Virginia Sentencing GuidelinesPreliminaryFY2016 Report

September 12, 2016

FY 2016 - Cases Coded and Keyed*

2015 2016 TotalJAN 1,870FEB 1,975

MAR 2,071APR 1,904MAY 1,708JUN 1,901JUL 1,973

AUG 2,008SEP 1,898

OCT 2,052NOV 1,738DEC 1,812

TOTAL 11,481 11,429 22,910

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*Keyed as of September 1, 2016 (Includes all forms received)

ACCOMACK 64 CHESTERFIELD 1109 HALIFAX 154 NELSON 37 SCOTT 251ALBEMARLE 204 CLARKE 59 HANOVER 367 NEW KENT 41 SHENANDOAH 33ALLEGHANY 172 CRAIG 1 HENRICO 1107 NORTHAMPTON 42 SMYTH 153AMELIA 40 CULPEPER 188 HENRY 184 NORTHUMBERLAND 28 SOUTHAMPTON 125AMHERST 125 CUMBERLAND 29 HIGHLAND 3 NOTTOWAY 68 SPOTSYLVANIA 288APPOMATTOX 47 DICKENSON 104 ISLE OF WIGHT 78 ORANGE 90 STAFFORD 506ARLINGTON 334 DINWIDDIE 88 JAMES CITY 78 PAGE 139 SURRY 6AUGUSTA 206 ESSEX 39 KING & QUEEN 22 PATRICK 39 SUSSEX 34BATH 25 FAIRFAX COUNTY 828 KING GEORGE 69 PITTSYLVANIA 173 TAZEWELL 411BEDFORD 166 FAUQUIER 209 KING WILLIAM 30 POWHATAN 60 WARREN 181BLAND 8 FLOYD 41 LANCASTER 26 PRINCE EDWARD 112 WASHINGTON 218BOTETOURT 149 FLUVANNA 31 LEE 59 PRINCE GEORGE 66 WESTMORELAND 66BRUNSWICK 33 FRANKLIN COUNTY 125 LOUDOUN 347 PRINCE WILLIAM 666 WISE 258BUCHANAN 105 FREDERICK 293 LOUISA 120 PULASKI 174 WYTHE 170BUCKINGHAM 34 GILES 86 LUNENBURG 52 RAPPAHANNOCK 6 YORK 126CAMPBELL 192 GLOUCESTER 115 MADISON 27 RICHMOND COUNTY 18CAROLINE 59 GOOCHLAND 23 MATHEWS 18 ROANOKE COUNTY 229CARROLL 157 GRAYSON 90 MECKLENBURG 197 ROCKBRIDGE 155CHARLES CITY 12 GREENE 8 MIDDLESEX 40 ROCKINGHAM 287CHARLOTTE 31 GREENSVILLE 120 MONTGOMERY 218 RUSSELL 167

FY 2016 - Cases Received by County - FIPS

3N=22,910 (8 – FIPS not included on cover sheet)

ALEXANDRIA 69 NEWPORT NEWS 542

BRISTOL 206 NORFOLK 1026

BUENA VISTA 38 NORTON 1

CHARLOTTESVILLE 99 PETERSBURG 20

CHESAPEAKE 781 PORTSMOUTH 430

COLONIAL HEIGHTS 167 RADFORD 54

DANVILLE 283 RICHMOND CITY 959

FAIRFAX CITY 1 ROANOKE CITY 409

FALLS CHURCH 1 SALEM 20

FREDERICKSBURG 232 STAUNTON 154

HAMPTON 362 SUFFOLK 321

HARRISONBURG 178 VIRGINIA BEACH 1121

HOPEWELL 90 WAYNESBORO 167

LEXINGTON 5 WILLIAMSBURG 62

LYNCHBURG 367 WINCHESTER 272

MARTINSVILLE 97 MISSING 8

FY 2016 - Cases Received by City - FIPS

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Lists of Cases Received Will Be Sent To:Chief Judges, Circuit Court Clerks and Commonwealth’s Attorneys

N=22,910 (8 – FIPS not included on cover sheet)

Preliminary FY2016 Report:General Compliance

5

Preliminary FY2016 ReportJudicial Agreement

with Guideline Recommendations

General Compliance:

The degree to which judges agree with the overall guidelines recommendation.

Compliance80.8%

Mitigation9.8% Aggravation

9.4%

Overall Compliance Rate

Mitigation51.2%

Aggravation48.8%

Direction of Departures

6

N=22,217 (Excludes old worksheets, non-guidelines offenses and cases missing sentencing information or a guidelines recommendation)

Preliminary FY2016 ReportJudicial Agreement

with Type of Recommended Disposition

ACTUAL DISPOSITION

Dispositional Compliance:

The degree to which judges agree with the type of sanction recommended.

7

N=22,217 (Excludes old worksheets, non-guidelines offenses and cases missing sentencing information or a guidelines recommendation)

Mitigation48.9%

Aggravation51.1%

Direction of DeparturesNew Trend?

Median 9 months above

midpoint

Preliminary FY2016 ReportJudicial Agreement with Sentence Length

Durational Compliance:

The degree to which judges agree with the sentence length in cases in which defendants are recommended for jail/prison and receive at least one day incarceration.

Compliance82.5%

Mitigation8.5%

Aggravation8.9%

Durational Compliance

Median 8 months

belowmidpoint

8N=15,291 (Incarceration recommended with a disposition of incarceration (missing 235)

Preliminary FY2016 Report:Departure Reasons

9

Mitigation (n=2,182)

• Plea agreement 783 (36%*)

• Sentenced to alternative 217 (10%*)

• Judicial discretion 197 (9%*)• Cooperated with

authorities 182 (8%*)• No significant prior record 165 (8%*)

• Facts of the case 159 (7%*)

• Court proceedings 158 (7%*)

• Recommendation of CA 141 (7%*)

• Offender’s health issues 114 (5%*)

• Rehabilitation potential 73 (3%*)

• Victim’s Request 67 (3%*)n=332 (15%) missing a departure reason

Aggravation (n=2,082)

• Plea agreement 528 (25%**)• Flagrancy of

offense/facts of case 380 (18%**)• Severity/type of

prior record 254 (12%**)• Multiple counts

involved in event 199 (10%**)• Recommendation of jury 104 (5%**)• Poor rehabilitation

potential 103 (5%**)• Drugs involved 99 (5%**)• Degree of injury 91 (4%**)• Type of victim (child, etc.) 88 (4%**)

n=284 (14%) missing a departure reason

Preliminary FY2016 ReportMost Frequently Cited Departure Reasons

* Of mitigating cases requiring departure reason ** Of aggravating cases requiring departure reasons10

Preliminary FY2016 Report:Compliance by Circuit

11

Preliminary FY2016Sorted By Circuit

12

13

Preliminary FY2016Sorted By Compliance

Highest aggravation:-Circuit 5 (Suffolk Area)14.9%

Highest mitigation:-Circuit 13 (Richmond City)29.3%

80.8

Preliminary FY2016 Report:Compliance by Offense Type

14

85.4% 84.7% 84.4% 82.1% 81.1% 79.2% 77.5% 77.3% 76.8% 76.1% 75.2% 72.9% 70.8% 68.9% 67.0% 63.0% 62.3%

9.3% 6.2% 9.1% 9.2% 8.0% 10.7%5.8% 11.0% 11.0% 13.0% 16.2%

10.7% 8.9%22.1%

15.7%

7.4% 9.3%

5.3% 9.2% 6.4% 8.7% 10.9% 10.1%16.7% 11.7% 12.3% 10.9% 8.6%

16.4% 20.2%9.0%

17.2%29.6% 28.4%

Aggravation Mitigation Compliance

Preliminary FY2016 ReportCompliance by Type of Offense

1812 1,167 5,466 7,264 1,407 337 120 656 155 1,187 303 140 415 512 737 324 215

Fraud Drug-Oth Larceny Drug-I/II Traffic Burg-Oth Kidnap Weapon Obscenity Assault Misc-Oth Rape Misc-PP Robbery Burg-Dwel Sex Asl Murder

15

Preliminary FY2016 ReportCompliance by Type of Offense

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Offense Aggravation Rate (Total #) Extortion 25% (n=25)

Arson Occupied 32% (n=19)

Shoot/Vehicle 33% (n=12)

Child AbuseSerious Inj. 38% (n=50)

Endangerment 24% (n=29)

85.4% 84.7% 84.4% 82.1% 81.1% 79.2% 77.5% 77.3% 76.8% 76.1% 75.2% 72.9% 70.8% 68.9% 67.0% 63.0% 62.3%

9.3% 6.2% 9.1% 9.2% 8.0% 10.7%5.8% 11.0% 11.0% 13.0% 16.2%

10.7% 8.9%22.1%

15.7%

7.4% 9.3%

5.3% 9.2% 6.4% 8.7% 10.9% 10.1%16.7% 11.7% 12.3% 10.9% 8.6%

16.4% 20.2%9.0%

17.2%29.6% 28.4%

Aggravation Mitigation Compliance

1,812 1,167 5,466 7,264 1,407 337 120 656 155 1,187 303 140 415 512 737 324 215

Fraud Drug-Oth Larceny Drug-I/II Traffic Burg-Oth Kidnap Weapon Obscenity Assault Misc-Oth Rape Misc-PP Robbery Burg-Dwel Sex Asl Murder

Preliminary FY2016 ReportCompliance by Type of Offense

17

Aggravated Sexual Battery child 13,14 & Indecent Liberties offenses have high aggravation rates. Revised scores effective July 1, 2016 (FY 2017)

Offense Aggravation Rate (Total #)ASB Injury 38% (n=8)Prostitution 43% (n=14)100% Aggravation:ASB Weapon (n=1), Sodomy Parent - Victim 13-17 (n=3) & Incest (Parent - Victim 13-17) (n=2)

85.4% 84.7% 84.4% 82.1% 81.1% 79.2% 77.5% 77.3% 76.8% 76.1% 75.2% 72.9% 70.8% 68.9% 67.0% 63.0% 62.3%

9.3% 6.2% 9.1% 9.2% 8.0% 10.7%5.8% 11.0% 11.0% 13.0% 16.2%

10.7% 8.9%22.1%

15.7%

7.4% 9.3%

5.3% 9.2% 6.4% 8.7% 10.9% 10.1%16.7% 11.7% 12.3% 10.9% 8.6%

16.4% 20.2%9.0%

17.2%29.6% 28.4%

Aggravation Mitigation Compliance

1,812 1,167 5,466 7,264 1,407 337 120 656 155 1,187 303 140 415 512 737 324 215

Fraud Drug-Oth Larceny Drug-I/II Traffic Burg-Oth Kidnap Weapon Obscenity Assault Misc-Oth Rape Misc-PP Robbery Burg-Dwel Sex Asl Murder

Preliminary FY2016 ReportCompliance by Type of Offense

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Vehicular Involuntary Manslaughter and Voluntary Manslaughter have high aggravation rates. Revised scores effective July 1, 2016 (FY 2017)Offense Aggravation Rate (Cases)Invol. Manslaughter 52% (n=31)

Felony 38% (n=8)

85.4% 84.7% 84.4% 82.1% 81.1% 79.2% 77.5% 77.3% 76.8% 76.1% 75.2% 72.9% 70.8% 68.9% 67.0% 63.0% 62.3%

9.3% 6.2% 9.1% 9.2% 8.0% 10.7%5.8% 11.0% 11.0% 13.0% 16.2%

10.7% 8.9%22.1%

15.7%

7.4% 9.3%

5.3% 9.2% 6.4% 8.7% 10.9% 10.1%16.7% 11.7% 12.3% 10.9% 8.6%

16.4% 20.2%9.0%

17.2%29.6% 28.4%

Aggravation Mitigation Compliance

1,812 1,167 5,466 7,264 1,407 337 120 656 155 1,187 303 140 415 512 737 324 215

Fraud Drug-Oth Larceny Drug-I/II Traffic Burg-Oth Kidnap Weapon Obscenity Assault Misc-Oth Rape Misc-PP Robbery Burg-Dwel Sex Asl Murder

Preliminary FY2016 Report:Nonviolent Risk Assessment

Effective July 1, 2013

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Preliminary FY2016 ReportNonviolent Offenders Eligible for Risk Assessment

by Type of Offense

15,709 Drug, Fraud & Larceny Cases- 9,117 Excluded: Ineligible, Errors, 1,236 Missing

6,592 Analyzed

Larceny34.8%

Fraud11.5% Drug

Other7.4%

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Drug I/II 46.2%

Preliminary FY2016Nonviolent Offenders Eligible for Risk Assessment

Fraud

Larceny

All Risk Cases 8%

8%

10%

Drug 7%

20%

7%

32%

28%

67%

80%

55%

59%

5%

5%

3%

6%

6,592

2,474

815

3,303

Offense Mitigation

Compliance

AggravationNumberof CasesAlternative Traditional

87%

87%

87%

87%

21N=6,592

Recommended for and Received an Alternative 20.4% n= 1346

Recommended and Incarcerated 28.4% n= 1869

Not Recommended and Received Alternative 13.1% n= 864

Not Recommended and Incarcerated 38.1% n= 2513

Preliminary FY2016Nonviolent Offenders Eligible for Risk Assessment

22N=2,809

Of offenders recommended for alternative sanctions, the proportion who received an alternative

42%

Of offenders recommended for alternative sanctions, the proportion who received an alternative

In cases without Plea Agreement 38% - In cases with Plea Agreement 46%

Preliminary FY2016 Report:Compliance for New Offenses Modified

July 1, 2015

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Sell Schedule IV Drug - - - n= 0

Obtain Info to Defraud – 2nd 73.9% 17.4% 8.7% n= 23

Receive Stolen Credit Card w/Intent 78.6% 21.4% 0.0% n=14

Preliminary FY2016New Guidelines Offenses

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Offense Concurrence Mitigation Aggravation #Cases

25

Preliminary FY2016 Report:Sentencing Revocation Reports &

Probation Violation Guidelines

2,886

3,643 3,490

5,5115,783

5,0785,370 5,3205,509

6,6706,268

4,668

5,2345,140

5,440

5,756

6,466

5,456

2,2782,630

2,183

3,228 3,3323,173

3,361

3,9483,671

4,755

5,182 5,133

5,2256054

5,7546,011 5,923

6,359

5,030

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

TechnicalNew Law

Sentencing Revocation Reports Received for Technical and New Law Violations*

FY1998 - FY2016 (Preliminary)

*Note: Includes cases received by June 20, 2016 for cases found in violation with no missing conditions (FY16 - Data for May and June are incomplete)

52%

48%

26

37%48% 47%

54% 53% 53% 54% 50% 52% 53% 54% 56%

27%

30% 32%25% 26% 26% 24%

26% 23% 23% 24%25%

35%

22% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 24% 25% 24% 22% 19%

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16*

Compliance Mitigation Aggravation

N = 3,140

Probation Violation Guidelines – “Technicals” Compliance by Fiscal Year

FY2005 – FY2016 (Preliminary)

N = 4,905 N = 4,965N = 4,790N = 4,770N = 4,231N = 5,027N = 5,929 N = 4,488 N = 4,503

27*Note: FY16 includes cases received by June 20, 2016 for cases found in violation with no missing conditions (Missing cases sentenced in May and June 2016)

N = 5,678 N = 4,745*

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