VC M&E Module 2 - Develop or Review Your Causal Model

VALUE CHAIN MONITORING AND EVALUATION GUIDE

MODULE 2

Developing, Reviewing and Refining Your

Causal Model

April 12, 2023

2

GETTING STARTED

OBJECTIVE OF MODULE 2• Help the project designers or implementation team to

illustrate the causal pathways that link your planned interventions to your end goal.

• This module will help you to prioritize indicators, measurement tools and analysis processes in the steps ahead.

April 12, 2023

3

GETTING STARTEDOVERVIEW

• A causal model - also often called a theory of change, results chain, causal chain or logic model - is a tool that consolidates: • The overall project goal and purpose;• The linkages between project interventions and the

effects these are expected to yield in support of the goal and purpose;

• The assumptions being made about how these linkages work and will play out in practice.

• Causal model vs. Logframe

April 12, 2023

4

GETTING STARTEDOVERVIEW

Causal models serve four core purposes:

-During project design, causal models: • Establish a clear vision of how the objectives will be achieved by

summarizing the causal flow between interventions and effects as well as the assumptions that are being made.

• Provide the design team with a simple way of re-assessing and finalizing the project design.

-Once a project is funded, causal models: • Serve as the basis for the project monitoring and evaluation

system. • Help to improve performance by providing a touchstone for regular

reflection among the implementers.

April 12, 2023

5

DOCUMENTS

• Goal and Purpose

Statements

• Master Problem Tree

• Sustainable Solutions

Table

• Interventions Table

• Risk Manager

MATERIALS / INPUTS RECOMMENDED

PEOPLE

• Field Staff

• Project Manager

• Program Managers

• Key Partner Staff

• Possibly Partners

***IF YOU ALREADY HAVE A CAUSAL MODEL, SKIP TO STEP 3.***

April 12, 2023

6

STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE

1

•STRUCTURE YOUR CAUSAL MODEL

2

•DRAW YOUR CAUSAL MODEL

3

•VERIFY CAUSAL PATHWAYS AND FINALIZE CAUSAL MODEL

4

•DOCUMENT YOUR WORK

April 12, 2023

7

STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE: STEP 1Causal Models are

deliberately flexible in order to accommodate a wide range of potential projects and interventions. The model establishes 4 domains of impact:

Household Domain

Enterprise Domain

Sector Domain

Women’s Empowerme

nt and Gender Equity

Domain

OUTCOME LEVEL

IMPACT\ LEVEL

April 12, 2023

8

STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE: STEP 1

From bottom to the top, your causal model should be designed to present the following information:

Underlying assumptionsInterventionsOutputsLeading outcomesLagging outcomesImpacts

April 12, 2023

9


In developing causal models, teams should focus on ensuring the model is detailed, logical and realistic and that the final product provides a clear summary of the project’s intent and expectations for change.

TIPS FOR STEP 1

April 12, 2023

10

STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE

1

•STRUCTURE YOUR CAUSAL MODEL

2

•DRAW YOUR CAUSAL MODEL

3

•VERIFY CAUSAL PATHWAYS AND FINALIZE CAUSAL MODEL

4

•DOCUMENT YOUR WORK

April 12, 2023

11


Purpose and Goal Statements

Assumption

Intervention

Outcome

Assumption

Intervention

Outcome

April 12, 2023

12


COMPLETING STEP 2To actually draw your causal model, using flip chart paper and index cards or post-it notes is typically a good approach as you will likely make many changes. Once you’ve figured out the format any of the following programs can be used to create a formal design:

April 12, 2023

13

STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE: STEP 2 FINAL

PRODUCT

April 12, 2023

14

STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE

1 •STRUCTURE YOUR CAUSAL MODEL

2 •DRAW YOUR CAUSAL MODEL

3 •VERIFY CAUSAL PATHWAYS AND FINALIZE CAUSAL MODEL

4 •DOCUMENT YOUR WORK

April 12, 2023

15

At this stage, take a step back and review the causal model as a whole.


April 12, 2023

16


Verifying Your ModelReengage with clients that have fed into the project design process.

Engage potential project participants in your design process.

April 12, 2023

17

STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE

1 •STRUCTURE YOUR CAUSAL MODEL

2 •DRAW YOUR CAUSAL MODEL

3 •VERIFY CAUSAL PATHWAYS AND FINALIZE CAUSAL MODEL

4 •DOCUMENT YOUR WORK

April 12, 2023

18

Finalize and Develop a

Formal Version of Your Causal

Model


April 12, 2023

19

STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE: STEP 4 IMPACTS

Lagging

Outcomes

Leading

Outcomes

Outputs

Interventions

Purpose

Achievement

Goal

Achievement

Cross Cutting/Gender Equity/ Women’s Empowerment Outcomes Direct Enterprise-Level Outcomes Indirect Sector-Level Outcomes

April 12, 2023

20

COMMON PITFALLS

Allowing important issues or anticipated results to ‘fall off’ the model.

Being inflexible or forcing teams to adopt any particular model will undermine this exercise.

April 12, 2023

21

TEMPLATES AND SUPPORTING MATERIALS

Ultimate Impact End Outcome

s

Intermediate Outcomes

Outputs Interventions

Needs-based Higher Consequence Specific Problem

Cause Solution Process Inputs

CARE terminology

Program Impact Project Impact

Effects Outputs Activities

Inputs

CARE logframe Program Goal Project Final Goal

Intermediate Objectives

Outputs Activities Inputs

MEDA logframe Goal / Impact Project Purpose / Outcomes Outputs Resources (inputs / activities)

PC/LogFrame Goal Purpose Outputs ActivitiesUSAID Results Framework

Strategic Objective Intermediate Results Outputs Activities Inputs

USAID Logframe Final Goal

Strategic Goal/ Objective

Intermediate results

Activities 202E

DANIDA + DfID Goal Purpose Outputs ActivitiesCIDA + GTZ Overall goal Project purpose Results/outputs Activities InputsEuropean Union Overall Objective Project

Purpose

Results Activities

FAO + UNDP + NORAD

Development Objective Immediate Objectives


UNHCR Sector Objective Goal Project Objective Outputs Activities Input/Resources

World Bank Long-term Objectives Short-term Objectives

Outputs Inputs

AusAID Scheme Goal Major Development Objectives


Value Chain Causal Model

Goal Lagging Outcomes

Leading Outcomes

Outputs Interventions

COMPARISONS BETWEEN TERMINOLOGIES OF DIFFERENT DONOR AGENCIES for RESULTS / LOGICAL FRAMEWORKS

April 12, 2023

22

QUESTIONS?

COMMENTS?

April 12, 2023

23

Multiple ways to continue the discussion and continue learning:• Initiate a monthly session on the M&E guide

and case studies from across CARE. Contact [email protected]

• Join the Market Engagement Community of Practice on LinkedIn.

• Join a task force to review and refine the universal indicators. Contact [email protected]

Want to Learn More?

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

VC M&E Module 2 - Develop or Review Your Causal Model

Business

Transcript of VC M&E Module 2 - Develop or Review Your Causal Model