Vulnerability of West Africa Agriculture and Food Systems to Climate Change:

The Need For Action through Climate-Smart Agriculture

Dr Robert ZougmoréCCAFS Regional Program Leader West Africa

Awareness Creation Seminar For High Level Policy Makers and Politicians in Ghana, 29 January 2014, Accra

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1. West Africa in brief2. Key challenges3. Plausible future scenarios of

agriculture4. Needs for actions at all levels

Outline

Socio economic overview of West Africa•Vegetation and Land use

•Under-five mortality is between 100 and 200/1000.

• The majority of the countries have a life expectancy of between 50 and 60 years.

Population in 2010 was about 290 million. Agricultural sector employs 60 % of the active labor force contributing 35 % of GDP.

In 2008, per capita GDP ranged from US$128 in Guinea-Bissau to more than US$1,500 in Cape Verde, with all other countries having less than US$ 500

An average of about 70–80 percent of the population lives on less than US$2 per day

Irrigable Land 8.9 million ha

Arable Land 236 million ha

10.3 % exploited in West Africa

10 % developed

Significant pastoral and

fisheries resources

However, West African

economies are especially

vulnerable to climate change

as a result of their heavy

dependence on rainfed

agriculture.

Natural Resource Endowment in WA

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Major challenges

• increase agricultural production among resource-poor farmers without exacerbating environmental problems

• and simultaneously coping with climate change (adaptation).

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To 2090, taking 18 climate models

Four degree rise

Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science

>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain

Length of growing period (%)

Length of growing season is likely to decline..

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Scenarios for the future

Analytical framework• Integrates modeling components (macro to micro, to

model range of processes, from those driven by economics to those that are essentially biological in nature (IMPACT, HYDROLOGY, DSSAT, GCMs…)

• Used hundred of scenario maps, models, figures, and their detailed analysis

• To generate plausible future scenarios that combine economic and biophysical characteristics

• to explore the possible consequences for agriculture, food security, and resources management to 2050

• National contributors from 11 countries reviewed the scenario results for their countries and proposed a variety of policies to counter the effects of climate change on agriculture and food security.

Population and income

1. A significant increase in the population of all countries except Cape Verde – pessimistic: population of all countries will more than double except Cape Verde

2. Income per capita in the optimistic scenario could range from US$ 1,594 for Liberia to US$ 6,265 for Cote d’Ivoire.

3. Income per capita does not improve significantly in the pessimistic scenario.

Rainfall

Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, CSIRO, A1B (mm) MIROC, A1B (mm)

Despite variations among models, there is a clear indication of: 1.changes in precipitation with either a reduction in the heavy-rainfall areas, particularly along the coast, 2.or an increase in areas of the Sahel hitherto devoid of much rain.3.Southern parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria will be dryer

Changes in yields (percent), 2010–2050, from the DSSAT crop model: CSIRO A1B MIROC A1B

Maize

Sorghum

Groundnut

Regional/landscape implications

Farmers and pastoralists may have to contend with new farming cultures including land tenure and changing food habits

Drought and floods could affect productivity and even threaten the existence of plants and animals

along the coast and the Sahel, respectively

Spread of malaria and trypanosomiases in hitherto dry areas in the Sahel

Heavy rains could pose a serious challenge to unpaved feeder roads vital for transport of inputs to farming areas and produce to market

Coastal West Africa Sahelian region

Regional Agricultural Outcomes

• World market prices for maize, rice, sorghum, and wheat predicted to increase in all scenarios, while millet price will be less in 2050 than in 2010.

• The area under cultivation of millet and sorghum will increase, while the area under cultivation of maize will decrease. Production of maize, millet and sorghum is predicted to increase by 2050.

• In the optimistic scenario, the number of malnourished children decreases for all the countries except Niger. In the pessimistic scenario, the number increases in all countries except Guinea Bissau and Senegal

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We need climate-smart agriculture actions at all levels

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Recommendations at regional level• Available and accessible weather data – AGRHYMET • Capacity building in climate science and need for targeted research

for climate-smart technologies. • Harmonized and climate-smart use of rivers for irrigation and

electricity • Conservation of natural resources, particularly forests, and the

development of parks. • Sustained economic integration (common currency & trade policies) • Reliable trunk and feeder roads for free movement of goods and

people throughout the region.• Effective linkage & dialogue between researchers & policy makers.

Expected yield changes of maize in Ghana• Across Ghana: yield loss for rain-fed maize is projected to be

around 7.5 percent. • Some climate hotspots with yield losses greater than 25% (darker

orange). The one in the northeast, in particular, is in a relatively high maize productivity area.

Expected yield changes of maize in Ghana• If maize happens to be the main food consumed in this

area, than a large productivity loss is of serious consequence for the farming households there.

• Such an area should receive high attention by policy makers, researchers, and donors, to avoid a possible crisis in the future.

• In the worst case scenario for this type of area, we would expect high incentives for climate migration, with adverse effects on other rural areas and cities!

• Areas with yield gain of at least 25% must also be considered climate opportunities!!!!

What can be done for farmers living in this area?

• Developing new maize varieties suitable to the new climate. • If irrigation is possible, then irrigation may allow farmers to plant in

a cooler time of the year.• Using agroforestry systems to provide shade for the crops and thus

cooling the soils at the hottest part of the day. • If an alternative crop (perhaps millet) is more heat tolerant,

farmers could switch to the alternative crop. • Switching into livestock, if technically feasible for the area, may be

an alternative.• If no alternative farming solution, government to consider offering

voluntary relocation to a different area, or investing in rural industry that might be appropriate for providing alternative employment to farmers.

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Climate-smart village

Climate services

Weather insurance

Designed diversification

Mitigation/C seq

Community management of resources

Capacity building

Partnership-NARS-Extension-NGOs-Universities-Developt. partners-Private sector-CBOs, Local leaders

Climate-smart villages in Ghana (Doggoh), Burkina (Tibtenga), Senegal (Kaffrine), Mali (Cinzana)

Concrete action at community level:1.increase agricultural productivity and farmers’ income; 2.strengthen the resilience of ecosystems and livelihoods to climate change; 3.and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

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