Ana Liza SolisAna Liza Solis

Climate Monitoring and Prediction - PAGASA/DOSTSource :

Definition of TermsDefinition of TermsWeather - is the specific condition of the atmosphere or “actual state” at a particular place and time.time.

Climate - is the “average weather” or normalnormal state of the atmosphere and its long term variability over a particular period (say over month, a season, a year or several years)

(Global) Climate System – interactive system consisting of 5 major components, forced or influenced by various external forcings (i.e.,sun and human activity)

CryosphereCryosphere

Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s mean temperature due to the so-called enhanced greenhouse effect.

Source: OSTPWater vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) are the two most abundant natural heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere.

Land,vege, ocean,etc.

trapped by

Sunlight - heat energy

These and other gases keep the Earth’s surface about 60°F (33 °C) warmer than it otherwise would be. Without this natural greenhouse or blanket effect, life as we know it would not be possible

Carbon dioxide: +31% Carbon dioxide: +31%

Methane: +151%Methane: +151%

Nitrous oxide: +17%Nitrous oxide: +17%

Humans are increasing heat-trapping gases Humans are increasing heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere = in the atmosphere = enhanced greenhouse enhanced greenhouse effecteffect

‘Thickening blanket’

Human activities contribute to climate change by causing changes in Earth’s atmosphere in the amounts of greenhouse gases, aerosols and cloudiness.

How do human activities contribute How do human activities contribute to climate change?to climate change?

Natural sources

• Soils (biological processes)

• Ocean

Natural sources

• Wetlands

• Termites

• Ocean

Natural sources

• Tropical soils (wet forests)

• Ocean

Natural sources

• none

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Nitrous Oxide

Hydroflourocarbons

NATURAL SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GASESNATURAL SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GASES

Carbon dioxide

Methane

Nitrous oxides

Hydrofluorocarbons

Nitrous Oxide:

• Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Oceans• Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer and Pesticides in Agriculture• Biomass Burning • Combustion Process Vehicles• Acid Production Nitrous oxides

Man-Made Sources of GhGsMan-Made Sources of GhGs

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6

Hydrofluorocarbons

Man-Made Sources of GhGsMan-Made Sources of GhGs

Carbon dioxideMan-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)

MethaneCarbon dioxide

CH3 accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects

Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)

Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)Man-Made Sources of GhGs (Human Activity)

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

100 0.0740.018 50 0.1280.026

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,200

6, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1991,200

0

Period Rate

Years /decade

Source: IPCC

• Alters the composition of the global atmosphere, which

• Is an addition to natural climate variability*

• a change of climate attributed directly/indirectly to human activity that

* fluctuations / variations of climate observed since the instrumental period

Manifestations of Climate Manifestations of Climate ChangeChange

Manifestations of Climate Manifestations of Climate ChangeChangeMelting of Glaciers

Arctic sea ice area decreased Arctic sea ice area decreased by 2.7% per decadeby 2.7% per decade

sets of observational evidence supporting the assessment that climate change is happening

Recent observations show that ghg emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of IPCC projections.

global mean temperature

sea-level rise

Manifestations of Climate Manifestations of Climate ChangeChange

Manifestations of Climate Manifestations of Climate ChangeChange

The Thames Barrier, a major flood defense system in London designed to be used once every two to three years is now being used six times a year due to increased rainfall.

More Rains Forecast As England And Wales See Wettest Months Since 1766

Henley-On-Thames, England (AFP) July 26, 2007

Tornados wreak havoc in the North Island

Stuff.co.nz |

Recently

….July 2007

Chilean Lake Vanishes in

Two Months

By Eduardo G

allardo

Buenos Aires has first snow since 1918

James Sturcke and agencies July 10, 2007 Guardian Unlimited

ManifestatioManifestatio

ns of Climate ns of Climate

ChangeChange … …

ICE WORLD

Tibetian Warming Trend Gaining Pace

       Tibet's sensitive alpine environment

is seen as a key barometer of the

world's climate.

by Staff Writers

Beijing (AFP) Jul 23, 2007

Deadly Monsoon Rains Worst in 25 Years NEW

DELHI, India,

- Among longest coastlines in the world with 32,400 kms (susceptible to storm surges)

DUE TO ITS GEOGRAPHIC FEAUTURES

- Highly susceptible to flooding and inundations

- Archipelagic- 7,100 islands

with low lying areas - Highly susceptible to sea level rise

RANK REGION NUMBER OF MUNICIPALITIE

S

LAND AREA VULNERABLE TO 1 meter SLR (m2)

1 ARMM 39 137,635,200

2 Region 9 40 81,129,600

3 Region 4B 64 75,807,900

4 Region 8 92 75,662,100

5 Region 5 86 74,277,000

6 Region 7 68 52,747,200

7 Region 6 68 38,118,600

8 Region 11 20 30,107,700

9 Region 4A 46 23,805,900

10 Region 1 48 20,322,900

11 Region 12 19 16,232,400

12 CARAGA 40 12,611,700

13 Region 10 31 12,109,500

14 Region 2 18 6,439,500

15 Region 3 23 4,252,500

16 NCR 1 380,700

REGIONS IN THE PHILIPPINES THAT ARE VULNERABLE TO A 1-METER RISE IN SEA LEVEL SOURCE: Greenpeace Southeast Asia published at BizNewsAsia

POOR ACCESS TO RESOURCES

LOW LEVEL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO TYPHOONS – LOCATED WITHIN PACIFIC TYPHOON BELT AREA

VISITED BY AVERAGE20 TYPHOONSEVERY YEAR

With the projected increase in temperature this could mean much stronger and more intense tropical cyclones.

1128 Actual tracks

TY Reming (DURIAN) source:www.albay.gov.ph/reming NOV 2006

Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars) www.

The Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disturbances and disasters. The The Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disturbances and disasters. The past typhoons have been past typhoons have been unusually heavy and devastating to our country and our people. unusually heavy and devastating to our country and our people.

LANDSLIDES MUD FLOWS

SINCE 2003

AT LEAST 3,000 PEOPLE DIED DUE TO LANDSLIDES AND MUD FLOWS.

An increase of 0.6104C from 1951-2006

ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE

MEAN ANNUAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE

An increase of 0.3472C from 1951-2006

MEAN ANNUAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

An increase of 0.8904C from 1951-2006

Observed Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the

1961-1990 normal values)

almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures

BACKGROUND INFORMATION: observed changes

TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES

0

50

100

150

200

250

Luzon Visayas Mindanao

Nu

mb

er

51-80

61-90

71-00

LUZONVISAYAS

MINDANAO

195

1-8

0

196

1-9

0

197

1-0

0

Is this the Future?• Global warming is inadequate to describe the

changes we can expect in the Earth System.

• The focus is not on temperature alone but also on the anticipated shifts in climate variability; specifically the

• projected increase in the frequency and severity of extreme events.

• Mitigation - human intervention to reduce the source and enhance the sinks

• Adaptation- capacity to cope up with the adverse impacts of climate change- To reduce vulnerability

• Access to Financial resources - part of developed countries’ obligation under the convention to enhance adaptive capacities of developing countries

• Technology Transfer

MITIGATION

MITIGATION

Risk Assessment and Hazard Mapping

Information and Education Campaign

Seasonal Forecasting

Monitoring and Early Warning System

S&T –based Climate Change Adaptation S&T –based Climate Change Adaptation StrategiesStrategies

Enhancement of Monitoring System

CEBU

SC.GARDENQuezon City

MTSAT

NOAA

WAFS

LEGEND:

Chinese FY2

MODIS

Meteorological Satellite Facility

Satellite Receiving Facilities

MODIS

FY2(Chinese)

NOAA

Installation of more automatic weather stations

• Meteorological Buoys

• Wind Profilers

PROVISION OF SEASONAL

CLIMATE FORECAST

PERCENTAGE RAINFALL CONDITION

< 40%

41% - 80%

81% - 120%

> 120 %

below normal

near normal

above normal

way below normal

PERCENTAGE RAINFALL CONDITION

< 40%

41% - 80%

81% - 120%

> 120 %

PERCENTAGE RAINFALL CONDITION

< 40%

41% - 80%

81% - 120%

> 120 %

below normal

near normal

above normal

way below normal

Drought Monitoring Drought Monitoring SystemSystem

“Long-range planning does not deal with future

decisions, but with the future of present

decisions.” 

Peter Drucker

WMO/OMM

“tracking the sky . . . helping the country”

The real cause of the melting ice caps

increase in malnutrition mixed effects on malaria increase number of people at risk with dengue

DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOSDEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN TO THE WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN TO THE PHILIPPINES AT THE END OF 21PHILIPPINES AT THE END OF 21STST CENTURY?CENTURY?

Temperature Projection

1.8-3C increase

1.8-3C increase

2.1-2.7 C increase

2.1-2.7 C increase

Increase in entire archipelago;Greater increase in MAM

FUTURE (2075-2099)

Solis,2009 (Capacity Development for Adaptation to Climate Change in Asia-Climate Change Analysis)

RAINFALL SCENARIOEND OF 21ST

CENTURY

JFM- An increase in rainfall (0.5-2 mm/day)

decrease over the mountainous areas (W.Luzon)

Eastern part wet, will be more wet

more dry

increase

+ Areas statistically significant at 95% level

AMJ - Rainfall reduction in entire archipelago (5-20%);

greater decrease over Luzon and the mountainous areas

significant increase along the west coastal regions

-

-

-

-

JFM / AMJEND OF 21ST CENTURY

JAS – generally increasing

•Greater increase R1,IVB,R10

•Greater increase in convective precipitation (not shown)

• enhanced SW monsoon activity

+ Areas statistically significant at 95% level

OND - Decrease about 10-20%

Greater decrease over the mountainous area and coastal areas in w Luzon

Increase 10-20% in some parts of Mindanao

RAINFALL SCENARIO

Intensity of precipitation events is projected to increase.

Even in areas where mean precipitation decreases, precipitation intensity is projected to increase but there would be longer periods between rainfall events.

“It rains less frequently, but when it does rain, there is more precipitation for a given event.” (Tebaldi et al. 2006)

Extremes will have more impact than changes in mean climate

INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE

1990

1st IPCC report

- the planet seems to be

warming

- Human activity

seems to be responsible

for it

1992

2nd Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro

- UNFCCC was adopted

- Call for a stabilization

of GHG emissions by

2000

1994

UNFCCC entered

into force

- Philippines ratified UNFCCC

1997

Kyoto Protocol

was adopted at

COP 3, Kyoto

Conference

2005

Kyoto Protocol entered

into force

2007

4th IPCC report

- Equivocally, the planet is warming due

to man-made

activities

2007

Bali roadmap adopted at

COP 13, Bali Conference

2008

Poznan Conference

(Poland)

2009

Copenhagen Protocol expected

- 2nd KP commitment

period

INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE