Visioning Future Landscapes of Climate Change: Cotswolds ‘Best and Worst'
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Transcript of Visioning Future Landscapes of Climate Change: Cotswolds ‘Best and Worst'
Visioning Future Landscapes of Climate Change: Cotswolds ‘Best and Worst’
Cotswolds AONB Landscape Change Seminar 12th June 2014
Dr Robert Berry
Countryside and Community Research Institute University of Gloucestershire
Overview
• Brief series of visualisations to stimulate thinking and discussion around future landscape change
• Scenarios based on UKCP09 high emissions projections (2080-2010) [1]
• Likely rise of 3-5+ degrees • Consider best (‘constructive’ ‘B’) and worst (‘in denial’ ‘A’) scenarios
for possible responses and their landscape outcomes
• Several images/maps representative of Cotswolds & Glos views
• Future research plans
Considering the linkages…
Temperature increase (5 degrees)
Longer season, faster crop growth, higher/drier yields.
Grow more arable (wheat,
rape)
Switch to more southern / high-
value crops
Increase in pest and disease outbreaks
decreased summer rain, more winter
storms/floods
1m + Sea level rise, Severn
Switch to more resilient (drought tolerant, robust
over winter) crops
Pressure for more residential
development, infrastructure,
industry?
Severn Vale/lowland
flooding
Hedge and wall degradation (reduced need for boundaries)
Grazing stock relatively more
difficult/low return?
Need for renewable
energy
Grow and harvest more trees – SRC,
woods
Changes in physical structure, more mixed cover, more man-made elements, more intensity of use, more variety of colours
Baseline
[2]
‘A’ scenario - Little mitigation and adaptation
‘B’ scenario - Focussed mitigation and adaptation
High Wold
Crop changes
[3]
6
Landscape change
Enterprise scenario Mitigation and adaptation scenario
[3]
Current Environment Agency Flood Alert Areas + sea level rise of 0.5-1.0m (2100)
Data sources: Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right (2014)
Data sources: Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right (2014)
Gloucestershire Severn Vale
Developed Land Use (ha) 307645 16356
Developed Land Use under threat (ha)
761 761
Percentage 0.25% 4.7%
Development Pressures
[4]
[5]
Future research: Visioning landscapes of climate change in Gloucestershire
• Evaluate the use of geospatial technology to make climate change apparent and meaningful at the local level to the average community member – Refining downscaling of global/regional climate models to local
level – Participatory approach to developing scenarios
• Severn flooding • Development on Cotswolds scarp • Agricultural /landscape change on the high wold • Floodplain Valleys • Lowland
– Visualise scenarios in 3D GIS – Disseminate using different media/formats – Evaluate impact of visualisation on perceptions of climate change
References
1. Defra (2009). Adapting to climate change: UK climate projections. Accessed 28/06/2014 from archive.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/.../uk-climate-projections.pdf
2. Dockerty, T. (2002). Futurescapes: Visualising the potential impacts of climate change on England’s rural landscapes. Accessed 27/06/2014 from http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e384/landscapes.htm
3. Dockerty, T.L, A. A.Lovett, G.Sünnenberg, K.J.Appleton, M.Parry (2005). Visualising the potential impacts of climate change on rural landscapes. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 29, 297-320.
4. Maws, A. (2014). Photomontages of a proposed housing development in Gloucestershire. Accessed on 02/06/2014 from http://andymawdesign.co.uk/portfolio-items/housing-development-gloucestershire/
5. Sheppard, S. (2012). Visualizing climate change: A Guide to Visual Communication of Climate Change and Developing Local Solutions. Routledge.