Utah Past, Present & FAST FORWARD

8/14/2019 Utah Past, Present & FAST FORWARD

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/utah-past-present-fast-forward 1/39

Utah Past, Present &FAST FORWARD

Arthur C. (Christian “Chris”) Nelson, Ph.D., FAICPPresidential Professor & Director

Metropolitan Research Center University of UtahJanuary 11, 2010



America Grows

200 million in 1968

300 million in 2006

400 million in 2034500 million in 2050

America adds 100 million people faster

than any other nation except India andPakistan – But faster than China.

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director of Metropolitan Research,University of Utah.



The Boom to Come 2010-30

Area Utah Rank1990-2010

Pop. Growth 1.2M 14

Growth Rate 68% 3

2010-2030

Pop. Growth 1.5M 11

Growth Rate 51% 1Will rise from 34th to 28 th most populous state

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.



The Boom to ComeSalt Lake Metro

Metros > 1M (52) Salt Lake Rank

1990-2010

Pop. Growth 400k 28

Growth Rate 53% 12

2010-2030

Pop. Growth 500k 27

Growth Rate 42% 8Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center,

University of Utah.




More Growth than: San Antonio

San Jose

Tucson

Virginia Beach

Will Surpass: LouisvilleMemphis

Milwaukee

Oklahoma City




Faster Growth rate than: Orlando

Dallas-Ft. WorthDenver

Washington DC

TampaSeattle



The Boom to ComeProvo & Ogden Metros

Metros > 500k-1M (51) Provo Ogden

1990-2010

Pop. Growth 300k 5 210k 11

Growth Rate 110% 1 60% 5

2010-2030






The Boom to ComeLogan & St. George Metros

Metros < 250k (183) Logan St. George

1990-2010



2010-2030


Growth Rate 52% 8 150% 1Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of

Utah.



The Boom to ComeBC, Cedar City & Heber MicrosMicro (574) Brigham Cedar City Heber

1990-2010

Pop. Growth 13k 110 30k 28 15k 100

Growth Rate 36% 79 140% 5 145% 4

2010-2030

Pop. Growth 20k 61 40k 22 25k 46

Growth Rate 42% 29 75% 4 100% 1Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of

Utah.



2040

20402010

332billionsquarefeet




287 billionsquare feet

Source: Data from Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center,University of Utah. Image from Architect magazine, premier issue, November 2006.



Wasatch Range Megapolitan

Area 2010-30

3rd fastest growing behind:

Las Vegas & Sun Corridor Faster growing than “high-growth” megas:

Front Range & Cascadia

Sierra Pacific & Southern Cal

Texas Triangle & Florida

Piedmont & Chesapeake



Population Growth 2010-2030

Area 2010 2030 Change Percent

Wasatch 2.5M 3.6M 1.1M 45%

Utah 2.9M 4.4M 1.5M 50%

Numbers may not calculate due to rounding.

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding. Figures adapted from 2008 Economic Report to the Governor , Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget.



Residential Units 2010-2030

Area 2010 2030 New/Rebuilt %’10

Wasatch 900k 1.35M 450k 50%

Utah 1.1M 1.65M 550k 50%


Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding. Figures based on residential units per capita 2000 adjusted for declining household size, plus loss factor based on census analysis.



Employment Growth 2010-2030

Area 2010 2030 Change Percent

Wasatch 1.5M 2.2M 700k 50%

Utah 1.7M 2.6M 900k 50%


Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding. Employment includes full- and part-time

jobs as defined by BEA.



Nonresidential Space 2010-2030

Area 2010 2030 New/Rebuilt %’10

Wasatch 750M 1.1B 900M 120%

Utah 850M 1.3B 1.2B 120%


Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Numbers may not add or calculate due to rounding.



40,000 Housing Units Short

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, Universityof Utah



Substantial Pent-Up Demand

100,000 more Utahns “doubling up” than 2005.

Pent-up demand for about 40,000 new units

Economic recovery will mean housing gets aOne-Two Punch:

New homes needed to serve growth

New homes needed to reduce doubling upDuring 2010 & 2011100,000 new units needed

But ….



How Does It Grow?



Households are Changing

Household Type 1960 2000 2040US

HH with Children 48% 33% 26%

HH without Children 52% 67% 74%Single/Other HH 13% 29% 34% _________________________________________

Utah

HH with Children 47% 38%HH without Children 53% 62%Single/Other HH 18% 22%

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University

of Utah.



People Turning 65 Each Year [Figures in 000s]

Source: US Census Bureau – 65+ in the United States: 2005; Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, & Kimberly A DeBarros. December 2005.

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1 9

5 0

1 9

5 5

1 9

6 0

1 9

6 5

1 9

7 0

1 9

7 5

1 9

8 0

1 9

8 5

1 9

9 0

1 9

9 5

2 0

0 0

2 0

0 5

2 0

1 0

2 0

1 5

2 0

2 0

2 0

2 5



Share of Growth 2000-2040

US HH Type ShareWith children 14%

Without children 86%

Single/Other 30%Utah

With children 25%

Without children 75%Single/Other 25%

Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, MetropolitanResearch Center, University of Utah.



“New Urbanity” Preferences

Source: National Association of Realtors, American Preference Survey 2004.



Preferred Community Attributes

Housing type: Mix of single familyhomes & town homes

Neighborhood age/life stage

mix: Mix of ages & stages Public transportation options:

Bus, Rail, TRAX

Type of community: Village Lot size: Variety of lot sizes

Open space: Active & passive

Architecture: Distinctive

PreferredCombination

of 75% of

Utahns

Was about 25% in

1990s

Source: Envision Utah based on Harris Interactive



New Housing Market Realities Sub-prime mortgages are history

Alt-A mortgages no more

FHA-like conventional mortgages king

“Jumbo” loans problematic Demand for $1million+ homes tanked

Realization that location matters for investment

Meaning Smaller homes on smaller lots

More renters

Trend to more “urbane” location options



Growth Share by Ethnicity

Ethnicity 2000 2030 Rate Share

White* 1.5M 2.1M 40% 45%

Non-White 260k 1.0M 285% 55%

*Non-Hispanic White

Source: Adapted from Woods & Poole Economics (2008) by Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP, Presidential Professor andDirector, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah.



Home Ownership by Ethnicity - Utah

Ethnicity Ownership 2006

All Households 72%

White* 74%Black 48%

Hispanic 50%

Asian/Pacific Islander 53%

*Non-Hispanic White

Source: Freddie Mac.



The Future is all About Education

100 Latina/o ElementaryStudents

40 High School Graduates

4 College Graduates

1 Masters Degree

~0.1 Doctorate

100 White ElementaryStudents

84 High School Graduates

26 College Graduates

10 Masters Degrees

1 Doctorate

Source: Adapted from Octavio Villalpando, University of Utah.



Shifting Tenure Market

Salt Lake, Provo & Ogden MetrosTenure 2006 2030 Change Share

Owner 480k 650k 170k 51%

Renter 200k 360k 160k 49%

Total 680k 1.0M 330k

2008-2015 2/3–3/4 of New Housing will be for Renters including those who rent detached homes




2040 1+1+5+25 =Wasatch “New Urbanity” Demand

1%+ Demand for downtown SLC

40,000 people (minimum)

1%+ Demand for secondary centers (Ogden, Sandy, Provo)

40,000 people

5%+ Demand for near-center living (Several SLC locations)

200,000 people

25%+ Demand for transit-connected, suburban plannedcommunities (Day Break)

1,000,000 people

= Two-thirds of all new development to 2040

Top Planning Programs

http://localhost/Users/william/Downloads//space/acnelson/Attachments/US.bmp




Top Planning Programs





THANK YOU http://metroresearch.utah.edu/

Utah Past, Present & FAST FORWARD

Documents

Transcript of Utah Past, Present & FAST FORWARD