Waiting in Line to Vote
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Transcript of Waiting in Line to Vote
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Waiting in Line to Vote
Charles Stewart IIIMIT
For the Presidential Commission on Election Administration
June 28, 2013
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• Lines are costly• Lines are not universal• Queuing theory helps organize thinking about
improvements• Research on effective strategies is thin
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Long lines discourage voting
• Voting and Registration Supplement (VRS) of the Current Population Survey– 500k eligible voters failed to vote because of
inconvenient hours or polling place locations, or lines too long
• Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES)– 730k non-voters due to long lines at the polls
• Survey of the Performance of American Elections (SPAE)– 740k non-voters cite lines as a major factor
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Long lines discourage voting
• Voting and Registration Supplement (VRS) of the Current Population Survey– 500k eligible voters failed to vote because of
inconvenient hours or polling place locations, or lines too long
• Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES)– 730k non-voters due to long lines at the polls
• Survey of the Performance of American Elections (SPAE)– 740k non-voters cite lines as a major factor
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Long lines can reduce voter confidence
Election day voters Early voters
Waited 10 minutes or less
Waited an hour or more
Waited 10 minutes or less
Waited an hour or more
68% 47% 69% 54%
Q: How confident are you that your vote was counted as intended?*
*% saying very confident
Source: SPAE 2012
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Long lines can reduce voter confidence
Election day voters Early voters
Waited 10 minutes or less
Waited an hour or more
Waited 10 minutes or less
Waited an hour or more
56% 32% 57% 48%
Q: How confident are you that votes in your county or town were counted as intended?*
*% saying very confident
Source: SPAE 2012
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Long lines can reduce voter confidence
Election day voters Early voters
Waited 10 minutes or less
Waited an hour or more
Waited 10 minutes or less
Waited an hour or more
46% 23% 43% 34%
Q: How confident are you that votes in your state were counted as intended?*
*% saying very confident
Source: SPAE 2012
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Long lines can reduce voter confidence
Election day voters Early voters
Waited 10 minutes or less
Waited an hour or more
Waited 10 minutes or less
Waited an hour or more
24% 13% 23% 21%
Q: How confident are you that votes nationwide were counted as intended?*
*% saying very confident
Source: SPAE 2012
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Long lines can reduce voter confidence
Five states with shortest lines Five states with longest lines
63% 23%
Q: How confident are you that your vote was counted as intended?*
*% saying very confident
Respondent did not wait at all to vote
Source: SPAE 2012
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Lines impose monetary costs
13.1 minutes average to vote
105.2 million in-person voters
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Lines impose monetary costs
13.1 minutes average to vote
105.2 million in-person voters23 million hours waiting
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Lines impose monetary costs
13.1 minutes average to vote
105.2 million in-person voters23 million hours waiting
$23.67 average hourly earnings
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Lines impose monetary costs
13.1 minutes average to vote
105.2 million in-person voters23 million hours waiting
$23.67 average hourly earnings
$544 million
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Basic Facts
2008 2012
Not at all 36.8% 37.3%
Less than 10 minutes 27.6% 31.8%
10-30 minutes 19.0% 18.4%
31-60 minutes 10.3% 8.6%
More than one hour 6.3% 3.9%
Average (min.) 16.7 13.3
N 18,836 30,124
Source: CCES, 2008 and 2012
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Basic Facts
2008 2012
Not at all 36.8% 37.3%
Less than 10 minutes 27.6% 31.8%
10-30 minutes 19.0% 18.4%
31-60 minutes 10.3% 8.6%
More than one hour 6.3% 3.9%
Average (min.) 16.7 13.3
N 18,836 30,124
Source: CCES, 2008 and 2012
110 minutes on average
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Basic Facts
2008 2012
Not at all 36.8% 37.3%
Less than 10 minutes 27.6% 31.8%
10-30 minutes 19.0% 18.4%
31-60 minutes 10.3% 8.6%
More than one hour 6.3% 3.9%
Average (min.) 16.7 13.3
N 18,836 30,124
Source: CCES, 2008 and 2012
31% of total time waiting
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Geography of Waiting
VTAKSDWYMENEDEIANJMNNMHICTCAMAMSNVKYIDWICOAZPAALNDOHUTNHRIKSMOWVMTTXILNYINARNCTNLAGAOKMISCVADCMDFL
0
10
20
30
40
Avg
. min
utes
wai
ting
to v
ote
Source: CCES and SPAE, 2012
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Geography of Waiting
Source: CCES and SPAE, 2012
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Variation within States
Source: CCES and SPAE, 2012
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Variation within Counties
Source: Broward County SOE Web site
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14 min
Variation within Counties
Source: Broward County SOE Web site
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157 min.
14 min
Variation within Counties
Source: Broward County SOE Web site
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157 min.
86
128100
14 min
7458
654448
778826
51
61
61
46
Variation within Counties
Source: Broward County SOE Web site
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State-Level Persistence
1 102 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 30 40 50
2008
1
10
2
3
4
5678
20
30
40
50
2012
VT
AKSDWYME
NEDE
IA NJMN NMHI CTCAMA MSNVKYID WICO AZPA
ALND OHUTNHRI KS MOWVMT TXILNY INARNCTNLA GAOK
MI
SCVA
MD FL
Source: CCES and SPAE, 2012
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The Demography of Waiting
Early voters = 18 minutesElection Day voters = 12 minutes
Source: CCES, 2012
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The Demography of Waiting
Race Avg.
White 11.6
Black 23.3
Hispanic 18.7
Asian 15.4
Native American 13.3
Mixed 13.6
Other 13.3
Middle Eastern 11.7
Source: CCES and SPAE, 2012
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The Demography of Waiting
No controls State County ZIP codeControls
0
2
4
6
8
10
Bla
ck -
Whi
te g
ap in
min
utes
9.5
7.7
4.7
0.8
9.5
7.1
5.0
0.8
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Queuing Theory
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Queuing Theory
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Queuing Theory Prescriptions• Reduce the number of voters coming to the polling place
• Increase the number of service points
• Reduce average transition times
– .
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Queuing Theory Prescriptions• Reduce the number of voters coming to the polling place
– Increase vote-by-mail– Increase early in-person voting– Make Election Day a holiday
• Increase the number of service points– Increase the number of precincts– Increase the number of poll workers– Increase the number of machines– Favor paper over DREs
• Reduce average transaction times– Increase information to voters– Increase the functionality of electronic poll books– Decrease the length of ballots
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Queuing Theory Prescriptions• Reduce the number of voters coming to the polling place
– Increase vote-by-mail– Increase early in-person voting– Make Election Day a holiday
• Increase the number of service points– Increase the number of precincts– Increase the number of poll workers– Increase the number of machines– Favor paper over DREs
• Reduce average transaction times– Increase information to voters– Increase the functionality of electronic poll books– Decrease the length of ballots
The empirical evidence
suggests the opposite
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Queuing Theory Prescriptions• Reduce the number of voters coming to the polling place
– Increase vote-by-mail– Increase early in-person voting– Make Election Day a holiday
• Increase the number of service points– Increase the number of precincts– Increase the number of poll workers– Increase the number of machines– Favor paper over DREs
• Reduce average transaction times– Increase information to voters– Increase the functionality of electronic poll books– Decrease the length of ballots
Mixed research evidence/
popular reform
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Queuing Theory Prescriptions• Reduce the number of voters coming to the polling place
– Increase vote-by-mail– Increase early in-person voting– Make Election Day a holiday
• Increase the number of service points– Increase the number of precincts– Increase the number of poll workers– Increase the number of machines– Favor paper over DREs
• Reduce average transaction times– Increase information to voters– Increase the functionality of electronic poll books– Decrease the length of ballots
The trend has been the opposite
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Queuing Theory Prescriptions• Reduce the number of voters coming to the polling place
– Increase vote-by-mail– Increase early in-person voting– Make Election Day a holiday
• Increase the number of service points– Increase the number of precincts– Increase the number of poll workers– Increase the number of machines– Favor paper over DREs
• Reduce average transaction times– Increase information to voters– Increase the functionality of electronic poll books– Decrease the length of ballots
Emerging literature on
machine allocation
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Queuing Theory Prescriptions• Reduce the number of voters coming to the polling place
– Increase vote-by-mail– Increase early in-person voting– Make Election Day a holiday
• Increase the number of service points– Increase the number of precincts– Increase the number of poll workers– Increase the number of machines– Favor paper over DREs
• Reduce average transaction times– Increase information to voters– Increase the functionality of electronic poll books– Decrease the length of ballots
Appears to be happening
for other reasons
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Queuing Theory Prescriptions• Reduce the number of voters coming to the polling place
– Increase vote-by-mail– Increase early in-person voting– Make Election Day a holiday
• Increase the number of service points– Increase the number of precincts– Increase the number of poll workers– Increase the number of machines– Favor paper over DREs
• Reduce average transaction times– Increase information to voters– Increase the functionality of electronic poll books– Decrease the length of ballots
8-12 secs./item
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Conclusions
• No magic bullet, like 2000• Chronic and one-off events are likely different.• Understand why states with similar
demographics have wildly different line lengths (Calif. [7 min.] vs. Fla. [39 min.])
• Support efforts to help local governments deal with “normal challenges”