems including pathogens and their hosts Among the predicted outcomes is the extinction of many species but detecting such an effect is difficult against a backdrop of other changes especially habitat destruction One approach is to focus on organisms for which current rates of extinction exceed those expected from habitat loss Amphibians are a case in point Thousands of species have declined and hundreds are on the brink of extinction or have already vanished The Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA) lists 427 species as critically endangered including 122 species that are possibly extinct A majority of the former and nearly all of the latter have declined even in seemingly undisturbed environments The causes have remained unclear in part because of their complexity Although pathogens are implicated their relationship to environmental change is poorly understood Here we test the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis which predicts declines in unusually warm years but does not assume a particular disease or chain of events Recent studies have considered this idea1 yet data have not permitted a geographically broad test that examines landscape alteration global warming and climate fluctuations on the timescale of El Nintildeo Suffering widespread extinctions often despite habitat protection harlequin frogs (Atelopus) afford such a test A new database produced by 75 researchers documents the case in unprecedented detail owing to the nature of these members of the toad family (Bufonidae) Brightly coloured and active during the day

West Coast Publishing 14Warming Impacts and Takeouts

near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

West Coast Publishing 15Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 7Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove 1 Atmospheric C02 levels are near a dangerous tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfRecent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm and likely less than that Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate albeit important adjustments to the CO2 limit Realization of how close the planet is to lsquotipping pointsrsquo with unacceptable consequences especially ice sheet disintegration with sea level rise out of humanityrsquos control has a bright side It implies an imperative we must find a way to keep the CO2 amount so low that it will also avert other detrimental effects that had begun to seem inevitable eg ocean acidification loss of most alpine glaciers and thus the water supply for millions of people and shifting of climatic zones with consequent extermination of species

2 The Earth is on the brink of a climate tipping pointJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfCrystallizing scientific data and analyses reveal that the Earth is close to dangerous climate change to tipping points of the system with potential for irreversible deleterious effects This information derives in part from paleoclimate data ie the record of how climate changed in the past as well as from measurements being made now by satellites and in the field The Earthrsquos history shows that climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings Positive feedbacks predominate This has allowed the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states Huge natural climate changes from glacial to interglacial states have been driven by very weak very slow forcings and positive feedbacks Now humans are applying a far stronger forcing much more rapidly as we put back into the atmosphere in a geologic heartbeat fossil fuels that accumulated over millions of years Positive feedbacks are beginning to occur on a range of time scales

3 C02 levels are near a tipping pointmdashchanging course is key to human survivalJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies 2008 2008-2009 State of the Wild p 7-8Our home planet is dangerously near a tipping point at which human-made greenhouse gases reach a level where major climate changes can proceed mostly under their own momen- tum Warming will shift cli- matic zones by intensifying the hydrologic cycle affect- ing freshwater availability and human health We will see repeat- ed coastal tragedies associated with storms and continuously rising sea lev- els The implications are profound and the only resolution is for humans to move to a fundamentally different energy pathway within a decade Oth- erwise it will be too late for one-third of the worldrsquos animal and plant species and millions of the most vulnerable members of our own species We may be able to preserve the re- markable planet on which civilization developed but it will not be easy spe- cial interests are resistant to change and have inordinate power in our gov- ernments especially in the United States Understanding the nature and causes of climate change is essential to crafting solutions to our current crisis

4 Now is the crucial time to address climate changeJames Hansen Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University June 2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1canweavertpdfWe have solved or are solving those pollution problems at least in developed countries But we did not address them until they hit us with full force That approach to wait and see and fix the problems post facto unfortunately will not work in the case of global climate change On the contrary the inertia of the climate system the fact that much of the climate change due to gases already in the air is still lsquoin the pipelinersquo and the time required for economically-sensible phase-out of existing technologies together have a profound implication They imply that ignoring the climate problem at this time for even another decade would serve to lock in future catastrophic climatic change and impacts that will unfold during the remainder of this century and beyond (references A and B)

West Coast Publishing 8Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 9Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Qualified Sources 1 The scientific consensus is that warming is occurring and is human inducedNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego December 2004 Science p 5702Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science (2) Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change This is not the case The scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme IPCCs purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis for informed policy action primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature (3) In its most recent assessment IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earths climate is being affected by human activities Human activities are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents that absorb or scatter radiant energy [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations [p 21 in (4)] IPCC is not alone in its conclusions In recent years all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements For example the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions begins Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earths atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise [p 1 in (5)] The report explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes The IPCCs conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue [p 3 in (5)] Others agree The American Meteorological Society (6) the American Geophysical Union (7) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling

2 The IPCC is extremely credibleUnion of Concerned Scientists August 24 2007 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwucsusaorgglobal_warmingsciencethe-ipcchtmlAR4 will be the most comprehensive synthesis of climate change science to date Experts from more than 130 countries are contributing to this assessment which represents six years of work More than 450 lead authors have received input from more than 800 contributing authors and an additional 2500 experts reviewed the draft documents AR4 will comprise three sections or working groups that deal with the scientific basis of global warming (Working Group I) its consequences (Working Group II) and options for slowing the trend (Working Group III) The IPCC will release summaries of the three working group documents over the course of 2007 culminating in the publication of the final ldquosynthesis reportrdquo at the end of the year The inclusive process by which IPCC assessments are developed and accepted by its members ensures exceptional scientific credibility As such AR4 has the potential to play a key role in informing decision makers as they shape climate policies over the next several years

3 All reputable scientific organizations in the US agree with the warming hypothesisNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego Climate Change What It Means for Us Our Children and Our Grandchildren 2007 p 68In the past several years all of the major scientific bodies in the United States whose membershiprsquos expertise bears directly on the matter have issued reports or statements that confirm the IPCC conclusion One is the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001) which originated from a White House request Here is how it opens ldquoGreenhouse gases are accumulating in Earthrsquos atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to riserdquo (National Academy of Sciences 2001 1) The report explicitly addresses whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes ldquoThe IPCCrsquos conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issuerdquo (National National Academy of Sciences 2001 3) Other US scientific groups agree

West Coast Publishing 10Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 11Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Unchecked climate change will make most of the Earth uninhabitableMary Wood Professor of Law Morse Center for Law and Politics Resident Scholar University of Oregon School of Law 2007 Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review p 583-584If we do nothing to curb carbon emissions we will commit ourselves to a future that most Americans cannot even imagine Jim Hansen the leading climate scientist for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) presents the ten degree Fahrenheit scenario it will send fifty percent or more species into extinction That is equivalent to the mass extinction that occurred fifty-five million years ago In his words Life will survive but it will do so on a transformed planet A mere five-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase may cause an eighty foot rise in sea level Hansen points out In that case the United States would lose most East Coast cities Boston New York Philadelphia Washington and Miami indeed practically the entire state of Florida would be under water Fifty million people in the US live below that sea level I could go on detailing on how climate crisis will affect the lives of every human on Earth What I have mentioned is just the tip of the icebergmdasha phrase on its way out British commentator Mark Lynas au- thor of High Tide summarizes the Earths situation this way Let me put it simply if we go on emitting greenhouse gases at anything like the current rate most of the surface of the globe will be rendered uninhab- itable within the lifetimes of most readers of this article

2 Warming will cause global instability and trigger US isolationismDavid Stipp staff writer February 9 2004 Fortune accessed May 15 2008 httpmoneycnncommagazinesfortunefortune_archive20040209360120indexhtmFor planning purposes it makes sense to focus on a midrange case of abrupt change A century of cold dry windy weather across the Northern Hemisphere that suddenly came on 8200 years ago fits the bill--its severity fell between that of the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age The event is thought to have been triggered by a conveyor collapse after a time of rising temperatures not unlike todays global warming Suppose it recurred beginning in 2010 Here are some of the things that might happen by 2020 At first the changes are easily mistaken for normal weather variation--allowing skeptics to dismiss them as a blip of little importance and leaving policymakers and the public paralyzed with uncertainty But by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening The average temperature has fallen by up to five degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of North America and Asia and up to six degrees in parts of Europe (By comparison the average temperature over the North Atlantic during the last ice age was ten to 15 degrees lower than it is today) Massive droughts have begun in key agricultural regions The average annual rainfall has dropped by nearly 30 in northern Europe and its climate has become more like Siberias Violent storms are increasingly common as the conveyor becomes wobbly on its way to collapse A particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making coastal cities such as the Hague unlivable In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River area are breached disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south Megadroughts afflict the US especially in the southern states along with winds that are 15 stronger on average than they are now causing widespread dust storms and soil loss The US is better positioned to cope than most nations however thanks to its diverse growing climates wealth technology and abundant resources That has a downside though It magnifies the haves-vs-have-nots gap and fosters bellicose finger-pointing at America Turning inward the US effectively seeks to build a fortress around itself to preserve resources Borders are strengthened to hold back starving immigrants from Mexico South America and the Caribbean islands--waves of boat people pose especially grim problems

3 Abrupt climate change risks nuclear conflictPeter Schwartz et al former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomAs famine disease and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change many countriesrsquo needs will exceed their carrying capacity This will create a sense of desperation which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance Imagine eastern European countries struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food water and energy eyeing Russia whose population is already in decline for access to its grain minerals and energy supply Or picture Japan suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water supply eying Russiarsquos Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes Envision Pakistan India and China ndash all

West Coast Publishing 12Warming Impacts and Takeouts

armed with nuclear weapons ndash skirmishing at their borders over refugees access to shared rivers and arable land Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights ndash leading to conflicts at sea

West Coast Publishing 13Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Rapid climate change could drive most species to extinctionJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfThere are millions of species of plants and animals on Earth These species depend upon each other in a tangled web of interactions that humans are only beginning to fathom Each species lives and can survive only within a specific climatic zone When climate changes species migrate in an attempt to stay within their climatic niche However large rapid climate change can drive most of the species on the planet to extinction Geologic records indicate that mass extinctions with loss of more than half of existing species occurred several times in the Earthrsquos history New species developed but that process required hundreds of thousands even millions of years If we destroy a large portion of the species of creation those that have existed on Earth in recent millennia the Earth will be a far more desolate planet for as many generations of humanity as we can imagine

2 Global warming is the pre-eminent threat to global biodiversityJay Malcolm et al Professor of Forestry at the University of Toronto April 2006 Conservation Biology p 538Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale We used major vegetation types ( biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not and (4) different migration capabilities Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships In addition average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years Projected percent extinctions ranged from lt1 to 43 of the endemic biota (average 116) with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates in some scenarios however hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region Caribbean Indo-Burma Mediterranean Basin Southwest Australia and Tropical Andes where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planetrsquos biodiversity

3 Warming risks widespread species extinctionAlan Pounds et al with the Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation January 12 2006 Nature p 161Humans are altering the Earths climate and thus the workings of living systems including pathogens and their hosts Among the predicted outcomes is the extinction of many species but detecting such an effect is difficult against a backdrop of other changes especially habitat destruction One approach is to focus on organisms for which current rates of extinction exceed those expected from habitat loss Amphibians are a case in point Thousands of species have declined and hundreds are on the brink of extinction or have already vanished The Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA) lists 427 species as critically endangered including 122 species that are possibly extinct A majority of the former and nearly all of the latter have declined even in seemingly undisturbed environments The causes have remained unclear in part because of their complexity Although pathogens are implicated their relationship to environmental change is poorly understood Here we test the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis which predicts declines in unusually warm years but does not assume a particular disease or chain of events Recent studies have considered this idea1 yet data have not permitted a geographically broad test that examines landscape alteration global warming and climate fluctuations on the timescale of El Nintildeo Suffering widespread extinctions often despite habitat protection harlequin frogs (Atelopus) afford such a test A new database produced by 75 researchers documents the case in unprecedented detail owing to the nature of these members of the toad family (Bufonidae) Brightly coloured and active during the day

West Coast Publishing 14Warming Impacts and Takeouts

near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

West Coast Publishing 15Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

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for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

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A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 8Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 9Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Qualified Sources 1 The scientific consensus is that warming is occurring and is human inducedNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego December 2004 Science p 5702Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science (2) Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change This is not the case The scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme IPCCs purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis for informed policy action primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature (3) In its most recent assessment IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earths climate is being affected by human activities Human activities are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents that absorb or scatter radiant energy [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations [p 21 in (4)] IPCC is not alone in its conclusions In recent years all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements For example the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions begins Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earths atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise [p 1 in (5)] The report explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes The IPCCs conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue [p 3 in (5)] Others agree The American Meteorological Society (6) the American Geophysical Union (7) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling

2 The IPCC is extremely credibleUnion of Concerned Scientists August 24 2007 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwucsusaorgglobal_warmingsciencethe-ipcchtmlAR4 will be the most comprehensive synthesis of climate change science to date Experts from more than 130 countries are contributing to this assessment which represents six years of work More than 450 lead authors have received input from more than 800 contributing authors and an additional 2500 experts reviewed the draft documents AR4 will comprise three sections or working groups that deal with the scientific basis of global warming (Working Group I) its consequences (Working Group II) and options for slowing the trend (Working Group III) The IPCC will release summaries of the three working group documents over the course of 2007 culminating in the publication of the final ldquosynthesis reportrdquo at the end of the year The inclusive process by which IPCC assessments are developed and accepted by its members ensures exceptional scientific credibility As such AR4 has the potential to play a key role in informing decision makers as they shape climate policies over the next several years

3 All reputable scientific organizations in the US agree with the warming hypothesisNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego Climate Change What It Means for Us Our Children and Our Grandchildren 2007 p 68In the past several years all of the major scientific bodies in the United States whose membershiprsquos expertise bears directly on the matter have issued reports or statements that confirm the IPCC conclusion One is the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001) which originated from a White House request Here is how it opens ldquoGreenhouse gases are accumulating in Earthrsquos atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to riserdquo (National Academy of Sciences 2001 1) The report explicitly addresses whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes ldquoThe IPCCrsquos conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issuerdquo (National National Academy of Sciences 2001 3) Other US scientific groups agree

West Coast Publishing 10Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 11Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Unchecked climate change will make most of the Earth uninhabitableMary Wood Professor of Law Morse Center for Law and Politics Resident Scholar University of Oregon School of Law 2007 Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review p 583-584If we do nothing to curb carbon emissions we will commit ourselves to a future that most Americans cannot even imagine Jim Hansen the leading climate scientist for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) presents the ten degree Fahrenheit scenario it will send fifty percent or more species into extinction That is equivalent to the mass extinction that occurred fifty-five million years ago In his words Life will survive but it will do so on a transformed planet A mere five-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase may cause an eighty foot rise in sea level Hansen points out In that case the United States would lose most East Coast cities Boston New York Philadelphia Washington and Miami indeed practically the entire state of Florida would be under water Fifty million people in the US live below that sea level I could go on detailing on how climate crisis will affect the lives of every human on Earth What I have mentioned is just the tip of the icebergmdasha phrase on its way out British commentator Mark Lynas au- thor of High Tide summarizes the Earths situation this way Let me put it simply if we go on emitting greenhouse gases at anything like the current rate most of the surface of the globe will be rendered uninhab- itable within the lifetimes of most readers of this article

2 Warming will cause global instability and trigger US isolationismDavid Stipp staff writer February 9 2004 Fortune accessed May 15 2008 httpmoneycnncommagazinesfortunefortune_archive20040209360120indexhtmFor planning purposes it makes sense to focus on a midrange case of abrupt change A century of cold dry windy weather across the Northern Hemisphere that suddenly came on 8200 years ago fits the bill--its severity fell between that of the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age The event is thought to have been triggered by a conveyor collapse after a time of rising temperatures not unlike todays global warming Suppose it recurred beginning in 2010 Here are some of the things that might happen by 2020 At first the changes are easily mistaken for normal weather variation--allowing skeptics to dismiss them as a blip of little importance and leaving policymakers and the public paralyzed with uncertainty But by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening The average temperature has fallen by up to five degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of North America and Asia and up to six degrees in parts of Europe (By comparison the average temperature over the North Atlantic during the last ice age was ten to 15 degrees lower than it is today) Massive droughts have begun in key agricultural regions The average annual rainfall has dropped by nearly 30 in northern Europe and its climate has become more like Siberias Violent storms are increasingly common as the conveyor becomes wobbly on its way to collapse A particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making coastal cities such as the Hague unlivable In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River area are breached disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south Megadroughts afflict the US especially in the southern states along with winds that are 15 stronger on average than they are now causing widespread dust storms and soil loss The US is better positioned to cope than most nations however thanks to its diverse growing climates wealth technology and abundant resources That has a downside though It magnifies the haves-vs-have-nots gap and fosters bellicose finger-pointing at America Turning inward the US effectively seeks to build a fortress around itself to preserve resources Borders are strengthened to hold back starving immigrants from Mexico South America and the Caribbean islands--waves of boat people pose especially grim problems

3 Abrupt climate change risks nuclear conflictPeter Schwartz et al former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomAs famine disease and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change many countriesrsquo needs will exceed their carrying capacity This will create a sense of desperation which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance Imagine eastern European countries struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food water and energy eyeing Russia whose population is already in decline for access to its grain minerals and energy supply Or picture Japan suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water supply eying Russiarsquos Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes Envision Pakistan India and China ndash all

West Coast Publishing 12Warming Impacts and Takeouts

armed with nuclear weapons ndash skirmishing at their borders over refugees access to shared rivers and arable land Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights ndash leading to conflicts at sea

West Coast Publishing 13Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Rapid climate change could drive most species to extinctionJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfThere are millions of species of plants and animals on Earth These species depend upon each other in a tangled web of interactions that humans are only beginning to fathom Each species lives and can survive only within a specific climatic zone When climate changes species migrate in an attempt to stay within their climatic niche However large rapid climate change can drive most of the species on the planet to extinction Geologic records indicate that mass extinctions with loss of more than half of existing species occurred several times in the Earthrsquos history New species developed but that process required hundreds of thousands even millions of years If we destroy a large portion of the species of creation those that have existed on Earth in recent millennia the Earth will be a far more desolate planet for as many generations of humanity as we can imagine

2 Global warming is the pre-eminent threat to global biodiversityJay Malcolm et al Professor of Forestry at the University of Toronto April 2006 Conservation Biology p 538Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale We used major vegetation types ( biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not and (4) different migration capabilities Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships In addition average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years Projected percent extinctions ranged from lt1 to 43 of the endemic biota (average 116) with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates in some scenarios however hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region Caribbean Indo-Burma Mediterranean Basin Southwest Australia and Tropical Andes where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planetrsquos biodiversity

3 Warming risks widespread species extinctionAlan Pounds et al with the Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation January 12 2006 Nature p 161Humans are altering the Earths climate and thus the workings of living systems including pathogens and their hosts Among the predicted outcomes is the extinction of many species but detecting such an effect is difficult against a backdrop of other changes especially habitat destruction One approach is to focus on organisms for which current rates of extinction exceed those expected from habitat loss Amphibians are a case in point Thousands of species have declined and hundreds are on the brink of extinction or have already vanished The Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA) lists 427 species as critically endangered including 122 species that are possibly extinct A majority of the former and nearly all of the latter have declined even in seemingly undisturbed environments The causes have remained unclear in part because of their complexity Although pathogens are implicated their relationship to environmental change is poorly understood Here we test the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis which predicts declines in unusually warm years but does not assume a particular disease or chain of events Recent studies have considered this idea1 yet data have not permitted a geographically broad test that examines landscape alteration global warming and climate fluctuations on the timescale of El Nintildeo Suffering widespread extinctions often despite habitat protection harlequin frogs (Atelopus) afford such a test A new database produced by 75 researchers documents the case in unprecedented detail owing to the nature of these members of the toad family (Bufonidae) Brightly coloured and active during the day

West Coast Publishing 14Warming Impacts and Takeouts

near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

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Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

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mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

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for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

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A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 9Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Qualified Sources 1 The scientific consensus is that warming is occurring and is human inducedNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego December 2004 Science p 5702Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science (2) Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change This is not the case The scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme IPCCs purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis for informed policy action primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature (3) In its most recent assessment IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earths climate is being affected by human activities Human activities are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents that absorb or scatter radiant energy [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations [p 21 in (4)] IPCC is not alone in its conclusions In recent years all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements For example the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions begins Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earths atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise [p 1 in (5)] The report explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes The IPCCs conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue [p 3 in (5)] Others agree The American Meteorological Society (6) the American Geophysical Union (7) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling

2 The IPCC is extremely credibleUnion of Concerned Scientists August 24 2007 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwucsusaorgglobal_warmingsciencethe-ipcchtmlAR4 will be the most comprehensive synthesis of climate change science to date Experts from more than 130 countries are contributing to this assessment which represents six years of work More than 450 lead authors have received input from more than 800 contributing authors and an additional 2500 experts reviewed the draft documents AR4 will comprise three sections or working groups that deal with the scientific basis of global warming (Working Group I) its consequences (Working Group II) and options for slowing the trend (Working Group III) The IPCC will release summaries of the three working group documents over the course of 2007 culminating in the publication of the final ldquosynthesis reportrdquo at the end of the year The inclusive process by which IPCC assessments are developed and accepted by its members ensures exceptional scientific credibility As such AR4 has the potential to play a key role in informing decision makers as they shape climate policies over the next several years

3 All reputable scientific organizations in the US agree with the warming hypothesisNaomi Oreskes Professor in the Department of History and Science Studies Program University of California at San Diego Climate Change What It Means for Us Our Children and Our Grandchildren 2007 p 68In the past several years all of the major scientific bodies in the United States whose membershiprsquos expertise bears directly on the matter have issued reports or statements that confirm the IPCC conclusion One is the National Academy of Sciences report Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001) which originated from a White House request Here is how it opens ldquoGreenhouse gases are accumulating in Earthrsquos atmosphere as a result of human activities causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to riserdquo (National Academy of Sciences 2001 1) The report explicitly addresses whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking and answers yes ldquoThe IPCCrsquos conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issuerdquo (National National Academy of Sciences 2001 3) Other US scientific groups agree

West Coast Publishing 10Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 11Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Unchecked climate change will make most of the Earth uninhabitableMary Wood Professor of Law Morse Center for Law and Politics Resident Scholar University of Oregon School of Law 2007 Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review p 583-584If we do nothing to curb carbon emissions we will commit ourselves to a future that most Americans cannot even imagine Jim Hansen the leading climate scientist for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) presents the ten degree Fahrenheit scenario it will send fifty percent or more species into extinction That is equivalent to the mass extinction that occurred fifty-five million years ago In his words Life will survive but it will do so on a transformed planet A mere five-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase may cause an eighty foot rise in sea level Hansen points out In that case the United States would lose most East Coast cities Boston New York Philadelphia Washington and Miami indeed practically the entire state of Florida would be under water Fifty million people in the US live below that sea level I could go on detailing on how climate crisis will affect the lives of every human on Earth What I have mentioned is just the tip of the icebergmdasha phrase on its way out British commentator Mark Lynas au- thor of High Tide summarizes the Earths situation this way Let me put it simply if we go on emitting greenhouse gases at anything like the current rate most of the surface of the globe will be rendered uninhab- itable within the lifetimes of most readers of this article

2 Warming will cause global instability and trigger US isolationismDavid Stipp staff writer February 9 2004 Fortune accessed May 15 2008 httpmoneycnncommagazinesfortunefortune_archive20040209360120indexhtmFor planning purposes it makes sense to focus on a midrange case of abrupt change A century of cold dry windy weather across the Northern Hemisphere that suddenly came on 8200 years ago fits the bill--its severity fell between that of the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age The event is thought to have been triggered by a conveyor collapse after a time of rising temperatures not unlike todays global warming Suppose it recurred beginning in 2010 Here are some of the things that might happen by 2020 At first the changes are easily mistaken for normal weather variation--allowing skeptics to dismiss them as a blip of little importance and leaving policymakers and the public paralyzed with uncertainty But by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening The average temperature has fallen by up to five degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of North America and Asia and up to six degrees in parts of Europe (By comparison the average temperature over the North Atlantic during the last ice age was ten to 15 degrees lower than it is today) Massive droughts have begun in key agricultural regions The average annual rainfall has dropped by nearly 30 in northern Europe and its climate has become more like Siberias Violent storms are increasingly common as the conveyor becomes wobbly on its way to collapse A particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making coastal cities such as the Hague unlivable In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River area are breached disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south Megadroughts afflict the US especially in the southern states along with winds that are 15 stronger on average than they are now causing widespread dust storms and soil loss The US is better positioned to cope than most nations however thanks to its diverse growing climates wealth technology and abundant resources That has a downside though It magnifies the haves-vs-have-nots gap and fosters bellicose finger-pointing at America Turning inward the US effectively seeks to build a fortress around itself to preserve resources Borders are strengthened to hold back starving immigrants from Mexico South America and the Caribbean islands--waves of boat people pose especially grim problems

3 Abrupt climate change risks nuclear conflictPeter Schwartz et al former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomAs famine disease and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change many countriesrsquo needs will exceed their carrying capacity This will create a sense of desperation which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance Imagine eastern European countries struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food water and energy eyeing Russia whose population is already in decline for access to its grain minerals and energy supply Or picture Japan suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water supply eying Russiarsquos Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes Envision Pakistan India and China ndash all

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armed with nuclear weapons ndash skirmishing at their borders over refugees access to shared rivers and arable land Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights ndash leading to conflicts at sea

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Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Rapid climate change could drive most species to extinctionJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfThere are millions of species of plants and animals on Earth These species depend upon each other in a tangled web of interactions that humans are only beginning to fathom Each species lives and can survive only within a specific climatic zone When climate changes species migrate in an attempt to stay within their climatic niche However large rapid climate change can drive most of the species on the planet to extinction Geologic records indicate that mass extinctions with loss of more than half of existing species occurred several times in the Earthrsquos history New species developed but that process required hundreds of thousands even millions of years If we destroy a large portion of the species of creation those that have existed on Earth in recent millennia the Earth will be a far more desolate planet for as many generations of humanity as we can imagine

2 Global warming is the pre-eminent threat to global biodiversityJay Malcolm et al Professor of Forestry at the University of Toronto April 2006 Conservation Biology p 538Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale We used major vegetation types ( biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not and (4) different migration capabilities Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships In addition average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years Projected percent extinctions ranged from lt1 to 43 of the endemic biota (average 116) with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates in some scenarios however hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region Caribbean Indo-Burma Mediterranean Basin Southwest Australia and Tropical Andes where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planetrsquos biodiversity

3 Warming risks widespread species extinctionAlan Pounds et al with the Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation January 12 2006 Nature p 161Humans are altering the Earths climate and thus the workings of living systems including pathogens and their hosts Among the predicted outcomes is the extinction of many species but detecting such an effect is difficult against a backdrop of other changes especially habitat destruction One approach is to focus on organisms for which current rates of extinction exceed those expected from habitat loss Amphibians are a case in point Thousands of species have declined and hundreds are on the brink of extinction or have already vanished The Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA) lists 427 species as critically endangered including 122 species that are possibly extinct A majority of the former and nearly all of the latter have declined even in seemingly undisturbed environments The causes have remained unclear in part because of their complexity Although pathogens are implicated their relationship to environmental change is poorly understood Here we test the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis which predicts declines in unusually warm years but does not assume a particular disease or chain of events Recent studies have considered this idea1 yet data have not permitted a geographically broad test that examines landscape alteration global warming and climate fluctuations on the timescale of El Nintildeo Suffering widespread extinctions often despite habitat protection harlequin frogs (Atelopus) afford such a test A new database produced by 75 researchers documents the case in unprecedented detail owing to the nature of these members of the toad family (Bufonidae) Brightly coloured and active during the day

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near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

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Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

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Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

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mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

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Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

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Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

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Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 10Warming Impacts and Takeouts

West Coast Publishing 11Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Unchecked climate change will make most of the Earth uninhabitableMary Wood Professor of Law Morse Center for Law and Politics Resident Scholar University of Oregon School of Law 2007 Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review p 583-584If we do nothing to curb carbon emissions we will commit ourselves to a future that most Americans cannot even imagine Jim Hansen the leading climate scientist for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) presents the ten degree Fahrenheit scenario it will send fifty percent or more species into extinction That is equivalent to the mass extinction that occurred fifty-five million years ago In his words Life will survive but it will do so on a transformed planet A mere five-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase may cause an eighty foot rise in sea level Hansen points out In that case the United States would lose most East Coast cities Boston New York Philadelphia Washington and Miami indeed practically the entire state of Florida would be under water Fifty million people in the US live below that sea level I could go on detailing on how climate crisis will affect the lives of every human on Earth What I have mentioned is just the tip of the icebergmdasha phrase on its way out British commentator Mark Lynas au- thor of High Tide summarizes the Earths situation this way Let me put it simply if we go on emitting greenhouse gases at anything like the current rate most of the surface of the globe will be rendered uninhab- itable within the lifetimes of most readers of this article

2 Warming will cause global instability and trigger US isolationismDavid Stipp staff writer February 9 2004 Fortune accessed May 15 2008 httpmoneycnncommagazinesfortunefortune_archive20040209360120indexhtmFor planning purposes it makes sense to focus on a midrange case of abrupt change A century of cold dry windy weather across the Northern Hemisphere that suddenly came on 8200 years ago fits the bill--its severity fell between that of the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age The event is thought to have been triggered by a conveyor collapse after a time of rising temperatures not unlike todays global warming Suppose it recurred beginning in 2010 Here are some of the things that might happen by 2020 At first the changes are easily mistaken for normal weather variation--allowing skeptics to dismiss them as a blip of little importance and leaving policymakers and the public paralyzed with uncertainty But by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening The average temperature has fallen by up to five degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of North America and Asia and up to six degrees in parts of Europe (By comparison the average temperature over the North Atlantic during the last ice age was ten to 15 degrees lower than it is today) Massive droughts have begun in key agricultural regions The average annual rainfall has dropped by nearly 30 in northern Europe and its climate has become more like Siberias Violent storms are increasingly common as the conveyor becomes wobbly on its way to collapse A particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making coastal cities such as the Hague unlivable In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River area are breached disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south Megadroughts afflict the US especially in the southern states along with winds that are 15 stronger on average than they are now causing widespread dust storms and soil loss The US is better positioned to cope than most nations however thanks to its diverse growing climates wealth technology and abundant resources That has a downside though It magnifies the haves-vs-have-nots gap and fosters bellicose finger-pointing at America Turning inward the US effectively seeks to build a fortress around itself to preserve resources Borders are strengthened to hold back starving immigrants from Mexico South America and the Caribbean islands--waves of boat people pose especially grim problems

3 Abrupt climate change risks nuclear conflictPeter Schwartz et al former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomAs famine disease and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change many countriesrsquo needs will exceed their carrying capacity This will create a sense of desperation which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance Imagine eastern European countries struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food water and energy eyeing Russia whose population is already in decline for access to its grain minerals and energy supply Or picture Japan suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water supply eying Russiarsquos Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes Envision Pakistan India and China ndash all

West Coast Publishing 12Warming Impacts and Takeouts

armed with nuclear weapons ndash skirmishing at their borders over refugees access to shared rivers and arable land Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights ndash leading to conflicts at sea

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Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Rapid climate change could drive most species to extinctionJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfThere are millions of species of plants and animals on Earth These species depend upon each other in a tangled web of interactions that humans are only beginning to fathom Each species lives and can survive only within a specific climatic zone When climate changes species migrate in an attempt to stay within their climatic niche However large rapid climate change can drive most of the species on the planet to extinction Geologic records indicate that mass extinctions with loss of more than half of existing species occurred several times in the Earthrsquos history New species developed but that process required hundreds of thousands even millions of years If we destroy a large portion of the species of creation those that have existed on Earth in recent millennia the Earth will be a far more desolate planet for as many generations of humanity as we can imagine

2 Global warming is the pre-eminent threat to global biodiversityJay Malcolm et al Professor of Forestry at the University of Toronto April 2006 Conservation Biology p 538Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale We used major vegetation types ( biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not and (4) different migration capabilities Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships In addition average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years Projected percent extinctions ranged from lt1 to 43 of the endemic biota (average 116) with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates in some scenarios however hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region Caribbean Indo-Burma Mediterranean Basin Southwest Australia and Tropical Andes where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planetrsquos biodiversity

3 Warming risks widespread species extinctionAlan Pounds et al with the Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation January 12 2006 Nature p 161Humans are altering the Earths climate and thus the workings of living systems including pathogens and their hosts Among the predicted outcomes is the extinction of many species but detecting such an effect is difficult against a backdrop of other changes especially habitat destruction One approach is to focus on organisms for which current rates of extinction exceed those expected from habitat loss Amphibians are a case in point Thousands of species have declined and hundreds are on the brink of extinction or have already vanished The Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA) lists 427 species as critically endangered including 122 species that are possibly extinct A majority of the former and nearly all of the latter have declined even in seemingly undisturbed environments The causes have remained unclear in part because of their complexity Although pathogens are implicated their relationship to environmental change is poorly understood Here we test the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis which predicts declines in unusually warm years but does not assume a particular disease or chain of events Recent studies have considered this idea1 yet data have not permitted a geographically broad test that examines landscape alteration global warming and climate fluctuations on the timescale of El Nintildeo Suffering widespread extinctions often despite habitat protection harlequin frogs (Atelopus) afford such a test A new database produced by 75 researchers documents the case in unprecedented detail owing to the nature of these members of the toad family (Bufonidae) Brightly coloured and active during the day

West Coast Publishing 14Warming Impacts and Takeouts

near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

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Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

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Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

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Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 11Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Unchecked climate change will make most of the Earth uninhabitableMary Wood Professor of Law Morse Center for Law and Politics Resident Scholar University of Oregon School of Law 2007 Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review p 583-584If we do nothing to curb carbon emissions we will commit ourselves to a future that most Americans cannot even imagine Jim Hansen the leading climate scientist for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) presents the ten degree Fahrenheit scenario it will send fifty percent or more species into extinction That is equivalent to the mass extinction that occurred fifty-five million years ago In his words Life will survive but it will do so on a transformed planet A mere five-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase may cause an eighty foot rise in sea level Hansen points out In that case the United States would lose most East Coast cities Boston New York Philadelphia Washington and Miami indeed practically the entire state of Florida would be under water Fifty million people in the US live below that sea level I could go on detailing on how climate crisis will affect the lives of every human on Earth What I have mentioned is just the tip of the icebergmdasha phrase on its way out British commentator Mark Lynas au- thor of High Tide summarizes the Earths situation this way Let me put it simply if we go on emitting greenhouse gases at anything like the current rate most of the surface of the globe will be rendered uninhab- itable within the lifetimes of most readers of this article

2 Warming will cause global instability and trigger US isolationismDavid Stipp staff writer February 9 2004 Fortune accessed May 15 2008 httpmoneycnncommagazinesfortunefortune_archive20040209360120indexhtmFor planning purposes it makes sense to focus on a midrange case of abrupt change A century of cold dry windy weather across the Northern Hemisphere that suddenly came on 8200 years ago fits the bill--its severity fell between that of the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age The event is thought to have been triggered by a conveyor collapse after a time of rising temperatures not unlike todays global warming Suppose it recurred beginning in 2010 Here are some of the things that might happen by 2020 At first the changes are easily mistaken for normal weather variation--allowing skeptics to dismiss them as a blip of little importance and leaving policymakers and the public paralyzed with uncertainty But by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening The average temperature has fallen by up to five degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of North America and Asia and up to six degrees in parts of Europe (By comparison the average temperature over the North Atlantic during the last ice age was ten to 15 degrees lower than it is today) Massive droughts have begun in key agricultural regions The average annual rainfall has dropped by nearly 30 in northern Europe and its climate has become more like Siberias Violent storms are increasingly common as the conveyor becomes wobbly on its way to collapse A particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making coastal cities such as the Hague unlivable In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River area are breached disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south Megadroughts afflict the US especially in the southern states along with winds that are 15 stronger on average than they are now causing widespread dust storms and soil loss The US is better positioned to cope than most nations however thanks to its diverse growing climates wealth technology and abundant resources That has a downside though It magnifies the haves-vs-have-nots gap and fosters bellicose finger-pointing at America Turning inward the US effectively seeks to build a fortress around itself to preserve resources Borders are strengthened to hold back starving immigrants from Mexico South America and the Caribbean islands--waves of boat people pose especially grim problems

3 Abrupt climate change risks nuclear conflictPeter Schwartz et al former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomAs famine disease and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change many countriesrsquo needs will exceed their carrying capacity This will create a sense of desperation which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance Imagine eastern European countries struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food water and energy eyeing Russia whose population is already in decline for access to its grain minerals and energy supply Or picture Japan suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water supply eying Russiarsquos Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes Envision Pakistan India and China ndash all

West Coast Publishing 12Warming Impacts and Takeouts

armed with nuclear weapons ndash skirmishing at their borders over refugees access to shared rivers and arable land Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights ndash leading to conflicts at sea

West Coast Publishing 13Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Rapid climate change could drive most species to extinctionJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfThere are millions of species of plants and animals on Earth These species depend upon each other in a tangled web of interactions that humans are only beginning to fathom Each species lives and can survive only within a specific climatic zone When climate changes species migrate in an attempt to stay within their climatic niche However large rapid climate change can drive most of the species on the planet to extinction Geologic records indicate that mass extinctions with loss of more than half of existing species occurred several times in the Earthrsquos history New species developed but that process required hundreds of thousands even millions of years If we destroy a large portion of the species of creation those that have existed on Earth in recent millennia the Earth will be a far more desolate planet for as many generations of humanity as we can imagine

2 Global warming is the pre-eminent threat to global biodiversityJay Malcolm et al Professor of Forestry at the University of Toronto April 2006 Conservation Biology p 538Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale We used major vegetation types ( biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not and (4) different migration capabilities Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships In addition average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years Projected percent extinctions ranged from lt1 to 43 of the endemic biota (average 116) with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates in some scenarios however hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region Caribbean Indo-Burma Mediterranean Basin Southwest Australia and Tropical Andes where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planetrsquos biodiversity

3 Warming risks widespread species extinctionAlan Pounds et al with the Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation January 12 2006 Nature p 161Humans are altering the Earths climate and thus the workings of living systems including pathogens and their hosts Among the predicted outcomes is the extinction of many species but detecting such an effect is difficult against a backdrop of other changes especially habitat destruction One approach is to focus on organisms for which current rates of extinction exceed those expected from habitat loss Amphibians are a case in point Thousands of species have declined and hundreds are on the brink of extinction or have already vanished The Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA) lists 427 species as critically endangered including 122 species that are possibly extinct A majority of the former and nearly all of the latter have declined even in seemingly undisturbed environments The causes have remained unclear in part because of their complexity Although pathogens are implicated their relationship to environmental change is poorly understood Here we test the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis which predicts declines in unusually warm years but does not assume a particular disease or chain of events Recent studies have considered this idea1 yet data have not permitted a geographically broad test that examines landscape alteration global warming and climate fluctuations on the timescale of El Nintildeo Suffering widespread extinctions often despite habitat protection harlequin frogs (Atelopus) afford such a test A new database produced by 75 researchers documents the case in unprecedented detail owing to the nature of these members of the toad family (Bufonidae) Brightly coloured and active during the day

West Coast Publishing 14Warming Impacts and Takeouts

near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

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Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

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Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

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Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 12Warming Impacts and Takeouts

armed with nuclear weapons ndash skirmishing at their borders over refugees access to shared rivers and arable land Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights ndash leading to conflicts at sea

West Coast Publishing 13Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Rapid climate change could drive most species to extinctionJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfThere are millions of species of plants and animals on Earth These species depend upon each other in a tangled web of interactions that humans are only beginning to fathom Each species lives and can survive only within a specific climatic zone When climate changes species migrate in an attempt to stay within their climatic niche However large rapid climate change can drive most of the species on the planet to extinction Geologic records indicate that mass extinctions with loss of more than half of existing species occurred several times in the Earthrsquos history New species developed but that process required hundreds of thousands even millions of years If we destroy a large portion of the species of creation those that have existed on Earth in recent millennia the Earth will be a far more desolate planet for as many generations of humanity as we can imagine

2 Global warming is the pre-eminent threat to global biodiversityJay Malcolm et al Professor of Forestry at the University of Toronto April 2006 Conservation Biology p 538Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale We used major vegetation types ( biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not and (4) different migration capabilities Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships In addition average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years Projected percent extinctions ranged from lt1 to 43 of the endemic biota (average 116) with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates in some scenarios however hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region Caribbean Indo-Burma Mediterranean Basin Southwest Australia and Tropical Andes where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planetrsquos biodiversity

3 Warming risks widespread species extinctionAlan Pounds et al with the Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation January 12 2006 Nature p 161Humans are altering the Earths climate and thus the workings of living systems including pathogens and their hosts Among the predicted outcomes is the extinction of many species but detecting such an effect is difficult against a backdrop of other changes especially habitat destruction One approach is to focus on organisms for which current rates of extinction exceed those expected from habitat loss Amphibians are a case in point Thousands of species have declined and hundreds are on the brink of extinction or have already vanished The Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA) lists 427 species as critically endangered including 122 species that are possibly extinct A majority of the former and nearly all of the latter have declined even in seemingly undisturbed environments The causes have remained unclear in part because of their complexity Although pathogens are implicated their relationship to environmental change is poorly understood Here we test the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis which predicts declines in unusually warm years but does not assume a particular disease or chain of events Recent studies have considered this idea1 yet data have not permitted a geographically broad test that examines landscape alteration global warming and climate fluctuations on the timescale of El Nintildeo Suffering widespread extinctions often despite habitat protection harlequin frogs (Atelopus) afford such a test A new database produced by 75 researchers documents the case in unprecedented detail owing to the nature of these members of the toad family (Bufonidae) Brightly coloured and active during the day

West Coast Publishing 14Warming Impacts and Takeouts

near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

West Coast Publishing 15Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 13Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Extinction 1 Rapid climate change could drive most species to extinctionJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfThere are millions of species of plants and animals on Earth These species depend upon each other in a tangled web of interactions that humans are only beginning to fathom Each species lives and can survive only within a specific climatic zone When climate changes species migrate in an attempt to stay within their climatic niche However large rapid climate change can drive most of the species on the planet to extinction Geologic records indicate that mass extinctions with loss of more than half of existing species occurred several times in the Earthrsquos history New species developed but that process required hundreds of thousands even millions of years If we destroy a large portion of the species of creation those that have existed on Earth in recent millennia the Earth will be a far more desolate planet for as many generations of humanity as we can imagine

2 Global warming is the pre-eminent threat to global biodiversityJay Malcolm et al Professor of Forestry at the University of Toronto April 2006 Conservation Biology p 538Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale We used major vegetation types ( biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not and (4) different migration capabilities Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships In addition average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years Projected percent extinctions ranged from lt1 to 43 of the endemic biota (average 116) with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates in some scenarios however hotspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region Caribbean Indo-Burma Mediterranean Basin Southwest Australia and Tropical Andes where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planetrsquos biodiversity

3 Warming risks widespread species extinctionAlan Pounds et al with the Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation January 12 2006 Nature p 161Humans are altering the Earths climate and thus the workings of living systems including pathogens and their hosts Among the predicted outcomes is the extinction of many species but detecting such an effect is difficult against a backdrop of other changes especially habitat destruction One approach is to focus on organisms for which current rates of extinction exceed those expected from habitat loss Amphibians are a case in point Thousands of species have declined and hundreds are on the brink of extinction or have already vanished The Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA) lists 427 species as critically endangered including 122 species that are possibly extinct A majority of the former and nearly all of the latter have declined even in seemingly undisturbed environments The causes have remained unclear in part because of their complexity Although pathogens are implicated their relationship to environmental change is poorly understood Here we test the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis which predicts declines in unusually warm years but does not assume a particular disease or chain of events Recent studies have considered this idea1 yet data have not permitted a geographically broad test that examines landscape alteration global warming and climate fluctuations on the timescale of El Nintildeo Suffering widespread extinctions often despite habitat protection harlequin frogs (Atelopus) afford such a test A new database produced by 75 researchers documents the case in unprecedented detail owing to the nature of these members of the toad family (Bufonidae) Brightly coloured and active during the day

West Coast Publishing 14Warming Impacts and Takeouts

near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

West Coast Publishing 15Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

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A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

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A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

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for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

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A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

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A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 14Warming Impacts and Takeouts

near streams most are readily observed and identified For the first time data indicate when each of numerous species was seen for the last time

West Coast Publishing 15Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

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for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

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A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 15Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise 1 Sea level rise from warming will be 1000 times worse than KatrinaJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdf p 3The most threatening tipping point in the climate system is the potential instability of large ice sheets especially West Antarctica and Greenland If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points dynamical collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and part of the Greenland ice sheet could proceed out of our control The ice sheet tipping point is especially dangerous because West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea level rise Hundreds of millions of people live less than 20 feet above sea level Thus the number of people affected would be 1000 times greater than in the New Orleans Katrina disaster Although Iowa would not be directly affected by sea level rise repercussions would be worldwide

2 Warming will cause devastating sea level riseJames Hansen director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies October 2007 accessed May 12 2008 httpwwwcolumbiaedu~jeh1IowaCoal_071105pdfModern societies have constructed enormous infrastructure on todayrsquos coastlines More than a billion people live within 25 meter elevation of sea level This includes practically the entire nation of Bangladesh almost 300 million Chinese and large populations in India and Egypt as well as many historical cities in the developed world including major European cities many cities in the Far East all major East Coast cities in the United States among hundreds of other cities in the world Q How much will sea level rise if global temperature increases several degrees A Our best guide for the eventual long-term sea level change is the Earthrsquos history The last time the Earth was 2-3degC warmer than today about 3 million years ago sea level was about 25 meters higher The last time the planet was 5degC warmer just prior to the glaciation of Antarctica about 35 million years ago there were no large ice sheets on the planet Given todayrsquos ocean basins if the ice sheets melt entirely sea level will rise about 70 meters (about 230 feet)

3 Sea level rise will destroy whole nations and their culturesStefan Lovgren writer for National Geographic News April 26 2004 National Geographic accessed May 15 2008 httpnewsnationalgeographiccomnews2004040420_040420_earthdayhtmlHowever the biggest danger many experts warn is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) But thats nothing compared to what would happen if for example Greenlands massive ice sheet were to melt The consequences would be catastrophic said Jonathan Overpeck director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson Even with a small sea level rise were going to destroy whole nations and their cultures that have existed for thousands of years

4 Sea level rise will be twice as high as previously estimatedScienceDaily February 12 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwsciencedailycomreleases200802080211172517htmA comprehensive new study authored by University at Buffalo scientists and their colleagues for the first time documents in detail the dynamics of parts of Greenlands ice sheet important data that have long been missing from the ice sheet models on which projections about sea level rise and global warming are based The research also demonstrates how remote sensing and digital imaging techniques can produce rich datasets without field data in some cases Traditionally ice sheet models are very simplified according to Beata Csatho PhD assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper Ice sheet models usually dont include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature said Csatho This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise more detailed data The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic Csatho said especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting she said

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 16Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Conflict 1 Warming will cause resource conflict around the globeMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355By any reckoning global climate change poses a threat to world security writ large Because it will imperil food production around the world and could render many heavily populated areas uninhabitable it has the potential to endan- ger the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of mil- lions of people So far most expertsrsquo warnings have naturally tended to focus on the large-scale non- traditional security implications of global warming mass starvation resulting from persistent drought humanitarian disasters caused by severe hurricane and typhoon activity the inundation of coastal cit- ies and so on Just as likely however is an increase in more familiar security threats war insurgency ethnic conflict state collapse and civil violence The Nobel committee affirmed as much in Octo- ber when it awarded the Peace Prize to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their efforts to raise aware- ness about global warming The prize committee cited ldquoincreased danger of violent conflicts and wars within and between statesrdquo Climate change will increase the risk of conflict because it is almost certain to diminish the supply of vital resourcesmdashnotably food water and arable landmdashin areas of the planet that already are suffer- ing from resource scarcity thus increasing the risk that desperate groups will fight among themselves for whatever remains of the means of survival In wealthier societies such conflicts can be mitigated by food and housing subsidies provided by the central governments and by robust schemes for relocation and reconstruction In poorer countries where little or no such capacity exists the conflicts are more likely to be decided by ethnic or religious militias and the power of the gun

2 Climate change will cause violent conflictsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 355Violent conflict over vital resources has of course been a characteristic of the human condition since very ancient times Archaeological remains and the oldest written records attest to the fact that early human communities fought for control over prime growing areas hunting zones timber stands and so on A growing body of evidence also sug- gests that severe climate changesmdashfor example the ldquolittle Ice Agerdquo of circa ad 1300ndash1700mdashhave tended to increase the risk of resource-related conflict Ste- ven A LeBlanc of the Peabody Museum of Archae- ology and Ethnology at Harvard has noted for example that conflict among the Anasazi people of the American Southwest appears to have increased substantially with the cooling trend (and reduced food output) of the early 1300s as indicated by the abandonment of exposed valley-floor settlements in favor of more defensible cliff dwellings

3 Warming risks food scarcity and conflict across AfricaMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 356-357The pivotal relationship between climate change and the coping capacity of affected states will be especially pronounced in Africa That continent is expected to suffer disproportionately from the direst effects of global warmingmdashespecially from prolonged drought and water scarcitymdashand it pos- sesses the least capacity to mitigate these impacts According to Working Group II as early as 2020 between 75 million and 250 million Africans are expected to face increased water scarcity as a result of climate change by the 2050s this number is projected to range between 350 and 600 mil- lion people Because food production in Africa is already stretched to the limit the decline in water availability will reduce crop yields and greatly increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition According to the Working Group II report yields from rain-fed agriculture in some African coun- tries could be reduced by as much as half by 2020 Increased rural unrest and conflicts over land are a likely result

4 Climate change will trigger North-South conflictMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 357-358Add climate change to the equation and the picture becomes much much worse While most of the worldrsquos regions are likely to experience a reduction in the supply of at least some critical resources it is true that a few could see limited gains from global warming Some countries in the far north for example could benefit from more rainfall and longer growing seasons allowing for increased food output Russia also hopes to ben- efit from the melting of the Arctic ice cap which theoretically would allow oil and natural gas drill- ing in areas now covered year-round by thick ice But even if these hypothetical advantages are not outweighed by other less desirable consequences of global warming any perception of a widening chasm between the ldquowinnersrdquo and ldquolosersrdquo of cli-

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 17Warming Impacts and Takeouts

mate changemdashwhen the overwhelming majority of the worldrsquos population is likely to fall in the latter categorymdashcould direct angry and potentially lethal attention toward the former

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 18Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Water Wars 1 Warming will cause global water warsMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 358Global climate change is also likely to increase the risk of conflict over vital supplies of fresh water Although states have rarely gone to war over dis- puted water supplies in recent times they have often threatened to do so and the risk factors appear to be growing Water scarcity and stress are already a significant problem in many parts of the world and are expected to become more so as a result of population growth urbanization and industrial- ization Furthermore many of the countries with the greatest exposure to water scarcity are highly dependent on river sys- tems that arise outside their territory and pass through nations with which they have poor or unfriendly relations Egypt for example is almost entirely dependent for its fresh water on the Nile which arises in Central Africa (in the case of the White Nile) and Ethiopia (in the case of the Blue Nile) Iraq and Syria both depend for much of their water on the Tigris and Euphrates which originate in Turkey Israel relies on the Jordan River which originates in part in Lebanon and Syria

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 19Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- State Failure 1 Warming will cause state failureMichael Klare professor at Hampshire College November 2007 Current History p 359-360Climate change will contribute to the propen- sity for weak states to collapse and give rise to militia rule and ethnic conflict for a variety of reasons Consider any nation in the tropical or sub-temperate regions that depends for a sig- nificant share of its gross domestic product on farming herding forestry and fishing and that encompasses within its population more than one major ethnic religious or linguistic community As indicated in the report of Working Group II global warming is likely to harm some if not all of these livelihoods though not to the same extent and not all at once Also some outlying parts of the country may become virtually uninhabitable forcing people to migrate to the major city (or cit- ies) often the capital or major port or to areas more fortunate which may be occupied by peo- ple of a different ethnicity (or religion language group and so forth) The decline in farming fishing and other livelihoods will contribute to a reduction in gdp diminishing the revenues of the central government and thus its ability to shoul- der additional burdens Meanwhile the move- ment of desperate refugees to the cities or other areas will produce an enormous need for relief services and exacerbate inter-group tensions All this would be a Herculean challenge for even the most affluent and capable governments as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed Americans For poor weak and divided gov- ernments the challenge could well prove insur- mountable As states collapse under the strain what might be called the ldquoMogadishu effectrdquo will kick in Armed groups will coalesce around clans tribes village ties and so on as each group strives to ensure its own survival at whatever price in bullets and blood It is in precisely these circum- stances moreover that extremist movements take root With food and housing in short supply and city streets clogged with refugees it is easy for a demagogue to blame another group or tribe for his own grouprsquos misfortunes and to call for vio- lent action to redress grievances

2 Warming is a bigger threat than terrorismCNNcom February 6 2004 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwcnncom2004WORLDamericas0205canadaenvironmentreutindexhtmlGlobal warming poses a greater long-term threat to humanity than terrorism because it could force hundreds of millions from their homes and trigger an economic catastrophe Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson said Current preoccupation is with terrorism but in the long term climate change will outweigh terrorism as an issue for the international community he said Terrorism will come and go it has in the pastand its very important But climate change is going to make some very fundamental changes to human existence on the planet

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 20Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Disease Spread 1 Warming leads to global spread of infectious diseaseHans Baer Lecturer in the School of Anthropology Geography and Environmental Studies and the Centre for Health and Society at the University of Melbourne April 2008 The Australian Journal of Anthropology p 60Global warming appears to be the primary impetus behind the spread of infectious- borne diseases to environments north and south of the equator and heat waves that threaten the lives and health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and the sick Global warming has been implicated in the resurgence of a number of epidemics including malaria in various parts of the world cholera in Latin America in 1991 pneumonic plague in India in 1994 and hantavirus epidemic in the Southwest of the United States also in 1994 Air pollution linked to longer warmer summers particularly affects those suffering from respiratory problems such as asthma Given the health consequences of global warming we can speak of the diseases of global warming (Singer and Baer 2007 190-193) These would not necessarily be new diseases although they might include any tropical disease (eg malaria and dengue fever) that spreads to new places and peoples because of global warming as well as the detrimental health effects of failing food security due to desertification of pastoral areas and flooding of agricultural lands

2 Global warming will undermine public health globallyJonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Studies amp Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin- Madison April 10 2008 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Health Education Labor and PensionsGlobal warming is unlike many other health threats with which we have confronted because unlike single agent toxins or microbes climate change affects multiple pathways of harmful exposures to our health Climate change can affect human health either from direct heatwaves and severe storms to ground level smog ozone pollution and airborne allergens as well as many climate- sensitive infectious diseases Disease risks originating outside the US must also be considered because we live in a very globalized world Many poor nations of the world are expected to suffer even more health consequences due to climate change compared to the US With global trade and transport however disease flare-ups in any part of the world can potentially reach the US Additionally climate extremes eg droughts and storms can further stress environmental resources by destabilizing economies and potentially creating security risks both internally and to other nations

3 Warming will cause massive spread of infectious diseaseMSNBC November 14 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwmsnbcmsncomid15717706A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world health experts reported Tuesday citing surges in Kenya China and Europe of such diseases as malaria heart ailments and dengue fever ldquoClimate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the worldrdquo said Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum of the World Health Organization ldquoThe impacts may already be significantrdquo Kristie L Ebi an American public health consultant for the agency warned ldquoclimate change could overwhelm public health servicesrdquo

4 Warming will cause spread of water borne diseaseRobert T Watson et al Chief Scientist for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank August 2005 Journal of Environmental Monitoring p 838Water-borne disease Water-borne diseases have long been considered to be a major public health problem throughout the world especially in developing countries In general these include such serious diseases as cholera cyclospora cryptosporidiosis campylobac- ter and leptospirosis One of the effects of climate change is the increased incidence of local extreme weather episodes includ- ing extreme precipitation events For these observations in the United States over the last 100 years indicate that precipitation events with more than two inches of rain in 24 hours have increased by about 20 (Karl and Knight24) Studies of precipitation in the 18 hydrological regions in the United States show a strong correlation between the incidence of the out- break of water-borne disease and the occurrence of extreme levels of precipitation (in the upper 10-percentile and within a two month time lag) (Curriero et al25) By way of illustration one notorious such episode was the cryptosporidium outbreak in the city of Milwaukee Wisconsin in 1993 (Fox and Lytle26) with more than 400 000 cases reported contributing to more than 100 fatalities This outbreak was preceded by the heaviest rainfall in that area for 50 years resulting in a large discharge of waste and storm overflow water As this sort of episode is likely to increase

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

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A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 21Warming Impacts and Takeouts

during the expected continued climate change in the decades ahead it is sobering that one study for an agricultural region in the United States showed that over 60 of livestock operations tested positive for crypto oocysts (the dormant form of cryptosporidium) in manure (Graczyk et al27)

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 22Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Severe Storms 1 Global warming will cause severe stormsClimate Change Secretariat (UNFCC) 2007 Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries p 8As a result of global warming the type frequency and intensity of extreme events such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) floods droughts and heavy precipitation events are expected to rise even with relatively small average temperature increases Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed for example increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events (Meehl et al 2007)

2 Warming will increase tropical storm frequency and intensityMatthew Zinn Environmental Law Fellow California Center for Environmental Law and Policy University of California Berkeley 2007 Ecological Law Quarterly p 78-79Widespread speculation about the possible role of climate change followed closely in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 Although it is impossible to link any individual storm to climate change atmospheric scientists have predicted a general increase in tropical storm intensity linked to climate change-induced warming of tropical waters Consistent with that prediction the 2005 hurricane season set a flurry of new records fifteen hurricanes (previous record was twelve) twenty-eight named storms (previous record was twenty-one) four Category Five hurricanes (previous record was two) four major hurricanes touching down in the United States (previous record was three) and five storm names retired in a single season due to their extensive damage and loss of life As Katrina and Rita powerfully demonstrated severe storms damage the natural and human environment in coastal areas with high winds and storm surges An increase in storm intensity caused by climate change can be expected to increase that damage by producing large storms more frequently Worse still sea level rise caused by climate change would exacerbate the risks of increased storm severity Rising sea levels increase the relative height and thus damage of storm surges Moreover although coastal wetlands can moderate the damage inflicted by storm surges and floodwaters by absorbing rising water and dissipating the surges destructive energy because of their low elevation and proximity to the existing shoreline they will be some of the first sites submerged by rising seas

3 Warming will cause a spike in destructive tropical stormsRichard Anthes et al with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research May 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society p 626However while there are obvious large and natural oscillations in our view the growing body of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in several important aspects of tropical cyclones such as intensity rainfall and sea level all of which can be attributed to global warming Aspects of the associa- tion between global warming and tropical cyclones and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain in part because climate change is continuous yet irregular However in a warmer moister world with higher SSTs higher sea level altered atmospheric and oceanic circulations and increased societal vulnerability it would be surprising if there were no significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris- tics and their impacts on society Indeed the broad agreement between theoretical and modeling studies together with the strong evidence from observational analysis suggests that not only will tropical cyclone intensity increase with anthropogenic warming but that this process has already commenced The precautionary principle argues for further scientific study and better planning and adaptation Research is needed to enhance understanding and long-term projections to improve forecasting and warnings of tropical cyclones worldwide and to better assess vulnerability Based on what is already known and can be projected into the future it would be prudent to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea- sures such as trying to minimize possible losses through enhanced building codes restrictions on where to build and improving infrastructure to cope with winds and floods even if some of the more extreme scenarios do not eventuate

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 23Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Global Economy 1 Unchecked warming will crush the global economyChris Abbott Programme Coordinator and Researcher at Oxford Research Group January 2008 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwoxfordresearchgrouporgukpublicationsbriefing_paperspdfuncertainfuturepdf p 6 With most of the worldrsquos cities and of course ports located on coasts or river deltas there is a clear threat from these rising sea levels and extreme weather events to human life and property and other key infrastructure such as communication transport and energy supply networks Even those coun- tries not directly affected in this way will have commercial and military assets overseas and citizens living abroad that may come under threat The economic impact alone of such losses could be enormous In fact The Stern Reviewpublished by the British Treasury at the end of 2006 concluded that if the more dramatic predictions come to pass then inaction on climate change could cost the world economy more than 20 of global GDP each year (whereas the costs of effective action could be limited to just 1 of global GDP each year)

2 Unmitigated warming will cause economic collapseSydney Morning Herald May 5 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwsmhcomaunewsglobal-warmingclimate-change-could-end-boom-times--garnaut200805051209839549830htmlGlobal warming could have the same economic effect as the Great Depression if handled poorly government climate change adviser Ross Garnaut says Professor Garnaut has written an article saying that poor design or slowness in implementing climate change-easing policies could spell the end of what he calls the Platinum Age The economists article published in the Australian National Universitys biannual Asian-Pacific Economic Literature says the shock of unexpectedly large climate change impacts on fragile political systems could bring about sharp downturns in economies

3 Preventing warming is key to prevent a new great depressionJuliet Eilperin staff writer October 31 2006 The Washington Post p A18Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the worlds annual gross domestic product according to a report issued yesterday by the British government The report by Nicholas Stern who heads Britains Government Economic Service and formerly served as the World Banks chief economist calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming

4 Warming risks economic devastationSimon Dietz et al Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance London School of Economics and Political Science AugustOctober 2007 Global Environmental Change p 311The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be lsquolsquono doubtrsquorsquo the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are lsquolsquovery severersquorsquo [Stern 2006 The Economics of Climate Change HM Treasury London p 188] The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off permanent 5ndash20 loss in global mean per-capita consumption today And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p 344] Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature Subsequently a number of critiques have appeared arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy Discounting is important but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probabilityhigh-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of lsquodangerousrsquo climate change) can matter just as much We demonstrate these arguments empirically using the same models applied in the Stern Review Together the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand and lsquodangerousrsquo climate change on the other raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling bringing together scientific lsquofactrsquo and value judgement systematically But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates Ironically the Stern Review is one of those voices A

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

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for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

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A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 24Warming Impacts and Takeouts

fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should and are built on broader foundations

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

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A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

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for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

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A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 25Warming Impacts and Takeouts

Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture 1 Warming will be a net negative for global agriculture Alex Evansis Non-resident Fellow at New York Universityrsquos Center on International Cooperation April 2008 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwcrinorgdocschatpdfThe fourth and perhaps most fundamental factor is climate change Overall the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global food production could rise if local average temperatures increase by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius but could decrease above this range Crucially however this is before extreme weather events are taken into account and the IPCC judges that extreme weather rather than temperature is likely to make the biggest difference to food security Glacial melting will affect agriculture as well the IPCC estimates for example that many Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 with cata-strophic results for Chinese and Indian agriculture during the dry season Its assessment is also that lsquoclimate change increases the number of people at risk of hungerrsquo and will lead to an increase of between 40 million and 170 million in the number of undernourished people

2 Warming will undermine agriculture globallyHeidi Fritschel with the International Food Policy Research Institute December 2006 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwifpriorgpubsnewslettersifpriforumif17pdfp 9Because it is linked so closely to natural resources and climate conditions agriculture will keenly feel the effects of climate change through changes in both temperature and precipitation and thus the availability of water for growing food Scientists predict that the interiors of major continents will warm more quickly than the oceans In addition current weather extremes are likely to be exacerbated It is likely that wet areas of the world will get even wetter and dry areas will get drierThus for example monsoons in South Asia will intensify while arid regions of Africa will become drier Mark Rosegrant director of IFPRIrsquos Environment and Production Technology Division points outldquoAgriculture is the largest consumer of water globally and as climate change alters the quantity and reliability of water supplies it could threaten the welfare of millions of poor farmersrdquo

3 Rapid warming will destroy agricultural outputPeter Schwartz former head of planning at Royal DutchShell Group and Doug Randall from the Monitor Groups Global Business Network October 2003 accessed May 15 2008 httpwwwgbncomGBNDocumentDisplayServletsrvaid=26231ampurl=2FUploadDocumentDisplayServletsrv3Fid3D28566Climatically the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture will continue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen Northern Europe Russia and North America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe Africa and Central and South America will suffer from increased dryness heat water shortages and reduced production Overall global food production under many typical climate scenarios increases This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of self- deception as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes monsoons floods and dry-spells ndash in regions around the world Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society as they influence food supply conditions in cities and communities as well as access to clean water and energy For example a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australia projects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands which could lead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity This in turn could lead to reductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent significantly reducing beef supply Under such conditions dairy cows are projected to produce 30 less milk and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas Additionally such conditions are projected to lead to 10 less water for drinking Based on model projections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several food producing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years challenging the notion that societyrsquos ability to adapt will make climate change manageable

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

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A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

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for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

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A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 26Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming - Biased Sources 1 Global warming scientists are biasedJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64ldquoGlobal warmingrdquo is a fraud that has been perpetrated by unethical environmentalists by activists with no credentials by climate scientists using wildly inaccurate computer models by govern- ment bureaucracies and by irresponsible liberal news media It has become a religion and scientists who question it have even received death threats One reason for this may be that the climate research establishment along with the entire field of epidemiology has become heavily dependent on billions of dollars a year in government research grants Hundreds of new climate research projects have been undertaken and dozens of new scientific journals have been created to publish the results Absent the global warming scare many environmental groups as well as whole divisions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be decimated

2 Warming alarmists are biasedPatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 231According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Deputy Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere James Mahoney taxpayers have already disbursed $20 billion at the scientific community for global warming work since 1990 That money would not have arrived if AAAS promoted either the notion that climate change was likely modest or claimed that we knew enough about it that little further research is needed Rather it has demonstrably done the opposite in Science arguably the most prestigious scientific journal in the world Science publishes a section called ldquoCompassrdquo that includes perspectives and commentaries which are subject to peer review Since 2000 roughly 75 of those commentaries have been consistent with the view that global warming is a serious problem requiring a massive solution Not one has emphasized the obvious truth detailed throughout this book that warming in the next 50 and 100 years is already known to a rather small range of error and that it is likely to be very modest But the bias is obvious and understandable It is what climate scientists expect Their lobby exists to support research that supports the paradigm that is increasingly commingled with the political process Britains Nature is similar with five recent ldquoopinionrdquo pieces editorializing about the perils of warming and the need to do something about it plus one ldquoeditorialrdquo and one ldquoinsightrdquo on the same Nothing whatsoever on the other side Again nothing here is illogical nor is it particularly nefarious Rather it is predictably human What is illogical is a belief that science and scientists would behave in any other way given the nature of science and the world in which it is enmeshed

3 Peer reviewed pro-warming papers are still bunkS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viAnother reason for the IPCCrsquos unreliability is the naive acceptance by policymakers of lsquopeer- reviewedrsquo literature as necessarily authoritative It has become the case that refereeing standards for many climate-change papers are inadequate often because of the use of an lsquoinvisible collegersquo of reviewers of like inclination to a paperrsquos authors [Wegman et al 2006] (For example some leading IPCC promoters surround themselves with as many as two dozen coauthors when publishing research papers) Policy should be set upon a background of demonstrable science not upon simple (and often mistaken) assertions that because a paper was refereed its conclusions must be accepted

4 Global warming scaremongering is empirically unfounded hypeWarren Anderson et al Research Analyst at the Business amp Media Institute May 17 2006 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwbusinessandmediaorgspecialreports2006fireandiceFireandIcepdfThe media have warned about impending climate doom four dif- ferent times in the last 100 years Only they canrsquot decide if mankind will die from warming or cooling As the noise from the contro- versy has increased it has drowned out any debate Journalists have taken advocacy positions often ignoring climate change skeptics entirely One CBS reporter even compared skeptics of manmade global warming to Holocaust deniers The Society of Environmental Journalists Spring 2006 SEJournal included a now-common media position arguing against

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

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A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

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for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

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A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 27Warming Impacts and Takeouts

balance But that sense of certainty ignores the industryrsquos history of hyping climate change ndash from cooling to warming back to cooling and warming once again

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

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for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

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A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 28Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- IPCC Biased 1 The IPCC is grossly biasedFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiThe IPCC is pre-programmed to produce reports to support the hypotheses of anthropogenic warming and the control of greenhouse gases as envisioned in the Global Climate Treaty The 1990 IPCC Summary completely ignored satellite data since they showed no warming The 1995 IPCC report was notorious for the significant alterations made to the text after it was approved by the scientists ndash in order to convey the impression of a human influence The 2001 IPCC report claimed the twentieth century showed lsquounusual warmingrsquo based on the now-discredited hockey-stick graph The latest IPCC report published in 2007 completely devaluates the climate contributions from changes in solar activity which are likely to dominate any human influence

2 IPCC is biasedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p ivThe history of the IPCC has been described in several publications What is not emphasized however is the fact that it was an activist enterprise from the very beginning Its agenda was to justify control of the emission of greenhouse gases especially carbon dioxide Consequently its scientific reports have focused solely on evidence that might point toward human-induced climate change The role of the IPCC ldquois to assess on a comprehensive objective open and transparent basis the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationrdquo (emphasis added) [IPCC 2008]

3 The IPCC is not a reliable sourceS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p vFrom the very beginning the IPCC was a political rather than scientific entity with its leading scientists reflecting the positions of their governments or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the IPCC position In particular a small group of activists wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports [McKitrick et al 2007] While we are often told about the thousands of scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are based the vast majority of these scientists have no direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the IPCC Those are produced by an inner core of scientists and the SPMs are revised and agreed to line-by-line by representatives of member governments This obviously is not how real scientific research is reviewed and published

4 IPCC is unreliable for three reasonsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p viWhy have the IPCC reports been marred by controversy and so frequently contradicted by subsequent research Certainly its agenda to find evidence of a human role in climate change is a major reason its organization as a government entity beholden to political agendas is another major reason and the large professional and financial rewards that go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a third major reason

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

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A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

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doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

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A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 29Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified 1 Fred Singer is a qualified sourceFrederick Seitz President Emeritus Rockefeller University February 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p iiiSinger is one of the most distinguished scientists in the US In the 1960s he established and served as the first director of the US Weather Satellite Service now part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and earned a US Department of Commerce Gold Medal Award for his technical leadership In the 1980s Singer served for five years as vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee for Oceans and Atmosphere (NACOA) and became more directly involved in global environmental issues

2 Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide evidence is valid regardless of funding sourcesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change September 2006 accessed May 14 2008 httpwebarchiveorgweb20070713041156httpwwwco2scienceorgscriptsCO2ScienceB2CarticlesV9N39EDITjspThat we tell a far different story from the one espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is true and that may be why ExxonMobil made some donations to us a few times in the past they probably liked what we typically had to say about the issue But what we had to say then and what we have to say now came not and comes not from them or any other organization or person Rather it was and is derived from our individual scrutinizing of the pertinent scientific literature and our analyses of what we find there which we have been doing and subsequently writing about on our website on a weekly basis without a single break since 15 Jul 2000 and twice-monthly before that since 15 Sep 1998 and no one could pay my sons and me enough money to do that So what do we generally find in this never-ending endeavor We find enough good material to produce weekly reviews of five different peer-reviewed scientific journal articles that do not follow the multiple doom-and-gloom storylines of the IPCC In addition we often review articles that do follow the IPCCs lead and in these cases we take issue with them for what we feel are valid defensible reasons Why do we do this We do it because we feel that many people on the other side of the debate - but by no means all or even the majority of them - are the ones that misrepresent the science of climate change

3 Claims of bias because of funding are just an attempt to bury irrefutable argumentsRoy Spencer principal research scientist for University of Alabama in Huntsville October 27 2007 accessed May 13 2007 httpwwwweatherquestionscomRoy-Spencer-on-global-warminghtmThe dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself While professional environmental lobbyists are totally dependent upon environmental crises for their continued existence atmospheric researchers and meteorologists have day jobs which are not Some outspoken global warming pessimists have received large cash awards (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for the positions they have taken there are no such monetary awards for global warming optimists Instead we have to endure scorn from several outspoken peers in the scientific community some of whom are successful at thwarting our publication of scientific articles and government funding of our research proposals As long as the global warming pessimists can convince the public that we skeptics are simply shills for Big Oil they do not have to address our scientific arguments The claims that there are no peer-reviewed scientific articles that oppose a manmade source of global warming are quite simply wrong Fortunately the tide is slowly turning and increasing numbers of scientists are now speaking out about their doubts concerning mankinds role in recent global warmth

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 30Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Happening 1 Warming is not occurringJerome C Arnett Jr MD member of the Editorial Board of the Medical Sentinel Summer 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 64The six major theoretical computer climate models used to predict warming are inaccurate They disagree among them- selves by 400 percent Not one of them agrees with the temperatures observed bull Temperatures were much warmer 1000 years ago bull Water vapor not CO is the most important greenhouse gas and solar activity acting via clouds best explains the climate cycles bull The CO changes donrsquot cause the warming periods but instead follow the warmings by 800 years bull Nearly every wild species alive today has been around for more than 1 million years and thus has survived 600 global warming cycles some much warmer than the present bull The Arctic and Antarctic continents are not warming as predicted but instead are cooling

2 New evidence shows there is little risk of warmingPhil Gentry staff writer 8-9-2007 accessed May 14 2008 httpwwwuahedunewsnewsreadphpnewsID=875The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville Instead of creating more clouds individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds says Dr Roy Spencer a principal research scientist in UAHuntsvilles Earth System Science Center That was not what he expected to find All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases he said That amplification is a positive feedback What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback As the tropical atmosphere warms cirrus clouds decrease That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space

3 The earth is not warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn concluding this portion of our critique of Hansens testimony we note that the mean surface air temperature of the earth is currently nowhere near as high as it was a million years ago Neither are current temperatures as high as the peak temperatures of the prior four interglacials nor are they as high as they were during the central portion of the current interglacial In fact its not even as warm now as it was a paltry 900 years ago when the atmospheres CO2 concentration was 100 ppm less than it is today which sure doesnt say much for the warming power of CO2 nor for the storyline promoted in Hansens testimony

4 Negative feedbacks check warmingSherwood B Idso and Craig D Idso from the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp(6) Hansen says doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a global climate forcing similar in magnitude to that for a 2 increase of solar irradiance All else being equal this statement may not be far off the mark However it does not consider all of the negative biological feedbacks that the warming produced by the initial forcing might kick into motion which could cause the long-term effective magnitude of the primary forcing to be significantly less than its initial value Neither does it consider the cooling effects produced by increases in various biological processes that may be induced solely by the growth-enhancing effects of the increase in the airs CO2 content which do not even require an impetus for warming in order to be put into play An example of the first of these ameliorative phenomena involves dimethylsulfide or DMS which is derived from its algal precursor dimethylsulphoniopropionate Very briefly and rather simplistically in response to an initial increase in temperature (caused by an increase in the airs CO2 content for example) the climate-stabilizing mechanism begins with a warming-induced increase in the productivity of certain marine microalgae or phytoplankton which leads to a greater production of oceanic DMS and its release to the atmosphere which boosts the number of gas-to-particle conversions occurring there increasing the atmospheres population of cloud condensation nuclei and ultimately the albedos of marine stratus and altostratus clouds via a narrowing of the cloud droplet spectrum and a decrease in the mean radius of the cloud droplets both of which phenomena tend to counter the initial impetus

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

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for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 31Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and thereby decrease the all-else-being-equal effect of the increase in the airs CO2 concentration as originally suggested by Charlson et al (1987)

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 32Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve s1 Rates of C02 increase are overestimatedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 23The IPCC grossly exaggerates the long-term (though not the short-term) increase in emissions from poor countries It does so by converting Gross Domestic Product estimates for wealthy and poor countries into a common currency (US dollars) using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parity This method overstates the baseline income disparity Because the IPCC projects that poor nations will catch up to or even surpass wealthy nations in per-capita income by the end of the century the inflated disparity in starting positions means much greater economic activity must take place and more greenhouse gas emissions would be released into the atmosphere

2 Declining methane has rolled back the risk of warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpConsider the incredibly important fact (which we discuss in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique) that the historical increase in the atmospheres methane concentration first slowed and then ceased to rise any further at the end of the 20th century Then consider the fact that the contribution of methane to anthropogenic climate forcing to quote Dlugokencky et al (2003) is about half that from CO2 when direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed Taken together these two facts refute Hansens claim for the sudden disappearance of a climate forcing equivalent to 50 of that caused by the historic yearly increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is vastly more than humanity could ever hope to bring to pass over the next decade and even far beyond But might not methane growth resume We dont know and neither does Hansen But if it were to resume we believe it would likely not return to the rate of growth it exhibited previously But it could These are things we just dont know and they demonstrate that one cannot make the kinds of emphatic declarations and calls-to-arms that Hansen makes throughout his far-from-dispassionate testimony In explaining our opinion of the matter - which is that significant further increases in the atmospheres methane concentration are highly unlikely - we note that since the data presented by Khalil et al (2007) show the mean global methane concentration to have been rising ever more slowly in the mean over the past quarter-century (to where it is now not rising at all) it seems to us to be rather unlikely that this well-established trend would suddenly experience the radical change that would be required to return it to the mean rate-of-rise it exhibited prior to its tapering off in the early 1980s If anything it seems more likely to us that the atmospheres methane concentration might soon begin to decline for the reason described in our discussion of Simpson et als (2002) data in the Atmospheric Methane Concentrations section of our critique as well as because of humanitys continuing efforts to prevent methane losses to the atmosphere at various places between its many points of extraction from the earth and its many points of usage (12) Hansen says the planet is on the verge of dramatic climate change Not so we contend for even if it had been on the verge - which is highly debatable - the recent stabilization of the atmospheres methane concentration would have likely returned it from the precipice And if the atmospheres methane concentration actually begins to decline fairly soon - which scenario appears quite plausible - it would remove the planet even further from the verge

3 Decreased methane solves the risk of drastic warmingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother of Hansens claims that is at odds with reality is that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing for several studies of methane (which has historically provided a climate forcing equivalent to approximately half that provided by CO2) have demonstrated that its atmospheric concentration actually stabilized several years ago and has ceased to rise further This development - which was totally unanticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of its last major report and which was vehemently denied to even be occurring when it was first observed - effectively repudiates Hansens contentions about the need to act immediately to curtail anthropogenic CO2 emissions for this unforeseen circumstance has already done more than humanity could ever hope to do in the foreseeable future in terms of reducing the atmospheres radiative impetus

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 33Warming Impacts and Takeouts

for warming and it has thereby given us considerable extra time to determine what the true status of earths climate really is as well as what we should or should not do about it

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 34Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic 1 C02 does not cause warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 4 The correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide levels is weak and inconclusive The IPCC cites correlation of global mean temperature with increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the twentieth century to support its conclusion The argument sounds plausible after all CO2 is a GH gas and its levels are increasing However the correlation is poor and in any case would not prove causation The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2 was rising rapidly (Figures 4ab) Moreover there has been no warming trend apparent especially in global data from satellites since about 2001 despite a continuing rapid rise in CO2 emissions The UK Met Office issued a 10-year forecast in August 2007 in which they predict further warming is unlikely before 2009 However they suggest at least half the years between 2009 and 2014 will be warmer than the present record set in 1998 [Met Office 2007]

2 Warming is not human causedArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 5Hydrocarbon use and atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with the observe temperatures Solar activity correlates quite well Correlation does not prove causality but non-correlation proves non-causality Human hydrocarbon use is not measurably warming the earth Moreover there is a robust theoretical and empirical model for solar warming and cooling of the Earth (8194950) The experimental data do not prove that solar activity is the only phenomenon responsible for substantial Earth temperature fluctuations but they do show that human hydrocarbon use is not among those phenomena The over all experimental record is self-consistent The Earth has been warming as it re covers from the Little Ice Age at an average rate of about 05 ordmC per century Fluctuations within this temperature trend include periods of more rapid in crease and also periods of temperature decrease These fluctuations correlate well with concomitant fluctuations in the activity of the sun Neither the trends nor the fluctuations within the trends correlate with hydrocarbon use Sea level and glacier length reveal three intermediate uptrends and two down - trends since 1800 as does solar activity These trends are climatically benign and result from natural processes

3 Warming is not anthropogenicS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27 This report shows conclusively that the human greenhouse gas contribution to current warming is insignificant Our argument is based on the well- established and generally agreed-to lsquofingerprintrsquo method Using data published by the IPCC and further elaborated in the US-sponsored CCSP report we have shown that observed temperature- trend patterns disagree sharply with those calculated from greenhouse models It is significant that the IPCC has never made such a comparison or it would have discovered the same result ndash namely that the current warming is primarily of natural origin rather than anthropogenic Instead the IPCC relied for its conclusion (on AGW) on circumstantial lsquoevidencersquo that does not hold up under scrutiny

4 Warming is not anthropogenicThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 17-18So whats going on There is a significant body of scientific opinion that finds the sun to be the principal climate driver The suns output is variable and complex more and less intense at different periods A German team has shown an almost perfect correlation between air temperatures and solar cycles for the past 150 years A Danish team likewise has constructed a multi-era match of solar activity (measured by sunspots) to glob- al temperatures Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University a mathematical astrophysicist and past president of the Royal Astronomical Society also correlates sunspot activity with changes in the earths climate Because solar activity is cyclical he expects that a downturn is coming and will usher in a cooUng climate for earth in maybe three decades Actually global average temper- ature seems to have plateaued since 2000 though it is probably too soon to expect the downturn to have begun Still Richard Lindzen a distinguished atmos- pheric physicist at MIT and a leading

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 35Warming Impacts and Takeouts

doubter that human activity is driving warming thinks the odds are about 50 percent that the earth will be cooler in twenty yearsmdashdue to natural cycles

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 36Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible 1 C02 is not the primary contributor to warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationMany studies have shown that the nighttime low has warmed more rapidly than the daytime high in most regions The cause of this nighttime warming however is more consistent with the effects of human development of the surface and consequent influence on the near surface air (eg urbanization farming aerosol pollution) rather than greenhouse warming The reasoning is as follows The nighttime temperature over land occurs generally in a shallow cold boundary layer disconnected from the deep and warmer atmosphere aloft As it so happens the deep atmosphere does not experience large temperature changes from day to night yet the deep atmosphere is where the impacts of greenhouse gases are thought to be most pronounced over time The nighttime boundary layer forms in a delicate balance of physical processes (radiation heat and moisture fluxes turbulence etc) that can be disrupted by minor changes in the surface characteristics such as urbanization farming or radiative forcing such as from clouds aerosols or greenhouse gases (Pielke Sr et al 2007 Christy et al 2006 Walters et al 2007) If the formation of the boundary layer is disrupted the warmer air from above is mixed downward at night leading to an appearance over time of an increasing temperature trend However this trend is not due to a warmer deep atmosphere but to a mixing of that already-warmer air down to the surface more often than before Global climate models due to their coarse resolution do not in general capture these nighttime boundary layer processes (Walters et al 2007) Thus while surface temperatures may show warming these studies suggest it is not due to a global accumulation of heat (as depicted in climate models) but only to a very local redistribution of heat near the surface

2 C02 does not cause warmingArthur Robinson et al founder president and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Fall 2007 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons p 2-3Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3 by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown in Figures 2 and 3 The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature or on the trend in glacier length

3 Greenhouse gases are not the reason for warmingJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationThe basic point here is that it appears that a significant portion of the rising surface temperatures over land as depicted in the mean surface temperature - most of which is due to nighttime increases - are not related to enhanced greenhouse gases but to development of the surface around locations where thermometers reside This is another example of the type of research that requires further analysis with more detailed observations and theory and which has the potential to alter views of the causes of some of the temperature changes now assumed to be linked to greenhouse gas increases

4 Solar wind is the primary cause of warmingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 13There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale Once the IPCC comes to terms with this finding it will have to concede that solar variability provides a better explanation for 20th Century warming than GH effects Indeed solar variability may explain the pre-1940 warming and subsequent cooling period the MWP and LIA ndash and other quasi-periodic climate oscillation with a period of roughly 1500 years going back a million years or more [Singer and Avery 2007]

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 37Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable 1 Climate models are unreliableCraig Idso et al chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change May 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgarticlesV11N20EDITphpZhou et al report that (1) the GCE rainfall spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) observations (2) the GCE model produces excessive condensed water loading in the column especially the amount of graupel as indicated by both TMI and PR observations (3) the model also cannot simulate the bright band and the sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing level in stratiform rain as seen from PR (4) the model has much higher domain-averaged OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total cloud fraction (5) the model has a more skewed distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than CERES observations indicating that the models cloud field is insufficient in area extent (6) the GCE is not very efficient in stratiform rain conditions because of the large amounts of slowly falling snow and graupel that are simulated and finally in summation that (7) large differences between model and observations exist in the rain spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that contribute to the associated cloud field In light of these several significant findings it is clear that CRMs still have a long way to go before they are ready for prime time in the complex quest to properly assess the roles of various types of clouds and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of earths climate in response to variations in numerous anthropogenic and background forcings This evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs in any way it is merely done to indicate that the climate modeling enterprise is not yet at the stage where implicit faith should be placed in what it currently suggests about earths climatic response to the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content

2 Climate modeling is flawedS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 5Current climate models can give a Climate Sensitivity (CS) of 15ordm to 115ordm C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 [Stainforth et al 2005 Kiehl 2007] The wide variability is derived mainly from choosing different physical parameters that enter into the formation and disappearance of clouds For example the values for CS as given by Stainforth involve varying just six parameters out of some 100 listed in a paper by Murphy et al [2004] The values of these parameters many relating to clouds and precipitation are simply chosen by lsquoexpert opinionrsquo In an empirical approach Schwartz [2007] derives a climate sensitivity that is near the lowest value quoted by the IPCC as does Shaviv [2005] by using a different empirical method Cloud feedbacks can be either positive (high clouds) or negative (low clouds) and are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining CS [Cess 1990 1996] Spencer and Braswell [2007] find that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback could be significantly biased in a positive direction The IPCC undervalues the forcing arising from changes in solar activity (solar wind and its magnetic effects) ndash likely much more important than the forcing from CO2 Uncertainties for aerosols which tend to cool the climate and oppose the GH effect are even greater as the IPCC recognizes in a table on page 32 of the AR4 report (Figure 5)

3 Data is insufficient for meaningful modelingS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 9Objections to the surface data are too numerous to elaborate here in detail [see Lo Yang Pielke 2007 McKitrick and Michaels 2004 2007] They have been vigorously criticized for failing to sufficiently control for urban heat-island effects ndash the fact that asphalt buildings air conditioning units and other parts of urban life cause warming of urban areas that has nothing to do with greenhouse gases One study of temperature stations in California found no warming in rural counties a slight warming in suburban counties and rapid warming in urban counties (Figure 11) [Goodridge 1996] Another criticism of the temperature record is poor geographic distribution and sampling The number of stations has varied greatly over time and has decreased markedly from the 1970s especially in Siberia affecting the homogeneity of the dataset (Figure 12) Ideally the models require at least one measuring point for each 5 degrees of latitude and longitude ndash 2592 grid boxes in all With the decline in stations the number of grid boxes covered also declined ndash from 1200 to 600 a decline in coverage from 46 percent to 23 percent Further the covered grid boxes tend to be in the more populated areas

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 38Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed 1 Ice sheets are not disintegratingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpA good perspective on this issue is provided in the 16 March 2007 issue of Science by Shepherd and Wingham (2007) who review what is known about sea-level contributions arising from wastage of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets focusing on the results of 14 different satellite-based estimates of the imbalances of the polar ice sheets that have been derived since 1998 These studies have been of three major types - standard mass budget analyses altimetry measurements of ice-sheet volume changes and measurements of the ice sheets changing gravitational attraction - and they have yielded a diversity of values ranging from an implied sea-level rise of 10 mmyear to a sea-level fall of 015 mmyear Based on their evaluation of these diverse findings the two researchers come to the conclusion that the current best estimate of the contribution of polar ice wastage to global sea level change is a rise of 035 millimeters per year which over a century amounts to only 35 millimeters or less than an inch and a half Yet even this small sea level rise may be unrealistically large for although two of Greenlands biggest outlet glaciers doubled their mass-loss rates in 2004 causing many to claim that the Greenland Ice Sheet was responding more rapidly to global warming than expected Howat et al (2007) report that the glaciers mass-loss rates decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates And these observations in their words suggest that special care must be taken in how mass-balance estimates are evaluated particularly when extrapolating into the future because short-term spikes could yield erroneous long-term trends

2 Global sea levels are not risingSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpAnother way of thinking about Holgates century-long sea level history is suggested by the blue curve we have fit to it which indicates that mean global sea level may have been rising ever more slowly with the passage of time throughout the entire last hundred years In any event and whichever way one looks at Holgates findings - as either two linear trends or one longer continuous curve - the nine select tide gauge records indicate that the mean rate of global sea level rise has not accelerated over the recent past In fact it likely has done just the opposite - in clear contradiction of Hansens adamant claim to the contrary Augmenting the findings of Holgate are those of Jevrejeva et al (2006) who analyzed information contained in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level database using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis Removing 2- to 30-year quasi-periodic oscillations they derived nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions which they combined to produce the mean global sea level (gsl) and mean global sea level rate-of-rise (gsl rate) curves depicted in the figure below

3 Ocean temperature measurements are not reliableS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 19-20In response to the claim that the observed rise in ocean temperatures provides an empirical solution to this problem we must consider the possibility that the observed temperature rise is partly an artifact of the method of measurement As previously observed in the past 25 years drifter buoys have become predominant in supplying SST data But they measure temperatures within a few centimeters of the surface where solar heating is a maximum (during the day) whereas ships (the previous method of measuring ocean temperatures) measure temperatures a few meters below the surface where it is colder (See Figure 20 for an illustration of the different measurement techniques in use) One can readily show that combining ship data with a growing amount of buoy data likely leads to a fictitious temperature rise [Singer 2006] Finally we must deal with the fact that as SST increases evaporation increases even more rapidly ndash setting effective upper limits to SST values [Priestley 1996 Held amp Soden 2006 Wentz et al 2007] But which temperature should one use SST (as climate models calculate) or the generally cooler lsquoskinrsquo Empirically the situation is complicated since rate of evaporation depends also on the relative humidity of the overlying atmosphere surface winds and sea state and the occurrence of precipitation

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 39Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy 1 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates benefitting agriculture and forestry industries [Idso and Idso 2000] lower heating bills and lower construction costs Mendelsohn and Neumann [1999] presented a synthesis of previous studies on the costs and benefits of global warming which is summarized in Figure 26 Mendelsohn and Neumann assumed an increase in temperature of 25degC a 7 percent increase in precipitation and an increase to 530 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide by 2060 which they admit ldquomay be somewhat more severe than the most recent scientific assessment in IPCC (1996a)rdquo They found the net impact of global warming on the US economy in the year 2060 if no action were taken to slow or stop emissions would be positive to the tune of $369 billion or about 02 percent of projected GDP In 2001 dollars this would be about $115 billion The benefits of global warming to the agricultural and timber industries more than outweigh losses to the energy industry or damage to coastal structures

2 Warming will not have negative economic consequencesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18-19Youve also been told that failing to curb our green- house-gas emissions will cause irreparable economic damage to the poorer nations as the Stem Report insist- ed But the report was savaged by economists William Nordhaus of Yale is among those who fault Stern for using a near-zero social-discount rate which would charge current generations for problems not likely to occur for two or three centuries hence

3 Warming will have a net positive economic impactS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 27Economist Thomas Gale Moore [1998] also found that earlier estimates exaggerated the costs of warming Moore used historical data to calculate that if temperatures were 45ordmF warmer in the US 41000 fewer people would die each year from respiratory and circulation diseases The annual benefits of global warming to the US he estimates would exceed costs by $1048 billion in 1990 dollars

4 Adaptation contains the negative impacts to climate changeJohn Christy Professor and Director Earth System Science Center National Space Science and Technology Center University of Alabama in Huntsville November 14 2007 Congressional Testimony before the Committee on Senate Commerce Science and TransportationWhatever trajectory the climate takes we will of course adapt As State Climatologist Im heavily involved in defining and assessing climate-related impacts to our state and the resulting viability of our economy Parts of my state are coping with the lowest rainfall in 100 years Sketchy records show a similar drought back in 1839-40 In general terms changes in water supply are more important than changes in temperature so dealing with rainfall variations is crucial for any society When Alabama was also dry in 1988 I pinned my General Rule of Climate If it happened before it will happen again and probably worse The point here is that by carefully examining what we know has happened in our past add a little insurance we will know how to reduce the negative consequences of events certain to occur in the future In the case of our present drought our farmers suffered severe losses but Senator Sessions has included in the Farm Bill a provision to offer farmers federal help in building environmentally sustainable impoundments to store our abundant winter water for use in the summer and thereby alleviate the terrible consequences This is a perfect example of how climate observations serve as a foundation to inform us of the important variations that occur and what we can do to adapt

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 40Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age 1 Global warming does not risk an ice ageSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpSo how high would the sea need to rise to unground the Whillans Ice Stream and wrest it from the continent In a study that analyzes this question in detail Alley et al (2007) find that sea-level changes of a few meters are unlikely to substantially affect ice-sheet behavior and they conclude that a rise on the order of 100 meters might be needed to overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation In fact Anderson (2007) states that at the current rate of sea-level rise it would take several thousand years [our italics] to float the ice sheet off [its] bed What is more Alley et al say that the ice sheets extra thickness up-glacier from the grounding-line wedge will tend to stabilize it against any other environmental perturbation With respect to the range of applicability of the findings of Anandakrishnan et al and Alley et al Anderson notes that grounding-zone wedges are common features on the continental shelf including the Ross Sea Shelf and that all ice streams of the Siple Coast have an anomalous elevation and stop at the grounding line which leads him to conclude that this mechanism for stabilization of the grounding-line is likely to be widespread Consequently Anderson concludes that sea-level rise may not destabilize ice sheets as much as previously feared which in turn suggests that sea level itself may not rise as fast or as high as previously feared So what do actual sea level data suggest

2 No risk of ice age even the IPCC agreesRichard Kerr staff writer April 13 2007 Science p 190The report also briefly considers potentially catastrophic climate events WGI had already found that in this century the great conveyor belt of currents carrying warm water into the chilly far North Atlantic will only slow not collapse So Western Europe isnt about to freeze over In fact it would warm under the strengthening greenhouse But WGII still sees likely North Atlantic-wide effects including lower seawater oxygen and changes in fisheries

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 41Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars 1 Warming will not cause water shortagesSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephp (2) Hansen says very little additional forcing is needed to cause an intensification of subtropical conditions that would greatly exacerbate water shortages in the American West and many other parts of the world and likely render the semi-arid states from west and central Texas through Oklahoma Kansas Nebraska and the Dakotas increasingly drought prone and unsuitable for agriculture With the significant enhancement of water use efficiency that is bestowed upon the planets vegetation by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations however - which is a fact that has been demonstrated over and over in literally hundreds of laboratory and field experiments - it is by no means assured that Hansens contention would be correct In fact it could well be false - and likely is in our opinion - for the CO2-induced increase in plant water use efficiency that would accompany the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration would allow the same amount of crop biomass and yield to be produced while transpiring a smaller quantity of water

2 Water shortages are inevitable regardless of warmingPeter Rogers Professor of Environmental Engineering at Harvard University MayJune 2008 Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management p 203Rising global incomes and a concomitant increase in per capita consumption will lead inexorably to serious consequences for the water resources in many areas of the globe regardless of climate change This is the old Malthusian population versus resources debate from the early 1960s only now we have India and China moving into the middle classes in a big way Keyfitz 19761113089pointed out 30 years agomdashthat the growing middle class and its consumption patterns are going to be the major problem for en- vironmental sustainability How we adapt to meet these demands will be the major struggle for the remainder of this century

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 42Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction 1 Warming boosts global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen also foresees a warming-induced extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species with many at high latitudes and altitudes being pushed off the planet However as demonstrated by the scientific studies we cite warming - especially when accompanied by an increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration - typically results in an expansion of the ranges of terrestrial plants and animals leading to increases in biodiversity almost everywhere on the planet Likewise where Hansen sees nothing but destruction of coral reefs and other ocean life in response to a predicted CO2-induced acidification of the worlds oceans real-world observations suggest just the opposite

2 Warming does not risk species extinctionSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpHansen writes that continued business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions threaten many ecosystems contending - even more ominously - that very little additional [climate] forcing is needed to cause the extermination of a large fraction of plant and animal species But where is the evidence for these claims Hansen says that animals and plants migrate as climate changes and so they do both upward in altitude and poleward in latitude and he states that in response to global warming polar species can be pushed off the planet [ie driven to extinction] as they have no place else to go and that life in alpine regions is similarly in danger of being pushed off the planet But again where is the evidence to support these contentions In searching Hansens testimony and his accepted for publication manuscript on the subject we could find no real-world support for this aspect of his climate-alarmist thesis What we did find was typically of the same nature as Hansens own writings claims contentions and opinions but no hard evidence Such is also the case with many peer-reviewed science journal articles that promote the same philosophy such as those of Root et al (2003) and Parmesan and Yohe (2003) However as we have indicated in a major study of the topic that is archived on our website (Idso et al 2003) even these studies have failed to provide any hard data in support of their egregious extrapolations

3 Warming protects global biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpIn viewing the warm-temperature projections of the two relationships at the right-hand side of the figure it can additionally be seen that the transition from positive to negative net photosynthesis - which denotes a change from life-sustaining to life-sapping conditions - likely occurs somewhere in the vicinity of 39degC in air of 325 ppm CO2 but somewhere in the vicinity of 50degC in air of 1935 ppm CO2 Consequently not only was the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of bigtooth aspen greatly increased by the extra CO2 of this experiment so too was the lethal temperature (above which life cannot long be sustained) likewise increased and by approximately the same amount ie 11degC These observations which are similar to what has been observed in many other plants suggest that when the atmospheres temperature and CO2 concentration rise together (Cowling 1999) the vast majority of earths plants would likely not feel a need (or only very little need) to migrate towards cooler regions of the globe Any warming would obviously provide them an opportunity to move into places that were previously too cold for them but it would not force them to move even at the hottest extremes of their ranges for as the planet warmed the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration would work its biological wonders significantly increasing the temperatures at which most of earths C3 plants - which comprise about 95 of the planets vegetation - function best creating a situation where earths plant life would actually prefer warmer conditions

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 43Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans 1 Warming is key to protect coral reefsSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpWe have previously written extensively about the importance of not excluding life from such important considerations noting that calcification is much more than a physical-chemical process that can be accurately described by a set of equations Rather we have emphasized time and again that coral calcification is a biologically-driven physical-chemical process that may not yet be amenable to explicit mathematical description In fact we reported several years ago (Idso et al 2000) - based on proper citations of the scientific literature - that the photosynthetic activity of zooxanthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically-expensive process of calcification and that considerable evidence shows that long-term reef calcification rates generally rise in direct proportion to increases in rates of reef primary production which suggests that if anthropogenic-induced increases in the transfer of CO2 from the air to the worlds oceans were to lead to increases in coral symbiont photosynthesis - as atmospheric CO2 enrichment generally does for nearly all land plants - it is likely that increases in coral calcification rates would occur as well

2 Studies show warming protects ocean biodiversitySherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpTwo other scientists that investigated the subject by means of real-world data were Bessat and Buigues (2001) who worked with a core retrieved from a massive Porites coral on the French Polynesian island of Moorea that covered the period 1801-1990 and who said they undertook the study because they thought it may provide information about long-term variability in the performance of coral reefs allowing unnatural changes to be distinguished from natural variability This effort revealed that a 1degC increase in water temperature increased coral calcification rate by 45 and that instead of a 6-14 decline in calcification over the past 100 years computed by the Kleypas group the calcification has increased And to further emphasize this point they reiterated that their results do not confirm those predicted by the Kleypas et al (1999) model which is merely an earlier version of the Orr et al model

3 C02 boosts growth of ocean phytoplanktonSherwood B Idso President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change and Craig D Idso founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change June 6 2007 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwco2scienceorgeducationreportshansenhansencritiquephpBefore concluding our discussion of this important subject however we briefly switch our focus from corals to phytoplankton beginning with a review of the work of Riebesell (2004) who notes that doubling present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations is predicted to cause a 20-40 reduction in biogenic calcification of the predominant calcifying organisms the corals coccolithophorids and foraminifera In a significant challenge to this climate-alarmist dogma Riebesell notes that a moderate increase in CO2 actually facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of certain phytoplankton such as the coccolithophorids as represented by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica In fact Riebesell writes that CO2-sensitive taxa such as the calcifying coccolithophorids should therefore benefit more [our italics] from the present increase in atmospheric CO2 compared to the non-calcifying diatoms

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 44Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease 1 Warming is an insignificant contributor to disease spreadPaul Reiter director of the Insects and Infectious Diseases Unit of the Institut Pasteur and Roger Bate resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute April 10 2008 Wall Street Journal p A14The concept of malaria as a tropical infection is nonsense It is a disease of the poor Alarmists in the richest countries peddle the notion that the increase in malaria in poor countries is due to global warming and that this will eventually cause malaria to spread to areas that were previously malaria free Thats a misrepresentation of the facts and disingenuous when packaged with opposition to the cheapest and best insecticide to combat malaria -- DDT It is true that malaria has been increasing at an alarming rate in parts of Africa and elsewhere in the world Scientists ascribe this increase to many factors including population growth deforestation rice cultivation in previously uncultivated upland marshes clustering of populations around these marshes and large numbers of people who have fled their homes because of civil strife The evolution of drug- resistant parasites and insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and the cessation of mosquito-control operations are also factors Of course temperature is a factor in the transmission of mosquito- borne diseases and future incidence may be affected if the worlds climate continues to warm But throughout history the most critical factors in the spread or eradication of disease has been human behavior (shifting population centers changing farming methods and the like) and living standards Poverty has been and remains the worlds greatest killer Serious scientists rarely engage in public quarrels Alarmists are therefore often unopposed in offering simplicity in place of complexity ideology in place of scientific dialogue and emotion in place of dry perspective The alarmists will likely steal the show on Capitol Hill today But anyone truly worried about malaria in impoverished countries would do well to focus on improving human living conditions not the weather

2 There is no risk of increased natural disastersThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Or perhaps youve heard that storms on land and sea will increase in number and intensity and we can expect more Katrinas In fact there has actually been a downward trend in the number of the bigger detectable tornadoes since 1950 we detect more because better reporting picks up more small ones New evidence shows that hurricane intensity does not correlate with ocean temperature

3 Warming does not risk disease spreadThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18Maybe youve read that tropical diseases such as malaria will spread into now-temperate zones higher latitudes and higher altitudesmdashNairobi for example But Nairobi was built when malaria was already endemic there It was repelled with better insecticide especially in Africa DDT The current resurgence of malaria comes not from global warming but from the ban on DDT spraying growing resistance to drugs and poverty

4 Warming will not impact the spread of diseasePatrick Michaels Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute 2004 Meltdown The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists Politicians and the Media p 187The plain truth is that climate plays an extremely minor role in the transmission of pathogens Everything else being equal given a small change in climate some diseases will spread somewhat and others will recede somewhat But to assume everything else will be equal is a poor scientific assumption Think about technology antibiotics genetic engineering and sanitation to name a few things that sure arent ldquoequalrdquo over time and distance Change in climate is so small by comparison that it is nearly irrelevant What is not small is the dissonant convergence between media hungry for dramatic news and researchers eager for a place in the paper or on TV In todays climate thats a major scientific disease vector

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 45Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms 1 Warming will not increase severe weatherS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26There has been an intense debate also whether a warmer climate will lead to more severe storms and to more frequent andor more intense tropical cyclones Regarding storms claims that heavy precipitation events in the US increased between 1900 and 1990 [Karl and Knight 1998] fails to provide evidence that the increase has anything to do with greenhouse gases or temperature particularly since there was a slight decline in temperatures during that period Increases in maximum annual 24-hour precipitation amounts have not been observed in Germany in the past 50 years [DWD German National Weather Service] the Iberian Peninsula [Gallego et al 2006] or in parts of China [Wu et al 2007]

2 Warming will decrease stormsS Fred Singer et al president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project 2008 accessed May 13 2008 httpwwwheartlandorgpdf22835pdf p 26It seems quite plausible that higher values of SST would produce stronger hurricanes [Emanuel 2005 Emanuel and Mann 2006] But historic records of Atlantic hurricanes do not bear out such a prediction [Goldenberg et al 2001 Landsea 2005 2006 2007] Recent work by Vecchi and Soden [2007] suggests a warmer climate would lead to increased vertical wind shear which would impede the development of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) And regarding mid-latitude storms a global warming will lead to a lessening of temperature gradients between the equator and the poles and therefore to fewer andor less intense storms [Legates 2004 Khandekar 2005]

3 Curbing emissions will not check storm damageBjorn Lomborg adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School August 24 2007 Wall Street Journal p A14It has become more popular than ever to reside in low-lying coastal areas that are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather In Florida more people live in Dade and Broward counties today than lived in all 109 coastal counties from Texas through Virginia in 1930 Its obvious that more damage will occur when many more people with much more wealth live in harms way No matter how you look at it however the prospect of $1 trillion of weather-related damage by 2040 is frightening But it is just as frightening that we have developed a blinkered focus on reducing carbon emissions as a way to somehow stop the devastation of events like Hurricane Dean Presumably our goal is to help humans and the planet Cutting carbon is a very poor way of doing that If coastal populations kept increasing but we managed to halt climate warming then research shows that there would still be a 500 increase in hurricane damage in 50 years time On the other hand if we let climate warming continue but stopped more people from moving into harms way the increase in hurricane damage would be less than 10

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 46Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise 1 There is no risk of serious sea level increasesThomas Sieger Derr professor emeritus of religion and ethics at Smith College AugustSeptember 2007 First Things p 18As it happens while there is edge-melting in Greenland and along the peninsula of Antarctica that stretches toward South America snow is accumulating in the interior of Greenland and in most of Antarctica The warming peninsula there is just 2 percent of the continent the other 98 percent is cooling The Larson B ice shelf which collapsed was 1246 the size of the West Antarctic ice shelf which has been retreating slowly anyway for thousands of years As for the Gulf Stream threat oceanographers debunk it Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the UN body that puts out huge periodic reports warning of climate disaster has backed down from its earlier estimates of sea rise from three feet for the next century to seventeen inchesmdashand many scientists think even that is too high

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 47Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable 1 Methyl Bromide is released worldwide as a result of pesticide use ensuring ozone collapse Rita Beamish Writer November 28 2005 Ventura County Star Accessed 472009 wwwcommondreamsorgheadlines051128-02htmOther nations watch as the United States keeps permitting wide use of methyl bromide for tomatoes strawberries peppers Christmas trees and other crops even though the US signed an international treaty banning all but the most critical uses by 2005 The chemical depletes the earths protective ozone layer and can harm the human neurological system an increasing concern as people settle further into what was once just farm country Methyl bromides survival demonstrates the difficulty of banishing a powerful pesticide that helps deliver what both farmers and consumers want abundant pest-free and affordable produce The Bush administration at the urging of agriculture and manufacturing interests is making plans to ensure that methyl bromide remains available at least through 2008 by seeking and winning treaty exemptions Also the administration will not commit to an end date

2 Global rocket launches will destroy the ozone layer inevitably and faster than any emissions ever could Darin Toohey Writer Feb 4 2009 Innovations Report Accessed 472009 httpwwwinnovations-reportdehtmlberichtestudienrocket_launches_regulation_prevent_ozone_depletion_130401htmlThe global market for rocket launches may require more stringent regulation in order to prevent significant damage to Earths stratospheric ozone layer in the decades to come according to a new study by researchers in California and Colorado Future ozone losses from unregulated rocket launches will eventually exceed ozone losses due to chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs which stimulated the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chemicals said Martin Ross chief study author from The Aerospace Corporation in Los Angeles The study which includes the University of Colorado at Boulder and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a market analysis for estimating future ozone layer depletion based on the expected growth of the space industry and known impacts of rocket launches As the rocket launch market grows so will ozone-destroying rocket emissions said Professor Darin Toohey of CU-Boulders atmospheric and oceanic sciences department If left unregulated rocket launches by the year 2050 could result in more ozone destruction than was ever realized by CFCs

3 Studies show carbonyl sulfide is the major ozone depleting factorHarvey Leifert American Geophysical Union May 16 2002 NASA Online Accessed 472009 httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomviewphpid=22397The most abundant sulfur gas in the lowest layer of the Earths atmosphere is carbonyl sulfide While carbonyl sulfide is formed naturally it is also produced through a chemical reaction in the atmosphere involving carbon disulfide a chemical produced by a variety of industrial processes Human-produced carbonyl sulfide has attracted attention as a possible source of increased levels of sulfate particles or aerosols in the atmosphere which have been linked to depletion of the ozone layer

4 Bromine From Volcanoes Depletes the Ozone Layer 10X Faster than any other emissionsUSGS July 28 2005 USGS Online Accessed 472009 httphvowrusgsgovvolcanowatch200505_07_28html accessed 11132005While bromine is nearly 100 times less abundant than chlorine it is about 10 times more effective in depleting ozone Volcanoes are potentially a very important source of atmospheric bromine Other natural sources include certain brine wells the Dead Sea and ocean waters

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion

West Coast Publishing 48Warming Impacts and Takeouts

A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion 1 The Ozone layer is repairing itself and is not in any danger The Australian 5292002 Online Accessed 472009httpwwwtheaustraliannewscomaucommonstory_page0574444086275E270300htmlTHE hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica will disappear by 2040 Japanese scientists forecast yesterday offering a far more hopeful timeframe than previous research predictions Using a supercomputer to model future global atmospheric conditions scientists Tatsuya Nagashima and Masaaki Takahashi from Tokyo University predicted that the next 15 years will see little or no change in the size of the ozone hole before a slow improvement begins in the late 2030s From that point there will be a sudden increase in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere leading to a full recovery by about 2040 The pair said the scientific community now accepted that legal restrictions on chlorofluorocarbons previously found in products such as aerosols and refrigeration products had been effective in undoing the decades of damage done to ozone levels including the creation of a massive hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s

2 In fact there has been no loss of ozone only shifts Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspWe need to get some broad-based support to capture the publics imagination That of course entails getting loads of media coverage So we have to offer up scary scenarios make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have Each of us has to decide what is the right balance between being effective and being honest (Discovery October 1989 p 47) Despite all the press release hype about the ozone hole consider the following facts The ozone layer is not stable it is in a state of constant turbulence Variations in its thickness occur on a seasonal basis and vary according to latitude Annual fluctuations are up to 25 percent Greater thinning (up to about 50 percent) can occur at the south pole Significant thinning takes place at both poles but is greater in the Antarctic Incoming radiation from the sun specifically the UV spectrum both creates and destroys ozone The so-called hole or thinning is characterized not by a total loss of ozone but by a 50 percent depletion which appears annually It is not permanent but lasts about three to five weeks and the ozone is then reconstituted There is no overall loss of ozone Polar thinning is related to the polar vortex a cyclonic storm that forms each year at the end of the Antarctic winter

3 And any loss or gain of ozone is a result of natural cycles and not human presence Jonah Goldberg Writer January 13 2003 National Review Online Accessed 472009 httpwwwnationalreviewcomgoldberggoldberg011303aspBesides extreme cold for several weeks and return of sunlight ozone depletion appears to require the presence of the chloride ion (Cl) The belief persists that the Cl comes from the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) mainly freons but there is no documented proof of this Chloride is one of natures most abundant ions with volcanic eruptions and oceanic storms as major sources So how much chloride comes from CFCs About 075 million tons annually Yet the amount of chloride calculated to be in the stratosphere at any one time is 50 to 60 times this figure If indeed chloride is necessary to the stratospheric breakdown of ozone what is its source There is no documented evidence of CFC molecules in the stratosphere There are no measurements only theory Perhaps recently launched instruments to measure the composition of the ozone layer will remedy this situation

• Warming Impacts and Impact Takeouts
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Real
• Warming Bad- Itrsquos Anthropogenic
• Warming Bad- Happens Quickly
• Warming Bad- Positive Feedbacks Prove
• Warming Bad- CO2 Levels Prove
• Warming Bad- Qualified Sources
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Extinction
• Warming Bad- Sea Level Rise
• Warming Bad- Global Conflict
• Warming Bad- Water Wars
• Warming Bad- State Failure
• Warming Bad- Disease Spread
• Warming Bad- Severe Storms
• Warming Bad- Global Economy
• Warming Bad- Kills Agriculture
• A2 Warming- Biased Sources
• A2 Warming- IPCC Biased
• A2 Warming- Anti-Warming Sources Qualified
• A2 Warming- Not Happening
• A2 Warming- Negative Feedbacks Solve
• A2 Warming- Not Anthropogenic
• A2 Warming- CO2 Not Responsible
• A2 Warming- Climate Modeling Not Reliable
• A2 Warming- Their Evidence is Flawed
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Collapse the Economy
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Ice Age
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Water Wars
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Extinction
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Kill Oceans
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Disease
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Storms
• A2 Warming- Doesnrsquot Cause Sea Level Rise
• A2 Warming- Ozone Depletion Inevitable
• A2 Warming- No Impact to Ozone Depletion