Useful Macro Graphs - Stanford Universitychadj/Chad-UsefulGraphs.pdfUseful Macro Graphs Charles I....

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Useful Macro Graphs Charles I. Jones Stanford GSB January 12, 2015 Many of these graphs are updated versions of graphs in the Short-Run section of my Macroeconomics textbook (W.W. Norton, 2014). Others are just graphs that I find useful in my teaching.| Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 1

Transcript of Useful Macro Graphs - Stanford Universitychadj/Chad-UsefulGraphs.pdfUseful Macro Graphs Charles I....

Page 1: Useful Macro Graphs - Stanford Universitychadj/Chad-UsefulGraphs.pdfUseful Macro Graphs Charles I. Jones Stanford GSB January 12, 2015 Many of these graphs are updated versions of

Useful Macro Graphs

Charles I. Jones

Stanford GSB

January 12, 2015

Many of these graphs are updated versions of graphs in the Short-Run

section of my Macroeconomics textbook (W.W. Norton, 2014). Others are just

graphs that I find useful in my teaching.|

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 1

Page 2: Useful Macro Graphs - Stanford Universitychadj/Chad-UsefulGraphs.pdfUseful Macro Graphs Charles I. Jones Stanford GSB January 12, 2015 Many of these graphs are updated versions of

Fig 9.3: U.S. Economic Fluctuations

Year

Short−run output, Ytilde

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

−8%

−7%

−6%

−5%

−4%

−3%

−2%

−1%

0

+1%

+2%

+3%

+4%

+5%

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 2

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Fig 9.4: Change in U.S. Employment

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

Year

Monthly change in employment (percent)

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 3

Page 4: Useful Macro Graphs - Stanford Universitychadj/Chad-UsefulGraphs.pdfUseful Macro Graphs Charles I. Jones Stanford GSB January 12, 2015 Many of these graphs are updated versions of

Fig 10.2: The Fed Funds Rate

Year

Percent

2000 2005 2010 20150

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 4

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Fig 10.6: U.S. Employment

Year

Millions

2000 2005 2010 2015128

130

132

134

136

138

140

142

Source: Federal Reserve Economic DataChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 5

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Fig 10.7: U.S. Economic Fluctuations since 2000

Year

Short−run output, Ytilde

2000 2005 2010 2015−8%

−7%

−6%

−5%

−4%

−3%

−2%

−1%

0

+1%

+2%

+3%

+4%

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 6

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Fig 10.8: U.S. Unemployment Rate

Year

Percent

2000 2005 2010 20153

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Source: Federal Reserve Economic DataChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 7

Page 8: Useful Macro Graphs - Stanford Universitychadj/Chad-UsefulGraphs.pdfUseful Macro Graphs Charles I. Jones Stanford GSB January 12, 2015 Many of these graphs are updated versions of

The U.S. Employment-Population Ratio

Year

Percent

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201555

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Down from 63 to 58

V versus ∪

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 8

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Fig 10.10: Inflation in the U.S.

Year

Percent

Excluding food and energy

All items

2000 2005 2010 2015−2

−1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Dec 2007 = 2.4%

Dec 2010 = 0.6%

Nov 2014 = 1.7%

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 9

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Forecasts of CPI Inflation, 1 Year and 10 Years Ahead

Forecast for 10 years ahead

Forecast for 1 year ahead

Year

Percent

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

1

2

3

4

5

Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, FRB PhiladelphiaChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 10

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Commodity Prices over the Long Run

Source: Economist, “Resource prices” Oct 14th 2011.

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 11

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Real GDP per Person in the United States

Year

Real GDP per person (2007Q4=100)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201530

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 12

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Real GDP per Person – Current Recession

Year

Real GDP per person (2007Q4=100)

2000 2005 2010 201588

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 13

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Real GDP per Employee – Current Recession

Year

GDP per Employee

2000 2005 2010 201588

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 14

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The Beveridge Curve (2010 Nobel Prize in Economics)

Source: BLS JOLTS HighlightsChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 15

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OECD Outlook: Growth in Real GDP per Person

Source: OECD Economic Outlook, November 2014.

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 16

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World Outlook: Real GDP Growth

Source: OECD Economic Outlook, November 2014.

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 17

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OECD Outlook: Forecast Errors

Source: OECD Economic Outlook, November 2014.

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 18

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Dropping the Fed Funds rate to zero

Year

Percent

2000 2005 2010 20150

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 19

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Risk spreads in interbank lending

TED Spread: difference between the 3-month LIBORrate and the 3-month U.S. treasury yield

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP:IND

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 20

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Fig 14.1: Ten Year Bond Spreads

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20141

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Year

BAA Corporate Bond Yield

10−Year Treasury Yield

Spread

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 21

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Percent

Actual fed funds rate

Taylor Rule prediction

2000 2005 2010 2015−2

0

2

4

6

8

Short−run output

2000 2005 2010 2015−8

−6

−4

−2

0

+2

Core CPI inflation

2000 2005 2010 2015

1

2

3

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 22

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Fig 14.8: The Fed’s Use of Unconventional Policies

Source: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/credit_easing/index.cfm

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 23

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The Fed’s Stunning Use of Unconventional Policies

Source: MarketRealist.comChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 24

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The S&P 500 Stock Price Index (real)

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

80

160

320

640

1280

2560

Year

Real Stock Price Index (ratio scale)

Source: Robert Shiller, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 25

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Bubbles in the stock market?

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Year

P/E Ratio

Average = 16.3

Source: Robert Shiller, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htmChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 26

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Bubbles in housing prices?

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

100

120

140

160

180

200

Year

Real Home Price Index (1953=100, ratio scale)

Decline of 35.7 percent

peak to trough

Source: Robert Shiller, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 27

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World Housing Prices (The Economist, August 2014)

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 28

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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

5

10

20

40

80

Year

Per capita GDP (US=100)

United States

Japan

Western Europe

Brazil

Russia

China

India

Sub−Saharan Africa

Source: Author’s calculations using Penn World Tables

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 29

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The Dynamics of Catch-Up Growth

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

5

10

20

40

80 100

JapanSouth Korea

Taiwan

ChinaIndia

Years since start of rapid growth

GDP per person (US=100)

Source: Author’s calculations using Penn World TablesChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 30

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The Euro Area Crisis: Ten Year Bond Yields

1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Percent

Germany

Spain

Italy

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 31

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Unit Labor Costs in Europe

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201295

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

Year

Index (2000=100)

Greece

Germany

Spain Italy

France

Source: FRED

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 32