Vorgehensweise von Finanzanalysten bei der Bewertung von ...
Transcript of Vorgehensweise von Finanzanalysten bei der Bewertung von ...
Vorgehensweise von
Finanzanalysten bei der
Bewertung von Immobilienunternehmen
Prof. Dr. A. Stefan Kirsten
Bochum, January 2017
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
© Prof. Dr. A. Stefan Kirsten, January 2017, Page 2
• Principles of Finance– Real assets vs. Financial assets
– Why do we need capital differentiation?• Liability
• Tenure
• Other features (covenants, rating etc)
– Disintermediation
– Financial Strategy
• Liabilities & Equity
– Equity
• Different Classes
• How to raise Equity? – Initial Public Offering
– Debt
• Secured
– Mortgage – Hypotheken
– Bilateral/Multilateral Loans
– CMBS/RMBS - GRAND
• Unsecured
– Corporate Loans
– Bonds – Unbesicherte Anleihen
• Pensions
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
© Prof. Dr. A. Stefan Kirsten, January 2017, Page 3
• Financial Communication– Equity
• Investor Relations
• Formal Financial Communication (BaFin; Börse etc.)
– Debt
• Creditor Relations
• Rating
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
© Prof. Dr. A. Stefan Kirsten, January 2017, Page 4
Balancing Assets as well as Liabilities & Equity
Quelle: FAZ
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
© Prof. Dr. A. Stefan Kirsten, January 2017, Page 5
Key Questions
• Why do we need analysts?
• Why do banks employ any research?
• What drives analysts?
• Why are there different types of research?
• How objective are analysts?
• What pressures them?
• Which interest has the company (issuer)?
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
© Prof. Dr. A. Stefan Kirsten, January 2017, Page 6
Debt and Equity as Option
Equity
Debt
Assets
Payoff
level
Debt (Put)
Book Value of Debt
(strike price)
Equity (Call)
Value of Assets
– Equity and Debt are options on the assets of a company
– It shows the clear relationship
• Equity is the Call
• Debt is the PutSource: JPM
Alternative views on Equity and Debt
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
© Prof. Dr. A. Stefan Kirsten, January 2017, Page 7
Principles
(Source: Zirguezi: 2012)
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
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Disintermediation is like Cloud Computing
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
© Prof. Dr. A. Stefan Kirsten, January 2017, Page 9
Communication MUST be focusedtowards the receiver
Sender
Receiver
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
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Advise
Order
Communication to the Capital Market - Overview
Goal:Out performance
Basis:Right investment decision
Goal: Fee generation
Basis:Right investment advise
Goal: Fair Valuation of the stock at the capital market
Basis:Professional Capital Market Communications
Company
Investor Relations
Capital Market Communications
Investor
• Retail Investor
• Institutional Investor
• Mutual Funds Manager
• Equity-research(buy-side-analyst)
supported by
Broker/Retail bank
• Investment Advisor
• Sales force
• Equity-research(sell-side-analyst)
supported by
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
© Prof. Dr. A. Stefan Kirsten, January 2017, Page 11
Parameters and its influences
Economic Situation
Sector Environment and
Competition
Company performance
Equity Story
Disclosure
Influence of the Company
Influence of Investor Relations
low high low high
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
© Prof. Dr. A. Stefan Kirsten, January 2017, Page 12
IPO - Interfaces at go/no-go decisions
Public
External within
syndicate
Internal with
banks & lawyers
Internal
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
© Prof. Dr. A. Stefan Kirsten, January 2017, Page 13
Case related research
• Research bridges the information gap between
the issuer and the investor
– Macro – Global macro research, maybe even multi asset
– Sector – Overview
– IPO – Initiation report
– Company related – In depth report
– Regular reporting (YE, QII etc.) – quantitative update
– Event news – Flash reporting
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
© Prof. Dr. A. Stefan Kirsten, January 2017, Page 14
Opinions create volatility
1
Cash Flow (FFO & Dividend
€ per share)
2
Portfolio Valuation
(Adj. EPRA NAV€ per share)
3
Stock Market Valuation(Stock price € per share)
• Regulated market
• No cluster risk due to high degree of granularity
• Robust business model
• Market prices for assets are much more relevant than interest rate levels
• Additional material factors are supply/ demand imbalance and sustainable market rent growth
• Only partly driven by performance and portfolio valuation
• Negatively correlated to bund yields and interest rates
• Subject to additional macro considerations
21,7 22,7 24,2~30.0 ~31.5*
2013 2014 2015 2016(E) 2017(E)
0,95 1,001,30
~1.63~1.80
0,67 0,740,94
1,12~1.26
2013 2014 2015 2016(E) 2017(E)FFO DPS
* excl. any assumptions for further yield compression
Layer Development Main drivers
IPO 2014 2015 2016
High degree of stability and predictability of underlying business (layer 1) and portfolio valuation
(layer 2) is not reflected in share price development (layer 3), as equity markets appear to apply
valuation parameters that are substantially less material for Vonovia’s operating performance.
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
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Selected examples
1. Macro research – DB house view
2. Sector research – quantitative – UBS
3. Sector review – qualitative – BNP Exane
4. Sub-sector review – German residential – MS
5. Issuer Analysis – VNA on BNP Exane
6. Company Analysis VNA – CS
7. Event research – UBS Conference
8. Event research – UBS on VNA/CWI
9. Event research – MS Morning Mail
10. Company – IR Monthly Barometer
11. Company – Critical Analysis Kempen vs VNA
12. Company – Perception Study VNA by Makinson Cowell
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
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Summary
1. Analysts are agents
2. Analysts are intermediaries
3. Communication is always focused towards the receiver
1. Company to Analyst
2. Analyst to Investor
4. Different styles in investing require different styles in research
5. The issuer needs information symmetry, everybody else asymmetry
6. The pressure comes from too much, too fast, too detailed
7. The quantitative analysis is only a basis for forming an opinion
8. It focuses on GAAP and non-GAAP sector specific KPI’s
9. The main objective is to compare
1. Amongst Sectors
2. Amongst Issuers
3. Over time
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
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Raise no false expectations
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
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Questions & Answers
Prof. Dr. A. Stefan Kirsten
Die Passivseite – Equity - Analysts
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Key Documents
Analyst Presentation Prospectus
Purpose Inform Sell Side Analysts Inform stock exchange & public
Representation (Haftung) none Full – company and management
Originators Banks & Company Lawyers & Company
Form Powerpoint Text