Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham...

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FEBRUARY 2012 Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014

Transcript of Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham...

Page 1: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

FEBRUARY 2012

Value Investing in Asia

Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference

April 8, 2014

Page 2: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too
Page 3: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too
Page 4: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

Manage Partnership for Bear Markets

Deliver Results to Limited Partners

Overlook’s Tools

Focused & Independent Structure

Investment Culture

Proven Investment Philosophy

The Overlook Model

Page 5: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

Two Drivers of Outperformance • Proven Investment Philosophy

-  Superior Businesses -  Management with Integrity -  Bargain Valuation -  Long Term Time Horizon

• Business Component -  Delivery of Returns to Investors

•  Measured by “Discount” Between TWR & CWR -  Single Fund Structure -  Legal Limit on Growth of Subscriptions -  Commitment to Cut Fees

• Too Many Managers Ignore Business Component

Page 6: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

Path to Performance in Asia • Pricing Power • Utilization of Free Cash Flow • High Profitability • Sustainable EPS Growth • Valuation

Page 7: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

Pricing Power In Action

15.0%

25.0%

35.0%

45.0%

55.0%

65.0%

0 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

Revenue (USD mn) Gross Profit Margin

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

35,000

45,000

55,000

65,000

75,000

85,000

95,000

Revenue Cash Gross Profit Margin

Want-Want Holdings TSMC

Page 8: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

Companies without Pricing Power Huaneng Power International Au Optronics

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Revenue   EBITDA  Margin  

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Revenue   EBITDA  Margin  

Page 9: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

Different Utilizations of Free Cash Flow

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

10,000

Gross Cash Flow Capex Dividends

BEC TSMC

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Gross Cash Flow Capex Dividends

Page 10: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

High Profitability Combined with Moderate Growth

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Operating Return Return on Equity Normalized Growth

Source: Overlook Investments

Page 11: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

Sustainable EPS Growth • Earnings Growth Critical to Long Term Performance

-  Last 12 Years at Overlook EPS Growth plus Dividends Contributed 82% of Performance

• Drivers of High Quality EPS Growth -  Pricing Power -  Low Cyclicality of Business -  Ability to Increase Market Share -  High Profitability -  Earnings Track Record -  Strong Balance Sheet

• Preface: Always External Risks that Cannot be Controlled

Page 12: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

Valuations • Can’t Ignore Valuation • Equations Offer Benchmark

-  Ben Graham’s •  Price / Book Value Times P/E < 22.5

-  John Neff’s •  EPS Growth Rate, Plus Dividend Yield / P/E

-  Overlook’s •  ROE + Normalized EPS Growth Rate / 4

• Know Long Term Valuation Trends

Page 13: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

Overlook’s Long Term Valuation Trends

0!

2!

4!

6!

8!

10!

12!

14!

16!

18!

Mar-9

4

Dec-9

5

Jul-9

8

Jul-9

9

Jul-0

0

Feb-

01

Nov-0

1

Jul-0

2

Jul-0

3

Jul-0

4

Jul-0

5

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

3

P/E Current Year P/E Forward 1 Year

! ! !

Source: Overlook Investments

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Path to Out Performance:

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Price to Book Value

Forward P/E

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EPS Growth Rate

Dividend Yield

Net Cash (Debt)/Equity

Return on Equity

Operating Return

Percentile January 2014 June 2013 January 2013

Source: Capital IQ & Overlook: Overlook’s Portfolio by Percentile Compared to Asian Universe (>$3bn)

Page 15: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

Virtuous Cycle Provides Margin of Safety

Outperformance Pricing Power

High Profitability

Focus on Valuation

Free Cash Flow

Page 16: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

Results of The Overlook Model

• The Model is Overlook’s Strongest Asset -  Simple Structure, Effective Investment Philosophy,

Clear Objective & Long Track Record of Success - History Suggests Model Delivers Value

-  Capital Weighted Returns ≥ Time Weighted Returns -  9.5 Percentage Points of Outperformance Per Year -  Profits Comprise >70% of Overlook’s AUM

Page 17: Value Investing in Asia - Ivey Business School · 2016-06-23 · Value Investing in Asia Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference April 8, 2014 . ... • Too

FEBRUARY 2012

Value Investing in Asia

Ben Graham Center for Value Investing Value Investing Conference

April 8, 2014