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Video Challenged the Network Star -(Mobile Trends 2011 & Beyond)
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Transcript of Video Challenged the Network Star -(Mobile Trends 2011 & Beyond)
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Jeanine van der Vlist - Managing Director Alcatel-Lucent15 juni 2011 – Mobiel NL
Jeanine van der Vlist - Managing Director Alcatel-Lucent15 juni 2011 – Mobiel NL
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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WIRELESSBASE STATIONS
2007 2010
10 M users
289M users
11B apps downloaded
2007 2010
3.6 M
4.2 M
FIXED BROADBAND CONNECTIONS
2007 2010
340 M
521 M
SMARTPHONES AND TABLETS
ALWAYS ON, ALL THE TIME
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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AN HOUR IS A LONG TIME IN TELECOM
~ 590 terabytes of new storage
capacity shipped
53,425 new smartphonesactivated
81 base stations deployed
5400 new fixed broadband connections installed
2,842,466 applications downloaded
27 terabytes of traffic mobile consumed
Globally, IP traffic will increase by
~11 terabyteseach and
every hour
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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2011 AND BEYOND - TRENDS
Internet Of Things
Critical National Infrastructure
Cloud
Application And Content Value Chain
Wireless All Around
Customer Experience Transformation
Source: Bell Labs, Juniper Research, Stratecast, Strategy Analytics, ITU, IDC
Everything in the Cloud
World and Internet going mobile
Ever demanding customers
Content is king
Crucial to economic growth and security
Machine-to-machine opportunity
43% of all customer issues: 2 or more support calls
40% of businesses will buy ICT on the cloud in 2-5 yearsCloud will be a $148.8 market in 2014
From 10.9B app downloads in 2009 to 24.9B in 2011
M2M estimated at 62M machines/devices in 2010 grows to 2.1B in 2020
12 broadband expansion projects in Asia, several in Latin America, plus Europe and US
By 2014, 50% of mobile data traffic will be videoBetween 2012 and 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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New devices driving exponential increase in consumption
WNG analysis of device usage in operator network
10 BBs = 1 iPhone10 iPhones = 1 Datacard~2-3 iPhones = 1 iPad
• M2M device connections will grow from 62 million in 2010 to 2.1 billion devices (Analysys Mason)
• 30 times as many transactions between machines as humans in 2020 (Forrester Research)
M2M Usage in 2020
DEVICE AND OPPORTUNITY EXPLOSION
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0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Mbytes
Percenta
ge of Subs
All Devices
IPhone
Blackberry
Data card
Nexus One
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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REALITY CHALLENGES THE VIDEO STAR(S)
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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CATEGORY SPEED PLAYERS
MP3 1976
Internet search 1998
Storage and Compute 1994
Social media 2004
E-commerce 1998
Billing 1998
Video content 1997
Micro blogging 2007
IP Telephony 2003
Location-based services 2009
Professional social networking 2003
$717 Billion
= 90% of
NL GDP
EST MKT VALUE ($)
306 B
184 B
83 B
50 B
40 B
18 B
12 B
8 B
8 B
1 B
3 B
SPEED IDEAS
Apple
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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ACTIVITY AND REVENUE DICHOTOMY
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Trafficsplit
Revenuesplit
The wireless revenue challenge
Voice
Data
Global Traffic (Petabytes)
10,174
20,396
49,919
63,904
Revenue ($B)
1,585 1,677 1,777
’07 ’10 ’12 ’14
287 Megabytesper user/per day
e.g. AT&T mobile data volumes up 8,000% over four years
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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THE PROBLEM: REVENUE VERSUS NETWORK COST
The operator business model is increasingly unsustainable
A wireless operator makes 93,750,000 times as
much revenue per bit from SMS, than a wirelineoperator gets from
delivering a Netflix video
Source: Bell Labs Analysis
-- 13% CAGR13% CAGR
+ 52% CAGR
Service provider network model
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$/sub/m
onth
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Mb/data plan sub/m
onth
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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IS THE ANSWER GREATER BW EFFICIENCY?
2
4
-5 +5 +15
Peak Data Efficiency (bps/Hz)
Signal-to-Noise Ratio (dB)
WAN wireless technologies
Shannon-bound
Infeasible Region
EV-DO
802.16
HSDPA
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400
1
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10
SNR (dB)
Spectral efficiency (bits/s/Hz)
Distance = 500 km
Optical Transport
Shannon bound
Copper Access
100
180
1000 2000 3000
Downstream Rate (Mbps)
Line Length (meters)
4000
140
60
20
5 Crosstalkers
24 Crosstalkers
Shannon bound
1 Crosstalker
Need more spectrum, more ‘channels’ and more application-intelligence
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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WHAT’s NEXT?
Attainable bitrate
(Mb/s)
1 pair 2 pairs PhantomMode
Vectoring 4 pairs 4 pairs + PM + Vectoring
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100
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Phantom-on-Phantom
Phantom Mode 3-4
Line 4
Line 3
Phantom Mode 1-2
Line 2
Line 1
New Generation Wireline910 Mb/s
(4 pairs, 400m)
390 Mb/s (2 pairs, 400m)
Simpler, lighter... enabling cloud-like networks
Bell Labs new radio cube
9x the capacity
¼ cost/bit
50% TCO savings
Up to:
New Generation Wireless
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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THE FUTURE: MAKING ANTENNAS INVISIBLE
On a façade On a pole On a lamppost In a bus stop
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Customer satisfaction
Revenue/sub.
Network cost/sub.
ApplicationEnablementbusinessmodels
High-leverage network technologies
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER:A WIN-WIN-WIN PROPOSITION
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION