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Varieties of Capitalism and Welfare States Policy and ... · Traditional VoC analysis based on...
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WELFARE, WEALTH AND WORK – A NEW GROWTH PATH FOR EUROPE A European research consortium is working on the analytical foundations for a new socio-ecological growth model Varieties of Capitalism and Welfare States – Policy and Performance Markus Ahlborn (Ms Uni Göttingen; Intern IfW), Rainer Schweickert (IfW) Presented at MET Seminar @ Aston – 25 th February 2013
Transcript of Varieties of Capitalism and Welfare States Policy and ... · Traditional VoC analysis based on...
WELFARE, WEALTH AND WORK – A NEW GROWTH PATH FOR EUROPE
A European research consortium is working on the analytical
foundations for a new socio-ecological growth model
Varieties of Capitalism and Welfare States – Policy and
Performance
Markus Ahlborn (Ms Uni Göttingen; Intern IfW), Rainer Schweickert (IfW)
Presented at MET Seminar @ Aston – 25th February 2013
2| Area 1 Workshop, January 25th, 2013
Research questions for comparative country study:
• Which variety of capitalism (VoC) evolved in CEECs?
• How do this systems correspond to worlds of welfare states (WWS)?
• Do capitalist systems in CEECs converge towards standard prototypes in
VoC or WWS literature?
• Lessons from transition success or failure?
Literature on CEECs has clear results for Estonia (LME) and Slovenia
(CME)
Interesting cases of Slovakia (from late comer to star performer?) and
Hungary (from pole position to multiple-crises country?)
Design of comparative country study:
• Macro cluster analysis of government policy and economic performance
• Slovak study focuses on macro context and quantitative analysis
• Hungarian study focuses on welfare system and qualitative analysis
Background of WWWforEurope project
3| Area 1 Workshop, January 25th, 2013
Traditional VoC analysis based on micro variables:
• Inter-firm relations, corporate governance, vocational training and
education, industrial relations
Neglects role of government (welfare state, regulation [>=WWS]) and
macro economic target system (income, equality, stability)
Micro and macro aspects of mode of governance represented by
government actitiv (overall, transfer, regulation = Economic Freedom
of the World [Frazer Institute])
Target system represented by innovation (World Bank Knowledge
Assessment), income distribution (Gini), public debt (%of GDP)
“Macro”-Cluster analysis…
• six indicators on policy and performance
• History of phases of transition (1995=initial, 00-03, 04-06, 07-09=start)
• analysis of principal components
Concept for Cluster Analysis
4| Area 1 Workshop, January 25th, 2013
Cluster Analysis – 2007-09
MME Continental Nordic CEEC CME CEEC LME Liberal
5| Area 1 Workshop, January 25th, 2013
Results of Cluster Analysis
07-09 04-06 00-03 95
Australia Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal
Canada Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal
Ireland Liberal Liberal Continental Liberal
New Zealand Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal
Switzerland Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal
UK Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal
USA Liberal Liberal Liberal Liberal
Japan Outlier 1 Outlier 1 Outlier 1 Outlier
Austria Continental Conti/MEEC Continental Conti/Nordic
Belgium Continental Conti/MEEC Continental MME 2
France Continental Conti/MEEC Continental Conti/Nordic
Germany Continental Conti/MEEC Continental Conti/Nordic
Netherlands Continental Nordic Continental Conti/Nordic
Denmark Nordic Nordic Nordic Conti/Nordic
Finland Nordic Nordic Nordic Conti/Nordic
Norway Nordic Conti/MEEC Nordic Conti/Nordic
Sweden Nordic Nordic Nordic Conti/Nordic
Czech Republic CEEC CME Conti/MEEC CEEC CME CEEC CME
Slovenia CEEC CME Conti/MEEC CEEC CME CEEC CME
Croatia CEEC CME Conti/MEEC MEEC LME
Hungary CEEC CME Conti/MEEC Nordic Conti/Nordic
Poland CEEC CME MME CEEC CME CEEC CME
Slovakia CEEC LME CEEC LME CEEC CME CEEC CME
Estonia CEEC LME CEEC LME Baltics/ESP/PT CEEC LME
Latvia CEEC LME CEEC LME Baltics/ESP/PT CEEC LME
Lithuania CEEC LME CEEC LME Baltics/ESP/PT CEEC LME
Romania CEEC LME CEEC LME CEEC LME CEEC LME
Bulgaria CEEC LME CEEC LME CEEC LME MME
Greece MME MME MME MME
Italy MME MME MME MME2
Portugal MME MME Baltics/ESP/PT MME
Spain MEEC CME MME Baltics/ESP/PT MME
Turkey Outlier 2 Outlier 2 Outlier 2
6| Area 1 Workshop, January 25th, 2013
Results of Cluster Analysis
Further Clusters: 2007 – 2009
CEEC LME + Turkey
Continental + Nordic
MME + CEEC CME
Liberal + Japan
Conti/Nordic + MME/CEEC CME
Liberal + CEEC LME
Last 2 Clusters
Continental/Nordic/
MME/CEEC CME
CEEC LME/Liberal
Further Clusters: 2004 - 2006
Conti/CEEC CME + Nordic
CEEC LME + Turkey
MME + Japan
MME + CEEC LME
Liberal + MME/CEEC LME
Last 2 Clusters
Conti/CEEC CME/Nordic EEC2/MME/Liberal
Further Clusters: 2000 - 2003
Continental + Nordic
MME + Japan
CEEC CME + CEEC LME
Baltics/ESP/PT + Turkey
Baltics/ESP/PT + CEEC LME/CME
Baltics/ESP/PT/CEEC + MME
Continental/Nordic + CEEC/MME
Last 2 Clusters
Continental/Nordic/
CEEC/MME
Liberal
Further Clusters: 1995
Conti/Nordic + Japan
MME2 + MME
Continental /Nordic + CEEC CME
Liberal + MME
Liberal/MME + CEEC LME
Last 2 Clusters
Continental/Nordic/
CEEC CME
Liberal/MME/CEEC LME
7| Area 1 Workshop, January 25th, 2013
Results of Cluster Analysis
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
CEEC CME
CEEC LME
MME
Continental
Nordic
Liberal
Clusteranalysis 2007-2009: Cluster-Averages
Innovation
Equality of Distribution
Fiscal Debt
Regulation
Government Size
Transfers/ Subsidies
8| Area 1 Workshop, January 25th, 2013
Results of Cluster Analysis
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Bulgaria
Romania
Slovakia
Latvia
Lithuania
Estonia
Croatia
Poland
Hungary
Czech Rep
Slovenia
Clusteranalysis: Values of CEEC
Innovation
Equality of Distribution
Fiscal Debt
Regulation
Government Size
Transfers/ Subsidies
9| Area 1 Workshop, January 25th, 2013
Results of Principal Component Analysis
PC Share of Explained Variance
1 0.37
2 0.63
3 0.81
4 0.91
5 0.96
6 1
PC1 PC2 PC3
Transfers/Subsidies -0.80 -0.43 0.07
Government Size -0.82 -0.17 0.28
Regulation -0.03 -0.93 -0.21
Fiscal Debt -0.29 -0.004 -0.93
Equality of Income
Distribution -0.71 0.19 0.18
Innovation -0.59 0.65 -0.24
10| Area 1 Workshop, January 25th, 2013
Results of Principal Component Analysis
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
PC
2: L
ow
Reg
ula
tio
n /
Hig
h In
no
vati
on
PC 1: Low Spending / Low Equality
Continental
Nordic
CEEC CME
MME
CEEC LME
Liberal
NZL
FR
AT
BE NW SWE
FL
DK
IE
UK
CAN CH
USA
AUS
NL
PL
CRO SVN
CZ
HUN
PT GRE
IT GER
ESP
LIT
BUL
EST
SVK
LAT
ROM
11| Area 1 Workshop, January 25th, 2013
Allowing for heterogeneity of clusters, CEECs still form separate
clusters. The two CEEC-clusters fit to the overall distinction between
LME and CME
Three poles of “attraction”: Nordic, Liberal, MME
How to consider informal government activity, i.e. state or business
capture?
Quo vadis CEECs?
• Convergence or new model?
• Development problems vs. inconsistencies?
Results and Questions
WELFARE, WEALTH AND WORK – A NEW GROWTH PATH FOR EUROPE
A European research consortium is working on the analytical
foundations for a new socio-ecological growth model
Varieties of Capitalism and Welfare States – Policy and
Performance
Markus Ahlborn (Ms Uni Göttingen; Intern IfW), Rainer Schweickert (IfW)
Presented at MET Seminar @ Aston – 25th February 2013
13| Area 1 Workshop, January 25th, 2013
MME 1 MME 2 Liberal CEEC LME CEEC 95 Continental Nordic/CEEC
1 2
Results of Cluster Analysis
Dendogram 2: Panel Approach
14| Area 1 Workshop, January 25th, 2013
Results of Cluster Analysis
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Liberal
CEEC LME
MME 1
CEEC95 1
CEEC95 2
MME 2
Nordic/CEEC
Continental
Panel-Approach: Cluster-Averages
Innovation
Equality of Distribution
Fiscal Debt
Regulation
Government Size
Transfers/ Subsidies
