Variability of UV -vis -IR solar irradiance from GOME and ...
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1 1 background image from spacecenter.dk Variability of UV Variability of UV - - vis vis - - IR solar irradiance from IR solar irradiance from GOME and SCIAMACHY for use in GCMs GOME and SCIAMACHY for use in GCMs J. Pagaran , M. Weber, K. Bramstedt, J. Burrows IUP, Bremen, Germany N. Krivova, and S. Solanki MPI Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany L. Floyd NRL, USA SVECSE 1-6 June 2008
Transcript of Variability of UV -vis -IR solar irradiance from GOME and ...
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Variability of UVVariability of UV --visvis --IR solar irradiance from IR solar irradiance from GOME and SCIAMACHY for use in GCMsGOME and SCIAMACHY for use in GCMs
J. Pagaran , M. Weber, K. Bramstedt, J. BurrowsIUP, Bremen, Germany
N. Krivova, and S. SolankiMPI Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany
L. FloydNRL, USA
SVECSE
1-6 June 2008
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Outline
• Solar data from GOME and SCIAMACHY
• Modeling observed solar variability
• Validate model with other solar data
• Radiation intervals for GCMs
• Summary and Recommendation
GCM(wavelength dependent)
(input)SSI
11-yr cycle
Problem: No direct 11-year SSI measurements
How to increase sensitivity of climate to 11-yr solar cycle variability?
[email protected] Observed solar variability from GOME and SCIA for GCMs
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total heating rateschem. species
Haigh, 2007 London, 1980
O3 absorption bands243 – 278 nm Hartley band (Ha)278 – 363 nm Huggins bands (H)407 – 683 nm Chappuis band (C)
O2 absorption bands125 – 205 nm Schumann-Runge
(SRB/SRC)205 – 243 nm Herzberg contin (Hz)
Objective:
Estimate the best realistic TOA incoming radiation at
(1) solar min and (2) solar max conditions --- 11-ye ar spectral dependence
Radiative heating by O2 and O3 absorption
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Simple irradiance model
SSI: UV-vis-IRTSIsolar
constant
)(Pol)()()()(
),(
),(
PSIII Mg ttPbtPa
tI
tI
++++⋅⋅⋅⋅++++⋅⋅⋅⋅====∆∆∆∆
44444 344444 21λλλλ
λλλλλλλλλλλλ
GOME solar data
240-785 nm
1998-2000
SCIA solar data
240-1700 nm
2003-2004
choose best measurements
* when instrument is stable
* during least degradation
* during active sun periods
* of longer timeseries
anomaly term
)(Pol)()()()(
),(
PSII Mg ttPbtPa
tI
++++⋅⋅⋅⋅++++⋅⋅⋅⋅==== λλλλλλλλλλλλ
Mg II ctw from Viereck et al. (2004)
PSI from Balmaceda et al. (2007)
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Polynomial term
SSI: UV-vis-IRTSIsolar
constant
)(Pol)()()()(
),(
PSII Mg ttPbtPa
tI
++++⋅⋅⋅⋅++++⋅⋅⋅⋅==== λλλλλλλλλλλλ
Polynomial term
( polynomial degree kept minimum )
� slowly varying background
� instrument degradation
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Most desired objects: a( λλλλ) and b( λλλλ)
SSI: UV-vis-IRTSIsolar
constant
linear regression
a(λλλλ) b(λλλλ)linearly scale 27-day SSI variability
to 11-year decadal changes
)(Pol)()()()(
),(
PSIII Mg ttPbtPa
tI
++++⋅⋅⋅⋅++++⋅⋅⋅⋅==== λλλλλλλλλλλλ
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Step-by-step illustration
(1) Take all data(2) Remove anomalies(3) Remove outliers(4) Fit low deg polynomials
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Modeling: step-by-step illustration
UV parametrization @ 310- 320 nm
)(PolRes),(
,)(Pol
),(Ratio datadata
ttI
ttI −−−−====
λλλλλλλλ
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Derived regression parameters
after parametrizing all 143 10-nm intervals
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Reconstruction of daily irradiances
reconstruct
daily variability
b(λλλλ)a(λλλλ)
),(),(),( ref jj tItItI λλλλλλλλλλλλ ∆∆∆∆++++====
[[[[ ]]]](((( ))))[[[[ ]]]]j
jj
tPtPb
tPtPatI
PSIrefPSI
II MgrefII Mg
)( )(
)()()(),(
where
−−−−⋅⋅⋅⋅++++
−−−−⋅⋅⋅⋅====∆∆∆∆
λλλλλλλλλλλλ
era satellite 2004, Mar 4th ref ∈∈∈∈==== jtt
SCIA ref spectrum
faculae + sunspot
contribution
extrapolate 11-year
variabilityIf tj = solar min (3yrs ave), then I(λλλλ,tsol min ) = Imin (λλλλ)
If tj = solar max (3yrs ave), then I(λλλλ,tsol max ) = Imax(λλλλ)
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Reconstruction of daily spectra (1978-2007)
11-yr SSI variability
from 240 to 1680 nm
1212time slice: from 26 May 2003 to 22 Jun 2003
Validation: spectral aspect
4th May 2004
contemporary:
during time domain where parameters
are derived
28th July 2005
near future:
outside time domain where parameters
are derived
4th March 1994
distant past:
outside time domain where parameters
are derived
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Validation: temporal aspect
at visible: 515 nm
Fontenla et al, 2004
Fontenla et al, 1999
Fontenla et al, 1999this work
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Validation: temporal aspect
fig from Fröhlich
2003-2006
recon TSI correlation with TIM
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Validation: temporal aspect
daily TSI values
b(λλλλ)a(λλλλ) λλλλλλλλ dtI jj ),(TSInm 1670
nm 240∫∫∫∫====era satellite ∈∈∈∈jt
TSI record Mean value(W m-2)
Standard deviation (W m-2)
Correlation with TIM
(2003-2006)
Slope per year
(W m-2)
TIM 1360.98 0.579 1. – 0.182
PMOD 1365.76 0.573 0.9964 – 0.134
ACRIM 1366.09 0.582 0.9829 – 0.261
Lean (model) 1365.95 0.479 0.9634 – 0.069
this work 1232.62 0.523 0.9186 – 0.038
Table of values from Lean, NRL
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11-yr solar cycle UV-vis-IR variability
Solar cycle 22Solar cycle 23UV: 240-400 nmVis-IR: 400-1700 nm
Solar cycle deduced trend
UV: positive
vis: no change (w/in error bar)
IR: negative at opacity min
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UV contribution to 11-year ∆∆∆∆TSI
-1-2tot nm m W 367.1====∆∆∆∆F
Solar cycle 23
37.2
31.2
λλλλλλλλ
λλλλλλλλ dF
2
1
cyc sol∫∫∫∫ ∆∆∆∆====∆∆∆∆
200-300 total UV
20.0 / 62
19.8 / 57
19.8* / 51
*SUSIM
1818
31.2
14.6
9.4
7.6
7.6
1.9
Solar cycle 23
vis-IR contribution to 11-year ∆∆∆∆TSI
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Radiation intervals for GCMs
Band nameWavelength interval
No. of intervals
No. of modeled or calculated intervals
SCIA GOME SUSIM SIPLyman αααα121.5 nm 1 point 0 0 1 1
Schumann-Runge125 −−−− 205 nm 4 bands 0 0 4 4
Herzberg continuum206 −−−− 243 nm 15 0 0 15 15Hartley bands243 −−−− 278 nm 10 10 10 10 10
Huggins bands278 −−−− 363 nm 18 18 18 18 18
Chappuis band407 −−−− 683 nm 1 1 1 0 0
Total
Method
49 29
A
29
A
48
B
48
B
Method
A 11-yr extrapolation
B direct ratio
SIP (Solar2000)from Tobiska, SpaceWx
2020
Radiation intervals for GCMs
[email protected] Observed solar variability from GOME and SCIA for GCMs
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Summary and Recommendation
� A simple irradiance model parametrizes GOME and SCI AMACHY observed solar variations
• using Mg II (faculae brightening) and PSI (sunspot darkening)
� Using the simple model,
• we estimate the 11-yr solar cycle variability radia tion intervals that are relevant for GCMs
after doing model validations:
* reconstructed daily spectra with SUSIM, SIM & SIP (within 5% )
* reconstructed TSI and correlate with TIM (slope comparable with Lean‘s model )
* 11-year contribution to ∆∆∆∆TSI with SUSIM & SATIRE (large difference at 300-400 nm)
We recommend that GCMs use our estimates of 11-year variability
to improve sensitivity of solar cycle influence on climate.
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This work is supported by
(1) DFG-CAWSES (Germany) SOLOZON „Solar variability and ozone interaction“
(2) ISSI, Bern, Switzerland„Solar data, interpretation, and modeling“
Acknowledgements
� Gerald Harder and Juan Fontenla of LASP, University of Coloradofor solar data from SIM/SORCE and from solar atmosph ere model.
� W. Kent Tobiska of Space Environment Technologiesfor Solar Irradiance Platform PG v2.33.
[email protected] Observed solar variability from GOME and SCIA for GCMs
SCIAMACHY is a collaboration between Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium.
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COSPAR COSPAR COSPAR COSPAR
18-25 July 2010
Bremen, Germany
Institut für Umweltphysik
