Use of Statistical Techniques in Market Research An overview.
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Transcript of Use of Statistical Techniques in Market Research An overview.
What is market research?
Essentially analysing peoples relationships to brands/products/policy
FMCG/Services/social policy Two components:
• Qualitative
• Quantitative
• Both do the ‘same’ thing
• build models
Broad brush strokes
Who do you want to talk to? Has someone else/you talked to the
above? Why do you want to talk to them? How will this information be used?
Examples
Poll survey – eg. Colmar Brunton Poll Market segmentation
• Can I simplify thinking about my customers into easier to understand segments
Customer satisfaction studies• What should I change (and how) my
customers experience of this service
Colmar Brunton Poll
Sampling – talk to eligible voters Sample needs to be representative Needs to be done in 1-4 days CATI interviewing used Question wording very important
RELEASED: Sunday 5th November 2008 POLL CONDUCTED: Evenings of 1st-5th October 2007 inclusive SAMPLE SIZE: N = 1010, Eligible VotersSAMPLE SELECTION: Random nationwide selection using a type of stratified sampling
to ensure the sample includes the correct proportion of people in urban and rural areas.
SAMPLE ERROR: Based on the total sample of 1010 Eligible Voters, the maximum sampling error estimated is plus or minus 2.8%, expressed at the 95% confidence level.
METHOD: Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing).WEIGHTING: The data has been weighted to Department of Statistics Population
Estimates to ensure it is representative of the population in terms of age, gender, and household size.
REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are weighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 3.5% which are reported to 1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers except those less than 1% which are reported to 1 decimal place.
METHODOLOGY The party vote question has been asked unprompted as at February 1997.
One News Colmar Brunton poll
One News Colmar Brunton poll
Party Support“Under MMP you get two votes.
One is for a political party and is called a party vote.The other is for your local M.P. and is called an electorate vote.”
Party Vote*
“Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party.
Which political party would you vote for?”IF DON’T KNOW –
“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”
Segmenting your market
Segmentation Identify segmentation bases and segment the market. Develop profiles of resulting segments.
Targeting Evaluate attractiveness of each segment. Select target segments.
Positioning Identify possible positioning concepts for each target segment. Select, develop, and communicate the chosen concept.
U.S. SME Lifestyle Segmentation Example
Segment Definition
Avg line of credit balance ($000)
Projected avg borrowings next 12
month ($000)Top Borrowing Needs
Bolting start-ups Less than 3 years old; sales over $1 million
90 225 Working capital management
Young laggards 4-10 years old; no or flat sales growth
125 50 Facility expansion
Mature cash cows 10+ years old; moderate sales growth
175 140 Equipment financing
Experienced expanders
10+ years old; high sales growth
675 200 Equipment financing; facility expansion
Segmenting your market
Techniques used (of many)• Factor analysis to reduce dimensions
• Cluster analyses to create ‘segments• Fastclus algorithm very popular
• A difficult process
• Needs much direction form experienced ‘segmentors’
• Discrimination techniques used to place future observations into segments
Customer Satisfaction Studies
Thinking firstly about the service you received from (top secret). I am going to read you some statements about this service and as I read you each statement, please give your opinion using a five-point scale where 1 is extremely dissatisfied and 5 extremely satisfied
(read, rotate (start at x). write in (one digit) per statement)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with:.
... everything being kept straightforward
... being kept in touch while the claim was being processed
... the general manner and attitude of the staff you dealt with
... your claim being dealt with promptly
... being treated fairly
Importance Index by Means
prompt
fairly
kept in touch
straightforward
manner/attitude
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
3.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6
performance (means)
Imp
ort
ance
ind
exPresentation of results
Strengths
Maintain or divertSecondary drivers
Concern
Satisfaction studies
How do you measure importance?? Correlation fine but misses relationships
between Xs MLR bad as assumes X’s uncorrelated PCR used – regression on principal
components etc… Other solutions include CART
New product/pricing studies
What new features need to be included/added
What price are most customers prepared to pay?
How do my competitors’ prices affect my share of the market
Heineken Steinlager Stella Artois
Other premium beers
Export Gold
Please indicate which of the following you would buy if these were the prices per dozen:
$22.95
Other mainstream beers
$18.95
$20.95
$14.95
19.95 $13.95
SCENARIO 1SCENARIO 1
Amstel
$18.95
New product/pricing studies
Techniques used: Experiments designs
• Main effects/interactions
Choice modelling• Multinomial logistic regression
• Survival analysis
Actual Tarps
How advertising is modelled...How advertising is modelled...
New
5-10% decay in recall/week
How advertising is modelled...
Give TARPS a memory = Adstock• Via exponential smoothing
Linear model on Adstock vs ECT intercept = long term memory slope = return /unit Adstock Once happy can use for scheduling…
Major points
Constrained optimisation
The problems are both stimulating and demanding
Interpretation is everything