Walawalkar Green Energy Technology&PolicyOverview 2009

8/14/2019 Walawalkar Green Energy Technology&PolicyOverview 2009

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Green Energy:Green Energy:

Technology Innovation & AdoptionTechnology Innovation & AdoptionPresented by

Rahul Walawalkar Ph.D., CEM, CDSM, CSDPSr. Energy Consultant

Customized Energy Solutions Ltd.1528 Walnut Street, 22 nd Floor

Philadelphia, PA 19103 USA

Phone: 215 875 9440Fax: 215 875 9490info@ces ltd.com

Presented at thePresented at the

INDUS Business ConferenceINDUS Business ConferencePhiladelphia, PaPhiladelphia, Pa

July 14July 14 thth , 2009, 2009

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Outlineutline

Electricity Generation growth & Opportunities for Green Energy TechnologiesOverview of policy tools utilized over years and their outcome (intended and unintended)Recent technology innovations & adoption trends

Wind / Solar (PV/ Thermal) / Geothermal / Energy Storage

Conclusions

Questions?

2


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Electricity Generation & Population Connectionlectricity Generation & Population Connection

3Source: Gapminder.org

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Electricity Generation and Population Growthlectricity Generation and Population Growth

4Source: Gapminder.org


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USS Electricity Generation Mixlectricity Generation Mix

5Source: AWEA 2009

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India Generation Mixndia Generation MixPlanning Commission of India has

build almost 150 GW by 2022 and additional 120 GW by 2032Historically India has never added more

6Source: CSM /NRDC 2008-09

than 57 GW generation capacity in a year


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Policies to Promote Green Energyolicies to Promote Green Energy

Supply Push:

,

of technical knowledge, and demonstration projects

Demand Pull:Government creates market incentives to encourage private

firms to enter the market. These can include subsidies, tax

breaks, or regulations

Direct Vs Indirect FundingEmission trading / tax

7

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US Research & Development FundingS Research & Development Funding

DOD 54%

8Dr. F. Veloso, CMU

2007 R&D Spending $137 B


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US Energy R& D (1974S Energy R& D (1974-2007)007)

9

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135

150

Public wind energy R&D fundingublic wind energy R&D funding

45

60

75

90

105

P u

b l i c W i n d E n e r g y

R & D

( 2 0 0 3 U S $ M i l l i o n

)

U SA

Germany

Large demonstration projects

0

15

1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010

Year

Denmark

Spain

10Source: IEA R&D Database (2004), NREL (2004)


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Changes in Regional Share of Installed Wind Capacityhanges in Regional Share of Installed Wind Capacity

90%

100%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% Europe

0%

10%

Year

U.S.

Other

11Sources: NREL, BTM Consult Aps, March 2003 Windpower Monthly, January 2005, AWEA

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Comparison of U.S. vs. Danish R&D Programs for Windomparison of U.S. vs. Danish R&D Programs for Wind

U.S. DenmarkPublic Wind R&D 1974-2003 ($2003) $1.2 billion $170 million

Percentage of electricity supplied bywind power


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Growthrowth of windf wind turbines (urbines (1990s and990s and 2000s)000s)

o r

D i a m e t e r

( m )

13Sources: European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), Technology Factsheet

R o

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Boeing 747-400

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Innovation & Impactnnovation & Impact of f Spillover Technologiespillover Technologies

Innovation OriginalIndustry

IncreasesannualkWhs

ReducesO&M

ReducesCapital Cost

Variable speeddrive

AC motorcontrol

SCADA(sensors)

Oil & gas,telemetry

Powerelectronics

Utilities, tractionpower

Direct drivegenerators

Low speedhydropower

Advancedblademanufacturing

Boatbuilding,aerospace

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Wind Energy Worldwide Growthind Energy Worldwide Growth

16

Sources:

AWEA, Annual Wind Report 2009


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Production/ Investment Tax Creditroduction/ Investment Tax Credit vs s Feed In Tariffeed In Tariff

US Approach (PTC / ITC)Production Tax Credit provides an inflation adjusted federal tax credit of 1.5 cents/ kWh of energy produced from renewable energy.

PTC incentive payments increase as renewable energy suppliers generate more electricity.

European Approach

guaranteed payment.

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9,000

10,000

W i n d

- Production Tax Credit active

U.S..S. Public Policyublic Policy effectsffects Production Tax Creditroduction Tax Credit

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

l a n

d I n c r e m e n

t a l I n s t a l

l e

C a p a c

i t y

( M W )

- Production Tax Credit expired

Cumulative WindMW Installed

0

1,0002,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

U S T o t a

18Source: AWEA (2005)


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Renewable Portfolio Standardsenewable Portfolio Standards

19Source: http://www.dsireusa.org/documents/SummaryMaps/RPS_Map.ppt

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Net Meteringet Metering

20


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The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009he American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009

The Waxman Markey / the Climate Change Bill, was passed by the U.S. House on 26trh June 2009It calls for reductions of GHG emissions from 2005 levels of using a cap and trade system.

3% by 2012, 20% by 2020, 42% by 2030, and 83% by 2050

Provides series of incentives for energy efficiency, smart grids, and alternative energy sources by creating a new national renewable portfolio standard

6% by 2012 to 20% by 2021

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Federal GHG Legislations under considerationederal GHG Legislations under consideration

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Regional GHG Emission legislationsegional GHG Emission legislations

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Source: www.pewclimate.org

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Disparity in the Intent & Impact ofisparity in the Intent & Impact of Policiesolicies

Policy intent often falls short of expected impactImpacts are often:

Partial / Misplaced / Delayed / UnintendedPartial Impact: PURPA & Standard Offers resulted in solar thermal installations but industry stagnated since then.Delayed: PURPA & Standard Offers resulted in major wind installations but performance was lacking

resulted in setback for industry due to non performance.

Shortfall could be due to misinterpretation of policies or flawed implementation as well as other factors such as significant changes in fuel prices

Source: Pramod Kulkarni, California Energy Commission


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Role of Electricityole of Electricity Marketsarkets

25Source: FERC: http://www.ferc.gov/industries/electric/indus act/rto/rto map.asp

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Competitive Markets provide price transparencyompetitive Markets provide price transparency

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Renewable Technology Optionsenewable Technology Options

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Renewable Energy Cost Trendsenewable Energy Cost Trends

28


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Estimated cost of new generationstimated cost of new generation

29

Source: FERC 2008

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Capacityapacity Factor for Different Technologiesactor for Different Technologies

30Source NREL 2009


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Emergence of Electric Energy Storage Technologiesmergence of Electric Energy Storage Technologies

Source: Electricity Storage Association 31

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Summaryummary

It is important to perform periodic evaluation of policy goals and learn from global experiencePolicy actions depend on end goals

Subsidies and tax credits support industry developmentR&D promotes new applications & innovationsCapand trade / emission tax programs internalize environmental externalities

Criteria to ud e renewables olic can includeSupply effectiveness (installed kW, delivered kWh)Cost effectiveness (kW/$)Economic efficiency ($/ton CO2)Equity (fair distribution of costs and benefits)

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Acknowledgementscknowledgements

Coauthors & Colleagues Dr. Constantine Samaras (Carnegie Mellon University)

Stephen Fernands and Netra Thakur (Customized Energy)

I would also like to thankDr. Jay Apt, Dr. Lester Lave, Dr. Granger Morgan (CMU)Pramod Kulkarni (California Energy Commission)Dr. Rahul Tongia (CSTEP)Haresh Kamath (EPRI)

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QUESTIONS ???UESTIONS ???Dr. Rahul WalawalkarDr. Rahul Walawalkar

215215 875875 94409440rahul@cesrahul@ces ltd.comltd.comwww.ceswww.ces ltd.com ltd.com

Customized Energy Solutions Ltd.1528 Walnut Street, 22 nd FloorPhiladelphia, PA 19103 USA

Phone: 215 875 9440Fax: 215 875 9490info@ces ltd.com

Walawalkar Green Energy Technology&PolicyOverview 2009

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