Vulnerability of Food Systems to GEC

Vulnerability- general definition

• Vulnerability implies HARM or a negative consequence from which is difficult to recover

• Is a function of exposure to hazards, sensitivity AND coping capacity (internal and external)

• Arises from multiple stresses• Is the result of a process• Is dynamic and differential

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)

Change in type, frequency & magnitude of

environmental threats

FOOD SYSTEMSECURITY / VULNERABILITY

SOCIETAL CHANGE

Change in institutions, resource accessibility,

economic conditions, etc.

Capacity to cope

with &/or recover

from GEC

Exposureto GEC

GECAFS perspective: MULTIPLE stressors produce vulnerabilities that are multi-

dimensional

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

FOOD AVAILABILITY

HIV-AIDS

Climate Change

Political Unrest

Floods, Droughts

Currency Fluctuations

Water Pollution

Economic Recession

War

Change in Trading Agreements

Social or biophysicalvulnerability?

• Social: Vulnerability is socially determined and is a function of access to assets or resources, diversity of options, institutional, policy and market structures

• Biophysical: depends upon understanding of ecosystems– Ecologists (ala Holling) mention wealth and

diversity, connections/ controllability, adaptive capacity

Adaptive capacity

• Social = ability or capacity or opportunity to modify processes or characteristics so as to better cope with existing or anticipated external stresses– Function of assets and access to them

• Ecological = resilience = – How much shock system can take without change– Ability to self-organize– Ability to adapt and learn– Often function of slow variables, such as reservoirs

of nutrients, ecosystem diversity or heterogeneity

Food systems

• are social and ecological, or ‘coupled’ systems– Theoretically appealing, but how to describe in

practice?

• Environmental management is function of social, political and institutional mechanisms.

• Look at the potential hazards from GEC in the context of socio-economic change

The Main Elements of Food Systems: Drivers, Activities, Outcomes

Food System ACTIVITIESProducing

Processing & PackagingDistributing & Retailing

Consuming

SocioeconomicDRIVERS

Changes in:Demography, Economics,

Socio-political context, Cultural context

Science & Technology

Food System OUTCOMESContributing to: Food Security, Environmental

Security, and other societal interests

FoodAvailability

FoodUtilisation

FoodAccess

Environm.Security

Social Interests

DRIVERSInteractions

GEC DRIVERSChanges in:

Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,

Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,

Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity,Sea level

‘Natural’DRIVERS

e.g. VolcanoesSolar cycles

Wider Societal Interests

relate to Food Systems• Food Security• Environment Security• Other Securities

Vulnerability of IGP food systems

• Function of: – The vulnerable parameter– Stress– Exposure– Sensitivity– Coping capacity or resilience– In context of multiple stressors– Note time and scale– Logic of why vulnerable (process) – recent history!

Exercise

• In the same groups as yesterday (sites 1, 2, 3 and 4, 5) identify five to eight food system outcome determinants (or activities) that are vulnerable to GEC-induced changes in water availability– Explain WHY!

Exercise – part 2

• Identify five food system outcome determinants (or activities) that have adaptive capacity in the face of GEC-induced changes to water availability– Explain WHY!

Space and time

• Why an issue for vulnerability?– DIFFERENTIAL and DYNAMIC

• Stress can be chronic, cumulative or one time• Different locations experience the stress

differently• How to capture this?

– Define who, where and when

• What tools do we have for this?

Gujarat, Punjab, Pakistan:

wheat dominates, food self-sufficient, mixed irrigation, high level of infrastructure, moderate income, policies

function somewhat.

Ludihana, Central Punjab, India: wheat and rice predominate, slow to

stagnant productivity growth, groundwater dependent, lots of investment, high income

levels, functional policy support.

Vaisahali District, Bihar, India:

rice preferred, low infrastructure investment, flooding, low income

levels, out migration, little government policy support.

Greater Faridpur, Bangladesh: rice dominates, flooding and concern over salt water intrusion, low income levels, government institutions fail.

GECAFS Research Sitesin the IGP

Ruhani Basin, Terai of Nepal: rice preferred, transition zone, seasonal flooding, out-migration, sharecropping

dominates, urbanization increasing.

Tools for space/ time

• Map ‘hot spots’– Ecological– Social?– With GIS layers can show multiple impacts

and differentials

• Time? – Need historical maps, calendars, etc.

• Causal maps of vulnerability? – Problem trees? Spider grams?

Quantifying vulnerability: indicators

• Indicators are often proxies for what we cannot measure directly

• What data can we find to represent the vulnerability of the food system parameters we have identified?– Focus on processes– Go through our tables

• Correlations or significant relationships?

Examples of indicators of vulnerability

• Webhe etal look at three components of adaptive capacity: – Access to resources– Flexibility– Stability

• For each context, determine indicators

Examples of indicators of vulnerability

• Adger et al: set of indicators to evaluate national level vulnerability to climate change

Poverty and vulnerability

• Relationship is much debated in the social literature– Poverty not the same as vulnerability but can

contribute to it (or vice versa)

• BFP specifically interested in poverty reduction

• What can we say for the specific food systems we have described for the IGP?

Poverty vs vulnerability in IGP food systems

FS parameter

How vulnerable to GEC?

Is poverty involved in vulnerability?

Is the parameter related to vul?

Which concept is more useful?

• Poverty

• Vulnerability