Veronique Pilet. Презентация в рамках Всемирного молочного...
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Transcript of Veronique Pilet. Презентация в рамках Всемирного молочного...
World Dairy Situationand
Global Marketing Trends
Véronique Pilet & Noëlle Paolo
CNIEL
Dairy in the World: Present and Future – 17th October 2016
2
The World Dairy Situation bulletin
Special thanks to:• IDF Head Office• ZuivelNL• CNIEL• All IDF National Committees
and other national contributors
3
The World Dairy Situation bulletin2015: a challenging year• Imbalance in supply and demand• 2% increase in milk production & dairy output• Relative stability in trade• Plunging dairy product and farmgate milk prices• Apparent per capita consumption 111.3 kg2016 and beyond• More modest supply growth• Upturn in dairy prices
4
Milk production
0 200 400 600 800 1.000
2005
2010
2013
2014
2015
Cow milk Buffalo milk Other milk
mln tonnes
Asia 29%
EU 2824%
North and Central America
18%
South America
10%
Other Europe
9%
Africa 5%
Oceania 5%
+ 2.0%
5
Cow’s milk delivery
< -1%
-1% to +1%
+1% to +3%
> +3%
Cow’s milk delivery growth in 2015
6
Dairy product outputButter/-oil Cheese
SMP WMP
9,2 9,6 10,0 10,2 10,6 10,8
6
7
8
9
10
11
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
mln tonnes
+4.6%+3.7% +2.1% +3.5%
+2.1%
18,1 18,3 18,7 18,8 19,4 19,9
16
17
18
19
20
21
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
mln tonnes
+1.2% +2.2% +0.7%+2.8%
+2.8%
3,7 3,9 4,1 4,24,8 4,8
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
mln tonnes
+7.5%+5.0% +0.8%
+15.8% +0.0%
4,2 4,6 4,7 4,8 5,1 5,1
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
mln tonnes
+9.2% +2.6% +1.8% +7.0% -1.4%
7
Dairy industry
① Company CountryDairy turnover
2015 in bln USD
Growth
’14-’15
1 Lactalis FR 18.9 -14%
2 Nestlé CH 15.2 -17%
3 Fonterra NZ 14.3 -24%
4 DFA US 13.8 -23%
5 Danone FR 12.3 -17%
6 FrieslandCampina NL 12.2 -19%
7 Arla Foods DK 11.4 -19%
8 Yili CN 9.6 +8%
9 Saputo CA 8.6 -8%
10 Dean Foods US 8.1 -15%
11 Mengniu CN 7.8 -4%
12 Meiji Dairies JP 5.9 -5%
13 Müller DE 5.6 -
② Company CountryDairy turnover
2015 in bln USD
Growth
’14-’15
14 Sodiaal FR 5.5 -23%
15 DMK DE 5.1 -28%
16 Morinaga Milk Industry JP 5.0 -8%
17 Schreiber US 5.0 -
18 Savencia FR 4.9 -20%
19 Agropur CA 4.6 +9%
20 Megmilk Snow Brand JP 4.3 +0%
21 Glanbia Plc IE 4.1 -13%
22 Kraft Heinz US 4.1 -
23 Land O'Lakes US 4.0 -22%
24 General Mills US 3.7 -0%
25 GCMMF Amul IN 3.6 +6%
8
Trade
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
EU 28 New Zealand USA
Australia Argentina
mln tonnes
0,0
0,6
1,2
1,8
2,4
3,0
Butter/-oil Cheese SMP WMP
2005 2010 2014 2015
mln tonnes
World dairy trade: 9% of global production
9
Trade: cheese export flows
+10%
-20%
-39%
-3%
+24%
+60%
+49%+2%
+23%
+26%
+19%
+145%
+31%
-4%
Switzerland
China
Mexico
Saudi
Arabia
Japan
Philippines
South
Korea
Russian
Federation
+10%
-5%
USA
Australia
EU
New Zealand
Top 5 export flows per exporter exceeding 10 000 tonnes. 2014/15 growth in %
10
Trade: butter/oil export flows
USA
EU
New Zealand
Russian
Federation
China
Saudi
Arabia
-51%
+161% +29%
Turkey+73%
+16%
Philippines
Mexico
+130%
-21%
-2%
Egypt
Top 5 export flows per exporter exceeding 10 000 tonnes. 2014/15 growth in %
11
Trade: SMP export flows
USA
EU
New Zealand
+24%
-26%
Indonesia
+1%
-18%
-9%
-38%
-4%
China
MexicoAlgeria
Egypt
VietnamMalaysia
Philippines
Russian
Federation
Thailand
-22%+77%
+7%
+6%
+25%
+152%
-6%
+26%
+13%
+22%
+35%
+28%
Singapore
+22%
Australia
Top 5 export flows per exporter exceeding 10 000 tonnes. 2014/15 growth in %
12
Dairy pricesButter SMP
WMP CheddarFOB OceaniaFOB Western Europe
Source USDA. 13
Dairy consumption
Informal46%
Fresh milk and dairy products
17%
Butter15%
Cheese13%
WMP4%
SMP3%
Other2%
7.3 billion inhabitants
111.3 kg/capita/year
101,5
106,1108,4
110,6 111,3
6.400
6.600
6.800
7.000
7.200
7.400
90
95
100
105
110
115
2005 2010 2013 2014 2015
Per capita consumption World population
mln inhabitants
k
kg
14
Global Marketing Trends
15
Global Marketing Trends : 27 countries
16
Overall growth in the past 5 years
17
Past food market trends
12 countries14 countries15 countries 19 countries
18
Past dairy market trends
19
Stable
1% to 5% increase
5% to 10% increase
More than 10% increase
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
Legend
Dairy market drivers
1 2
Nearly 16 000 new dairy products
launchedworldwide in 2015
23 countries 17 countries
All dairy products excluding milk on same trend
NB : changes in volumeNumber of countries 21
Past liquid milk market trends
NB : changes in volume 22
Stable
1% to 5% increase
5% to 10% increase
More than 10% increase
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
Legend
Drivers BarriersLiquid MILK
10 countries
23
Cheese YoghurtPast trends
NB : changes in volume 24
Stable
1% to 5% increase
5% to 10% increase
More than 10% increase
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
Legend
Drivers
Yoghurt
6000
4500
Cheese
25
Return to gracefor fatty acids
Past butter market trends
NB: changes in volume 26
Stable
1% to 5% increase
5% to 10% increase
More than 10% increase
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
Legend
Anticiped trends for the coming 10 years
27
Dairy market : very positive future trends
19 countries
21 countries
PAST FUTURE
NB: changes in value 28
Stable
1% to 5% increase
5% to 10% increase
More than 10% increase
1% to 5% decline
5% to 10% decline
More than 10% decline
Legend
Some worrying signals :Anti-dairy movements
NO
YES
Legend
29
Some worrying signals :Anti-dairy-farming debate
NO
YES
Legend
30
Challenges for the future
31
InnovationCommunicationAccessibilityImageSustainabilityReputation
32