Value of Market Mechanisms Enabling Improved Wind Power Predictions
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© K.U.Leuven – ESAT/Electa Value of Market Mechanisms Enabling Improved Wind Power Predictions A Case Study for the Estinnes Wind Power Plant Kristof De Vos*, Johan Driesen – K.U.Leuven Athanios Kyriazis – 3E
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Value of Market Mechanisms Enabling Improved Wind Power Predictions. A Case Study for the Estinnes Wind Power Plant. Kristof De Vos *, Johan Driesen – K.U.Leuven Athanios Kyriazis – 3E. Presentation Objectives. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Value of Market Mechanisms Enabling Improved Wind Power Predictions
© K.U.Leuven – ESAT/Electa
Value of Market Mechanisms Enabling Improved Wind Power
PredictionsA Case Study for the Estinnes
Wind Power Plant
Kristof De Vos*, Johan Driesen – K.U.LeuvenAthanios Kyriazis – 3E
© K.U.Leuven – ESAT/Electa
2EWEA 2011
Presentation Objectives
1. Insight in the impact of prediction errors on imbalance costs for wind power generators.
2. Insight in the impact of market mechanisms facilitating improved forecast models on these imbalance costs.
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• Postponed market closure• Intraday markets• 15’ market products
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3EWEA 2011
Table of Contents
1. Imbalance Settlement & Wind Power Predictions2. Case Study I: Estinnes wind power plant3. Case Study II: Improved forecasting model4. Conclusions
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4EWEA 2011
Imbalance Settlement
o Wind = variable RES-E• Limited controllability• Limited predictabilitySYSTEM IMBALANCES
o System balance = real-time balance between off-take and injections• Prerequisite for system security• Responsibility of the TSO• Activation of reserves
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5EWEA 2011
Imbalance Settlement
o Imbalance Settlement Mechanism = costs are accounted to responsible market players.• Balancing Responsible Party (BRP)• Real-time portfolio balance (15’)• Day-Ahead nominations (Gate Closure: 14h00 D-
1)
o Prediction Tools:• Prediction error
Imbalance volumeImbalance cost
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NREL, 2011
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6EWEA 2011
o Improving prediction tools:• Accuracy, Resolution, Horizon
o Requires adapted market mechanisms:• Postponed market closure
Later prediction horizons (improved accuracy)
• Intraday trading Later prediction horizons Intraday price risk
• 15’ market products (~ imbalance settlement) Accurate market bidding
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Imbalance Settlement
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7EWEA 2011
Case Study: Estinnes
o Predictions 3E:• 4 daily runs 7 prediction horizons
DA: 00h, 06h, 12h, 18h ID: 00h, 06h,12h
• Availability: + 6h
o Electricity trading:• Belpex DAM• Imbalance Tariff Elia
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8EWEA 2011
Case Study Estinnes
o 2/4/2010 – 28/09/2010 (180 days)o No wind power plant effectso No unavailability
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Wind speed Measurements
Wind Speed Predictions
ENERCON E-1267.5 MW power
curve
Real-time output
Output prediction
Prediction error
[%] 00h DA 06h DA 12h DA 18h DA 00h ID 06h ID 12h IDBIAS -4,90 -4,83 -4,55 -4,00 -4,14 -3,85 -3,99MAE 9,67 9,68 9,16 8,75 8,74 8,58 8,48RMSE 15,75 15,93 15,04 14,49 14,52 14,21 14,01
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 600
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Imbalance [MW]
Fre
quen
cy
© K.U.Leuven – ESAT/Electa
9EWEA 2011
Average intraday prices in Euro as a linear interpolation of the Belpex DAM and imbalance tariffs
Market Prices
o Day-Ahead Market: Belpexo Imbalance Tariffs: Eliao Intraday-Prices: Synthetic
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Belpex DAM
ID 12hda
ID 18hda
ID 00hid
ID 06hid
ID 12hid
ID 18hid
Imblance Tariff
42,09 42,23 43,52 44,80 46,08 47,36 48,65 50,8142,09 42,23 39,61 36,99 34,37 31,75 29,13 23,12
5 10 15 200
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Time (h)
Price (
Euro
)
Average daily market prices
BelpexDAM
Elia negative priceElia positive price
5 10 15 20-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Time (h)
Volu
me (
MW
)
Net Regulation Volume
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10EWEA 2011
Market Closure Timing
o Reference: 11h D-1 (00H run)o Alternatively: 12h, 18h D-1 (06, 12H run)
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€/MWh 11h 12h 18h
Imbalance Cost 8,90 9,37 8,21
Profit 33,47 32,99 34,15
Increasing imbalance costs due to asymmetric improvement:
Impact asymmetric imbalance tariffsTake into account trends in imbalance prices
11h 12h 18h8000
8100
8200
8300
8400
8500
8600
8700
8800Positive Imbalance (MWh)
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11EWEA 2011
Intraday Trading
o Reference: 11h D-1o Alternatively: 6 intraday slots
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€/MWh 11h 12h 18h 00h id 06h id 12h id 18h id
Imbalance Cost 8,90 10,10 9,98 10,50 11,82 12,90 13,73
Profit 33,47 32,27 32,39 31,86 30,55 29,46 28,63
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.540
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Time (h)
Out
put
(MW
)
RT output
Pred 00hdaPred 12hda
Increasing imbalance costs due to non-converging improvements:
Increasing trading volumesLarge negative value when using rolling intraday
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12EWEA 2011
15’ market products
o Reference: 11h D-1o Alternatively: 11 D-1, 15’ Belpex DAM
product
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€/MWh 11h 11h 15’
Imbalance Cost 8,90 8,95
Profit 33,47 33,41
0 1 2 3 430
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Time (h)
Out
put
(MW
)
prediction 15min
prediction 1houtput 15min
0 1 2 3 40
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Time (h)
Pric
e (E
uro)
Neg. Imbalance
Pos. Imbalance
Insignificant impact on imbalance costs:
Constant Belpex DAM pricesAveraging
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13EWEA 2011
Improved Forecasting Model
o New day-ahead prediction model 3Eo Synthetic intraday predictions
• Linear converging from day-ahead prediction (00h run) until real-time output.
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BIAS MAE RMSE
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20% Model 1
Model 2
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14EWEA 2011
Improved Forecasting Model
o Results: Decreasing imbalance costs, increasing profits Positive value market mechanisms
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11H18H
11H ID18H ID
11H ID 15'
18H ID 15'
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 Model 2
Model 1
Scenario
Profi
t (€/
MW
h)
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15EWEA 2011
Conclusions
o Value suggested market mechanisms depends strongly on forecast model characteristics.• Requires:
Symmetric improvements Converging intraday predictions
o Recommendations for further research:• Further improve prediction models• Optimizing market bids taking into account
uncertainty balancing tariff.
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16EWEA 2011
Questions?
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Thank you for your attention!Kristof De [email protected]
More information @ http://www.7mw-wec-by-11.eu
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17EWEA 2011
Appendix 1
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