Vietnam: Climate change, adaptation and poor people

8/7/2019 Vietnam: Climate change, adaptation and poor people

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Viet NamCa Ca, Aapa

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A report for Oxfam

October 2008


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Executive Summary 3

Introduction: The climate is changing and so are our lives 7

Poverty and climate change in Viet Nam 11

Climate change - past, present and uture 15

Ben Tre on the rontline o climate change 21

Quang Tri Living with Floods 35

Government plans on adaptation and climate change 47

Conclusion 50


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abbvns

CC Climate Change

CCFSC Central Committee or Flood and Storm Control

DOST Department o Science and Technology

DARD Department o Agriculture and Rural Development

DFID Department or International Development

GEF Global Environmental Facility

GHG Greenhouse Gas

IMHEN Institute o Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment

IPCC Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change

MARD Ministry o Agriculture and Rural Development

MDG Millennium Development Goal

MONRE Ministry o Natural Resources and Environment

NGOs Non-Governmental Organisations

NTP National Target Program

OCHA Oce or the Coordination o Humanitarian Aairs

OHK Oxam Hong Kong

SEDPS Socio-Economic Development Plans

SLR Sea Level Rise

UNDP United Nations Development Program

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change


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Mn nngs:

Poor men and women in Ben Tre and Quangw

Tri are already experiencing the consequenc-

es o the climate changing, and in manycases are ill-equipped to reduce, or adapt

to, the consequences. They will be particu-

larly vulnerable as the number o extreme

weather events increases in intensity and/or

requency.

In many villages women are hit the hardestw

by natural disasters. They oten cannot swim,

have ewer assets to turn to or alternative

livelihoods when crops are destroyed, and

have ewer employment opportunities away

rom the home.

The perception o many villagers and localw

leaders is that the climate is already changing.

In particular, they talk o the unpredictability

o the weather and the intensity o weather

events compared to previous years.

The particular impacts o weather events varyw

rom province to province, and rom district to

district. In the case o Ben Tre, the main prob-

lems were typhoons, unpredictable weather,

and the threat o salt water intrusion rom sea

level rise and other actors. In Quang Tri, it was

more a question o unpredictable and con-

centrated rainall causing more ooding than

usual or ooding at unusual times o the year.

The example o low-income prawn armersw

in Ben Tre shows the close link between sus-

ecv S

Viet Nam is one o the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change.

The governments impressive achievements in pulling millions o people out o

poverty are seriously jeopardised by the likely increase in extreme weather events

such as severe rainall and drought, and by slow climate changes like sea level rises

and warming temperatures. Poor men and women are particularly at risk. A team

o Oxam researchers travelled to the two provinces o Ben Tre and Quang Tri inMay 2008 to take a snapshot o how poor amilies are experiencing the changing

climate, and how they might deal with this in the uture. The main ndings and

recommendations o this report are:


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Viet NaM: ClimAte ChAnge, AdAPtAtion And Poor PeoPle

4

tainable livelihoods and peoples capacity to

cope with, and recover rom, extreme weath-

er events. Sudden reductions in income due

to poor yields have led to more amilies be-

coming vulnerable.Disaster risk reduction saves lives and liveli-w

hoods. Villagers in Quang Tri have shown that

getting involved in local level disaster risk

management programmes can signicantly

reduce their vulnerability to requent or heavy

ooding. This is conrmed by Oxams wider

experience in Viet Nam o working with com-

munities to reduce their vulnerability to the

impact o weather extremes.

Adaptation works. Adaptation to climatew

change by poor communities is at an early

stage, but there are positive examples o

armers already changing their crop cycles or

planting dierent crops.

Awareness o climate change and its causesw

varies signicantly between districts, com-

munities, villages and individual households.

But in general awareness is restricted to a ew

experts, some local authorities and Non-Gov-

ernmental Organisations (NGOs).

Rmmnns:

Poor womens and mens needs and inter-w

ests must be at the heart o national and

local research and policy planning on ad-aptation. The social and economic impact

o climate change on poor men and women

should be at the oreront o any research

and policy ormulation. Any climate change

planning needs to take into consideration

livelihood resilience strategies, socially disag-

gregated vulnerability assessments and ca-

pacities or disaster risk management all at

the local level.

Community-based planning is the start-w

ing point or scaling up provincial and

national responses. One o the best ways

o reducing the risk rom climate change is

to draw on peoples own experience and per-

ceptions at the commune and village level,

and to use that as an integral ingredient o

policy responses. Their local eorts at adap-

tation and disaster risk reduction measures

should be strengthened, and where possible

scaled up to the provincial and national level.Women should be at the centre o commu-

nity-level responses as they are already very

Rescue drill or local communities is one o the disaster risk reduction activities


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exeCutiVe Summary

5

eective in some communities at mobilising

local involvement and implementation.

Integrate climate planning across govern-w

ment departments. Climate change con-

cerns should not be isolated under the remit

o any single ministry but systematically inte-

grated across all major development sectors.

Integrate adaptation into national devel-w

opment planning. Climate change adapta-

tion policies need to be integrated into long-

term planning or sustainable development

and poverty alleviation policies. In particular,climate change needs to be incorporated into

the next round o provincial Socio-Economic

Development Plans (SEDPs) (2011 2020).

The mainstreaming o adaptation measures

requires a comprehensive and integrated as-

sessment o vulnerability, and how to address

this through risk management.

More climate change-specifc research isw

needed. There is a pressing need or a much

greater knowledge base o the possibilitieso salt-resistant, ood-resistant or drought-

resistant crops, which should be developed

with the active involvement o smallholders

on their plots. In particular, national support

needs to be increased or the transition to al-ternative crops and provision o local climate

orecast inormation to armers to assist with

arm planning eorts.

Awareness and capacity building shouldw

be stepped up. There is an urgent need to

step up public awareness campaigns and

capacity building amongst key stakeholders

and key leaders at district, commune and vil-

lage level.

The international community will have tow

play a major role in supporting the govern-

ment o Viet Nams eorts to adapt to climate

change, because the amounts o investment

needed are beyond its budgetary capac-

ity. International adaptation nance will be

needed to enable a wide range o measures,

rom community-led initiatives and disaster-

risk reduction strategies to long-term nation-

al planning and social protection in the ace

o unavoidable impacts.


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Poor men and women in Viet Nam are particularly vulnerable to the eects o the climate changing.


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The Government o Viet Nam is taking the issue

o climate change very seriously and should be

applauded or its eorts. However, as the 2007

IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate

Change) reports stressed, it is poor people within

developing countries who are most at risk rom

climate change. Despite the economic boom o

recent years, there are still signicant numbers

o poor men and women living in areas o Viet

Nam particularly vulnerable to the eects o the

climate changing.

Oxam is particularly concerned about the deep

injustice o these poor communities in Viet Nam

having to pay a high price or a situation or

which they have little or no historical responsi-

bility. Most o the current global warming has

been caused by greenhouse gases (GHG) rom

the coal, oil and gas that drove the industrial rev-

olutions in Europe and America rom the middle

o the 19th century onwards. In 2000 Viet Nam

was responsible or just 0.35 per cent o world

GHG emissions, one o the lowest percentages

in the world. Yet it requently gures amongst

the top ten countries in the world to be aect-

ed by the predicted climate changes. As Oxam

has argued elsewhere, rich countries, which are

primarily responsible or creating the problem,

inrn: t ca

ca a a

Several recent studies have concurred that Viet Nam will be one o most vulner-

able countries to climate change in the world. Gradual changes such as sea level

rises and higher temperatures, more extremes o weather such as drought, and

more intense typhoons are all on the horizon and will have a potentially devastat-

ing impact on the countrys people and economy. This is particularly worrying as

Viet Nam has enjoyed one o the best development records in recent years o anycountry in the world. It is one o the ew countries on track to meet most o its

Millennium Development Goals by 2015. It reduced its poverty rate rom about

58 per cent o the population in 1993 to 18 per cent in 2006.1 Such impressive

achievements are now at risk.

1 Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asian Development Outlook 2007.


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8

have to provide the bulk o the nancing or de-

veloping countries to adapt.2

This report gives a snap shot o two areas in Viet

Nam where climate change is orecast to be a ma-

jor threat: Ben Tre is a southern coastal provincewith signicant pockets o poverty situated in the

Mekong Delta, which is predicted to be a region

very vulnerable to sea level rises. Quang Tri is also a

coastal province, but situated in central Viet Nam.

It is already very prone to extreme ooding. Inter-

views carried out in May 2008 put the human ace

on poor amilies there already suering rom the

eects o extreme weather. Testimony ater testi-

mony revealed the widespread perception rom

ordinary villagers that the climate was already

changing, particularly in its unpredictability com-

pared to 20 or 30 years ago, and or the extremes

it can reach. People in Ben Tre speak with dread o

a possible repeat o the erce typhoon unprece-

dented in recent times in that area which caused

widespread devastation in December 2006. Villag-

ers in Quang Tri complain bitterly o the unusual

requency o the ooding in October 2007 and

the unusually long cold snap in February this year

which ruined hal o their rice crop.

It is not possible to assert or sure that these

recent changes in the weather are a result o

human-caused global warming. Viet Nams cli-

mate is aected signicantly by the El Nio and

La Nia weather phenomena, which are a result

o changing temperatures in the Pacic Ocean.

Many experts say the recent changes are the re-

sult o the current La Nia year, which is associat-

ed with tropical low-pressure systems, increased

rainall and lower temperatures. Climate change

impacts on the El Nio/La Nia cycles are not

well enough understood to be able to make any

predictions with condence, although there is

some evidence that warming will increase the

intensity or requency o these phenomena. Butthe key point is that most climate modelling or

this part o the world predicts that such weather

extremes, including typhoons, drought and

heavy rainall, will become more common place

or more intense as a result o climate change.

It is hard not to imagine that these testimonies

rom Ben Tre and Quang Tri are a oretaste o

what it is to come. Global warming will add an

additional layer o vulnerability to these villag-

ers, or whom climate variability is already one othe causes o their poverty.

It is Oxams experience that poor amilies and

women in particular due to their roles in pro-

viding water, ood, uel and care - are the most

vulnerable to the eects o weather extremes.

The same people are critical agents or doing

something about it. A recent Oxam study o

Ninh Thuan province showed that armers were

experiencing more droughts because the rain

now comes in intense, concentrated bursts.3 But

communities in the province were very active in

seeking new ways o adapting to the changing

climate. Most importantly, the study concluded

that rising temperatures need not result in di-

saster i local governments and organisations

took the appropriate measures. Top o the list o

priorities was involving both women and men

rom the communities in decision making and

hearing their needs and suggestions.

2 Oxam Brieng Note, Financing adaptation: why the UNs Bali climate conerence must mandate the search or new unds, OxamInternational, 4 December 2007, available at http://www.oxam.org.uk/resources/policy/trade/downloads/bn_wdr2008.pd.


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iNtRoductioN: the ClimAte is ChAnging And so Are our lives

9

A similar story can be told in Quang Tri province.

Oxam and other organisations have been work-

ing there with local communities to reduce their

vulnerability to the impact o ooding and try to

adapt to it. Villagers are making preparations or

sudden water level rises by building platorms in

their homes, organising rescue teams and boats,

developing early warning systems and ensuring

enough ood is stored or the period o the ood-

ing. Local ocials in the Hai Lang district point

out that in 1999, the last year o very extensive

ooding, 29 people died. But last year, which was

another bad year or ooding, the death toll was

two. One o the main reasons was much bet-

ter preparation. A similar story occurred in the

Phuong My village in the nearby central province

o Ha Tinh when nobody died last year despite

heavy ooding which reached 3 to 4 metres in

depth. In addition, some local rice armers are

adapting to the climate changing by harvest-

ing their rice beore the main ooding season, or

growing a rice variety with a shorter cycle.

This report draws on the testimonies rom the

two provinces and on Oxams general experi-

ence o working in Viet Nam with vulnerable

communities to make a series o recommenda-

tions designed to support the governments im-

plementation o the national plan to adapt to the

climate change at central as well as local level.

3 Peoples Committee o N inh Thuan, Oxam-Vietnam and the Graduate School o Global Environmental Studies o Kyoto University,Drought Management Considerations or Climate Change Adaptation: Focus on the Mekong Region, mimeo, 2007.

Some local armers are adapting by harvesting their rice beore the main ooding season.


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The coastal poor are particularly vulnerable to weather extremes every year


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In 2004, 16 million people were still classied as

poor (equivalent to more than the population o

neighbouring Cambodia) and another 28 mil-

lion lived just above the ocial poverty line.6 It

would not take much to push them back into

poverty. Although the highest percentage o

poor men and women is concentrated amongst

ethnic minorities in the highland areas, in abso-

lute terms the greatest numbers o poor people

live in the coastal areas, including the Red River

and Mekong River deltas. Many o these rely

largely on agricultural activities, but are vulner-

able to increasing land scarcity, low paid o-

arm employment and uncertain access to basic

services.7 Others are poor shing communities

who are becoming more at risk to the vagaries

o the weather.

The coastal poor are particularly vulnerable to

weather extremes every year. The 3,000kms o

Viet Nams eastern coastal seaboard is one o

the most vulnerable spots in the world or ty-

phoons, as graphically illustrated by the chart

made by the UNs Oce or the Coordination o

Humanitarian Aairs (OCHA) o tropical storms

rom 1956-2006.

Pvry n lm hng

n V N

Between 1993 and 2006 a staggering 34 million Vietnamese people out o a total

population o 85 million were pulled out o poverty mainly as a result o strong

economic growth, pro-poor development policies particularly in the agriculture

sector and a strong government commitment. Poverty reduction is one o the six

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) already achieved by the Government o

Viet Nam.4

However, international organisations have recently warned o the re-maining challenges ahead, which are being exacerbated by climate change.5

4 Department or International Development (DFID), Vietnam: Country Assistance Plan, February 2008, p.5.5 UNDP, Terms o Reerence or Technical Assistance to conduct the eleventh PEP Case-study: Linkage o Poverty and Climate Change,

Hanoi, mimeo, December 2007; VARG, Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management or Sustainable PovertyReduction, Viet Nam Country Study, November 2006.

6 The ocial poverty gure or 2006 was 19 per cent, which works out roughly at 16 million people.7 DFID, Viet Nam Country Assistance Plan, pp. 6-7.


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Ffy yrs f trpl Srms n as P

V Nm s n f h ms vlnrbl sps n h wrl fr yphns

Source:United Nations Oce or the Coordination o Humanitarian aairs (OCHA)


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PoVerty aNd Climate ChaNge iN Viet Nam

13

Viet Nam has an admirable history o coping

with natural disasters and reducing their eects,

but the economic and human costs can still be

huge. In the decade between 1991 and 2000 or

example, ocial estimates are that 8,000 people

lost their lives as a result o storms, oods, andland slides. Economic losses amounted to nearly

US$3 billion.8 According to the World Banks 2008

Global Monitoring Report, Viet Nam ranks eighth

in the ten most vulnerable countries in East Asia

to weather extremes.9 A staggering 70 per cent

o the countrys population live in areas subject

to water-related natural disasters.10

For a whole variety o reasons poor men and

women are more vulnerable to these shocks.

They are more likely to live in areas vulnerable

to ooding and other natural disasters, and less

likely to live in more robust permanent homes.

The impact o ooding, storms or drought is usu-

ally greater on poor people as they have ewer

resources to recover. Inability to pay o debt or

take out new loans, increases in local ood prices,

and illness due to water-borne diseases can all

disproportionately aect the poor.

Women and men are also aected dierently by

climate change because o the dierent roles

they play in the household economy. They have

dierent resources with which to perorm these

roles, including dierent levels o education, ac-

cess to power, social norms, access to credit, and

ownership o land and other goods. Testimonies

rom BenTre and Quang Tri showed that women

are oten playing the multiple roles o arming

crops as well as being primarily responsible or

providing ood, water and uel or the amily, and

caring or the sick. All these roles are made more

onerous by the impacts o climate change.

8 Peter Chaudhry and Greet Ruysschaert, Climate Change and Human Development in Viet Nam, UNDP Occasional Paper, 2007, p. 2.9 World Bank, Global Monitoring Report 2008, p. 21310 Huu Ninh Nguyen, Flooding in Mekong River Delta, Viet Nam, UNDP Occasional Paper, 2007, p. 3.

A staggering 70 per cent o the countrys population live in areas subject to water-relatednatural disasters


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The multiple roles women play in the amily are made more onerous by the impacts o climate change.


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There is evidence that over the last orty years

there has been an increase in the number o

disaster events. This is just one o the changes

monitored by climate scientists in Viet Nam.11

The others are:

There has been an annual temperature rise ow

0.1 degrees C per decade between 1931 and

2000, and o between 0.4 and 0.8 degrees C

in the countrys three main cities rom 1991

to 2000.

Wide regional variations in rainall have beenw

recorded, but the annual volume has re-

mained largely stable. However, the localised

intensity and unpredictability o the rainall

has increased, causing severe oods.

There have been more droughts in the southw

in recent years, which have tended to last

longer.

The sea level has risen between 2.5 to 3.0cmsw

per decade in the last 50 years, but with re-

gional variations.

Typhoons have reduced in number in the lastw

our decades, but they have become more

intense and are tracking southwards.

El Nio/La Nia weather events have be-w

come more intense in the last 50 years, caus-

ing more typhoons, oods and droughts.

Just in the last twelve months, there have beenunusual weather patterns including storms,

oods, and drought aecting tens o thousands

o people across the country. In the central prov-

inces, local people pointed to the heavier rainall

in the main ooding season at the end o 2007.

In the south o the country, Ho Chi Minh City was

hit in November 2007 by the worst high tides in

48 years, which destroyed some 40 sections o

the dyke around the city.12 Hundreds o school

children were unable to go to school, and hous-

es, businesses and arms were all badly dam-

aged. And in northern Viet Nam, the National Hy-

drometeorological Forecasting Centre reported

that a sustained cold spell in early 2008 lasted

or an unprecedented 38 days, beating the previ-

ous record o 31 days set in 1989. Temperatures

dropped to below 10 degrees C, and reached -2

degrees C in two localities a rarity in Viet Nam.13

clm hng - pa, p

a

11 Interviews with Vietnamese climate scientists; MONRE, National Target Program to respond to Climate Change, Hanoi, mimeo,March 2008; Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, ibid, pp. 3-6

12 Vietnam News, 27 November 200713 Vietnam News, 19 February 2008


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16

The cold weather killed more than 60,000 cattle,

destroyed at least 100,000 hectares o rice, and

caused economic losses o US$30m.14

Vietnamese climate scientists blamed much o

the recent unusual weather on the La Nia phe-nomenon. La Nia is the opposite meteorologi-

cally o the better known El Nio, and usually is

associated with a drop in sea surace tempera-

tures in the eastern and central Pacic Ocean by

1.5-2.0 degrees below the average. The latest La

Nia period which started in the third quarter o

2007 and was due to last until July 2008, was par-

ticularly intense and was linked to weather ex-

tremes as ar apart as Australia, China and Chile.

Climate scientists in Viet Nam interviewed or this

report say El Nio and La Nia weather events

will become more intense as a result o global

warming. Many scientists agree, but others

point out that dierent computer climate mod-

els come up with dierent results: some models

have suggested that an increase in GHG in the

atmosphere will increase the requency and in-

tensity o El Nio/La Nias. However, other mod-

els predict little or no change in how they occur.

There is much less doubt that global warming

is very likely to bring an increased risk o disas-

ters to Viet Nam. There will be an increase in the

intensity and/or requency o extreme weather

events such as typhoons, ooding and drought,

whilst other changes will be more gradual like

sea level rises, salt water intrusion and warming

temperatures. All could have a very damaging

eect on poor men and women. There are di-

erent predictions but there is broad consensus

that, i there is no major international eort to re-

duce global greenhouse gas emissions, then:15

Average temperature is expected to increasew

by between 1 to 2 degrees C (over pre-indus-

trial levels) by 2050, and by 2 to 3 degrees by

2100.

Rainall patterns will vary rom region to re-w

gion, but rainall and droughts are likely to in-

crease both in intensity and in area o impact.

Rainall is likely to be less predictable.

Typhoons are expected to increase in inten-w

sity and be subject to more unpredictability.They may also continue the trend o also a-

ecting the south o the country. Storm surge

heights are expected to increase on the

coasts.

The sea level may rise between 30-35cms byw

2050, 40-50cms by 2070 and 60-70cms by

2100.

By 2070 the ow o the countrys two mainw

rivers, the Red River and Mekong River, in theood season is expected to rise by between

7 and 15 per cent, leading to more severe

ooding, and to decline in the dry season by

between 2 and 15 per cent.

Such changes are bound to have a major aect

on virtually all sectors o the economy, but par-

ticularly agriculture. They will also aect dierent

parts o the country dierently.

14 Vietnam News, 26 February 200815 Same sources as in note 11


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Climate ChaNge - PaSt, PreSeNt aNd future

17

Mp f V Nm shwng lkly mps f lm hng hs nry

Viet Nams senior government gures are known to be most worried about sea level rises (SLR). This

is not surprising when a widely-quoted World Bank study in February 2007 estimated that Viet Nam

would be one o the top two countries in the world most at risk rom a one metre rise in sea level by

2100, and the most at risk in East Asia. 16 This is because o the high percentage o its population and

economic activity located in the low-lying Mekong and Red River deltas. (see box on Mekong Delta)

Assuming no adaptation, nearly 11 percent o its population would be aected (nine million people),

the highest percentage in the world. The World Bank also calculated that a one-metre SLR would im-

pact 5 per cent o Viet Nams surace area and 10 per cent o its GDP. This would also have an impact

on a higher percentage o its urban areas than any other East Asian country, a higher percentage o its

wetland areas and a higher percentage o agricultural land. The projections or a 3 and 5-metre SLR are

described as potentially catastrophic.

16 Susmita Dasgupta et al., The Impact o Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A comparative analysis, World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper 4136, February 2007.

Lake Sap

Mekon

gRiver

RedR

iver

Me

kong River

Con Dao Islands

Hoang Sa Arch

Truong Sa Arch

Phu Quoc Island

HAINAN

Ha Long Bay

Gulf

of

Tonkin

Gulf

of

Thailand

East

Sea

Cam Ranh Bay

HAI PHONG

THAILAND

CHINA

VIETNAMLAOS

CAMBODIA

VINH

HUE

BEN TRE

QUANG TRI

DANANG

HANOI

NHA TRANG

HOCHIMINH CITY

Nrhs n Nrhws; srms

shs, rghR Rvr dl: srms, s,

nnn, SLR n srm srgs

cnrl ss: srms, s,

shs, SLR

cnrl hghlns: s, rgh, srms

Mkng Rvr dl: Fls, sln

nrsn, srms, lnsls, rghs


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18

The ocial SLR predictions or Viet Nam are roughly in line with the IPCCs 2007 projections or world-

wide rises. But as the IPCC clearly states, their estimates or SLR are a result o thermal expansion only,and do not include the potential rise rom melting ice sheets. Reports in the last twelve months o

the unprecedented melting o the ice sheets in the Arctic and Western Antarctica have strengthened

the views o those scientists who think that SLR will be at least a metre by 2100.17 A ull melting o

Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets would raise sea levels by many metres, but i it happened, it

would most likely take centuries.

innn zn f V Nm fr n-mr SLR

h N

H Phng

H ch Mnh

17 See or example, Richard Black, Forecast or big sea level rise, BBC News Website, 15 April 2008.

Source: World Bank, February 2007


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Climate ChaNge - PaSt, PreSeNt aNd future

19

th Mkng dl

The Mekong Delta has been highlighted by recent IPCC, UN and World Bank reports as an

area o particular concern because o the potentially devastating eects climate change couldbring in the coming decades.18 Stretching rom the Gul o Thailand in the south to the Cam-

bodian border in the west, it is one o the most densely populated areas o Viet Nam and home

to more than 17 million people in its 16 provinces. It produces more than hal o the countrys

rice, and 90 per cent o its rice exports helping to turn Viet Nam into the worlds second larg-

est rice exporter in the world. It accounts or an even larger share o national sh and ruit

production, much o which is now exported to China. Despite impressive growth gures or

the region, our million people are still classied as living in poverty. Many lack basic health

protection and school drop-out rates are high. Only a quarter o classrooms are solidly built.

It is a region already prone to requent and large-scale ooding, sea water intrusion and con-

taminated soil. For example, it is the area most aected by saline intrusion in Viet Nam with an

estimated 1.8 million hectares o salinised land. Typhoons have recently begun to be a prob-

lem. As recently ago as 1994, a report by the Asian Development Bank on climate change was

able to state categorically that the Mekong Delta was ree o typhoons.19 Just 15 years on, that

is clearly no longer the case.

As shown by the May 2008 Cyclone Nargis

in Myanmar (Burma), river deltas are particu-

larly vulnerable to weather extremes. They

are lowlands ormed out o sediment settling

where rivers meet the sea. Most are sinkingnaturally, but in many cases the subsidence is

accelerated by human activities like building

upriver dams. Soil erosion is oten hastened

by the destruction o mangrove orest.

In the particular case o the Mekong Delta, the threats are:

Sea level rise could be anywhere between 30cms and 1 metre by 2100, although the upperw

end is more likely. I it does reach 1 metre, 90 per cent o the Delta would be inundated

every year.

Even by 2030, the sea level rise could expose around 45 per cent o the Deltas land area tow

extreme salinisation and crop damage through ooding.

The dry season ow o the Mekong River is projected to drop by between 2.0 to 4.0 perw

cent by 2070, which would another actor aiding salinisation and water shortages.

Declining crop productivity would particularly aect the spring rice crop, which is expect-w

ed to all by 8 per cent by 2070.

18 The sources or the inormation in this box are UNDP, Human Development Repor t 2007/8, Fighting Climate Change: Human soli-darity in a divided world, Palgrave MacMillan, New York 2007. IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II report, Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability, March 2007, ch. 10. Huu Ninh Nguyen, ibid, and S. Dasgupta et al., ibid.

19 Asian Development Bank, Climate Change in Asia: Vietnam Country Report, July 1994, p. 27.


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Ben Tre is particularly vulnerable to sea water intrusion


23/5621

It is one o the provinces o the Mekong Deltawhich unnels the 4,800km-long Mekong River

out into the South China Sea through the so-

called nine dragons. It orms part o the huge

rice basket o the delta which has played a major

role in pulling many Vietnamese people out o

poverty and turning Viet Nam into the worlds

second-largest rice exporter. Ben Tre is also an

area rich in ruit trees and coconuts, boasting the

largest area o nurseries in the country produc-

ing 25 million plants per year. Prawn arming has

recently become a major income earner.

Although the majority o Ben Tres inhabitants

are no longer ocially dened as poor, signi-

cant pockets o poverty remain. It has the high-

est absolute number o poor people o any prov-

ince in the Mekong Delta: more than 245,000

people, equivalent to about 17.5 per cent o its

population o about 1.4 million.

It is particularly vulnerable to sea water intrusionas it is very low-lying and our rivers run through

or by it. A recent study said the province would

be the one most harmed by a one metre rise in

sea level by 2100.20 According to the study:

More than 50 per cent o the land area o thew

province would be aected, equivalent to an

area o 1,130 sq. kms.

More than 750,000 people in the provincew

would be aected, equivalent to 55 per cento the population.

Many more poor people throughout Ben Trew

and the delta would be exposed to increas-

ingly worsening conditions.

The number o villagers aected rises steeplyw

i storm surge is also taken into account.

Bn t -

ca ca

The southern province o Ben Tre is particularly vulnerable to climate change. It is

an island surrounded by rivers and the sea and criss-crossed by two other rivers,

canals and irrigation channels. As the map shows, virtually the whole province lies

less than 1.5 metres above sea level.

20 Jeremy Carew-Reid, Rapid Assessment o the Extent and Impact o Sea Level Rise in Viet Nam, International Centre or Environmen-tal Management, mimeo (no date)


24/56

mapofBentre

Source:CartographicPublishingHouse-Vietnam


25/56

BeN tre - on the frontline of ClimAte ChAnge

23

Interviews conducted in May 2008 with villag-

ers, commune leaders, provincial authorities and

local scientists and experts conrmed the view

that Ben Tre and poor men and women who live

there are particularly vulnerable to the changing

climate:

The province used to be a place without1.

natural disasters, but local people are saying

this is no longer true. Since the late 1990s, ty-

phoons have become more commonplace.

But unlike many other provinces where Viet-

namese people have a long history o coping

with disasters, Ben Tre has little experience to

draw on.

Sea level rise will have ar-reaching impacts2.on the economy and peoples livelihoods as

the province is already suering rom a rapid

increase in salt water intrusion. In a ew parts

o the province near the coast, the concentra-

tion o salt in the water has already reached

30 parts per thousand (ppt) which makes

growing most agricultural products virtually

impossible (the Pacic Ocean or example av-

erages between 32 and 35ppt).

Villagers and scientists say the climate is3.

changing in other ways too. In particular,

unpredictability o the weather, the unusual

timing o the seasons, and the intensity o

weather events is already making arming

activities dicult and in many cases reduc-

ing agricultural productivity.

In the particular case o the Binh Dai dis-4.

trict o Ben Tre, many armers have recently

turned to prawn arming. But the very pooryields in the last two years have drastically

reduced their income, and made them less

able to adapt to the changing weather and

to bounce back rom the weather extremes

that have taken place.

typhns

Ben Tre is not accustomed to typhoons. Local

ocials at the Department o Agriculture and

Rural Development (DARD) say this began to

change in 1997-8, when Ben Tre started to be

bueted by them ater a gap o nearly 100 years.

It is thought that the last serious one to aect

the province took place as ar back as 1904. Butin 1997, a typhoon called Storm No 5 in Viet

Nam hit several south-western provinces, in-

Poor yields rom prawn arming make many less able to cope with the changing climate


26/56


24

cluding Ben Tre. The storm swooped by the near-

shore waters and mainly damaged shing boats

still working at sea.

Storm No 9, also known internationally as Ty-

phoon Durian, was much more destructive. It di-

rectly hit mainland areas o Ben Tre province and

others along the southern coast on the night o

5 December 2006 and the ollowing morning.

Typhoon Durian was highly unusual both orits intensity and or how ar south it had landed.

Many o the villagers were simply not prepared

or the typhoon as unlike many other parts o

Viet Nam, they were simply not used to them.

Binh Dai was one o the worst hit districts o Ben

Tre, which was one o the worst hit provinces

in the Mekong Delta. Just in the commune o

Dai Hoa Loc, nearly 900 houses were totally de-

stroyed and another 1,000 lost their roos. For-tunately, the typhoon was not accompanied by

lasting ooding as the rivers carried the water

out to sea, or the damage would have been

more widespread.

For the whole o the province, 18 people lost

their lives and nearly 700 were injured. Out o

a total household population o about 280,000,

more than 40 per cent (120,000 households)

either lost their homes completely or lost their

roos. The damage to prawn arms, sugar cane,orchards and coconut trees was extensive. Near-

ly 90 school classrooms collapsed and more than

50 health clinics were destroyed. In all, the total

damage amounted to US$200 million, a gure

equivalent to about two-thirds o the provinces

total exports rom 2001-2005.21

The testimony o Mrs. Xoan (page 26) shows how

the typhoon can aect women disproportion-

ately. She is a widow living with her daughterand three grandchildren. The main amily income

21 Figures or the destruction in Binh Dai were provided by local ocials.

80 to 90 per cent o amilies in Binh Dai can not aord to build houses with proper walls and roofng.


27/56


25

comes rom her daughters husband who works

as a sherman in another commune. Ater the

typhoon, they had to live under a makeshit roo

o water coconut leaves or longer than other

amilies, waiting or her son-in-law to rebuild the

house. Because o her limited assets, she cannotraise any credit or capital to improve her income

and diversiy rom sugar cane. Her only income

this year has been as a casual labourer cutting

grass at US$2 a day. She is very concerned that

she does not have the resources to build a con-

crete house or a concrete shelter or when the

next typhoon hits the area.

In May 2008 Mrs. Xoan and other villagers in

the Binh Dai district were still talking earully o

storm No 9, and were very worried that it may be

repeated soon. It is still, in the words o several

o the villagers and village leaders, very much on

our minds. Some householders say they are bet-

ter prepared as they put sandbags on the roo

or tie the roo down when there is a warning o

typhoons. But many, like Mrs. Xoan, are not. They

say only 10 to 20 per cent o the houses in the

villages are made o concrete, and complain that

the ailure o the prawn arming makes it even

more dicult to aord proper walls and roong.

Several villagers showed considerable resource-

ulness in coping with Storm No 9, including one

amily nding protection behind a low-walled

pigsty or several days (sheltering behind a high-

er concrete wall would have been more danger-

ous as it may have collapsed on them). However,

most o the amilies interviewed said they still

did not have adequate protection and had not

received training in preparing or typhoons.

Scientists rom the Ministry o Natural Resources

and Environment (MONRE) and the Institute o Me-

teorology, Hydrology and Environment (INMHE)

say they are concerned about the increased pos-

sibility o more intense typhoons hitting Viet Nam

in the uture, and o their moving urther south-

wards. The Governments National Target Program

warns specically o this danger and the increased

risk to local communities in coastal areas.22

The local commune authorities say they are mak-

ing preparations or more typhoons by building

local evacuation centres or poorer amilies and

encouraging better-resourced individual ami-

lies to build their own shelters. However, both

they and local Red Cross ocials say much more

needs to be done in awareness raising, capacity

building and preparing or typhoons in a prov-

ince which does not have a history o adaptation

and disaster risk reduction measures.

22 MONRE, National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change, p. 10.

The low-walled pigsty became a sae shelter or Mr. Dao Van

Thuong, 63, and his amily during Storm No 9, 2006


28/56


26

W r vry sr h yphn wll hppn gn

m. ny t Xa, 59, B P a, ta t c, B da c

It was 6 o clock in the morning. We were all asleep. The wind was getting stronger and stronger

every minute. My grandchildren and I quickly ran to the back o the house and took shelter between

our concrete water containers. Ater two hours the wind died down. When I opened my eyes, I could

not believe what I was seeing. My house and all the houses in the entire village had totally collapsed.

I saw everyone crying and I also cried.

Even now whenever my six-year-old grandson

hears the sound o the rain, he runs inside the

house and manages to put all his clothes in a

bag. He really wants us to leave the house per-

haps because he can never orget the day the

typhoon hit in 2006. We all got soaked, we elt

extremely cold and he was so rightened.

Most o our urniture was broken. On the day we

were only able to take the TV with us because it

is the most valuable thing we had in the house.

We were inormed about the typhoon rom the radio and the loud speakers. In act every year we

had typhoons but we did not expect the big typhoon like the one in 2006, so the preparation or that

typhoon was not good enough. To be honest, I have never seen any big typhoon like that beore.

Even my ather who was then 85 years old had never witnessed the huge typhoon like that.

Each household was given emergency ood and 5 million dong (US$310) by the local authorities or

rebuilding the house. However, we spent only 2 million dong on ours, because we were able to use

most o the materials that we already had. It took us 20 days to complete because there is only one

man in the amily, my son-in law, so we had to wait or him to fnish the rebuilding work that he did

or his parents house. During that time we lived outside. We set up our bamboo poles and put up

a cover made o water coconut leaves to live there temporarily. Every household in this village lived

in the same conditions.

We are very, very scared the typhoon will happen again. Like most o the houses in the village, ours

is not made o concrete. We need a typhoon shelter like the ones I have seen on television. But we do

not have enough money or one.


29/56


27

Sl wr nrsn: y

Scientists at Ben Tres two main government

departments dealing with climate change, De-

partment o Science and Technology (DOST)and DARD, are extremely concerned about the

signicant increase in the amount o salt get-

ting into the rivers, canals and other water sys-

tems in recent years. There is no agreement as

to how large a role rising sea levels is playing in

this process o salinisation. However, whatever

the exact balance o causes, the key points are

that local leaders and villagers are already very

worried about the eect higher concentrations

o salt are having on their livelihoods, and sec-ondly, with the sort o predictions or SLR in the

coming years, extreme salinisation particularly

in the coastal areas o the Mekong Delta will be-

come an even greater problem, and especially

or poorer amilies who have less resources and

options to be able to adapt.

Ocials at the DARD say that the combination

o more drought in the dry season (usually rom

December to April in Ben Tre) and the sea wa-

ter travelling higher up the rivers has combined

both to increase the amount o salt in the water

and to carry the salted water into areas not pre-

viously aected by salinisation. Ocial gures

show that rom 2002-5, the saline content in

three rivers (Cua Dai, Ham Luong and Co Chien)

increased signicantly in the three months rom

February to April as measured at ve stations

throughout the province. For the month o May,

it had dropped slightly in our o the ve stations

and increased at one. DARD ocials say that at

the end o the dry season in May 2007 the salty

water covered about two-thirds o the province

and had travelled about 60kms up the rivers rom

the sea a rise o 10 kms in the last ve years.

They also say the concentration o salt in the

rivers has increased to 4ppt in some parts, the

point at which rice cannot survive. In other ar-

eas not previously aected, it has reached 1 or

2ppt which seriously aects orchards and nurs-

eries. Ocial DARD gures or economic losses

as a result o increased salinisation are alarming:

in 2003 salt water intrusion caused 12 billion

dongs worth o damage (US$750,000) in the

province, and 16,000 households had no resh

water. By 2005 that gure had risen to 570 billion

Many amilies have to buy resh water due to increased salinisation


30/56


28

dong (US$37m), mainly due to loss o produc-

tivity rom rice elds, ruit trees, coconut trees

and sugar cane. The number o households

without resh water that year had increased

to 110,000 out o a total number in Ben Tre o

about 280,000.

Press reports in national and international me-

dia in early 2008 conrm that the problem is not

conned to Ben Tre province. The nearby prov-

inces o Tien Giang, Ca Mau and Kien Giang all re-

ported rice elds and aquaculture ponds being

aected by salt water intrusion, causing millions

o dong o damage. In the orchard area o Ben

Tre, high levels o salt water had also threatened

12,300ha o ruit trees in the Cho Lach District.23

A local coconut armer in the town o Phuoc

Long more than 40kms rom the sea on the Ham

Luong tributary in the north-west o Ben Tre said

in April that the sea water was getting higher

and higher every year, threatening his livelihood.

The sea water had reached Phuoc Long as early

as December just ater the rainy season. The

river is changing, we are sure, he said. Its salt wa-

ter is stealing our land. Every year it comes higher

and higher.24

In some communities in Ben Tre, they now have

to use salt water to do their washing so that they

have enough resh water let or drinking. One

villager in the Binh Dai district said the salt water

now remained or as long as eight months o the

year. Beore, we had six months o saline water and

six months o resh water.said Luong Van Huynh,

57, Binh Loc Commune, Binh Dai District, Ben Tre.

Now there are eight months o salt water and only

our months resh water, but the water also tastes

saltier during the resh water season.

Another said she could no longer grow grass to

eed the cows because o the salt content. Thereis too much salt in the land here or grass to grow.

said Hoang My Le, 50, Hamlet 1, Binh Thanh 1,

Thanh Tri Commune, Binh Dai District, Ben Tre. I

wish there was somewhere I could go to grow grass

to raise cows

The increased salinity is causing widespread

problems or the Dai Hoa Loc commune as ex-

plained by the vice-chairman o the Peoples

Committee, Ha Minh Ho:

The issue o increased salinity is a real problem or

our commune. This year at one point there were 30

parts per thousand (ppt) o salt in the water com-

pared to 11-12 ppt fve years ago. When it reaches

30 ppt, there is very little you can do except wait or

the rainy season to come and take the salt water

back down again to the sea.

We are not sure o the reason, but it may be to do

with the strong winds blowing the sea water higher

up the rivers. The sea water also remains or longer.

For example there is not enough time or some veg-

etables to grow, because the period when there is

no salt is shorter.

The unpredictability o the salt content also makes

prawn arming more dicult. You need to regulate

the salt content about 15 ppt or baby prawns,

23 Vietnam News Agency, Salt water threatens arms in Mekong Delta, 12 March 2008.24 Greg Torode, Sinking Feeling: As sea levels rise, salt water is threatening to devastate crops and livelihoods in the Mekong Delta,

South China Morning Post, 8 April 2008.


31/56


29

I dont know why the weather is changing...a l

va hy, 57, B lc C, B da dc, B

t. It seems more unpredictable: it rains less and when it

rains it keeps going for two weeks; when it is hot it seems to

last longer as well.

then 10 ppt or more mature prawns, but it is di-

fcult to do this when the saline content is high.

For the last three to fve years, we have also had to

buy drinking water. The wells are much saltier since

the typhoon in 2006.

Most experts think the main reason or the rapid

increase in salinisation in the area was due to

the reshwater not coming down the rivers in

sucient quantities, particularly in the rainy

season, to wash the salty water back down the

estuaries into the sea. Deorestation, widespread

upstream irrigation, increased land use and hy-

droelectric dams are most likely to be the main

causes. But one government scientist at MONRE

said sea level rise is already one important ac-

tor. He pointed out that the general sea level rise

or Viet Nam was measured at between 2.5 to

3.0cms per decade in the last ty years (a total

o between 12.5 and 15cms), and that one sta-

tion had measured a rise o as much as 20cms in

the last orty years.

chngs n h whr: y

cy

Every single person interviewed in Ben Tre in May

2008 said local weather patterns were changing.

Dierent interviewees stressed dierent aspectso these changes, but all concurred that in the

last ew years the weather was becoming less

easy to predict and more prone to extremes.

The most obvious example was the unusual ty-

phoon in December 2006, but there were other

examples cited:

An increase in the period o droughtw

An increase in the intensity o rainall whenw

it rains

An increase in the unpredictability o thew

rainy season, and particularly an earlier start

to the season, making the timing o planting

more dicult.

The eects o the climate changing on the lives

o poor men and women in Binh Dai district are

various. In particular, prawn armers testied that

the unpredictability o the weather made it more


32/56


30

dicult both to regulate the salt content in the

ponds and to know when to introduce the baby

prawns into the ponds. Others armers spoke o

declining rice productivity due to longer peri-

ods o drought. Their ability to cope depended

on a whole array o actors, but many had beenorced to seek o-arm employment as labour-

ers. Poorer amilies clearly had ewer options to

adapt to the eects o the weather changes.

The perceptions o poor villagers living in the

Binh Dai district are supported to some extent

by ocial gures. Usually Ben Tre has a rainy

season roughly rom May to November, ollowed

by a dry season rom December to April the ol-

lowing year. But local data or rainall in Binh Dai

show that in 2005-6 or example, the dry season

and the rainy season did start unusually early - in

November and March respectively. Indeed, near-

ly 80mm o rain ell in March 2006, a record or

the period 1987-2006 and our times as much as

the next highest gure recorded in 1991. How-

ever, the data also show that the monthly rainall

during the rainy season o 2006 was about the

same as the 20-year average. But the data

cannot show the intensity o the rainall

within each month so the villagers perceptions

may still be correct.

DOST ocials say that or the whole o the prov-

ince o Ben Tre there has recently been more

rainall in the rainy season and more drought inthe dry season, the seasons have been starting

earlier, and the rainall is becoming less predict-

able. Ocial gures show that or 2005-6, the

dry season did start unusually earlier (in No-

vember) as did the rainy season (in March). The

rainall or each month rom June to September

was very high (a record or each month or the

period 1988-2006), and the yearly total o 2,518

mm was the second highest recorded over the

same period.

DOST ocials also say that more rainall in the

rainy season is causing a rise in the water levels

in the province. In the last ve years the greater

volume o river water combined with the high

tide has resulted in a rise in the water level o

about 15cm-20cm above the average level com-

pared to previous years. According to the DARD,

this alone causes on average damages o about

100 billion dong (US$6m) a year.

Usually, it ooded once a year around November time. This

year, it has ooded four to ve times already.a ha my

l, 50, ha 1, B ta 1, ta t C, B da

dc, B t.


33/56


31

It has been more difcult for me to nd work in the last two years, working

as a prawn farming keeper in the surrounding communes.a ny

ta na, 39, B lc C, B da dc, B t

Too much rain and too much sun make the prawns get sick easily. The

owner lost the prawns so I lost my job. Earlier this year my wife and el-

dest daughter had to go to Ho Chi Minh City to nd jobs because I dont

get a regular income.

As already discussed, it is not yet possible to say

i these individual weather extremes are due to

global warming. They are more likely to be linked

to the cycle o El Nio and La Nia weather pat-

terns. However, whatever the causes, the recent

changes in the weather give a oretaste o what

is likely to happen in the years to come as a result

o climate change, and they show the devastat-

ing eect it has on poor amilies.

Prwn frmng: a a k

The Binh Dai district is seen as a particularly suit-

able area or prawn arming with the combina-

tion o resh, brackish and sea water within its

boundaries. In the Dai Hoa Loc commune or

example, out o total area o 2,300 hectares, by

2005 nearly 1,300 hectares o it were dedicated

to prawn arming. According to the communes

vice-chairman, ve years ago 80 per cent o

the villagers were rice armers, but by 2008 the

same percentage were now prawn armers or

involved as labourers in the dierent types o in

prawn arming.25

The main reason or the rapid switch was the

boom in international demand or prawns, par-

ticularly in European and US markets. Villagers

said the prots rom prawn arming were about

ten times those o rice arming, while one recent

study put the gure higher. It calculated that the

average rice crop gave a prot o about US$190

per hectare, whilst or prawn arming it could

reach between US$620 and US$940.26 Another

reason many small armers changed rom rice to

prawn arming has been the increasingly brack-

ish quality to the water, which is good or breed-

ing prawns but not or rice.

25 There are dierent models o prawn arming in Binh Dai, including intensive, semi-intensive, semi-industrial and integrated shrimpand rice arms.

26 Center or Development and Integration, Trade Liberalisation and shrimp arming o the poor in Ben Tre province, mimeo, Hanoi,May 2006, p.7.


34/56


32

In the early years, the dramatic increase in in-

come helped to lit many people out o poverty

in the district. In Dai Hoa Loc commune, the

poverty rate was reduced to about 14 per cent,

whilst the nearby commune o Thanh Phuoc be-

came the richest commune in the district.

However, by May 2008 many o the villagers were

acing a very signicant drop in income in the

last two years and were probably back to being

classied as poor. O the ten prawn armers inter-

viewed, only one was coping with the downturn

and that was because he had a greater pond

area, and two ponds instead o the usual one.

The common story was o drastic losses which

had let the armers deeply in debt, seeking o-

arm activities and in some cases keen to move

out o prawn arming.

47-year-old Nguyen Chi Cong rom the Thanh Tri

commune was typical. He said he had made a

prot o about US$3,000 a year or the rst two

years but had made a loss or the last three years.

He was still managing to cope by living o the

prots o the rst two years. He still wanted topersevere with prawn arming because o the

possibility o high prots, but other armers in-

terviewed wanted either to switch to sh arm-

ing or move back to rice. One o the obstacles

was that it is very dicult to revert to rice be-

cause prawn arming has raised the saline con-

tent in the ground. Experts believe that it can

make many years or rice to be able to be culti-

vated again.

Villagers in the two communes o Dai Hoa Loc

and Thanh Tri said only about one in ten o

prawn arming households were not making

a loss. They blamed a series o actors or the

poor yields, including the unpredictability o the

weather, diseases aecting the prawns, polluted

water, and other environmental changes. They

also pointed out that with abandonment o rice

arming (which oten produced enough to eed

them or about six months o the year), they now

had to nd the income to buy rice or twelve

months o the year.

The experience o poorer amilies in Binh Dai

would seem to support the conclusions o vari-

ous studies o prawn arming in Viet Nam and

other parts o the world that poorly resourced

armers can oten end up worse o.27 Prawn

arming requires signicant investments o capi-

27 Centre or Development and Integration, ibid. See also or example the Lampung declaration o 6 September 2007 against Indus-trial Shrimp Aquaculture, signed by local communities and NGOs rom 17 dierent countries, which included widening incomegaps and ecological damage amongst its criticism o shrimp arming. Available at: http://www.orestpeoples.org/documents/prv_sector/shrmp_ms/lampung_decl_sept07_eng.shtml

Losses rom prawn arming have made poorer amilies less able to cope with extreme

weather events


35/56


33

tal, careul technical and eed management con-

trols, constant dredging, and ideally three ponds

one or the prawns, one or waste and one or

sediment deposition. Most o the poorer arm-

ers interviewed only had one pond o less than

one hectare. They also oten have to sell theirprawns at a lower price to traders, whilst the bet-

ter-o can sell straight to the processing com-

panies. Borrowing money is particularly risky as

there will be no money to pay o the loans in the

event o crop ailure.

The impact o the downturn was widespread.

Mr Dang Van Vong rom the Binh Loc Commune

had been orced to sell o most o his 13-hectare

plot o land to be able to pay o the bank loan

he had taken out or prawn breeding. Another

interviewee, Mr Le Van Thien, had lost about 10

million dong (US$625) a year or the last three

years rom prawn arming, and was coping by

borrowing money rom riends. Mrs Pham Thi

Hoa had lost everything in the last two years o

prawn arming, but was surviving rom the in-

come o her two sons who were delivering coco-

nut shells and ice cubes in the neighbourhood.

What has the plight o poor prawn armers inBen Tre to do with climate change? Firstly, the

changing climate and its unpredictability make

poorer amilies particularly susceptible to in-

come loss rom already risky livelihoods like

prawn arming. Secondly, the losses rom prawn

arming have made poorer amilies less able to

cope with extreme weather events. As one arm-

er complained, the act that he had been losing

money prior to the December 2006 typhoon

let him unable to build a stronger house with

concrete walls or when the next typhoon came

along. And nally and most importantly, the ex-

ample o prawn arming shows that planning or

adapting to the eects o climate change needs

a combined policy approach which includes

I had to sell 10 hectares of my 13-hectare plot recently to pay

back part of the loan I had borrowed from the bank. I am in debt

because prawn farming in the last few years has not brought

me any prot.a da va v, 54, B lc C,

B da dc, B t.

Bad weather is among the reasons why I am losing money.

The rainy season came early this year. The unusual changes

from sunny to rainy made the ponds temperature change from

hot and cold suddenly. Three days like that and the prawns are

badly affected.


36/56


34

both a sustainable livelihoods programme and

disaster risk management.

apn n rng lm

rsln

National and local authorities in the Mekong

Delta are beginning to integrate climate resilient

policies into wider programmes o coastal zone

management. In some areas o the delta dykes

are being strengthened or heightened, man-

groves are being planted to improve protection

rom storm surges, and some homes are being

built on bamboo stilts. In some cases women

and children are learning to swim and lie jacketsare being issued.28

Even though collective building and mainte-

nance o sea dykes has now been replaced by

a tax or coastal protection, the inrastructure

or sea deences has improved in recent years.

However, poorer households lack the ability o

individual better-o amilies to cope with disas-

ters and absorb risks.29

Studies o rice arming in other areas o the Me-

kong Delta show that small-scale armers have

been adopting a series o measures in part to

adapt to climate risks.30 These measures are usu-

ally taken by individual armers rather than at the

community or national level, especially where

there is no community or provincial planning.

They include the construction and maintenance

o small-scale irrigation systems or embank-

ments to protect their armland rom oods, and

the use o alternative crops or rice seed varieties.

For example, they oten plant a shorter-cycle rice

seed variety in response to climate orecasts.

However, in Ben Tre creating climate resilience

seemed to be at a very early stage. With the help

o nancing rom the Global Environment Facility

(GEF), some initial steps are being taken to en-

hance the awareness o local communities and

improve their capacity to adapt to climate chang-

es.31 Dierent types o coconuts and ruit trees

more resistant to saline intrusion are being de-

veloped, and some dykes are being increased in

height. But its scope is at present limited: it has a

budget o just US$30,000, and directly or indirectly

involves about 2,000 members o one commune.

Local government ocials and scientists are

the rst to say there is a still a long way to go

in terms o increasing the limited awareness and

understanding o climate change impacts in

the province, improving the scientic data base

and climate modelling, and working with local

communities to understand the adaptation op-

tions. As one local Red Cross ocial expressed

it, Everyone here in Ben Tre needs to know more

about climate change the authorities, govern-

ment departments, the communes, the villages,

the NGOs and the media. This is not someone

elses problem in another part o the world. It is

ours and all o Viet Nams.

28 UNDP, Fighting climate change, pp. 165.29 Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, ibid, p. 6-7.30 Suppakorn Chinvanno et al, Climate risks and rice arming in the lower Mekong countries, AIACC Working Paper no. 40, 2006.31 The GEF programme is VN/05/009, unded by GTZ.


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Like many provinces, Quang Tri has enjoyed high

economic growth rates in recent years and the

number o poor people has declined signicant-

ly as a result, at an average rate o 2 per cent a

year.32 However, the poverty rate or the province

is still one o the highest in Viet Nam. Inant mor-

tality in 2006 or example was 36 per 1,000, the

ourth highest in the country, while lie expec-

tancy in 2004 was the sixth lowest at 66 years

o age.

The province is also environmentally ragile.

It is not just ooding and drought. A hot and

dry strong wind known as the Lao wind blows

through the province rom late April to mid Sep-

tember setting the temperature above 37 de-

gree Celcius some days. The wind dries up trees,

plants, ponds and lakes, increasing the risks o

re. Deorestation, saline intrusion and regular

typhoons compound the ragility.

Moreover, Quang Tri is unusual in having the

highest rate o ordnance and toxic chemicals let

over by the US military. The 17th parallel, which

divided Viet Nam between 1956 and 1975, runsthrough the province. Quang Tri was devastated

during the war. Forests were destroyed and toxic

chemicals which remain in the soil have let a

terrible legacy o illnesses which were still aect-

ing livelihoods in May 2008.

Hai Lang district is in the south-eastern part o

the province. Just over 100,000 people live there,

spread throughout 21 communes, more than

Qng tr - l f

The central coastal province o Quang Tri is one o the most vulnerable to ood-

ing in the whole o Viet Nam, and Hai Lang district is the most vulnerable within

the province. Villagers have a long history o working with local government and

mass organisations to cope with the ooding, reducing its impact and chang-

ing their production cycles to adapt to it. However, many o the poorer men and

women in the district are still very vulnerable to the extremes and vagaries o theweather which they say have become more pronounced in recent years.

32 Poverty Task Force, Quang Tri: Participatory Poverty Assessment 2003, Hanoi, January 2004, p. 3.


38/5636

Mp f Qng tr

Source: Cartographic Publishing House - Vietnam


39/56

QuaNg tri - living with floods

37

hal o which are below sea level. Poverty is

widespread at about 22 per cent o the popula-

tion. The district is a mixture o low land areas,

shing communities and upland or hill land ar-

eas. Nearly twenty household interviews were

carried out in three dierent villages to representthe dierent types o location: in Tram Son (up-

land) and Luong Dien (low land) both belong-

ing to the Hai Son commune, and in My Thuy

(coastal) o the Hai An commune.

The main economic activity o My Thuy is shing;

or Luong Dien it is paddy (wet rice cultivation)

and or Tram Son it is more diverse with some

paddy, more vegetable crops and orestry ac-

tivities. The changing climate has had dierent

impacts on the dierent communities, but the

message was clear: the ooding and storms

were coming at dierent times o the year and

were ar less easy to predict, and the dry season

(usually May to August) was getting hotter.

The lowland area is highly exposed to the ood-

ing during the heavy rain period (known as the

main oods), which takes place historically rom

August/September until November in this part

o Viet Nam. People are used to this type o

ooding, which is part o the production cycle

and has the positive consequence o provid-

ing sediment with high nutrient content. In the

1990s many amilies started to grow two crops

o rice per year, the rst one roughly rom Janu-

ary to early May, and the second rom early June

to early September beore the autumn storms

and oods.

However, the production cycle is very tight, andchanges in the arrival time o the rains or ex-

tended drought oten causes reduced output

or even no production at all. For those amilies

dependent on rice arming, the recent changes

in the rain patterns had caused extreme hard-

ship. Rain coming at the wrong time in the last

two to three years was the common complaint.

Many armers said twenty or thirty years ago, or

example, light early ood known as tieu man

came regularly in May-June. But in 2006, there

had been early ooding in February; in 2007 the

ooding came in April, and then again in April

in 2008.

For example, Ho Si Thuan and his wie Nguyen

Thi Theo rom the lowland village o Luong Dien

lost their spring rice crop in February this year

due to the cold period, replanted the rice seed-

lings but then lost the crop again when the sum-

mer rains came early in April. The local authori-

ties in Hai Lang say about 50-60 per cent o the

rice crop and other crops had been lost this year

in the whole o the district due to the cold spellollowed by the early tieu man. Moreover, both

they and local villagers say that last year during

The changing climate makes it dicult or fshermen to predict when it is sae to go to sea


40/56


38

W n knw why h whr s hngng

46-year-old Ho Si Thuan and his wie Nguyen Thi Theo live in the lowland village o Luong

Dien in the Hai Son commune. They have a rice paddy, but they also work a second rice paddy

or another amily and grow some vegetables. They have ve sons. All their sons can swim.

Thuan can swim, because he says that i you live in Luong Dien and dont know how to swim,you may die. Theo cannot swim as she says she is too scared to get into the water to learn.

The requency o the ooding is worse com-

pared to ten years ago. 1999 was the worst year,

but last year was pretty bad. In October we had

water up to our knees or our days. It used to

only ood twice a year, but now it is our times

a year. It is starting earlier in the year too.

Last year we made sure we harvested the rice

beore the main ooding season, but we lost

our cassava, sweet potatoes and beans.

It was so cold in February that we lost our rice

crop, then we planted again but it rained heav-

ily in April so we lost it again.

When the ooding comes, we put everything up on the platorm ood, things to cook with, even

the pigs and chicken we put in cages up there. Unortunately last year we lost the cage with the

chickens in it to the oods.

The children were very rightened especially as the wind and the rain were so strong. Someone rom

the rescue team came with a boat and took them to the school, which is stronger and made o

concrete.

We have training every year or the oods. The trainer is rom the commune. We take enough ood

or seven days. We know we have to prepare well or the oods. But we could do with more boats

and lie jackets. We cannot move rom the area because it is too expensive to buy land elsewhere.

We dont know why the weather is changing. We dont know why our arming is being so badly a-

ected. We are very worried about losing our home, about losing our crops, about going hungry.


41/56


39

the main ooding, there were six incidences o

ooding in the district compared to the usual

two or three.

Poor men and women in the upland village o

Tram Son were also badly aected by the chang-ing weather, even though most o them do not

rely on rice arming to the same extent as the

lowland communities. In their case, the unpre-

dictability o the weather, and in particular the

cold spell in February this year and the early ar-

rival o the oods, has devastated their garden

crops like peanuts, cassava or peppers. As they

live higher up, it is oten ash oods causing

landslides that are their main problem. The lead-

er o the Hai Son commune said the declining

productivity over the last three years had caused

the vast majority o upland villagers to rely more

on orestry activities. Some were even going

back to trying to nd scrap metal let over by the

Americans 30 years ago, even though they had

to walk several kilometres urther into the orest

and there was much less metal around.

58-year-old Le Thi Nay lives with her amily in the

upland village o Tram Son, which belongs to the

Hai Son commune. She has lived all her lie in the

village, and cannot remember worse weather

than in the last three years. Like many villagers,

she and her amily have had to resort to switch-

ing crops rom rice or seeking o-arm income in

order to compensate or the loss o income rom

agriculture caused by the vagaries and extremes

o the weather. Most o the villagers in Tram Son

are now relying on orestry activities, such as col-

lecting bundles o rewood, orest stewardship

schemes, making wooden brooms, or using met-al detectors to nd military hardware let over by

the Americans more than 30 years ago.

Twenty years ago, being a armer seemed extremely easy as the

weather was predictable it wasnt so hot in the dry season and

there was less ooding. Last year our frst crop rice was aected

by early ooding. We could only harvest about 200kgs, and it

was poor quality so we had to eed it to the pigs. This year, it wasvery cold and the rice seedlings died.

Part o the year we now plant sweet potatoes in the feld where

we were growing rice. There are several reasons or this: we can

eat hal o them and keep hal or the winter, and we can eed

the leaves to the pigs. Sweet potatoes can survive the dry season

better than rice but even they cannot survive severe ooding.

We have had a special wooden platorm in our house since

1990. About a third o the households in this village have a plat-

orm, but in the lower-lying villages, all o them have it. We makesure we have enough ood or ten days when the main ooding

season comes.

We are very concerned about the weather. We may even suer

hunger this year because we havent had a rice crop. So many

people in our village now go up to orest as rice arming is not

working. They go up to collect wood, or to try and fnd the scrap

metal or ordnance let by the

Americans during the war.

I havent been there or

several years, but theysay it is much more di-

fcult now to fnd any

metal. You can earn up

to 100,000 dong (US$6)

a day doing that, but it

can be very dangerous.

We dont have to go to the

orest as our sons work as la-

bourers, so we live o their

income.


42/56


40

The harrowing human impact o the unusual

weather on poor villagers in Tram Son cannot be

understated. 49-year-old Le Thi Huong was hav-

ing to deal both with the loss o her crops and

with the eect o the weather on her 12-year-

old daughter, who had inherited mental healthproblems rom her ather who had been aected

by the use o Agent Orange during the war. Her

daughter is very sensitive to the weather. When

the weather changes, she cries all night and cannot

sleep, Huong said.

49-year-old Mr. Nguyen Van Cung lost most o

his crops this year due to the weather and to

insects eating them. He says there are more in-

sects around because o the climate changing.He also lost his peanut crops as rst the cold

weather and early rains destroyed his winter/

spring crop, and then the early summer rains

ruined his second crop. We are supposed to be

harvesting the peanuts now, but there simply arent

any, he said.

The coastal commune o Hai An is particularly

sensitive to extremes o weather or unpredict-

able rainall and winds. About hal o the com-

munes income comes rom shing. Like many

communities in Quang Tri province, in recent

years poorer shermen using smaller boats have

been suering rom declining sh populations

near the coast.33 Villagers spoke o no longer

being able to predict the weather rom looking

at the sky and the tides. Typhoons in particular

were much more dicult to anticipate. Several

testimonies also spoke o the reduced number

o possible shing days over the last two years

because o the dramatic changes in the weather,

including higher waves and wind, unusual cold

spells and rainy periods. In particular, they raised

the recent stormy weather in March and April

which had caused severe hardship. Many ami-

lies had other part-time jobs or economic activi-

ties to all back on, but or some, going heavily

into debt was the only option.

33 Poverty Task Force, ibid, p. 18


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41

i m vry wrr b h whr hngng

39-year-old Vo Viet Gia lives with his wie and ve sons in the coastal village o My Thuy, Hai

An Commune. His main occupation is working as a shermans mate on a boat owned by

another villager. I the boat gets a good catch, he can earn between 50,000 and 70,000 dong

(US$3-US$4) a day. When they cannot go shing, he earns about 30,000 dong (US$2) a day asa labourer or porter.

I am very worried about the weather changing

in the last two years. My house is not very secure

so I may lose it when the wind gets so strong,

and I cannot go out fshing as much to earn an

income.

The wind is heavier on the sea, and there have

been more storms. Normally the storms start

in September or October, but recently we have

had storms in March and April. We have not

been able to go out fshing as much in the last

two years because o the weather.

The cold period this year was the worst I can

remember in my lie. We cant fsh when it is so

cold. I lost about 20 days work in April. My sons

could not bear the cold. We were given more

clothes by the community and our relatives, but

the clothes were oten too thin.

I had to work more as a porter and a labourer, and the income is less. Lie is dicult as my wie has

had TB or three years, although she has had treatment or the last eight months and is eeling bet-

ter. I have a kidney problem, and I have to pay or some o the treatment.

Normally we have to borrow money rom relatives to survive. I am in debt about 4 million dong

(US$250) at the moment.

We know about climate change and how it is caused by human activity. We have to have a greener

environment and plant more pine and indigo trees to stop erosion and protect us rom the wind.


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42

Detailed studies o how villagers in Quang Tri

have coped in the past with extreme weather

events, and in particular the devastating oods

in 1999, have shown that poorer men and wom-

en have much less capacity to recover and adapt

than better-resourced amilies.34 This is because

low-income amilies have:

worse housing, which oten gets more dam-w

aged in storms or ooding. They use more re-

sources to repair and strengthen their houses

as a proportion o their total resources.

greater vulnerability to diseases aectingw

their animals and lack adequate sanitation.

much less diversied household economyw

and are more dependent on rice production

in the lowlands or vegetables in the uplands.

more rom health problems, resulting in lackw

o household income rom o-arm labour,

high medical costs and indebtedness.

little access to credit so are oten orced tow

take inormal short-term loans with high

interest rates to secure emergency basic

needs.

The key point is that the diculties aced by

poor people are a result not just o the oods,

but o the multiple stresses linked to their house-

hold livelihood situation. This was clearly borne

out by the testimonies collected rom the three

villages as a result o the latest weather events.

Those with a diversied household economy,

o-arm work opportunities, larger boats and/or better health were much better able to nd

emergency income to cope and recover.

Women in the villages o Hai Lang were oten

hardest hit by the ooding. As with many other

climate-induced disasters in Asian countries,

more women than men died as a result o the

ooding. There a

Vietnam: Climate change, adaptation and poor people

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