Vision 20/20: Communications Futures - Implications for Regulation

International Road Test 2004

Contents

Today’s Objective Background Project Objective Methodology Preliminary Results

Background

• Scope and scale of change – Power of ICT

•digitalisation, pervasive computing– Seamless near ubiquitous communications

•broadband, network integration– Multiple services

•from voice to multimedia•new forms of communication

– International operating environment

Objectives• Project objective

– plausible scenarios future information society

– regulatory implications

• Dealing with uncertainty– cannot predict the future– certainties/uncertainties/wild cards– develop options and indicators

• Guides strategy

“When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail”

Keeping regulations contemporary

Methodology • Scenario planning

Scenarios are plausible stories about future events and relationships.

Created in a way that is cognitively manageable and memorable.

Methodology•Long-term view

A blend of the:– Transitions of the past– Long-term potential

consequences of trends and emerging issues

Steering Committee• Chaired by Dr Bob Horton (ACA)

with:

– Department of Communications, Information Technology and the Arts

– Australian Communications Industry Forum – Australian Broadcasting Authority – Australian Competition and Consumer

Commission – Network Insight Institute

Who is involved• Participants

– ACA– External

Government agenciesService providers/vendorsConsumer and community

groups Research institutions

Research• Literature Research

Systemic drivers of change categorised into STEEP:

Social/cultural Technical and scientific Economic Environmental Political

Research

• Interviews Identified assumptions and expectations

about future communications services, technologies, business models and consumer experiences

Sample questions• What are the three things changing

most rapidly that excite/concern you?• What is the most difficult decision your

nation will have to make in the next 15 years?

• Imagine it is 2020, you are a consumer:– what pleases you about the services?– describe how important the services are to

your life/work

Interview Results: Social/cultural• Social and economic importance

•Internet - primary means of communications

•Percentage disposable income on communication?

• Potential social and knowledge capital gains

•Forming cooperative and collaborative links with like-minded people or organisations, wherever they are

Interview Results -Technological• Incremental change

•Carriage becomes less and less prominent, more and more important

• Radical (discontinuity) change•Machine learning—artificial intelligence—

self aware and understand context•Pace of technical innovation drives rapid

uptake of nano-biomaterial sciences—e.g. log-in becomes biometric

Interview Results - Economic• Business models

•Tension between current business models and Internet/telecommunications sectors

• Australia•Sustainability of Australia’s economy -

dependence on agribusiness and mining?• Demand side drivers/assumptions

•Business and government productivity gains

•Convenience

Interview Results: Environmental• Energy

•Power source sustainable?

• Electromagnetic radiation (EMR) exposure

•Unknown risks?

Interview Results - Political• Privacy and security

– Is there a government role in: monitoring and surveillance or a market responsibility?

• Responsiveness and flexibility– Challenge to provide and maintain legal

system/regulatory framework that supports intellectual property, payments and identity

Issues Workshop• Scoping paper• Presentations• Panel session• Break-out groups

– Critical uncertainties– Stakeholder analysis– Futures Triangle– Futures Wheel– World views

Futures Wheels

Seamless Communicati

ons

Multi networked devices

application

Trust model

developed

User market power

Regulatory intervention to

achieve interoperability

Universal product

identification

Multiuse devices

application

Competition at user

interface

Adaptive protocols + standards

Geographic independenc

e

Disincentive to invest

Blurred international jurisdiction

Developed

cyber-law

Privacy + consumer

control critical

Value relates to

richness of experience

Geography a

premium

Strong on-line ID

Low cost bit, many

bitsSocial equity

Face-to-face is a privilege

Commercial collaboration, Trade

Practices Act recognised

Service brands

important

More disruptiv

e

Services competiti

on

Interconnect network + sum game

Borderless working

Dynamic populatio

n

Richer applicatio

ns

Stakeholders – year 20042004a Less subject to pressure from others Subject to pressure from others

Infl

ue

nti

al

Le

ss I

nfl

ue

nti

al

Asia Consumers Laggers

Major carriers

Squeaky wheels Employers Europe

Content providers Venture

capitalists

Early adopters

Disabled access groups

Defence/national security

Regulators Media United States

Standards bodies

Luddites

Employees

National Government

Aged

Criminal element

Environment lobby

Law enforcement

Consumer representative

groups

Trade unions

Youth

Service aggregators

Parliament

Vendors

Broadcasters

Research institutions

Niche players (carrier)

Followers

Stakeholders – year 2020

Communities of interest

Brands

Terrorists

Major carriers

Europe

Content providers

Venture capitalists

Disabled access groups

Defence/national security

Broadcasters

Media

United States

National government

Aged

Parliament

Virtual entities

Environment lobby

Virtual identities

Trade unions

Research institutions

Virtual regulations

Self regulation

Employers

Consumers

Pacific

Global Business

Tech savvy

Asia regional alliances

Opt outs

Niche Business

Peer-to-peer network

Middle aged

International fora

Certifiers

Communications service providers

Information services agents

Regulators

Standards bodies

Utilities

Youth Legal

systems

Vendors

Devices

Industry representative organisations

Service aggregators

2020a Less subject to pressure from others Subject to pressure from others

Infl

ue

nti

al

Le

ss I

nfl

ue

nti

al

Critical uncertainties grid

Pervasive

computing

Consumers: more

choice/more risk

Hospitals without walls

USA driver of standards in

Australia

Networks determine applications that run over their network

Moore’s Law becomes true for screens, storage

and batteries

Pace of innovation suits small and agile business

models

Generational conflict

Shifting vulnerabilities

and social exclusion

Making the ‘commons’

safer

Corporate social responsibility

grows in importance

Climate change

Negative effects of

RF

Universal connectivi

ty

Incentives to self-regulate

Global technology revolution

The internet commons is closed off, replaced

by walled gardens

Machine learning – AI- self aware and understand

context

Devices and applications

designed for use by all

Opt in or opt out by choice

Asian/Pacific values become more

integrated with the ‘Australian way’

Pervasive monitorin

g

Global pandemic

Continued transfer of responsibility to

the individual

Certain

Important

LessImportant

Uncertain

The legal system will continue in current

format and be effective

Communications compatibility across the

law enforcement/defence

community

Global information utilities

Digital divide policy to facilitate inclusion through education

and training

Information access

rights

Closed Loop responsibiliti

es

Growing wealth and poverty

divide

Ideological shift,

fundamentalism

Market dominated by trusted brands

Population Policy

Information management

Identity

Unsustainable impact of communications industry on the

environment

Introduction of ‘viral

regulations’

Work is what you do not where you

go

Electronic democrac

y – reliable

and trusted

Lack of responsibility/incentives

to protect the environment

Ageing population

Metro vs. rural divide

Every transaction encrypted and authenticated

Terrorism

Pace of change exceeds

adaptation

Universal service

abandoned

Digitalisation of TV and

radio

Harmonised

regulations

Proprietary systems

Monitoring, filtering

and surveillan

ce

Non-sustainable power source

Content widely

distributed

Communications vandalism

Diminishing role of nation

state

Vertically integrated

value chains challenged

Internationally focussed regulatory

framework

Value is in the

network

Health care

Inter-industry

interoperability

Convergence

Skills development and

retention challenges

Powerful vested interests

More income allocated to

communications

Commoditisation

Developing world labour

source

The Push Pull Weight

Pull

Weight Push

Communications vandalism

Non-sustainable power source

Ideological shift Open source

Consumers: more choice, more risk

Rapid decline in voice revenues

Incentives to self-regulate

Geopolitical relationships

Opt in or opt out by choice

Work is what you do not where you go

Devices and applications designed for use by all

Network intelligence builds itself where the user is

Universal connectivity

Global pandemic

Internet commons closed off

Clear Directions

• Most voted for STEEP results

• Consensus around power and influence

• Futures Triangle informative– Push, pull, weights

Mixed signals• STEEP double-ups

• Cross-reference source material – eg.– Efficient use of RF Spectrum

• STEEP – not clear

• Futures Triangle – “pull” – an idea that attracts

– Open source systems• STEEP – not clear

• Futures Triangle – “push” – drives change

Scenario Logics

The core premise for each scenario

End point description

End point description

End point description

End point description

I

III IV

II

Multiple Scenarios

• Five groups• 20 scenario options• Five narratives

Scenario 1: SNAF Sensitive New Age Future

The world in scenario 1 is nice and smooth like sound of the violin.

Scenario 2: Big Daddy

The world in scenario 2 can be annoying for people like the sound of a banging drum

Scenario 3:Nano-boomers

This scenario gives people variety and has an element of mystery about it. This is just like the sound variations you can get from an electronic keyboard

Scenario 4: Marching into the Future

The world in scenario 4 is fast and clear like an accomplished virtuoso performing to an audience.

Scenario 5: ‘You can take a horse to water….’

The world in scenario 5 is sad and overwhelming like the sound of the tuba.

Interpretation and Analysis• Compare and contrast• Regulatory implications• Strategic options

Critical uncertainties• Connectivity

– Open, integrated– Proprietary, fragmented

• Role of government– Individual self-reliance & choice– Prescribed rule of law

• Privacy– Pervasive monitoring, no privacy– Individually controlled

Critical uncertainties, cont.• Identity

– Formal, linked to ‘real world’– Informal, linked to virtual world– Centralised/discretionary

• Importance of communications– a key priority– one of many demands

Critical uncertainties, cont• Consumer/citizen reaction

Pessimistic:– cautious, risk adverse, crisis of confidence– rights and obligations framework cannot

keep up with pace of change– opt-out or excludedOptimistic: – Open to new services, trusting– balanced rights and obligations framework

Common elements

• Rapid pace of change• Pervasive communications• Work is what you do• Globalisation• Aging/health care

Variables• Confidence and trust• Innovation• Geo-political stability• Generational differences• Collaboration/participation

Gaps in our narratives• Enhanced/augmented reality• Global economic shock• Private or alternative media • Regional dynamics• Architecture for participation• The 3 g’s• Quantum communications• Digital rights management

Gaps cont:• Drivers of productivity (e.g.

Demographics)• Information storage – external brain• Too much choice/information – could

slow down change• Communications requires system-wide

management

Strategic options – the approach• Robust• Unique• Evolve current framework

– influence– prepare

Under consideration• Network continuity/security/ID/payments• Monitoring/privacy• Always connected/management of

information • Cultural identity and values• Open source rules, standards, self-

organising processes • Agents (virtual, AI) - rules• Parallel environments

– Formal/informal

Under consideration, cont• Market dynamics/business models• Near ubiquitous global connectivity• Blurring of jurisdiction

– Harmonisation– Unique to location or culture

• Radio frequency spectrum– Capacity not limited, interference not in the

air– Open/closed

• Balance interests• Regulate devices not bands

Under consideration cont.• Limits to regulatory convergence• Applying systems thinking• International approach• Environmental impacts • Promoting innovation• Management of ad-hoc, informal

networks– Less powerful, more localised – less reg.

Process from here• Consolidate scenario analysis• Review/test• Strategic options• Indicators• Preliminary report • Final report• Strategy• On-going liaison and scanning

Feedback• What else should we consider?• Any suggestions for our tool box?• Where does the value lie in our work so

far?

Our Website:

http://www.aca.gov.au/aca_home/about_aca/futures_panel/vision_2020/index.htm