VOLCANIC HAZARDS AND HOW WE MONITOR VOLCANOES · GEODETIC MEASUREMENTS • Rapidly evolving...
Transcript of VOLCANIC HAZARDS AND HOW WE MONITOR VOLCANOES · GEODETIC MEASUREMENTS • Rapidly evolving...
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VOLCANIC HAZARDS AND HOW WE MONITOR VOLCANOES
John EichelbergerUSGS
June 29, 2010
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Historical Flows of Mauna Loa••NERZ 24%NERZ 24%
••Summit 48%Summit 48%
••SWRZ 21%SWRZ 21%
••RV 6%RV 6%
Historical period*: 33 eruptionsHistorical period*: 33 eruptions
* ~ last 150 yrs* ~ last 150 yrs
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Mauna Loa Lava Flows
Hawaiians arrived ~500 A.D. (yellow era)Hawaiians arrived ~500 A.D. (yellow era)Europeans in the Historical period (red)Europeans in the Historical period (red)
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PanaPana‘‘ewa Flowewa Flow
Lava Flow Impact on Hilo
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Pana`ewa’s Extent in Hilo
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Modeling Using DEM
19841984
HiloHilo
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1984
Photo By D. Little
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Obsidian “Dome”, California
Pumiceous, fractured top
Massive obsidian interior
Debris
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Obsidian Dome emerged from a pipe extending from the top of a long dike.
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Rhyolite lava flow cross section
Pumiceous carapaceObsidian zones
Microcrystalline interior
Basal breccia
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Lava flows
• Cause complete destruction and render land unusable.
• Slow moving – only rarely kill people.• Path is generally predictable.• Commonly a few kilometers in length, but
can travel as much as 100 km from volcano.
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• Lahars (mud flows)
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Another eruption product: lahars (mud flows)
Magma interacting with crater lake
Magma interacting with ice cap
Magma cause failure of volcanic edifice
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Pinatubo, 1991
Aramera, 1985
23,000 dead
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Redoubt, Alaska 2009
Chaiten, Chile 2008
Savonoski, 1912
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Redoubt, Alaska 2009
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Lahars
• Can travel well over 100 km from volcano• Confined to valleys, path is predictable• Near total destruction within path• Can be stopped (sabo works), but very
expensive• Survivable, if valleys are monitored• Can continue for years after an eruption
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HAZARDSD
EST
RU
CT
IVE
NE
SS
EXTENT
toast
partial toast
survival
flanks far valleys everywhere
Lava flows Pyroclastic
flows
Tephra falls
Lahars
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Gas
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August 1986
1700 deaths
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Mammoth Mountain Accident Results in Three Deaths: Patrollers Fall into Volcanic Vent
April 7, 2006
Three members of the Mammoth Mountain ski patrol were killed when a snow collapse plunged two into a volcanic gas vent on the 11,053-foot peak in the Eastern Sierra and others tried to rescue them, a resort official said. Four of their colleagues who tried to rescue them were hospitalized for exposure to carbon dioxide and were doing well late Thursday, said Rusty Gregory, chief executive officer of Mammoth Mountain Ski Area.
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Explosions
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How we monitor volcanoes
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Magma input from mantle; CO2 degassing
Magma erupts; SO2 degassing
Summit magma chamber
CO2-rich plume
HVO
East Rift
Seismic stations “hear” magma flowing
Infrasound arrays (UH) detect and locate explosions and vent outbreaks
SO2-rich ash plume
Explosion on March 19
Ash-rich plume since March 23
Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO)
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SEISMICITY
• When magma moves, it causes earthquakes.• High frequency – from brittle failure of wall
rock• Low frequency – vibration of crack through
which magma is flowing (tremor if continuous)
• Earthquakes don’t occur within magma because magma lacks strength
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The Alaska Volcano Observatory now monitors about half of the active volcanoes in Alaska
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One of many self-contained seismic stations in Katmai National Park
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Earthquake locations at Katmai from seismic monitoring
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Intense seismic swarms
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http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/VOLC/MBW_SHZ_UW_--.2010062912.html
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Cool web sites (Google them)
• AVO• HVO• Institute of Volcanology and Seismology• OMI SO2• MVO
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GEODETIC MEASUREMENTS
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GEODETIC MEASUREMENTS
• Rapidly evolving technology• Already the best way to “watch” magma
move.• May become a primary means of
forecasting
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TECHNIQUES
• Leveling (transit and rod)• Electronic distance measurement (light beam)• GPS (Global Positioning System)• InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture
Radar)
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Yellowstone:
Seismic swarms, steam explosions and gas hazards in a popular national park
Rapid uplift (InSAR image)
YVO
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AKUTAN 1,2AKUTAN, 1996
Lu et al, 2000
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VOLCANIC GASES
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H2O, CO2, SO2
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VOLCANIC GASESin volcano monitoring
• H2O: Most abundant in volcanoes, but it’s everywhere anyway - hard to tell from “meteoric” water.
• CO2: Easy to detect, but starts coming out of magma when it’s still very deep.
• SO2: Easy to detect, and only comes out when the magma is almost “in your face”, but can be “masked” by groundwater.
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Measuring SO2 at Mount St Helens with a spectrometer
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Measuring CO2 emissions by direct sampling of gases at Mammoth Lakes, California
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Dead trees from CO2 emission at the base of Mammoth Mountain volcano
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OBSERVATIONS FROM SATELLITES (REMOTE SENSING)
• Ash clouds• Temperature• Sulfur dioxide (SO2)• Surface deformation
http://so2.umbc.edu/omi/pix/daily/0610/loopall.php?yr=10&mo=06&dy=14&bn=hawaii
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http://so2.umbc.edu/omi/pix/daily/0610/loopall.php?yr=10&mo=06&dy=02&bn=kamchat
http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/eng/index.html
http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/volc_activity.shtml
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Hazards to aviation and healthCommonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands
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Okmok Caldera in eruption in March 1997, as seen by NOAA weather satellite.
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Satellite observation of the 1999 Shishaldin eruption, Unimak Island
ash cloud
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Eruption of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines -2nd largest of the 20th century
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April 4, 2009 ash cloud
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Computer projection of ash cloud trajectory
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AKUTAN 1,2AKUTAN, 1996
Mann et al, 2000
Dike emplacement at Akutan revealed by InSAR
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OTHER GEOPHYSICAL OBSERVATIONS
• GRAVITY• MAGNETIC MEASUREMENTS• ELECTRICAL MEASUREMENTS• HEAT FLOW
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Gravity anomaly map of Yellowstone Caldera. Gravity low suggests low-density magma at depth.
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Heat flow at Yellowstone Caldera. Heat flow is normal outside the caldera.
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Pulling it all together
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AVO operations room, Anchorage
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Background: The United States and its territories contain 169 potentially active volcanoes. Monitoring of the most
dangerous volcanoes is conducted by 5 USGS observatories
Eruption in Progress:
KilaueaRedoubt
Eruptions in last year:Kasatochi. Okmok, Pavlov, Cleveland,
Korovin
Unrest in last year:Mauna LoaThree SistersAnatahanYellowstone
USGS Volcano observatories:HVO Hawaii Volcano ObservatoryAVO Alaska Volcano ObservatoryCVO Cascades Volcano ObservatoryYVO Yellowstone Volcano ObservatoryLVO Long Valley Observatory
Observatory Partners:UH University of HawaiiUAF Univ. Alaska & Alaska Div. Geol. & Geophys Surveys UW University of WashingtonUU University of Utah
Volcano Hazards Program
KVERT
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Communication tools:Volcano Hazards Program
1. Calldown: To emergency response agencies, FAA, government officials.
2. Email reports and notifications: Emergency notifications and daily to weekly status reports to all information users in the public and private sectors.
3. Web sites: Observatory web sites provide all warnings and updates together with real-time monitoring data, webcam views, and background information.
4. Other communication techniques: Press conferences, town hall meetings, eruption response plans, eruption scenario exercises, workshops, hazard maps, fact sheets.
5. Scientific output: About 75 peer-reviewed articles per year in international journals.
6. International outreach: VHP’s Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) responds to countries’ requesting help in dealing with volcanic crises, e.g. in South and Central America, the Philippines, and Indonesia. VHP works with Russian volcanologists to mitigate the hazard of ash clouds to trans-Pacific flights.
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THE FUTURE?• New ways to chemically analyze rocks.• Further improvements in surface seismic,
geodetic, and other geophysical measurements.
• New satellite remote sensing techniques.• Drill and sample magma directly.• Actual samples and new data from
volcanoes on other planets.• Much more data available to everyone on
the Web.