VR/AR 101Evolution & Revolution

Charlie Fink

Contributor, Forbes

Contributing Editor, VR Voice

@charliefink

About Me• Contributor, Forbes , Huff Po,

VR Voice, Cinematic VR, etc.

• Entrepreneur (2 for 4 on startups)

• Producer of 30 Theater Productions

• President, AG Interactive 00-04

• SVP, America Online 95-99

• EVP, COO, Virtual World Entertainment 92-95

• VP, Disney 85-92

40 Years of Disruption

• Audio Cassettes

• Video Cassette Recorders (VCRs)

• Personal Computers

• Cellular Phones

• The Internet

• Smart Phones (handheld computing)

• AR & VR

Things I Know Are True

• AR and VR Represent a Major Paradigm Shift in Computing

• Technology succeeds when it makes what we are already doing better, cheaper and faster

• The killer app is other people

• Everyone overestimates the short term and underestimates the long term

• Change happens very, very slowly, and then all at once

Change Happens Very Slowly And Then All At Once

VR And Popular Culture

Tron (1982)

• asdfa

Augmented Reality

1977 – Star Wars

The Terminator

The Matrix

Ready Player One, March 30, 2018

Definitions

PHYSICAL REALITY DIGITAL REALITY

The World According to Microsoft

MIXED REALITY

DIGITAL REALITY PHYSICAL REALITY

Mixed Reality Spectrum

Windows Mixed Reality – Holographic headsets (see-through)

Windows Mixed Reality – Immersive headsets (occluded)

VR todayAR today

PHYSICAL REALITY

DIGITAL REALITY

MIXED REALITY (MR)

Mixed reality blends the physical and digital worlds to produce new environments where physical and digital objects co-exist and can be interacted with as if all of them were real.

AR (MR) Covers Most of The Spectrum• Current Smart Phones

• Filters

• Enhanced 3D Handheld• Depth sensing, multiple cameras

• SLAM

• Snapdragon, Tango

• Headmounted AR• Hololens (Holographic Computing)

• ODG

• Meta

Haptics & Mixed Reality

• Sound

• Touch• Leap Motion

• Locomotion•Axon

• Smell

Immersion

Presence

Cell - AR Cell - ODG R8 - Hololens - Meta2 - Standalone - Gear - Rift - Vive - Free Roam

Immersion and Presence

A Short History Lesson

Man Has Always Sought Presence in Other Worlds

Sutherland Display

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtwZXGprxag

Virtuality, 1992

2000 - 2012, The Dark Years

• Failed Economic Models

• Product Failures• Virtual Boy Recall

• Insurmountable Technical Hurdles• Graphics Cards

• Affordable HMDs

• No Development Ecosystem• No content, peripherals

• Shift of Capital & Interest to Internet, Mobile

Palmer Lucky

Oculus Rift

Sony Morpheus

HTC/Valve Vive

2016 - Rise of Consumer HMDs

Form Factors

Time Shifting to Screens Diminishes Presence

The Always On Camera, The New Mobile Interface

AR HMD Computing On Market Now (Q3 2017) Is For Developers• Hololens - $3,000 developer edition, available now

• ODG R-8 – Under $1,000, Consumer Offered by Megu (China) Q4

• Meta 2 – $1,000 developer edition, available now

• Google Standalone VR (HTC, Lenovo) - >$500, Q4

• Kopin, Epson, Lenovo – Enterprise Focused

• Zapbox Cardboard - $50

Just In Time for Christmas

Disney Star Wars AR Zapbox Cardboard AR Mira Prism

This Fall: Microsoft Windows 10 MR

$300 Dual Use Devices due from Acer, Dell, etc.

Daydream Standalone

• Wearable Android• Inside Out Cameras• Dual Use• Daydream Store• Plug and Play• Untethered• Coming this Xmas• HTC, Lenovo, other OEMs• Priced Under $500*

Vive Standalone

LenovoStandalone

By the End of 2017 It Will Be Raining HMDs

•Google Standalone (HTC & Lenovo) $500 - $750•Playstation VR $400•Window MR Acer, Dell $300•Disney Star Wars $200•Mira Prism $100•Gear VR $75•Zapbox $50

2019, The Real Competition Begins

• Snapchat Specs 2.0

• Facebook “Pacific”

•Magic Leap

•Apple

Meanwhile, Here in The Present

Pokemon GO..

AR Today • Spatial Mapping, Depth (SLAM)

• Google Tango • Enables New & Improved Apps

• Target based AR

• Filters• Snap, Facebook, Lumyer, Masqurade, MS Creator

• Art

• Toys• Holotats• Holocube• Hologrid Monster

• Games• PokemonGO• Phantogeist

Mobile VR Sales Dwarf VR Sales

•Google Cardboard – 20 M

• Samsung GearVR – 6.5 M

•Playstation VR – 1 M

•HTC Vive – 600,000

•Oculus Rift – 350,000

•Google Daydream – 200,000

The Cash is in the Hands

• Microsoft – Hololens, Windows 10 MR

• Apple – iPhone 8, ARKit, VR Peripheral

• Facebook – Rift, Oculus Store, “Pacific” AR HMD

• Google – Cardboard, Daydream, Stand Alone VR (Tango/World Sense)

• Samsung –Gear VR

• Sony - Playstation VR

The Big Guys Are Making Big Bets

7xgrowth of market forecasted through 2020

Source: IDC, Worldwide Quarterly Augmented and Virtual Reality Headset Tracker, 3Q16

196,722 1,937,954

10,252,907

22,672,192

37,674,548

54,003,645

75,972,265

-

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

HMDs shipments to reach ~76M units by 2020 growing at 65% CAGR

These new experiences are poised for rapid growth

• Personal Computer• Online Services (email)

• Shopping

• Social Media

• Smart Phones• Messaging

• Photography

• Maps

• Music/Media

Markets for Consumer Tech Are Driven by Killer Apps

AR’s Killer Apps

• The Camera is the Interface• Directions

• Messaging

• Media

• New things we can do• Spatial Mapping

• Telepresence

• Object Recognition

• Facial Recognition

• Remote Experts

Enterprise Goes First

• Military

• Design & Construction

• Industrial Maintenance • Remote Experts

• Medical• Monitor Consolidation

• Heads Up Display

• Tele surgery

• Sales & Marketing

Path to Success for Consumers• Cost, Ease of Use, Price

• Killer Apps• Social/Telepresence

• Optics/Field of View

• Ergonomics

• Haptic Solutions• Hands

• Voice

• Ring Controller

• Virtual Keyboard

A Bit About Content

Platform Builders Underwrite Best Content

• Fund developers before platform reaches scale

•Oculus 250 M investment in content

•HTC ViveX Venture Fund

360 Video – The Tip of the Spear

• Pro•News• Entertainment• Sports

• Consumer• Travel• Sports

Mobile Platforms for VR Are Not Very Good

• Immersive, but without freedom/agency• Diversion over functionality by necessity

• The DW Griffith of 360 has not yet arrived

• Terrible optics• Screen door effect

• Latency •Bandwidth related

The Epic Battle For Social VR

• Second Life

• Sansar

• High Fidelity

• AltspaceVR

• Rec Room

• Oculus Rooms

Who Will Own The Home Page

Case Study: HTC, Playing the Long Game

• Address the Exposure Problem

• Vrcades, Franchise Titles

• Nurture Developers and Relationships

• Viveport

• Develop technology ecosystem via Venture Investments

• Tools, Haptics, Social, Education, Sports, Entertainment, Games, etc.

• Flexibility

• Google Tango Standalone

• Apple ARKit

Companies

• sdfa

• sdas

Don’t Call Them VRcades

The Future In The Public Square?• New Vrcades

• IMAX VR• Viveport• Tick Tock Unlock

• Free Roam VR• The Void • Zero Latency• Dreamscape

• VR LBEs in the 90s• The mundane reality of retail

323 VRcades - And Counting! • Two Bit Circus

• Nomadic VR

• VR World

• House of VR

• Toronto VR Games

• The Portal

• Colony VR

• Virtreal

• VRPlayin

• Nearby Planet VR

*Source: VRNish.com

*

Predictions for July, 2018

•Neither VR nor AR will hit an inflection point• “Trough of Disillustion” for AR

• Lower cost HMDs

•Phone Replacement Cycle Accelerates

•Apple AR in iPhone 8

•More Compelling Apps Appear

•Magic Leap Comes Out

Gartner Hype Cycle (2016)

Predictions for June, 2023

•Wearable computing, MR commonplace

• The Killer AR app will be telepresence (social)

•Killer VR app is cinematic social Westworld

• Self-driving trucks, cars, common

•Automation & AI growth increase unemployment

•Wealth Gap at dangerous, historic levels

Thank You! @CharlieFink