Wargaming: Use in Crisis Management Rehearsals to Meet Today’s Stakeholder Expectations

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Wargaming: Use in Crisis

Management Rehearsals to Meet

Today’s Stakeholder Expectations

March 2017

3 | Wargaming: Use in Crisis Management Rehearsals to Meet Today's Stakeholder Expectations | March 2017

Objectives

Wargaming in

The Military

Wargaming to

Rehearse Crisis

Leadership and

Stakeholder

Requests

Wargaming.

Why ?


“Like a good story, a Wargame inspires, motivates and

challenges. A Wargame is a creative act – it is not simply

another intellectual exercise or a business-as-usual approach

to strategy. It is an engaging and powerful means for

participants to envision the future together. They live through

possible worlds, examining factors that are intractable to

conventional analysis and that could lead unknowingly into a

fatal ambush of their own making. In the end, Wargames often

produce astonishing results that lead to change in the real

world.

At its end, participants know exactly why they took the journey

– and what to do next.”

Frost, Kurz and Herman


Why Resilience ?

CUSTOMERS

In June 2012, 6.5m customers of

RBS, NatWest and Ulster Bank,

were impacted by a serious IT

failure that prevented them from

accessing their accounts, making

mortgage payments and rendered

some organisations unable to

meet payroll commitments,

amongst other things. In

November 2014, the FCA fined

the group £42m for these failures

CLIENTS

Barclays accounts for 1 in 3 of all

UK card payments and provide

services to Amazon, John Lewis,

Sainsbury’s and Morrison’s. A

technology failure could have a

significant impact

COLLEAGUES

Heavy rains in Chennai in

November & December 2015

impacted circa. 6.500 colleagues,

with some 350 required to stay

overnight in the BSS DLF office

before they could be evacuated

safely. Operations were unable to

operate normally for 39 days, at

an additional cost of £2.4m

THE BARCLAYS BRAND

Ability to recover all services in

times of adversity is critical to

protecting the Bank’s reputation.

In January 2016 the FCA and PRA

criticised Barclays, amongst other

organisations, for failures that led

to customers unable to access

online banking services or make

payments


Wargames

A military planning tool,

adapted to make our

organisation more

Resilient.

Barclays is an industry

leader in developing the

first in-house Wargaming

capability


Military Wargames

Used by the military for

centuries to robustly test

plans before they are

executed on the battlefield

Uses knowledge-based

decision making against a

realistic and competitive

adversary in a realistic

operational environment


Military Wargames

Hard work and stress

testing in the planning

phase…

…Reduces mistakes,

shocks and surprises on

the battlefield


The Blue team - All commanders involved in planning, execution or synchronization

of plan participate

The Red team - Realistic ‘enemy’ takes turns to try and destroy the Blue team (not

just the plan)

The Green team - Robust considerations made of neutral elements who have

influence on or can be influenced by the plan

Chief of Staff (Wargame Controller) - Objective, adjudicates, controls the Wargame

Military Wargames

Three Characteristics:

Team Based

Controlled

Action

Counter

Action

Reaction Consolidation

Friendly CoS

Enemy Friendly

Neutral

Turn Based

1

2

3

Get ‘into the mind’ of enemy

Challenge decision making

Course of Action (CoA)

development, shape strategy,

rehearse & test plans

Every CoA Wargamed before

committing to a strategy or plan

Adversarial by nature – pitches

planners against each other

Identifies risks (opportunities &

threats)

Weaknesses & mistakes highlighted

during Wargame and not on the

Battlefield

Takes commanders on a journey of

development and understanding

Use & Advantages by

Military


Get ‘into the mind’ of enemy

Challenge decision making

Course of Action (CoA)

development, shape strategy,

rehearse & test plans

Every CoA Wargamed before

committing to a strategy or plan

Adversarial by nature – pitches

planners against each other

Identifies risks (opportunities &

threats)

Weaknesses & mistakes highlighted

during Wargame and not on the

Battlefield

Takes commanders on a journey of

development and understanding

Applying Military Wargaming

Develop strategy, shape decision

making and increase resilience

The ‘enemy’ = challengers

(competitors, customers, media,

regulators etc. anything that has an

influence on and could ‘destroy’ the

business.

Increases understanding of the

business and customer

environments

Highlights Risks (Threats and

Opportunities)

Prevents ‘group-think’, challenges

assumptions, encourages creativity.

Provides realistic and objective

analysis.

Compliments Agile methodology

Use & Advantages by

Military Use & Advantages by

Barclays

Wargame Hindsight becomes

Business Foresight

Vulnerabilities highlighted

during Wargame and not in the

market


The Blue team (Barclays) – Represents the Bank. Could be made up of: Business

Unit; Group; Functional Area; Project Team etc.

The Red team (Challengers) – Players that directly try to disrupt the plan and / or the

bank (Could be made up of individuals representing competitors, regulator,

stakeholders, public, media etc.)

Wargame Controller - Objective, adjudicates, controls the Wargame, inputs scenario

etc.

Barclays Wargaming

Three Characteristics: Develop strategy, shape decision

making and increase resilience

The ‘enemy’ = challengers

(competitors, customers, media,

regulators etc. anything that has an

influence on and could ‘destroy’ the

business.

Increases understanding of the

business and customer

environments

Highlights Risks (Threats and

Opportunities)

Prevents ‘group-think’, challenges

assumptions, encourages creativity.

Provides realistic and objective

analysis.

Compliments Agile methodology

Use & Advantages by

Barclays

Team Based

Controlled

1

2

Action

Counter

Action

Reaction Consolidation

Barclays

Controlle

r

Challengers Barclays

3 Turn Based


A Practical Example of How to Wargame

Execution

Planning and

Preparation

Post Exercise

Reporting


1

2

3

4

Blue team

(Barclays)

Red team

(Challengers)

1

2

3

4

Players that represent the Bank

(ExCo, CLT, Management Team etc.)

Players that attempt to disrupt the plan and / or the

Bank

(Competitors, Customers, Regulators, Media etc.)

Team Based

Controlled

Free Play

Check & Challenge

One Team

Controlled

Scripted Play

Managed

Complexity

Wargames Exercises

Supports the running of the Wargame and acts as

an objective observer

Teams are not scripted and are free to make any

decisions that they like as an output of their planning

The Red team challenges the assumptions made by

the Blue team, attempting to gain advantage,

undermine their plan or undermine the Bank

Focuses on one team or multiple teams on ‘the same side’

(CLT, ExCo, BCM Recovery Team etc.)

Exercise control team supports the running of the exercise,

controls ‘injects’ into the exercise and acts as objective

observers

Challenges faced by the exercising team are scripted and

inputted as ‘injects’ according to a set ‘Main Events List’

(MEL)

Increasing complexity in the exercise is managed through

the number and nature of injects that are inputted into the

exercise

Challenges assumptions, promotes innovation, develops shared

understanding Train, rehearse or validate teams, processes and plans

Training

Crisis Management

Developing Operational Readiness

Developing Strategy & Shaping Decision Making

Wargaming does not replace exercises. It is

an alternative tool that can be used to

improve Resilience. Uses of Wargaming

include:

Wargames vs. Exercising


Current Status and Next Steps

Group

Resilience

Wargame

Programme

Achieved to Date

• Pilot Wargame held in September 2015

• First full wargame exercise run in October 2015

• Wargame exercises held across all business units

and locations culminating with ExCo and NEDS

participation in June 2016

Next Steps

• Leverage JOC, Intelligence, Education & Outreach

and Near Miss plus Resilience Partner Front-To-

Back Risk Results

• Consider addition of the ‘Green Team’

• Introduce integrated exercising for business and/or

incident response and/or crisis management team

exercises

Wargaming

Benefits

• Exercise the Crisis Leadership Team (CLT) in an interactive, real-

life exercise responding to a major incident impacting our business

with significant customer and reputational implications

• Raise ExCo awareness of what is required and expected by our

customers, regulators and media in major events and the challenges

in managing through them

• Meet our commitments to the PRA to undertake a Wargame

exercise for the Barclays Board and each Business Unit CLT prior to

the end of Q1, 2016 and to the Barclays Board that the Wargame

exercise will be completed by each Business Unit prior to the end of

Q4, 2015

Traditional

Exercising

Weaknesse

s

• Focus on exercising members of the Crisis Leadership Team (CLT)

only

• No robust check and challenge on decisions-making of the CLT as

part of the exercise

• Limited ability to promote CLT innovation and collaboration

• Use of pre-defined scenario ‘scripts’ and ‘injects’ during the exercise

• Limited level of complexity able to be included in exercises


Summary

Wargaming in

The Military

Wargaming.

Why ?

Wargaming to

Rehearse Crisis

Leadership and

Stakeholder

Requests

Wargaming: Use in Crisis Management Rehearsals to Meet Today’s Stakeholder Expectations

Leadership & Management

Transcript of Wargaming: Use in Crisis Management Rehearsals to Meet Today’s Stakeholder Expectations