Vw and business models feb 2011

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Presentation given at Stanford on Feb 8 to visiting Danish delegation as part of workshop organized by Peter Lindgren of ICI, University of Aalborg

Transcript of Vw and business models feb 2011

  • 1. 2009 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved. Virtual Worlds and Business Models Eilif Trondsen Director, Strategic Business Insights [email_address] http://www.strategicbusinessinsights.com

2. Agenda

  • Definition
  • VWs and Business Models: Conceptual Framework
  • Demand & Use of VWs
  • Supply & Technology
  • Adoption Issues
  • Future

3. Key Characteristics of Virtual Worlds*

  • Shared Space : The worlds allow many users to participate at once.
  • Graphical User Interface : The worlds depict space visually, in styles ranging from 2-D cartoon imagery to more realistic 3-D environments.
  • Immediacy : Interaction takes place in real time.
  • Interactivity : Many worlds allow users to alter, develop, build, or submit customized contentbut differences exist among virtual worlds.
  • Persistence : The worlds continue to exist regardless of whether individual users are logged in and active.
  • Socialization or community : The worlds allow and encourage the formation of in-world social groups like guilds, clubs, cliques, housemates, and neighborhoods.

* 3D Immersive Environments 4. Virtual Worlds and Business Models Conceptual Framework Supply Side/Enabling Technology Demand Side/Adoption; Consumers/Enterprise Create VALUE for users through applications

  • Play games in VWs--for free or using "freemium model". With
  • free basic play, but pay for enhanced play or premium service,
  • and pay for virtual products and services
  • Ad model does not work as well in VWs today, as most don't
  • have sufficient number of users (and many of most popular
  • VWs are for kids)
  • VWs can lower operating costs, including costs of collaboration
  • as well as enhancing collaborative work
  • Open source VWs--enable building customized worlds for
  • particular purposes that can generate revenues
  • Co-creating value with customers or partners
  • Affordances of VWs enable "richer/deeper" forms of collaboration

5. Emerging Applications of Virtual Worlds for "Serious Work"

  • Collaborative work All industries with distributed project work (IBM, Intel,Unilever)
  • Meetings & Events All industries (Cisco, Oracle, IBM and others use VWsand Virtual Meeting Platforms (Unisfair, InXpo, CGS,Digital Reactor, On24, and others)
  • Learning & Training Universities and industry (Silicon Image, BP,AstraZeneca, DoD, BAE)
  • Prototyping and Experimentation Architecture and Construction (Starwood Hotels,Phillips, Crescendo Design)
  • 3-D Modeling and Data Visualization Data centers (computer industry and other high-techindustries) and control centers (Chevron, Statoil,NOAA, FXPAL)
  • Trust Building and Socialization All industries using virtual, distributed teams (IBM,Sun, Cisco, J&J)
  • Focus Groups with Innovators Music and entertainment (Sony BMG MusicEntertainment, Viacom, Electrolux)
  • Branding and Promotion Consumer product companies (P&G, Pepsi, Dell,CIGNA)
  • Talent Discovery and Recruiting Consulting industry and hiring agencies (TMPWorldwide Advertising & Communications,Manpower, Kelly Services)

Application s Industries and Companies (early adopters) 6. Many Types of Virtual Worlds Source: http://www.secondtense.com/2009/01/virtual-worlds-game-worlds-and-user.html 7. Programmer focus (creating a world is complex) Virtual Worlds PlatformsSuitable for consumer worlds Suitable for enterprise worlds End-user focus (creating a world is simple) Multiverse OpenSim Teleplace Protosphere Second Life Grid Active Worlds Cobalt/ Croquet Wonderland Key: Blink 3D WebFlock* Vivaty* propreitary Web Alive* open source * browser-based Sirikata Moondus PowerU Nexus Vastpark* Unity3D* Blue Mars CryEngine 2, UnrealEngine 2.5,nd many moreenabling new platforms 8. VW Platforms as Holistic Environments for Learning and Collaborative Work

  • Formal
  • Learning
  • Instructor-Led Learning
  • Self-Directed
  • Learning

Retirees and alumni serve as coaches and mentors to younger employees, enabling the transfer of experience and tacit knowledge.

  • Podcasts
  • Video
  • Blogs
  • Wikis
  • Others

Coaching Facilities Social Networking andInformal Learning Virtual Prototypingand Demonstrations Storytelling Role-PlayingSimulations Entertainment Area Profile Web Link to 9. Potential for Engagement & Learning in VWs Issue: When will we have "instructional designers" who can take advantage of VW affordances and design and build learning activities in 3D immersive environments, especially learning experiences that cannot be achieved as easily or cost-effectively, if at all, in the physical world ENGAGEMENT Immersion Interactivity Drama Storytelling Competition Social Context Visualization LEARNING

  • Multiple Perspectives
  • Situated Learning
  • Transfer

UGC UGC: User Generated Content Yes, "proof" of effectiveness oflearning/training in VWs is lacking/ insufficient 10. Work and VWs in an Evolutionary Context of the VW Industry WORK ENTERTAINMENT LEARNING/ TRAINING 2008

  • Phase 1:
  • SL focus
  • Sales and Marketing
  • Branding
  • Phase 2:
  • Entertainment
  • Pre-teens and teens
  • Connecting toys and
  • traditional media to VWs
  • Phase 3:
  • Greater focus on work
  • Enterprises recognizing
  • value of VWs for work
  • Better integration of Web
  • and VWs

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 SL: Second Life Media and user interest and attention Interest innon-SLplatforms Todays Reality: Entertainment Represents Low Hanging Fruit Post-2000 Evolution: Expected Enterprise Use Actual Enterprise Use 2010 11. Visionaries versus Pragmatists

  • Visionaries vs.
  • Adventurous
  • Early buy-in
  • Think big
  • Go it alone
  • Spend big
  • First strike capability
  • Think Pragmatists are pedestrian
  • Pragmatists
  • Prudent
  • Wait-and-see-attitude
  • Manage expectations
  • Maintain relationships
  • Spend to budget
  • Staying power
  • Think Visionaries are dangerous

Source: Geoffrey Moore,Crossing The Chasm, Strategic Business Insights Pragmatists dont trust visionaries as references . Chasm 12. The Continuum of VWs--Towards Browser-Based VWs Browser-Based (no downloads) Browser with Plug-In LightClient HeavyClient Relatively lower degree ofImmersiveness (today) High degree ofImmersiveness Flash Other plug-ins

  • Holy Grail:
  • 3D Immersion
  • Easy access
  • Ease of navigation and use
  • Leverage Web tools and technologies
  • Benefit from browser advancement
  • Enable easy multi-device access

13. Innovation and VWs Virtual Worlds Innovation Enhancing HumanInteraction, Communication and Collaboration

  • A tool for Open Innovation
  • Platform for Innovation and Creativity
  • Collaborative tool and for learning and knowledge sharing
  • Technology
  • Applications
  • Business models

Innovation Innovation Learning & Training Collaborative Work 14. Framework for Future Scenarios Will Linden Lab havefuture role to play here and live up to itspromise? Will browser-based VWs improve ease-of- use and removelearning curveobstacle? Will apps for VWs helpgenerate more interest In VWs by enterprise? Will consumers shift frombrowsers to apps on mobiledevices and stimulateconsumer interest? Access Technology User Category Consumers Enterprises Web Browser Client/App

  • Reasons for using scenario methodology:
  • Provides structure for analysis
  • Avoids excessive number of possible future states
  • Uses key scenario drivers

Narrative 1 Narrative 2 Narrative 3 Narrative 4 15. Adoption of 3D Immersive Environments

  • Gartner forecast in April 2007 (at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in San Francisco): " 80% of world's active Internet users (and Fortune 500 enterprises) will be in a virtual world by end of 2011 ."*
  • *In late 2009 there were 1.7 billion Internet users (including738 million in Asia)

How Close Are We to Gartner's Forecast? 3D Movies 3D Sports on TV But Immersive Environments and 3D in Entertainment have exploded in recent years and will Virtual Worlds and video games soon also come with 3D and navigating via gesture recognition? 16.

  • Q&A