Animated_World_Globe

Using an Infrastructure Planning Support System to quantify climate change Presentation by: Michael TarbertEnvironmental Sustainability REUAdvisor: Dr. ChinowskyMentor: Amy SchweikertPresentation OutlineProject Background

Methodology

Results

Conclusions

SummaryProject BAckgroundICliCS, IPSS, Research ImportanceBackgroundICliCS researches the immediate and far reaching effects of climate, both quantitatively and qualitatively on basic infrastructure.Contracts with International organizations and governments.

Background: InfrastructureWhy is infrastructure important?Key to economic growth.Important for social growth, especially in developing countries.Indicator for all 8 Millennium Development goals(African Union, 2005)

Background: ImportanceWhy is climate change important to infrastructure?First, we must accept climate change is currently happening, and will continue to occur.Second, we must understand the importance of Infrastructure and transportation networks to the human population.Third, infrastructure is vulnerable to the effects of climate change.This study focuses on the road transportation

Background: IPSSInfrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS)Program that utilizes global climate modeling predictions through the year 2100 to produce quantitative dataMonetary costs to adapt, and not to adapt to climate change (Produce annual costs)Study uses IPSS to: quantify the impacts climate change (temperature and precipitation) on road infrastructure.Assist policymakers to determine future actions.

Background: PurposeThe purpose of this study is to update a former study- Climate change: comparative impact on developing and developed countries (Chinowsky et al. 2011)

Climate change impacts on road infrastructure in 10 different countries, ranging from Lower to Upper income levels.Show why adapting is necessaryShow why developing countries are especially in danger!Background: 10 CountriesCountryWorld Bank income levelTotal KM RoadEthiopiaLower36 469CameroonLower-middle50 000The PhilippinesLower-middle204 964BoliviaLower-middle62 479CroatiaUpper-middle29 038VenezuelaUpper-middle96 145SwedenHigh427 035New ZealandHigh93 748JapanHigh1 196 999ItalyHigh487 815MethodologyClimate Modeling, Road ImpactsMethodology: Climate ModelingGlobal Circulation Models (GCMs)54 IPCC approved modelsFuture climate predictionsGIS as a tool using Climate Research Units (CRU) (grid structure)

Climate data (GCMs) applied to road inventory by CRU grid.

Methodology: Road ImpactsIPSS looks for stress factorsPrecipitation or temperature threshold is exceeded, inducing extra maintenance cost.Left with decision: To adapt, or not to adaptUnpaved GravelGravel Update drainage methodsPaved Update Binder types

***No adapt incurs increased maintenance costsResults

Median/Max costs, Opportunity Cost, Risk AnalysisResults: determining Max/MedianFinding Median and Maximum Costs by GCM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIhZoYqirQk&feature=youtube_gdata_player14Results: Opportunity CostUniversal evaluation method developed by ICliCSOCx=(CCxSRCx)/PRx X- country of interestOC- Opportunity Cost (%)CC- Total cost of climate changeSRC- cost to construct 1 km of secondary paved roadPR- Countries current paved road stockShows the amount of paved road inventory a country could have constructed through 2100Results: Opportunity CostCountryOpportunity CostBolivia334%Ethiopia407%Cameroon139%Croatia196%The Philippines294%Venezuela94%Sweden74%New Zealand124%Japan45%Italy66%Results: Risk AnalysisResults: Risk AnalysisResults: Risk AnalysisCountryTotal Max AdaptTotal Median AdaptTotal Max No AdaptTotal Median No AdaptBolivia $2 194.14 $2 001.76 $4 674.41 $2 326.51 Ethiopia $2 667.34 $2 440.46 $7 399.14 $3 311.95 Cameroon $1 046.20 $ 934.04 $2 137.61 $1 210.96 Croatia $7 623.94 $9 849.39 $20 839.10 $14 132.10 The Philippines $8 764.88 $7 560.49 $12 960.39 $7 331.24 Venezuela $4 532.63 $4 425.14 $15 908.71 $13 826.84 Sweden $15 107.94 $4 760.72 $46 985.40 $9 604.85 New Zealand $11 366.66 $8 120.04 $26 490.70 $26 409.00 Japan $63 667.70 $52 250.80 $188 752. $115 021. Italy $39,400.30 $34,477.20 $130,281.9 $138,006.4ConclusionsAdapting, Developing Countries, Future WorkConclusionsAdapting road infrastructure is beneficialIt makes centsPositive social implicationsAssists in meeting MDG

ConclusionsDeveloping countries incur the most cost

Yet, have the least amount of resources to adapt let alone expand infrastructureIPSS is a tool that can be used to formulate infrastructure plans and mitigate climate change impacts

Conclusions: Future WorkSustainable construction practices

More in-depth country detail- accuracy

Including a growth function for road stockMore realistic approach

Questions?