Voting Behaviour

Introduction

• Political scientists argue that voting behaviour is affected by many factors

• Long term factors e.g. gender, ethnicity, geography, age and class do not change significantly over time.

• Short term factors e.g. leadership, issues and the media can influence the outcome of a particular election.

Long Term Factors• Social Class• Age• Gender• Ethnicity• Geography

Social Class – A Definition

• ‘A set of individuals who share certain social characteristics which collectively give them a similar attitude to life in general and to politics in particular’

Social Class - Categories

• A Higher Managerial (Upper class)• B Lower Managerial (Middle class)• C1 Skilled Supervisors (upper working

class)• C2 Skilled Manual (lower working class)• D Unskilled manual/Manual • E Unemployed/Poor

Social Class – Traditional View

• In the 1960’s it was argues that ‘Class is the basis of British party politics’ (Pulzer)

• Most people voted according to their social class.

• Working class vote Labour (C2/DE), middle and upper class vote Conservative (A/B/C1).

• Up until the early 1970s roughly two-thirds of the electorate voted according to their social class.

Social Class – De-alignment• Since 1979 there has been a decline in the

number of people voting according to their natural class – known as de-alignment.

• Working class support for the Conservatives increased during the 1980’s due to policies such as the right to buy council housing.

Changes in policies &De-alignment

• Labour’s landslide victory in 1997 suggested that the party had widened its appeal to the middle class.

• Some Labour voters may have been drawn to the Conservative party because of their tougher approach on asylum seekers and being less pro-Europe.

Other reasons for dealignment

• Electorate better educated on politics due to better access to the media.

• Number of manual workers has fallen from approx 50% in the 1970’s to approx 33% today.

• This is due to changes in employment patterns, educational opportunities and the rising standard of living.

Social Class – 2005 Election• There has been a decline in Conservative support among AB

voters since 1992 but AB voters are still more likely to vote Conservative.

• In 2005 37% of AB voters voted Conservatives compared to 28% who voted Labour.

• In the last three elections Labour support among C2/DE voters has remained relatively stable. They have also increased their support among C1 voters.

• In 2005 Labour had greater support among C2/DE voters than the Conservatives.

2010 General Election• The Conservatives gained from all groups

with the exception of class DE which stayed Labour.

• Class ABC together – 39% Conservative - 27% Labour• Class C2 - 37% Conservative - 29% Labour• Class DE - 31% Conservative - 40% Labour

Conclusion

• Although the influence of social class is changing and probably declining…….it is still the most powerful of all the long term factors in determining which party people vote for in an election.

Age – young people• Younger voters are most likely to switch their

support from election to election.• They are least likely to turn out.• They were most likely to vote Lib Dem in

recent years particularly among student population as the Lib Dems had promised to scrap Student fees. This has not happened however.

Age – Older People• Older people are more likely to vote

Conservatives.• As people become older their view and beliefs

often become more ‘conservative’.• Age is a factor that affects voting behaviour

but not one of the most important.

Gender• Until recently the evidence suggested

that women were more likely to vote Conservative than men.

• In 1997 Labour changed this with a high number of female candidates and policies which appealed to women. This resulted in 101 women MP’s.

• In 2010 Labour’s support among women fell significantly. There was an absence of high profile female politicians.

• Today in the House of Commons there are 144 female MP’s out of 649 ( %).

GENDER

• Women are more likely to vote for female candidates.

• There are barriers to women entering politics such as family commitments, working hours and a lack of female role models.

• However, it is now believed that women hold the key as to who wins or loses elections.

ETHNICITY• Of all voters those from ethnic minorities are

least likely to vote. Voter registration tends to be below average.

• The number of ethnic minority MP’s is increasing. In 2010 27 were elected, up from 14.

Ethnicity

• A majority of Black and Asian voters support the Labour party.• This is due to Labour’s more liberal stance on issues such as

immigration and asylum seekers.• Ethnic minority voters are heavily concentrated in inner city

areas where Labour support has traditionally been strong.• A significant minority of Asian voters vote Conservative e.g.

25% in the 1997 election.

Geography• In the past there has been evidence of a North-South

divide in voting.• Traditionally the Conservatives were much stronger in

the southern half of England, including the English Midlands. Labour on the other hands were much stronger in Scotland, Northern England and Wales.

• In the 2005 Election, the Conservatives won only 1 seat in Scotland and 3 in Wales.

• In 2010 the Conservatives still only had 1 MP in Scotland, but made some breakthroughs in Wales.

• The situation is more complex than a simple north-south divide.

1992 2010

Short Term Influences

• Leadership• Issues/Policies• Media

Leadership• Politics in Britain has become increasingly ‘Presidential’ –

many would argue the personality of the leader has a significant influence on voting behaviour.

Leadership• In 1997 Tony Blair’s energy, youth, dynamism and untarnished

imaged contrasted with the tired, worn-out, grey and bland image of John Major.

• However in 2005, Labour lost 5.8% of their vote. One of the top three reasons for not voting Labour was that voters did not trust Tony Blair. However the Conservative leader, Michael Howard did not have a positive enough image to win the election.

Issues/Policies

Imagine that you had just turned 18 and the Prime Minister has just calledanother general election. What issues would you be most concerned about?

Issues/Policies

• Many political scientists argue that there has been an increase in ‘rational voting’ and that voters choose parties according to their policies on issues such as tax, health, education etc.

• Between 1979-1992, the Conservatives were regarded as the party of low taxes and Labour as the party of high taxes and lavish public spending.

Issues/Policies• In 1997, Labour concentrated on issues such and education

and health (which the public saw as important) and portrayed themselves as the party of prudent financial management.

• A party which appears weak and divided over key issues will struggle to get itself elected e.g. in 2001 the Conservatives were bitterly divided over Europe.

• However by the 2005 elections, issues such as the war in Iraq and immigration combined with a lack of trust in Tony Blair contributed to a decline in the Labour vote.

Media

• There is controversy over the influence that the media can have in an election.

• Legally television channels have to be ‘non partisan’ in their coverage of an election and give equal amounts of coverage to the major and minor parties in news bulletins, party political broadcasts etc.

Media

• However the national press can and will openly support a particular party during an election.

• Traditionally the national press has shown greater support for the Conservatives.

• This was most evident in the 1992 election when 70% of national newspapers supported the Conservatives.

Media

• The Sun ran a special 9 page feature of the day of the election. The headlines said “If Kinnock wins today, will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights”. % 20% of the electorate read the Sun and only 36% voted Labour.

• By 1997 Labour was able to reverse press hostility and 60% of national newspapers advised their readers to vote Labour including the Sun!!

Media

• It is difficult to evaluate the influence of newspapers on voting behaviour.

• Do people vote for a party because they are influenced by a newspapers political stance or do they buy the paper because it reflects and reinforces their political views?

Media

• Clearly political parties think that the media does influence voters and they spend huge amounts of time and money to ensure that their party is represented in a positive manner.

• Remember that factors such as leadership, issues and the media can overlap e.g. how a leader is portrayed in the media can create a strong/weak image.

Past Paper

To what extent does social class influence voting behaviour?(15 marks)

• Aim to cover at least four main factors – one must be social class.

• Have a balance between long and short-term factors.• Think carefully about a possible conclusion and the points you

would make.