VICTORIAN Economic Su… · 5 2 Victorian Economic Summary V ictoria’s economy continues to be...

VICTORIAN Building and Construction

INDUSTRY OUTLOOKMarch 2018

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Disclaimer

This document is not legal advice. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility will be accepted for action taken in reliance upon information contained in this document.

C O N T E N T S

1 National Economic Outlook 2

2 Victorian Economic Summary 5

3 Prices in the Building and Construction Industry 7

4 Confidence 9

5 Population 10

6 Labour Market 11

7 Housing Affordability 13

8 Industry Outlook 14

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1 National Economic Outlook

There has been a lot said about Australia’s – and the global – low inflation environment. Domestically, the latter has challenged wages growth over the past couple of years. But

on the other hand it has kept the threat of interest rates at bay – good news for Australia and good news for Victoria.

More positive growth and easing inflation are a great combination for Australian businesses. As a result, national income growth – the total value of all new goods and services produced – surged over the past 12 months.

Growth in national income is generally a precursor to growth in wages, and coupled with very strong employment growth – of which the majority was in full-time jobs – the underlying drivers point to better news on the wages front in the near future.

CHART 1: Australian Annual GDP Growth

2.8%

2.7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

1997-98 2001-02 2005-06 2009-10 2013-14 2017-18

GDP Growth 10 Year Average

GDP Growth, (Seasonally Adj. %)

Source: ABS, Master Builders Australia

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1 National Economic Outlook

Elsewhere:

• The negatives from the big falls in mining investment have largely run their course and should not be as much of a drag on the economy going forward.

• The next construction boom is underway and is being under-written by a surge in major transport infrastructure projects. Investment in major transport infrastructure projects is expected to peak in 2019-20 and add around 1% to GDP in each year over the next three years.

Australia’s strategy of going from a mining boom, to a housing boom, and now to a transport infrastructure boom, to date at least, looks to be paying off. The latter has not come without costs and has relied somewhat heavily on (1) demand from China, and (2) low interest rates.

CHART 2: Australian Quarterly GDP Growth

0.7%

0.8%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

Dec 1997 Dec 1999 Dec 2001 Dec 2003 Dec 2005 Dec 2007 Dec 2009 Dec 2011 Dec 2013 Dec 2015 Dec 2017




4Source: Macromonitor

The next phase of growth is set to make a big contribution to pro-ductivity enhancing infrastructure improvements in our major cities. Underwritten by an unprecedented commitment from the States and the Federal Government, this pipeline of infrastructure investment is needed to improve the liveability of our major cities and support Australia’s high population growth.

CHART 3: Major Transport Infrastructure Projects - Australia

5

2 Victorian Economic Summary

Victoria’s economy continues to be lifted by a number of favourable settings on interest rates and the Australian dol-lar. Added to that is population growth which is well ahead

of the rest of the country. The demand settings couldn’t be much better for Victoria.

As a result, economic growth in Victoria in 2017-18 is expected to be almost a full percentage point higher than the national average (3.7% compared to 2.8%) and 0.6% higher than economic growth in NSW, estimated at 3.1%.

Population growth has added around 400 new people per day to Victoria in the last three years – with that rate accelerating over the past year. A number of these new arrivals have come from Perth as mining related construction work has dried up, while an increasing number of new international migrants are choosing Melbourne over Sydney, given the relatively lower living costs – particularly for housing.

Key positives include:

• Victoria’s large tertiary sector is a big source of international students and international migration.

• High population growth in Melbourne has supported a boom in new housing construction and is expected to keep residen-tial construction activity high compared to historical averages.

• Business investment is growing for the first time in a while and is showing up as a big lift in commercial construction activ-ity. Non-dwelling construction is up by 21.7% over the year to December 2017.

• Tourist numbers are very strong which is good news for the accommodation, retail, recreation and gaming sectors.

• Employment growth has been very strong – the highest rate of jobs growth of any state over the past 12 months.

• Victoria’s share of the national economy is growing and will likely continue to do so as long as population growth contin-ues to outperform the other states.

6


CHART 4: Victorian Annual GDP Growth

3.7%

2.3%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

1997-98 2001-02 2005-06 2009-10 2013-14 2017-18



CHART 5: Victorian Quarterly GDP Growth

4.3%

2.4%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-17




7

3 Prices in the Building and Construction Industry

The index for the cost of construction below (blue line) shows the growth in construction costs – measured by the cost of building products – has been moderate despite the boom in

new housing construction.

Consultations with Master Builders members identified emerg-ing shortages in some products. In Victoria, housing business members noted difficulty in sourcing timber products, tiles and cement, with prices rising as a result.

The costs of housing measured as growth in the Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index for housing rents, continues to grow at a faster rate than construction costs.

CHART 6: Australian Housing and Construction Costs

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


Cost of Construction (Products) Cost of Housing (Rents)

Index: 2011/12 = 100

Note: Using CPI and PPI data, average for eight capital cities Source: ABS, Master Builders Australia

8

In Victoria: • The cost of construction, measured as growth in the Australian

Bureau of Statistics Producer Price Index for housing construc-tion materials, has grown by 0.4% in the December quarter 2017, adding to growth of 3.1% over the year.

• The cost of housing, measured as growth in the Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer price Index for housing (rents), has grown by 0.5% in the December quarter 2017, adding to growth of 4.0% over the year.

Overall, housing costs continue to rise faster than the costs of con-struction, suggesting there is still some tightness in the market in terms of access to housing.

CHART 7: Victorian Housing and Construction Costs

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


Costs of Construction (Products) Cost of Housing (Rents)

Index: 2011/12 = 100

Note: Using CPI and PPI data for Melbourne Source: ABS, Master Builders Australia

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Source: Master Builders Australia, National Survey of Building and Construction

CHART 8: Confidence in the Building and Construction Industry, Australia (December 2017)

4 Confidence

Business confidence improved for the second quarter in a row. The December index is 61.5, up from 58.5 in the September quarter. Expectations are for ongoing strength in the resi-

dential construction sector as work on the books remains strong, particularly for residential builders in the detached housing and town housing sectors. But there is some emerging concern in the apartments sector so there is a chance that we will see a modera-tion in confidence going forward.

The December quarter index score for confidence in the building and construction industry is well over the national index for busi-ness confidence of 55.7.

61.5

40

45

50

55

60

65

Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Jun-16 Mar-17 Dec-17

neutral value

Posit

ive

Neg

ativ

e

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5 Population

Victoria is head and shoulders above the other states/terri-tories in terms of its population growth. It is the only state in the last 12 months to record population growth above

the national average of 1.6%. That is a hefty feat given Victoria only accounts for around 25% of the Australian population.

Population growth has added around 400 new arrivals per day to Victoria over the last three years. To keep pace, construction busi-nesses need to complete more than 150 new dwellings per day to provide the extra housing these new residents demand.

In the last 12 months Victoria’s population grew by over 145,000 people and has averaged 135,000 new people per year over the last five years. The latter is equivalent to adding another city the size of Geelong – Victoria’s second largest city – every two years.


CHART 9: States Population Growth

1.4%

2.1%

1.8%

0.9%

2.0%

0.5%

1.4%

1.8%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT

2014 2015 2016 2006-2016 Ave Growth (%)

Change in Population (yearly, 000')

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The chart below shows growth in the Australian labour market and Victoria’s share of employment.

6 Labour Market


24.0%

24.5%

25.0%

25.5%

26.0%

26.5%

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Total Employment Victorian Share of Employment

Victoria's share of EmploymentTotal Employment, Victoria (000')

CHART 10: Victoria’s Share of Total Employment

Key insights: • Employment growth in Victoria continues to outpace national employment growth, with

Victoria’s share of employment growing from 25.9% to 26.2% in the last 12 months.

• Total employment in Victoria was estimated at 3.2 million in 2017.

• Employment growth was higher than any other state – 3.5% in 2017 compared to the national average of 2.2%.

• Total employment in Victoria’s construction sector is estimated at 270,000 – around 8.5% of the Victorian workforce.

• Employment growth in the construction sector is expected to be positive over the next 12 months, supported by a surge in commercial construction activity and a number of major trans-port infrastructure projects underway.

• Unemployment is slightly above the national average – recorded at 5.5% in Victoria compared to 5.4% across the country. This is to be expected given Victoria’s very high population growth rate.

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CHART 11: Total Employment, Victoria

3,240

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400


Total Employment (000')

CHART 12: Unemployment and Wages, Victoria

5.5

129

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5


Uemployment rate Wage Price Index (WPI)

Unemployment Rate (%) Wage Price Index


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7 Housing Affordability


Housing affordability is an ongoing challenge in Victoria, particularly in some of the tighter housing markets in inner city Melbourne. The construction sector has responded by building an unprecedented number of new dwellings over the past four years.

The latest house price data from the ABS shows house prices grew by 10.2% in Melbourne over the year to December 2017 – a fall of around 3% on the previous quarter – and a good sign that new supply is beginning to meet demand.

Key insights:• House prices and rents have grown faster than average incomes since 2006, causing living

expenses to rise significantly, particularly for low income earners. House prices have grown by 1.4 times the growth in incomes in Melbourne in the last decade.

• Continued high house price growth showcases the need to ensure the supply of new housing keeps pace with demand.

• Very low vacancy rates, particularly in inner city locations, suggests there is still some way to go before new supply meets demand. Very high population growth means Victoria needs to add more than 150 new houses per day just to meet daily demand from the 400 new residents calling Victoria home each day.

CHART 13: House Prices, Rents and Wages, Victoria

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

Sep-2007 Sep-2008 Sep-2009 Sep-2010 Sep-2011 Sep-2012 Sep-2013 Sep-2014 Sep-2015 Sep-2016 Sep-2017

House prices Rents Wages

Index: Sep-2007 = 100

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8 Industry Outlook

CHART 14: Total Value of Work Done, Victoria

The construction sector has been amongst the strongest per-formers in Victoria in the past 12 months. The total value of work done is expected to top $48 billion in 2017-18, the

highest value of construction work ever recorded in Victoria in a single year and the highest in terms of a total contribution to the economy – accounting for around 12% of economic activity.

By sector in Victoria the value of work done in the year ending in September quarter 20171 was: • $22.9 billion in residential construction activity;

• $11.1 billion in non-residential construction activity; and

• $12.4 billion in engineering construction activity.

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Sep-2007 Sep-2009 Sep-2011 Sep-2013 Sep-2015 Sep-2017

Residential Non-residential Engineering

Value of work done, ($m), Rolling Annual


1 The most recent ABS data, cat, no. 8752.0, available at time of publication

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HousingAccording to the latest ABS data on building activity, the value of residential construction work completed for the September quar-ter 2017 was recorded at $5.7 billion in Victoria, representing a fall of 2.8% in the quarter. This included $2.8 billion for houses, $2.2 billion for units and apartments and $663 million for renova-tions, as shown in Chart 15 below.

However over the year to September 2017 the value of construc-tion activity in the housing sector recorded: • 5.1% growth for total residential building activity, owing to a

very strong period earlier in the year;

• 7.1% growth in the value of work on detached housing;

• 1.5% growth for units and apartments construction; and

• 8.5% growth in the value of renovation related construction activity.

CHART 15: Total Value of Work Done, Victoria

2803

2204

663

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500


Houses Units & Apartments Renovations

Value of work done, $m


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8 Industry Outlook, continued

TABLE 1: Residential Commencements by Sector, Victoria

In terms of the number of new residential dwellings built in the past few years, the table below shows the number of new dwelling commencements per year spilt into Houses and Other

Dwellings – which includes townhouses and apartments. It shows that the number of new dwellings being built has increased mark-edly, peaking in 2015-16 at close to 70,000 new homes and is expected to remain high in 2017-18.

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18Residential Building 59,113 50,568 50,794 51,521 64,946 68,672 64,442 60,055 %ch 7.6% -14.5% 0.4% 1.4% 26.1% 5.7% -6.2% -6.8% Houses 34,889 30,134 28,009 29,462 32,357 35,574 35,795 35,207 %ch -8.1% -13.6% -7.1% 5.2% 9.8% 9.9% 0.6% -1.6% Other Dwellings 24,224 20,434 22,785 22,059 32,589 33,098 28,647 24,847 %ch 42.7% -15.6% 11.5% -3.2% 47.7% 1.6% -13.4% -13.3%


Approvals of new dwellings continue at a steady pace with detached dwellings, and unit and apartment approvals both growing steadily in recent months. Despite some volatility in the approvals data – particularly for units and apartments – taking a longer view suggests there is still plenty of support for new resi-dential construction in 2018. By sector:• Total dwelling approvals in Victoria in the December quarter

2017 were recorded at 21,423;

• Detached housing approvals in the December quarter were recorded at 9,793, while units and apartments made up the remainder at 11,630; and

• Over the year to December 2017 total dwelling approvals in Victoria increased by 2.1%, as a result of a very strong finish to the year.

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CHART 16: Number of Residential Dwelling Approvals, Victoria

37,590

33,402

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018Houses Units and Apartments

Dwelling Approvals (000'), Rolling Annual

Dwelling commencements have also held steady. Commencements of units and apartments jumped by 48.4%, more than offsetting the decline recorded in the previous quarter. Detached hous-ing commencements recorded a moderate fall of 2.7% in the September quarter, but remain well above the decade average, and high enough to keep Victorian house builders busy for the next 12 months or so.

In total there were: • 9,071 new detached housing commencements in the

September quarter 2017; and

• 8,796 new apartment or townhouse commencements in the September quarter 2017.

CHART 17: Number of Residential Dwelling Approvals, Victoria

9071

8796

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Sep 2007 Sep 2009 Sep 2011 Sep 2013 Sep 2015 Sep 2017Houses Units & Apartments

Number of commencements (Seasonally Adj.)


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CHART 18: Value of Dwelling Finance, Australia

Total dwelling finance was recorded at $6.1 billion in the December quarter for the construction of new dwellings. Finance commit-ments for investment housing was recorded at $3.1 billion, while total financial commitments, including for repurchase and refi-nancing, totalled a little over $71 billion – growth of 7.5% on the previous quarter.

Chart 18 shows new housing finance over the year topped $40.5 billion, of which $25 billion was for owner occupiers and around $15 billion was for investment housing.

Importantly, Chart 18 shows that growth in the value of dwelling finance has been driven in the most part by owner occupiers, sup-porting an improvement in home ownership rates, and first home buyer activity, over the year.

25,662

14,811

40,504

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Dec-2007 Dec-2009 Dec-2011 Dec-2013 Dec-2015 Dec-2017

Owner Occupier Investor Total New Dwelling Finance

New Housing Finance, ($ millions) Rolling Annual


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The Victorian Government recently issued a set of initiatives aimed at improving housing affordability, including abolishing stamp duty for first home buyers for purchases below $600,000 and con-cessions for first home purchases valued between $600,000 and $750,000 on a sliding scale, effective 1 July 2017.

Coupled with low interest rates, and a healthy pipeline of new dwelling construction, the latter is supporting a surge in new finance commitments in Victoria.

In sum: • total dwellings financed were relatively flat in the last quarter

of 2017, up by 0.6% in the December quarter;

• a total of 49,143 new dwelling commitments were recorded in the December quarter 2017; and

• over the year, new dwelling commitments recorded growth of 5.3% and totalled 189,663 – equal to 520 new dwelling com-mitments per day.

16,112

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

Dec 2007 Dec 2009 Dec 2011 Dec 2013 Dec 2015 Dec 2017

Number of finance commitments, (Monthly)

CHART 19: Number of Dwellings Financed, Victoria

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CHART 20: Non-residential Value of Work Done, Victoria


Non-residentialChart 20 below shows the value of non-residential work done in Victoria. The value of non-residential construction activity in Victoria has spiked in the past year, with work done over the year to September 2017 recorded at over $40 billion for the first time since statistics have been collected. It was also the strongest 12 month period in terms of growth in non-residential construction since June 2008.

We note: • non-residential building approvals are up by almost a third in

the past year; and

• a very healthy pipeline of non-residential construction pro-jects are expected to support growth in non-residential con-struction for at least the next 12 months.

40.1

35.3

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.0

33.0

35.0

37.0

39.0

41.0

43.0

45.0


Non-Residential 10 Year Average

Value of Work Done, (Rolling Average, $Bn)

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Major projects in the accommodation and the entertainment and recreation sectors remain the standouts in terms of new additions to the project pipeline.

However, the largest projects underway, and the major drivers of construction activity are led by a number of mixed use commer-cial developments in Melbourne including the $2.5 billion Collins Square commercial towers, Lend Lease’s $1.5 billion Melbourne Quarter development and Grocon’s $1.2 billion development at the former Carlton Breweries site.

Company Project Cost IndustryUnder construction or committed

Kuok Group / Lang Walker “Collins Square” - 5 Commercial towers 2,500 Mixed useLend Lease Melbourne Quarter mixed-use development 1,500 Mixed useMAB Corporation Pty Ltd /Gibson Property Merrifield development 1,200 Finance, Property & Business servicesGrocon former Carlton and United Breweries site 1,200 Mixed useSalta Properties / Qube Logistics Lyndhurst (Dandenong South) and Altona inland ports 1,000 Transport & StorageBrookfield Multiplex 405 Bourke Street - 156m tower 800 Mixed useQIC Global Real Estate Collins Street Paris end development 800 Mixed useAustralia Post and Cbus Property New 39-storey Melbourne Police Headquarters 800 Mixed useQueensland Investment Corp Office and retail tower at 80 Collins Street 550 Finance, Property & Business servicesUni Melbourne / Carlton Connect Carlton Connect Initiative 425 Mixed useUnder consideration or possible

Paragon Premier Investment Fund Koo Wee Rup Airport 7,000 Transport & StorageJTX International Humex mixed use development 1,700 Mixed useMirvac Office tower at 477 Collins St, Melbourne 600 Finance, Property & Business servicesMonashHeart Victorian Heart Hospital - 195 beds 543 Community & Other servicesWestfield Extension of Westfield Doncaster Shopping Centre 500 TradeWestfield Holdings Ltd Westfield Knox shopping centre 450 TradeLeighton Properties Wesley Church on Lonsdale Street, Melbourne 450 Finance, Property & Business servicesMandarin Oriental Group Mandarin Oriental Melbourne 375 AccommodationSP Setia Berhad Group Shangri La Melbourne 375 AccommodationGrollo Property Group 34 level office tower at 710 Collins Street 375 Finance, Property & Business services

Source: Deloitte Access Economics, Investment Monitor

TABLE 2: Non-residential Projects, Victoria

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CHART 21: Engineering Value of Work Done, Victoria


EngineeringChart 21 below shows the value of engineering work done in Victoria. The value of work done in the engineering construction sector has risen by 4.4% over the year to September 2017, adding an extra $527 million in investment into the Victorian economy compared to the same period one year ago.

• The total value of engineering work in the September quar-ter 2017 was recorded at $3.2 billion, 19% above the value of engineering work recorded in the September quarter 2016.

• Over the year to September 2017 the total value of engineer-ing work done was recorded at $12.4 billion, driven by the ramp up of a number of major road and rail infrastructure projects.


12,471

10,135

5500

6500

7500

8500

9500

10500

11500

12500

13500


Engineering Work Done 10 Year Average

Engineering Work Done, ($ millions) Rolling Annual

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By sector in Victoria:• Transport construction was recorded at $1.3 billion in the

September quarter 2017 and $4.9 billion over the year to September 2017 – growth of 15%.

• Utilities construction was recorded at $1.4 billion in the September quarter and $5.4 billion over the year to September 2017 – growth of 4.1%, largely driven by the NBN rollout.

• Resources construction dipped to $115 million in the September quarter, with activity in the year falling to $709 million.

CHART 22: Engineering Value of Work Done by Sector, Victoria

4,945

5,439

709

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000


Transport Utilities Resources

Engineering Work Done, ($ millions) Rolling Annual


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As the table below shows, investment in major transport infra-structure projects is the major driver of Victoria’s project pipeline and a key source of economic activity. The combined value of road and rail projects either underway or in the pipeline is equivalent to around 10% of Victoria’s total expected economic output in 2017-18.

Company Project Cost IndustryUnder construction or committedVictorian Rail Track Melbourne Metro Rail Project 10,900 Transport & StorageVictorian Rail Track Cranbourne-Pakenham Rail Upgrade 1,600 Transport & StorageVic State Government Dandenong Rail Corridor 1,600 Transport & StoragePort of Melbourne Port of Melbourne redevelopment, Webb Dock 1,600 Transport & StorageTransurban Group CityLink upgrade 1,300 Transport & StorageVictorian Rail Track Metropolitan rail infrastructure renewal program 700 Transport & StorageVicRoads Western Highway Duplication - Ballarat to Stawell 659 Transport & StorageVictorian Rail Track Mernda rail extension project 597 Transport & StorageMelbourne Metro Rail Authority Ballarat Line Upgrade 518 Transport & StorageOverland Sun Farming and Island Green Power 3 solar farms in the Mildura and Swan Hill districts 500 Electricity, Gas & WaterUnder consideration or possibleVicRoads "North East Link" (Missing Link) 10,000 Transport & StorageTransurban Western Distributor project 5,500 Transport & StorageLatrobe Magnesium Magnesium plant 1,000 ManufacturingOrigin Energy Stockyard Hill Wind Farm 900 Electricity, Gas & WaterSantos Ltd Shaw River 1,500MW gasfired power station 880 Electricity, Gas & WaterVicRoads M80 Ring Roads upgrade 673 Transport & StorageTrustpower Wind farm near Dundonnell 650 Electricity, Gas & WaterAGL Ltd Tarrone Power Station 600 Electricity, Gas & WaterAustralian Energy Company / Latrobe Fertilisers Urea Plant (Stage 1), Latrobe Valley 550 ManufacturingAstron Industries Pty Ltd Donald mineral sands project 518 Mining

Source: Deloitte Access Economics, Investment Monitor

TABLE 3: Engineering Projects, Victoria

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Master Builders Association of Victoria 332 Albert Street

EAST MELBOURNE VIC 3002Tel: (03) 9411 4555

Email: [email protected]

VICTORIAN Economic Su… · 5 2 Victorian Economic Summary V ictoria’s economy continues to be...

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