USER GUIDE AND EXPLANATORY NOTE FOR TINA - ESCAP

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USER GUIDE AND EXPLANATORY NOTE FOR TINA THE TRADE INTELLIGENCE AND NEGOTIATION ADVISER

Transcript of USER GUIDE AND EXPLANATORY NOTE FOR TINA - ESCAP

Page 1: USER GUIDE AND EXPLANATORY NOTE FOR TINA - ESCAP

USER GUIDE AND

EXPLANATORY NOTE

FOR TINA THE TRADE INTELLIGENCE AND

NEGOTIATION ADVISER

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Contents

I. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................................. 2

1. ACCESSING TINA ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2

2. START ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2

II. DISPLAY CURRENT TRADE .............................................................................................................................................. 4

III. SET A NEGOTIATION PARTNER ................................................................................................................................. 5

1. OVERVIEW OF TRADING ECONOMIES ................................................................................................................................................ 5

2. BUILDING A NEGOTIATION LIST ...................................................................................................................................................... 10

3. TARIFF SIMULATION .......................................................................................................................................................................... 13

IV. PREFERENCE LOSS SIMULATION ........................................................................................................................... 18

V. LATEST DEVELOPMENTS .............................................................................................................................................. 20

VI. LITERATURE ................................................................................................................................................................. 21

List of Screenshots

Screen 1: Home Page ......................................................................................................................................... 3

Screen 2: Selecting Economies ........................................................................................................................... 3

Screen 3: Options for Negotiating for Economies ............................................................................................... 4

Screen 4: Display Current Trade ......................................................................................................................... 5

Screen 5: Bilateral Trade Negotiation .................................................................................................................. 6

Screen 6: Current Trade ...................................................................................................................................... 7

Screen 7: Trade Facilitation ................................................................................................................................. 7

Screen 8: Trade Agreements ............................................................................................................................... 7

Screen 9: Non-Tariff Measures ............................................................................................................................ 9

Screen 10: Commodity Search ............................................................................................................................ 9

Screen 11: Result of Commodity Search ........................................................................................................... 10

Screen 12: The Negotiation List ........................................................................................................................ 13

Screen 13: Build Negotiation List ....................................................................................................................... 13

Screen 14: Settings of Tariff Simulation ............................................................................................................. 16

Screen 15: Result of Tariff Simulation ............................................................................................................... 17

Screen 16: Trade Diversion Impacts on Commodity 750300 ............................................................................ 17

Screen 17: Preference Loss Simulation ............................................................................................................ 19

Screen 18: Result of Loss of Preferential Treatment ......................................................................................... 19

Screen 19: Affected Trade Flows in Simulation ................................................................................................. 20

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User Guide and Explanatory Note for TINA:

the trade intelligence and negotiation

adviser (Working version)

I. INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this guide is to narrate how to use TINA, Trade Intelligence

and Negotiation Adviser, developed by the Trade Policy and Facilitation

Section of Trade, Investment and Innovation Division of the United Nations

Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). TINA is

designed to assist ESCAP member States to negotiate trade agreements

and enhance trade in support of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable

Development. It provides insight on current tariffs, non-tariff measures

(NTMs), agreements and bilateral trade flows, and serves to identify key

commodities to negotiate better tariffs. Please note as TINA is continuingly

being developed, some discrepancies with the look/available features may

occur. For any queries, please contact us.

1. ACCESSING TINA

To access TINA, please type the following link into a modern web browser’s

(such as Firefox, Chrome, or Safari) address bar:

https://tina.trade

Please note, this is a temporary website until TINA is fully published.

2. START ANALYSIS

Screen 1 shows the home page of TINA. Click “GET STARTED” button to

start analysis. Further information about TINA is presented by “LEARN

MORE”.

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For the first step, a member State of ESCAP needs to be selected. Users

should type the name of an interested state in the input field. As shown in

Screen 2, Bangladesh is used as an illustrative example in this guide.

After selecting an economy to negotiate for, the page moves to Screen 3. As

shown, TINA has three features for bilateral trade negotiation (1) display

current trade, (2) set a negotiation partner and (3) stimulate preference

loss.

Screen 1: Home Page

Screen 2: Selecting EconomiesScreen 3: Home Page

Screen 4: Selecting Economies

Screen 5: Options for Negotiating for EconomiesScreen 6: Selecting Economies

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Users can either type the trade partner in the input area or scroll down the

page to check the number of trade agreements and trade balance of each

economy with Bangladesh to select one as the negotiation rival1.

II. Display Current Trade

Under the feature “display of current trade”, as shown in Screen 4, TINA

presents a pie chart illustrating the annual share of exports and imports for

the selected economy and a list of top traded commodities with 6-digit

Harmonization System Code (HS-Code). Users can switch between the data

for exports and imports by choosing from the options above and have access

to data for different years by clicking the year number in the right corner.

1 Please note, some data of trade balance are not available (import value of India from Bangladesh), so the data from UN Comtrade Database are used (the export value of Bangladesh to India is used instead).

Screen 7: Options for Negotiating for Economies

Screen 8: Display Current TradeScreen 9: Options for Negotiating for Economies

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III. Set a Negotiation Partner

1. Overview of trading economies

The second feature of TINA is the core function which provides extensive

overviews of bilateral trade, current trade agreements, Non-Tariff Measures

& tariffs, and facilitates building a negotiation list. This list can help an

economy to prioritize the goods for negotiation that will benefit most from

better market access and can form a useful starting point when formulating

a negotiation position.

For the first step, a negotiation partner needs to be selected (as shown on

Screen 3). Once a country is chosen, TINA shifts from Screen 3 to Screen 5.

There are four functions TINA supports in bilateral trade negotiation:

• The function “Current Trade” visualizes detailed bilateral trade data of

both economies. Top export and import partners of both economies are

illustrated in four pie charts and the most traded commodities are listed

with descriptions and their 6-digit HS-Code (Screen 6). For example,

Germany is the most important trade partner for Bangladesh

representing 15.2% of total exports and United States is the biggest

export destination of India. China, as the largest import source for both

economies, accounts for 31.15% of total imports for Bangladesh and

14.5% for India. India is the second largest import source for Bangladesh

as it represents 15.34% of the total, however, Bangladesh is not an

important partner for India. For commodities, top imported products of

India from Bangladesh are Trousers, Shirts etc. Users can check trade

data available from the year 2013 to 2019.

Screen 10: Display Current Trade

Screen 11: Bilateral Trade NegotiationScreen 12: Display Current Trade

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• The function “Trade Facilitation” gives a comparative picture of

implementation of trade facilitation measures between two economies

(Screen 7). Users can compare the performance of trade facilitation

more precisely across years and regions using the UNTF Survey by

clicking “Learn More” button.

Screen 13: Bilateral Trade Negotiation

Screen 14: Current TradeScreen 15: Bilateral Trade Negotiation

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Screen 16: Current Trade

Screen 17: Trade FacilitationScreen 18: Current Trade

Screen 19: Trade Facilitation

Screen 20: Trade AgreementsScreen 21: Trade Facilitation

Screen 22: Trade Agreements

Screen 23: Non-Tariff MeasuresScreen 24: Trade Agreements

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The “Trade Agreements” function generates all trade agreements which

both selected economies are a part of (Screen 8). It includes all trade

agreements involving two economies which are already signed and may be

potentially signed later (under negotiation or pending ratification). Details of

each agreement are provided in the last column.

• And an overview of Non-Tariff measures which can affect the

achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are presented

in the function “Non-Tariff Measures”. The data from both economies

and the world average for each SDG are demonstrated in a histogram

(Screen 9). In addition, users interested in NTMs on a commodities level

can search for related information by giving the HS-code of the product

in “Commodity Search” function (Screen 10). In the example for this

guide, the product “Trousers” with HS-Code “620342” is searched for.

Consequently, results seen in Screen 11 contain bilateral and world trade

values, the description of commodity, three tariff rates, values of two

comparative advantage (explanation in next part), graph of historical

trade value of selected good, list of preferential tariffs, and histogram of

NTMs on the commodity. In the histogram of historical trade of

commodities, value and unit price of exports from Bangladesh between

2013 and 2018 are illustrated by two lines. Also, it is possible to compare

value and unit price of imports from India to other countries by adjusting

options below the graph. In addition, the lists for preferential tariffs show

not only the tariffs for a specific product charged by India to Bangladesh,

also tariffs for other economies under preferential trade agreements. By

clicking the arrows near the name of agreements, economies in

agreements are showed and can be investigated further using the

histogram of historical trade. Lastly, the graph of NTMs shows the

number of NTMs on the product and can be used to investigate whether

the product of economy is discriminated by trade partner compared to

other economies.

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Screen 25: Non-Tariff Measures

Screen 26: Commodity SearchScreen 27: Non-Tariff Measures

Screen 28: Commodity Search

Screen 29: Result of Commodity SearchScreen 30: Commodity Search

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2. Building a Negotiation List

The main feature of TINA is to “Build a Negotiation List”, which allows

users to find out the most worthwhile commodities to (re-)negotiate on a

lower tariff considering different factors, such as comparative advantage.

TINA can also calculate the effect of tariff liberalization for any number of

selected commodities and access potential defensiveness of a trade partner.

To be included in a negotiation list, a product must fulfill several criteria.

These criteria are generated by Manzano (2014) and Graham et al. (2018).

In TINA, there are four filters corresponding to criteria, as showed in Screen

12. For more information about filters please click the icon.

First two filters are used to identify offensive interest. Filter 1 corresponds to

the first criterion in the paper, namely “The product must be one which trade

partner imports”. According to Graham, this criterion excludes commodities

which trade partners are not interested in and indicates remaining products

can have market access in trade partners. Furthermore, only products with

non-negligible demand of trade partners are worthwhile to be (re-)negotiated

and included in negotiation list (Graham et al., 2018, p. 14). To target these

Screen 31: Result of Commodity Search

Screen 32: The Negotiation ListScreen 33: Result of Commodity Search

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commodities, the lowest threshold of import value needs to be set in filter 1.

It is set by default to 1000 US$, users can type in or drag the slider to

change the minimum import threshold of commodities.

The second criterion ensures that the negotiation list does not include

products that are not or cannot be produced by the economy the user is

negotiating for. The first reason for this criterion is clear: if the country has no

ability to produce a good, tariffs on this good by its trade partners do not

affect anything. The possibility of the development of a new industry after

negotiations seems low as well. Another reason suggests that the country

should have capacity to increase the production of a commodity to take

advantage after a decrease of tariff (Graham et al., 2018, p. 15). Therefore,

using filter 2 users can set a minimum export threshold for commodities

from the interested economy to single out products satisfying the criterion.

The third filter is used to determine the potential of tariff decrease. To be

included in the list, a product must have imposed tariffs by the importing

country. This filter provides a choice of preferential, MFN applied, bound

tariffs at HS-6 level and any combinations among them. By default,

preferential tariffs are ignored meaning that zero tariffs under current trade

agreements are not considered. Please note, only the lowest tariff level will

be effective if a combination of tariffs is chosen. For all tariffs the maximum

at HS6 level is used and negotiators would be necessary to go into details at

tariff line to see which tariff-line products are affected.

The last two filters filtrate products so that only those that the economy has

shown comparative advantage to produce are included in the list. The

reason is that the industries with comparative advantage have the greatest

potential for expansion and the most benefits will arise in these industries

after the liberalization of tariffs. Hence, it is important to prioritize the

negotiation for these industries and ensure their products are contained in

the negotiation list. There are two indicators of revealed comparative

advantage2 used by these filters. The filter 4A uses the index of standard

revealed comparative advantage (SRCA)3 and the value is set by default to

one. A product which has an SRCA value exceeding one means that the

country exports disproportionately more of that good compared to the world

average. The filter 4B uses the bilateral revealed comparative advantage

(BRCA)4 to measure whether an economy is good at producing one good

relative to the respective trade partner (Graham et al., 2018, p. 18-19).

2 The definition of revealed comparative advantage of a good is that the ratio between export value of a good and total exports of an economy is larger than the ratio of world exports of that good relative to total world export. 3 The mathematical expression of SRCA for good 𝑘 and country 𝑖 is: 𝑆𝑅𝐶𝐴𝑖

𝑘 = (𝑋𝑖,𝑤𝑘 𝑋𝑖,𝑤⁄ )/(𝑋𝑤,𝑤

𝑘 𝑋𝑤,𝑤⁄ ). 4 The mathematical expression of BRCA for good 𝑘 between country 𝑖 and 𝑗 is: 𝐵𝑅𝐶𝐴𝑖,𝑗

𝑘 = (𝑋𝑖,𝑗𝑘 𝑋𝑖,𝑗⁄ )/(𝑋𝑖,𝑤

𝑘 𝑋𝑖,𝑤⁄ ) ,

where 𝑋𝑖,𝑗𝑘 is the export of good 𝑘 from 𝑖 to 𝑗, 𝑋𝑖,𝑗 is the total export from 𝑖 to 𝑗. 𝑋𝑖,𝑤

𝑘 and 𝑋𝑖,𝑤 represent the export of good

𝑘 from 𝑖 to the world and the total export to the world respectively.

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However, this filter could be skipped, if the economy has no access into the

market of trade partner for different reasons.

The last step before generating of negotiation list is to consider whether

trade partners will act defensively during the negotiation on tariff reduction of

a product. Trade partners with strong domestic industries of the product may

be threatened by new imports and will behave in a defensive manner.

Although there are many other factors determining a defensive list, TINA just

highlights two criteria:

1. Whether the export value of the good from the trade partner to the

world is in the top of 75% of total exports. This proxies for domestic

production.

2. Whether The value of bilateral exports from the interested economy

to the trade partner are over 10% of the total value of exports for

that good from the trade partner. This proxies the threat the economy

poses to trade partners (Graham et al., 2018, p. 20).

In the end, the negotiation list can be generated by clicking the button

“Generate Negotiation List” in the lower right of the page. (There are two

additional options for the unit of US Dollar and years of data in the lower

left).

After TINA has processed the data, the negotiation list is completed and

displayed (Screen 13). Between Bangladesh and India, there are 260

commodities that passed the criteria and are included in the offensive list.

The first two columns are the code and description of each product at 6-digit

level. The column 3, 4 and 5 provide the statistics for trade of listed products

in the elected year. In the example, BGD stands for Bangladesh, IND is

India. Then, three different types of tariffs are shown from columns 6 to

columns 8, which are Maximum Bound Tariff, Maximum MFN Tariff and

Lowest preferential Tariff respectively. Because not all products have non-

zero preferential tariffs under trade agreements, some data in column 8 is

missing. If the interested products have no data, users can get more

information by clicking the code of products and TINA returns the results as

in Screen 11. The values of the revealed comparative advantage SRCA and

BRCA for each good are shown in the following two columns. The column 11

indicates whether India has possibility to act in a defensive manner for each

good.

Users can sort the list by different criteria by clicking the column name. There

is also an option to export the list as CSV-file in the upper right of the list. By

clicking “Modify Filters”, numbers of products which pass each filter are

now labeled in the front.

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3. Tariff Simulation

In order to explore the effects of tariff reduction, TINA provides the partial

equilibrium analysis by running a tariff simulation of selected commodities

Screen 34: The Negotiation List

Screen 35: Build Negotiation ListScreen 36: The Negotiation List

Screen 37: Build Negotiation List

Screen 38: Settings of Tariff SimulationScreen 39: Build Negotiation List

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from the negotiation list. The partial equilibrium analysis is a widely used ex-

ante analysis to evaluate trade policy changes at a disaggregated level and

no interactions between various markets are considered. It has two

advantages compared to the general equilibrium model. First, there are

many ready-made and easy-to-use models available online and results are

easy to interpret. Second, the partial equilibrium model needs less data. Only

data from the sector in question is necessary, such as trade flows, trade

policy data and elasticities (Bacchetta et al., 2016, p. 139).

The analysis cannot only generate the effect on trade flows, also the

outcomes of trade creation (or loss) and trade diversion which constitute

changes in trade value. The trade creation (or loss) is caused by the

changed amount of domestic demand for an import good from a country,

because the price of this good changes due to tariff change or varied relative

price to domestic produced substitutes. The formulation of trade creation is:

𝑇𝐶𝑖𝑗𝑘 = 𝑀𝑖𝑗𝑘 ∙ 𝐸𝑚 ∙𝑑𝑡𝑖𝑗𝑘

(1 + 𝑡𝑖𝑗𝑘) ∙ (1 ∙𝐸𝑚𝐸𝑥 )

Where 𝑀𝑖𝑗𝑘 is the imports of good 𝑖 in country 𝑗 from country 𝑘. 𝐸𝑚 and 𝐸𝑥

are elasticity of import demand with respect to domestic price and elasticity

of export supply with respect to export price, respectively. 𝑡𝑖𝑗𝑘 denotes the

tariff rate or non-tariff measures in country 𝑗 to good 𝑖 from country 𝑘.

The trade diversion is defined as the substitution of products from some

foreign exporters for products from other exporters. The reason of trade

diversion is that the changes in the tariff rates are different for various

countries and lead to changes in relative prices of goods from different

suppliers. This can arise through changes in the MFN rate, the preference

rate, or both. The mathematical expression is as follows5:

𝑇𝐷𝑖𝑗𝑘 =𝑀𝑖𝑗𝑘

∑ 𝑀𝑖𝑗𝑘∙

∑ 𝑀𝑖𝑗𝑘 ∙ ∑ 𝑀𝑖𝑗𝐾 ∙ 𝐸𝑠 ∙𝑑(

𝑃𝑖𝑗𝑘

𝑃𝑖𝑗𝐾)

(𝑃𝑖𝑗𝑘

𝑃𝑖𝑗𝐾)

∑ 𝑀𝑖𝑗𝑘 + ∑ 𝑀𝑖𝑗𝐾 + ∑ 𝑀𝑖𝑗𝑘 ∙ 𝐸𝑠 ∙𝑑(

𝑃𝑖𝑗𝑘

𝑃𝑖𝑗𝐾)

(𝑃𝑖𝑗𝑘

𝑃𝑖𝑗𝐾)

Where 𝐸𝑠 is the elasticity of substitution with respect to relative prices of the

same product from different sources of supply, 𝑃𝑖𝑗𝑘 is the price of good 𝑖 in

5 Note this expression of trade diversion is applicable when the value of elasticity of substitution between goods from different

sources 𝐸𝑠 are available. If it is not the case, another formulation is used: 𝑇𝐷𝑖𝑗𝑘 = 𝑇𝐶𝑖𝑗𝑘 ∙ (𝑀𝑛𝑖𝑗

𝑉𝑖𝑗), where 𝑀𝑛 is the imports

from non-preference-receiving countries and 𝑉 is the output in the importing country. Further information is provided in the paper: “Laird, S. and Yeats, A. (1986), “The UNCTAD Trade Policy Simulation Model: A Note on the Methodology, Data and Uses”, UNCTAD: Geneva”.

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country 𝑗 from country 𝑘. 𝑘 notates one (group) of foreign supplier(s) and 𝐾

notates other (group) of foreign supplier(s). The summation considers only

across country group 𝑘 or 𝐾, not across product 𝑖 or importer 𝑗 (Laird and

Yeats, 1986, p.1 and pp. 20-23).

This analysis is accessed in TINA is by clicking the “simulate tariff

stimulation” button or “Tariff Simulation” at the top of the page. The first

step is to select the interested commodities from the negotiation list. In the

example, all products in the offensive list are selected. Then, there is a table

of selected products with options for current and future tariffs. By clicking

“Current tariff”, the products which passed the criteria and have a non-zero

tariff are listed first.

Three advanced options for supply elasticity, substitution elasticity, and

import demand elasticity are available as well. The supply elasticity

measures the responsiveness of supply from the exporter to price the

exporter faces, calculated as the percentage increase in supply given a one

percent increase in price. The supply elasticity can either be positive6 or

infinite7. TINA sets an infinite supply elasticity by default just for simplicity.

Users can adjust this with specific interests. The second and the third

elasticities follow the Armington assumption, which states that the import

country imports different and not perfect substitutable varies of a good from

different exporters. The import country will first set total demands for a good

with respect to a general price index and then determine the spending on

each variety of this good. Thus, the import elasticity measures the

responsiveness of overall imports to the price index and the substitution

elasticity measures the level of responsiveness of demand to relative price

(Graham et al., 2018, pp. 24-25). The values of import demand elasticity for

over 180 economies are estimated according to Utoktham et al. (2020) using

state-of-the art estimation techniques and cannot be changed in TINA.

After the submission of settings page from Screen 14 is the results in Screen

15. In the example of trade between Bangladesh and India, there are two

commodities posed tariffs currently among 159 products in total. As the

result, liberalization of tariffs of these two goods can create trade amount to

US$ 554.71k for Bangladesh and an 21.23% increase of import of these

goods by India. In addition, TINA shows the precise changes of trade values

for liberalization of tariffs. For the product “Nickel”, removing current tariffs

leads to an increase of trade value for 511,954 US$. Moving the mouse on to

the button shows the amount of trade creation and trade diversion

calculated with above functions. Other countries which are affected by tariff

liberalization between Bangladesh and India are listed by clicking the button

in the last column. As showed in Screen 16, there are 21 economies affected

6 For example, an increase in the price leads to an increase in the number of exports. 7 With infinite supply elasticity, the exporter is willing to sell any number of products at any given prices.

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from United Arab Emirates for a decrease of export by 17,171 US$ to Oman

by 29 US$.

Screen 40: Settings of Tariff Simulation

Screen 41: Result of Tariff SimulationScreen 42: Settings of Tariff Simulation

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Screen 43: Result of Tariff Simulation

Screen 44: Trade Diversion Impacts on Commodity 750300Screen 45: Result of Tariff Simulation

Screen 46: Trade Diversion Impacts on Commodity 750300

Screen 47: Preference Loss SimulationScreen 48: Trade Diversion Impacts on Commodity 750300

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IV. Preference Loss Simulation

Back to Screen 3, TINA also uses the partial equilibrium analysis tool to

determine the effects on trade volume and trade diversion of tariff increase

(For example, the LDC graduation can lead to an increase of tariffs). Click

the button “Simulate Preference Loss” in Screen 3, TINA moves to Screen

17.

As showed in this page, Bangladesh currently has bilateral trade agreements

with four Asia-Pacific economies: China, India, South Korea, and Sri Lanka.

Followed by several regional or bloc trade agreements which Bangladesh

also involves in. Users can choose more than one agreement simultaneously

to investigate the impact of preferential loss. Moreover, same advanced

settings as in tariff liberalization are available as well.

For illustration, all preferences to Bangladesh are withdrawn and the results

are showed in Screen 18. In summary, without the preferential treatments

Bangladesh would loss US$ 21.15 Billion, which represents 46.54% of total

imports from Bangladesh. 1907 commodities and 12906 commodity flow of

different products between different trade partners are influenced. The

complete list of affected commodities is shown below and downloadable.

Users can check values and percentage changes precisely within the list. By

default, the table is listed in descending order of total gain or loss ($). The

most affected products for Bangladesh are T-shirts, Trousers, and Jerseys

etc. In the market aspect, Bangladesh would lose most exports to Germany

and France for more than 84% of current value. India would reduce imports

from Bangladesh by over 22%. However, if Bangladesh would have signed

FTA with India, it would not lose this part of its exports and all related

products are listed in the next table by clicking button. As showed in

Screen 19, this table contains basic information about each affected product

and the prediction of results of losing preferences. Column 4 and 5 show that

tariffs change from 0% currently to new MFN tariffs for each product and

resulting trade loss and trade diversion are in column 6 and 7. For instance,

the tariff of Fabrics (HS-Code: 531010) would raise 10% and lead to a

96.44% decrease of current trade value from Bangladesh. Users can also

download the table to explore the effects further.

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Screen 49: Preference Loss Simulation

Screen 50: Result of Loss of Preferential TreatmentScreen 51: Preference Loss Simulation

Screen 52: Result of Loss of Preferential Treatment

Screen 53: Affected Trade Flows in SimulationScreen 54: Result of Loss of Preferential Treatment

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V. Latest Developments

As discussed with many trade negotiators and economists, it would be useful

to investigate which provisions are common in previous Free Trade

Agreements of trade partners. Because it is the preliminary step for trade

negotiation and very labor-intensive, the next step to develop TINA is to

automate numerical analysis. According to Allee, T. & Elsig, M. (2019), 70%

of the text of different trade agreements is identical. As the result, there is

value in a tool to compare which texts and provisions across FTAs are

common in order to help the conduction of trade analysis. Once the module

passes the beta testing, this user guide will be amended.

Screen 55: Affected Trade Flows in Simulation

Page 22: USER GUIDE AND EXPLANATORY NOTE FOR TINA - ESCAP

Final Draft – 20 Jan 2021 - Version 1 – For review and comments

21

VI. Literature

Allee, T. and Elsig, M. (2019), “Are the Contents of International Treaties

Copied and Pasted? Evidence from Preferential Trade Agreements”,

International Studies Quarterly, 63(3), 603-613.

Bacchetta, M., Beverelli, C., Cadot, O., Fugazza, M., Grether, J., Helble, M.,

Nicita, A. and Piermartini, R. (2016), “A Partial Guide to Trade Policy

Analysis”, UNCTAD and WTO publications.

Graham, L., Kravchenko, A., Ratna, R., Mikic, M. (2018), “A simple analytical

method using trade and tariff data for identifying an offensive list when

negotiating a free trade agreement: An example of Sri Lanka-China free

trade agreement negotiations”, Trade Investment and Innovation, ESCAP

Working Paper Series.

Laird, S. and Yeats, A. (1986), “The UNCTAD Trade Policy Simulation Model:

A Note on the Methodology, Data and Uses”, UNCTAD: Geneva.

Manzano, G. (2014), “An Analysis of the Philippine Offensive and Defensive

Interests in the Non-agricultural Sector: Inputs to the Philippine-European

Union Free Trade Agreement”, Philippine Institute for Development Studies,

Discussion Paper Series No. 2014-04.

Utoktham, C., Kravchenko, A. and Duval, Y. (2020), “New global estimates of

import demand elasticities: a technical note”, ESCAP Report.

UNCTAD and WTO (2012), “Chapter 5. Partial Equilibrium Trade Policy

Simulation in A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis”, UNCTAD & WTO:

Geneva.