World Business Council for

Sustainable D evelopment

Vision 2050

The new agenda for business

Title of the eventPlace & date

Summary

About Vision 2050

• The vision concept and the 2050 timeframe provide a clear and feasible goal for…

o Identifying the gap between today and 2050

o Developing a pathway and areas of action

o Clarifying the business perspective

o Quantifying market potential

o Agreeing on action points and next steps

A collaborative effort involving 29 companies

A global business dialogue

The different steps of the Vision 2050 project

Growth and degradation

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Popula

tion in

mill

ions

Urban - Less developed

Rural - Less developed

Urban - More developed

Rural - More developed

0

10,000

20,000

30,000GD

P 2

00

6 US

$ b

n

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

02005 2030

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

400 million

1.2 billion

Perce

nt o

f glo

ba

l po

pu

lati

on

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

Middle East and North Africa

Latin America and the Caribbean

Europe and Central Asia

East Asia and the

Global economic power isshiftingTop 10 economies by GDP in 2050

Theworld population is increasingly urbanGlobal population by type of area and by region – 1950-2050

Theglobal middle class israpidly expandingPopulation in low- and middle-incomecountriesearning US$ 4,000-17,000 percapita(purchasing power parity)

1970

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O 2e

q

Rest of the world

BRIC (Brazil,Russia, India, China)

OECD

0

2030

2005

2030

2005

2030

2005

500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Millions of people

2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Severe

Medium

Low

No

0%

2000

Fore

cast p

ost

-pe

ak de

clin

e ra

te

2005

Campbell

LBST

Peak Oil Consulting

Uppsala

Total

BGR

Shell

MillerMeling

OPEC

IEA

USEIA

2010 2015 2020 2025

Forecast date of peak

2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Greenhousegasemissionskeep risingGHG emissions by regions

Environmental degradation jeopardizespeople’squality of lifePeople living in areas of water stress by level of stress

Theworld could be running out of some resourcesGlobal supply forecasts according to the implied ultimate recoverableresources of conventional oil, date of peak production and the post-peakaggregate decline rate

Growth Degradation

Growth: The world population is increasingly urban

0 

1,000 

2,000 

3,000 

4,000 

5,000 

6,000 

7,000 

8,000 

9,000 

10,000 

1950  1960  1970  1980  1990  2000  2010  2020  2030  2040  2050 

Popul

atio

n in

 mill

ions

 

Urban - Less developed 

Rural - Less developed 

Urban - More developed 

Global population by type of area and by region – 1950-2050

Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008

Growth: The world population is increasingly urban

Between now and 2050 the global population is expected to increase from

6.9 billion to more than 9 billion, with

98% of this growth happening in

cities and in the developing and

emerging world

0

China

Unite

d St

ates

Indi

aBr

azil

Mex

ico

Russ

ia

Indo

nesia

Japa

n

Unite

d Kin

gdom

Germ

any

10,000

20,000

30,000GD

P 2

006 U

S$ b

n

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Growth: Global economic power is shifting

Top 10 economies by GDP in 2050

Source: Goldman Sachs, BRICs and Beyond, 2007

Growth: Global economic power is shifting

Most of the economic growth will

happen in developing or

emerging economies

Growth: The global middle class is rapidly expanding

Population in low- and middle-income countries earning US$ 4,000-17,000 per capita (purchasing power parity)

Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, 2007

02005 2030

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

400 million

1.2 billion

Perc

en

t of g

lob

al p

op

ula

tio

n

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

Middle East and North Africa

Latin America and the Caribbean

Europe and Central Asia

East Asia and the

Growth: The global middle class is rapidly expanding

About 800 million people

will join the middle class in low and middle

income countries

Degradation: Greenhouse gas emissions keep rising

1970

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2e

q

Rest of the world

BRIC (Brazil,Russia, India, China)

OECD

GHG emissions by regions

Source: OECD, Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2008

Degradation: Greenhouse gas emissions keep rising

GHG are projected to grow by a further

52% to 2050, resulting in an increase in global temperature in the range of

1.7-2.4° C, leading to increased heat waves, droughts, storms and floods,

resulting in severe damage to keyinfrastructure and crops

Degradation: Environmental degradation jeopardizes people’s quality of life

0

2030

2005

2030

2005

2030

2005

500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Millions of people

2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Severe

Medium

Low

No

People living in areas of water stress by level of stress

Source: OECD, Environmental Outlook to 2030, 2008

Degradation: Environmental degradation jeopardizes people’s quality of life

Over the past half century 15 of the 24 ecosystem services have been

degraded according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Degradation: The world could be running out of some resources

0%

2000

Fore

cast

post

-peak d

ecl

ine r

ate

2005

Campbell

LBST

Peak Oil Consulting

Uppsala

Total

BGR

Shell

Miller

Meling

OPEC

IEA

USEIA

2010 2015 2020 2025

Forecast date of peak

2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Global supply forecasts according to the implied ultimate recoverable resources of conventional oil, date of peak production and the post-peak aggregate decline rate

Source: UKERC, The Global Oil Depletion Report, 2009

Degradation: The world could be running out of some resources

Oil production will

peak and

decrease

Ecological estimates: Getting to one planet by the end of the 2050s

Vision 2050 ecological footprint against business-as-usual How many Earths do we use?

Source: Global Footprint Network and WBCSD Vision 2050, 2010

2.3 Earths (BAU)

1.1 Earths (Vision 2050)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Num

ber

of E

arth

s

Year

Carbon footprint

Cropland

Grazing land

Forest

Meeting human demands within the ecological limits of the planet

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

World average biocapacity per person in 2006

World average biocapacity per person in 1961 UN

DP

thre

shold f

or h

igh h

um

an d

evelo

pm

en

t

High human developmentwithin the Earth’s limits

2

4

6

8

10

12

Eco

log

ical Footp

rin

t (g

lob

al h

ect

are

s per p

ers

on

)

United Nations Human Development Index

African countries

Asian countries

European countries

Latin American andCaribbean countries

North American countries

Oceanian countriesMeeting the dual goals of sustainability High human development and low ecological impact

Source: © Global Footprint Network (2009). Data from Global Footprint Network National Footprint Accounts, 2009 Edition; UNDP Human Development Report, 2009

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

World average biocapacity per person in 2006

World average biocapacity per person in 1961 UN

DP

thre

shold f

or h

igh h

um

an d

evelo

pm

en

t

High human developmentwithin the Earth’s limits

2

4

6

8

10

12

Eco

log

ical Footp

rin

t (g

lob

al h

ect

are

s per p

ers

on

)

United Nations Human Development Index

African countries

Asian countries

European countries

Latin American andCaribbean countries

North American countries

Oceanian countries

Nine billion people living well, within the limits of the planet

• Diversity and interdependence• A different economic reality• Multi-partner governance• In markets: Innovating and deploying solutions• Dealing with climate change• An evolved workplace and evolved employers

TODAY

The pathway to Vision 2050To a sustainable world in 2050

From business-as-usual

People’s values

Vision for 2050

“One World – People and Planet” lifestyles

Turbulent teens

Understanding and encouraging change through cooperation

Transformation time

Sustainable living becomes mainstream

Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Measures of Well-being, 2006 (from GGDC, CSLS, GSS/Eurobarometer)

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

GDP per capita

Economic well-being

Happiness

Income, economic well-being and happiness in the USA(index: 1980 =100)

Income, economic well-being and happiness in the USA(Index: 1980=100)

Happiness does not completely depend on GDP

Human development

Vision for 2050

Basic needs of all are met

Turbulent teens

Building trust, entrepreneurialism, inclusiveness

Transformation time

Ecosystems and enterprises help create value

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950 1975

Life

exp

ect

ancy

(ye

ars

)

2000 2025 2050

Less developed regions - leastdeveloped countries (Male)

More developed regions (Male)

Less developed regions - leastdeveloped countries (Female)

More developed regions (Female)

Life expectancy by region - 1950-2050

Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008

Life expectancy by region – 1950-2050

People are living longer

Economy

Vision for 2050

True value, true costs, true profits

Turbulent teens

Redefining progress

Transformation time

True values help drive inclusive markets

Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Measures of Well-being, 2006

What GDP does and does not measure

Happiness Livingconditions

Economicwell-being GDP

genetics

family

friends

worksatisfaction

netinvestment

communities

environment

health

(inequality)

education

leisure

wealth

non-marketactivity

(unemployment)

(insecurity)

consumption

(brackets indicate negative impact)

depreciation

net incomegoing toforeigners

regrettables

Reconsidering success and progress

Agriculture

Vision for 2050

Enough food, water and biofuels through a new Green Revolution

Turbulent teens

Cultivating knowledge-intensive agriculture

Transformation time

Growth in global trade, crop yield and carbon management

Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, Realising the Potential of Africa’s Youth, 2009 (FAOSTAT)

Cereal yield by region – 1960-2010

Tonnes per h

ect

are

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Africa

Southern Asia

Europe

Africa’s yield growth has lagged behind other regions

Forests

Vision for 2050

Recovery and regeneration

Turbulent teens

Carbon incentives drive progress

Transformation time

Growing momentum for forest protection and efficient production

Source: FAO, State of the World’s Forests 2009, 2009

Consumption of industrial roundwood by region – 1965-2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1965 1990 2005 2020 2030

mill

ions m

3

North America

Europe

Asia and

Latin America

Africa

Western andCentral Asia

Increasing consumption of industrial roundwood

Energy and power

Vision for 2050

Secure and sufficient supply of low-carbon

Turbulent teens

Tilting and leveling the playing field for energy

Transformation time

Greenhouse gas emissions peak and decline

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, © OECD/IEA 2008

Average annual power generation – capacity additions – 2010-2050

0 10 20 30GW per year

40 50 60

Wind-o

Wind-

Gas-

Coal- 30 - 35 CCS plants (500 MW)

1 - 20 CCS plants (500 MW)

24 - 32 nuclear plants (1,000 MW)

1/5 of Canada's hydropower capacity

30 - 100 biomass plants (50 MW)

2,900 - 14,000 wind turbines (4 MW)

775 - 3,750 wind turbines (4 MW)

50 - 130 geothermal units (100 MW)

115 - 215 million m² solar panels

45 - 80 CSP plants (250 MW)

Huge capacity additions needed to deliver the new energy mix

Energy and power

Vision for 2050

Secure and sufficient supply of low-carbon

Turbulent teens

Tilting and leveling the playing field for energy

Transformation time

Greenhouse gas emissions peak and decline

Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2009, © OECD/IEA 2009

World abatement of energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 scenario

A new energy mix to reduce CO2 emissions

Buildings

Vision for 2050

Close to zero net energy buildings

Turbulent teens

Turning the market toward energy efficiency

Transformation time

Smarter buildings, wiser users

Source: WBCSD, Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 2008

Players and practices in the building market

System integration is key to achieving energy efficiency in buildings

Mobility

Vision for 2050

Universal access to safe and low-impact mobility

Turbulent teens

A holistic approach improves overall transport

Transformation time

Towards alternative drivetrains and fuels

Materials

Vision for 2050

Not a particle of waste

Turbulent teens

Doing more with less

Transformation time

Closing the loop

Source: WBCSD

An alternative material life cycle

Manufacturer

Longuse

Reuse ofproducts

Reuse ofparts

Closed loopmaterialsrecycling

Open loopmaterialsrecycling

Landfill

User

Eliminating waste by closing the material loop

The risks to achieving Vision 2050

Risks in the elements of the pathway•People’s values: Can we all agree?

•Economy: Swimming against the tide of mainstream economics

•Agriculture: Politics, water shortages could uproot the Green Revolution

•Forests: Is it too late already?

•Energy: Progress may be victim to power struggles

•Buildings: In a bad market incentives could fall

•Mobility: Will not become sustainable without a systemic approach

•Materials: Recycling can be expensive

Wild cards that could take the world off the Vision 2050 track•New understanding of how the Earth works

•A World of new ideological blocs, failing states or resources war

•Disagreement on valuing the environment

•Unintended consequences of new technologies

•Extended economic recessions or economic depression

•Natural disasters

Economic estimates: Considerable opportunities

Sectors Annual value in 2050(US$ trillion at constant 2008prices: mid-points with ranges

shown in brackets)

% of projected world GDPin 2050

Energy 2.0 (1.0-3.0) 1.0 (0.5-1.5)

Forestry 0.2 (0.1-0.3) 0.1 (0.05-0.15)

Agriculture and food 1.2 (0.6-1.8) 0.6 (0.3-0.9)

Water 0.2 (0.1-0.3) 0.1 (0.05-0.15)

Metals 0.5 (0.2-0.7) 0.2 (0.1-0.3)

Total : Natural resources 4.1 (2.0-6.1) 2.0 (1.0-3.0)

Health and education 2.1 (0.8-3.5) 1.0 (0.5-1.5)

Total 6.

Source: PwC estimates drawing on data from IEA, OECD and the World Bank

Illustrative estimates of the global order of magnitude of potential additional sustainability related business opportunities in key sectors in 2050

Ecological estimates: Getting to one planet by the end of the 2050s

Vision 2050 ecological footprint against business-as-usual How many Earths do we use?

Source: Global Footprint Network and WBCSD Vision 2050, 2010

2.3 Earths (BAU)

1.1 Earths (Vision 2050)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Num

ber

of E

arth

s

Year

Carbon footprint

Cropland

Grazing land

Forest

Business domains for the next decade – Opportunities and overlaps

Building & transforming cities: The development of cities presents significant opportunities

0 10US$ trillions

30

Ports and airports

Roads and railways

Energy

Water

Investment requirements for urban infrastructure up to 2030

Source: Booz Allen Hamilton, Strategy+Business, n°46, 2007 (from Booz Allen Hamilton, Global InfrastructurePartners, World Energy Outlook, OECD, Boeing, Drewry Shipping Consultants, U.S. Department of Transportation)

Building & transforming cities: The development of cities presents significant opportunities

Estimates suggest that by 2030 US$ 40 trillion will need to

be invested in urban infrastructure worlwide

Water infrastructure: A great variety of solutions will be needed

Aggregate 2030 demand

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

South Africa

São Paulo state

China

India 1,498

818

20

18

Agriculture

Industry

Municipal and domestic

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Billionm3

Billionm3

2030 supply

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

%

Demand for water will outstrip supply – Action is needed to plug the gap Base-case demand, supply and corresponding gaps for certain regions

Source: McKinsey/Water Resources Group, Charting our water future, 2009

Waste management infrastructure: Excess inputs and outputs will be redeployed/reused

0

50

1975

Mill

ion

ton

nes

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

100

150

200

250

300

350

Virgin metal shipments

Scrap/increased recycling rates

Aluminum bank(aluminum stored in products)

Metals and materials will increasingly be mined from products in useOutlook for different sources of aluminum – 1995-2030

Source: Hydro Aluminium, Aluminium for a Viable Society, 2004

Health

Increased access to better healthcare and prevention

will have positive effects on the

economy and businesses

Products and services for aging populations

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1950 2000 2050

Population aged 65+

Population aged 15-64

Population aged 0-14

The world is agingThe world population by age cohort – 1950-2050

Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2008

Products and services for aging populations

By 2020 people aged 65 and above will account for

about one-fifth of the total

global population

Each month around 1.9 million people in the world

will join the ranks of the over 65s

Building and managing complex coalitions

Non-governmentalorganizations

(NGOs)

Traditional development(supply-side bias)

Market-based approach(demand-side bias)

Economic Development

SocialDevelopment

High

High

Low

Low

New partnership paradigm

Complexcoalitionstructures

Privatesector

Building complex coalitions for social and economic development

Source: Accenture, Development Collaboration, None of our Business? 2009

Conclusion and way forward

Urgent action is needed

• Complex systems will provide the foundation

• Business cannot do it alone

• The journey begins now…