Utilization of the Stony Brook University Mesoscale Ensemble System at WFO's and RFC's Jeffrey...
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Transcript of Utilization of the Stony Brook University Mesoscale Ensemble System at WFO's and RFC's Jeffrey...
Utilization of the Stony Brook University Mesoscale
Ensemble System at WFO's and RFC's
Jeffrey Tongue
Robert Shedd
NOAA/NWS
Overview
• Objective
• How and what data the NWS (WFO and RFC) is getting
• What we’re doing with it
• Example from Hurricane Jeanne
Objective
• Allow operational forecasters to improve:– Understanding NWP Systems.– Understanding NWP Parameterizations.– Utilization of ensemble systems.
• Demonstrate the value of local short range ensemble systems for research and operations.
Web Pages
• Pro’s– Availability– Easy of Access
• Con’s– Non interactive– Static Graphics– Precipitation Displays
AWIPS
• Timeliness– Internet speed improved– New Linux Cluster at SBU
• (ensemble data by 2-3 AM vs 8-10 AM)
• Consistency– New scripts
• Bottom Line – If you want to use research data in operations
it MUST be consistently available and timely.
River Forecast Centers
• Hydrological Ensembles for MM5 QPF
• http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/mm5_test.shtml
Currently 4 Locations
• Black River at Boonville, NY
• Smith River at Bristol, NH
• White River at West Hartford, VT
• Pemigewasset River at Woodstock, NH
Case Example
• Hurricane Jeanne
• 27-29 September 04
• 4-5 Inches of Rain NYC/LI
• 2-3 Inches Lower Hudson Valley/CT
Summary
• 40 FFW’s Issued (OKX CWA).• A Flash Flood Watch Was Issued Tuesday
Afternoon (28/18Z).• NCEP/HPC Models Greatly Underestimated the
Precipitation and the focus of the precip.• Short Range ensemble showed consistency and
the focus location of the QPF.• Models/Ensemble under-predict heavy precip
events.
Conclusions
• Use of Short Range Ensembles is critical.
• Forecasters do not “trust” experimental models/data.
• Forecasters need to continue to learn to integrate ensembles of models into the forecast process.
• GFE has “re-promoted” the model of the day concept.
Some Future Plans
• Expand Ensemble Hydrographs
• Continue Outreach and Training
• Add members of the Ensemble to AWIPS
• Increase use of ensemble data in GFE
• Increase utilization of WS-eta
• Evaluation of local WRF element
• Increase ensemble use in GFE/NDFD