Use of PAGASA Products and Services · PDF file18.11.2016 · Rice Watch and Action...
Transcript of Use of PAGASA Products and Services · PDF file18.11.2016 · Rice Watch and Action...
Use of PAGASA Products and ServicesRice Watch and Action Network (R1)
Presented at the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum, Nov 18, 2016
Rice Watch and Action Network
• Network of NGOs
• Formed in 2004
• Policy Advocacy and Research (i.e. agri-related, fair trade, cc, participatory budgeting and budget tracking, etc)
• Assisting LGUs in CC Action Planning and in implementation of a DRR-CCA project
Communities should have access to climate info/warnings and
agri/fish livelihoods risk management advise
Diversified income sources
Insured and with Access to Emergency Support Services
Utilize sustainable, ecological and proven and affordable
farm/livelihood technologies
Organized and with Community Resiliency Plans
Community Resiliency Framework
Programs
Multi-Stakeholder PartnershipLocal
Governments
Climate-resiliency Field School Implementing LGUs
Calasiao PangasinanGuimba, Nueva Ecija
Munoz, NE
Castilla, SorsogonSorsogon City
Sta.Magdalena
Jabonga Agusan
Alamada North Cotabato
Pigcawayan North Cotabato
Dumingag Zambo
Isulan, SKLambayong SKKoronadal City
Tubigon Bohol
Daanbantayan, CebuBantayan, Cebu
Madridejos, Cebu
Batad Iloilo
San Luis Aurora, Gen.Nakar, Quezon
Pila Laguna
Catbalogan,SamarDolores Samar,
Ormoc City, McArthur,LeyteBasey, Samar,
Salcedo, SamarMarabut, SamarLawaan, Samar
Irosin, SorsogonGerona Tarlac
Esperanza, SKBagumbayan SK
Program Objectives Provide early warning service to help farmers manage
climate/weather-related risks;
determine LGU’s disaster thresholds by regularly correlating local climate data and community impacts.
Generate climate information needed to inform LGU’s CC action planning;
Enhance farmers/fishers knowledge on climate variability and anticipatory abilities to inform livelihood decisions;
Learn and practice various sustainable methods of farming/livelihood and have access to a variety of resiliency strategies;.
(Permanent) Climate Services to be Performed by LGUs
(1) Local Weather Observation
(2) Farm Weather Advisory Creation
(3) Dissemination of Advisories
(4) Weather and Impacts Benchmarking
PAGASA Services Accessed• Instrument calibration
• Installation of weather monitoring instruments
• PAGASA experts to train LGUs, do local climate fora, provide expertise in climate change action planning and other activities (i.e. El Nino Contingency Planning)
Climate Information for
Risk Assessment and Adaptation Planning
Climate Profiles of the Area
Climate Change Projections
Day to day recording
• Historical Annual Rainfall 10-20 years
• TC records directly passing the area and within 50 kms
• Normal rainfall per month
• Average rainfall per month during EN
• Average rainfall per month during LN
2050 rainfall projections
2050 temp projection
Weather
Community impacts
List of Tropical Cyclones which crossed
TARLAC from 1948-2013
YEAR MONTH TYPE TC_NAME PAR_BEG PAR_END
1948 7 TD ROSE 7/23/1948 7/26/1948
1952 8 TY LOIS 8/22/1952 8/26/1952
1953 10 TY BET 10/26/1953 10/29/1953
1956 11 TY LUCILLE 11/13/1956 11/19/1956
1960 6 TY OLIVE 6/23/1960 6/28/1960
1961 9 TS RUBY 9/21/1961 9/22/1961
1964 12 TY NANING 12/11/1964 12/16/1964
1966 11 TS UDING 11/18/1966 11/23/1966
1968 11 TY TOYANG 11/26/1968 11/29/1968
1972 6 TY KONSING 6/23/1972 6/26/1972
1972 9 TD NITANG 9/8/1972 9/12/1972
1974 11 TY BIDANG 11/24/1974 11/29/1974
1977 7 TY ELANG 7/16/1977 7/18/1977
1977 11 TY UNDING 11/10/1977 11/16/1977
1978 9 TS UDING 9/22/1978 9/23/1978
1979 10 TD SISANG 10/1/1979 10/3/1979
1980 6 TD ISANG 6/30/1980 7/1/1980
1980 7 TD MARING 7/15/1980 7/17/1980
1981 11 TY ANDING 11/22/1981 11/27/1981
1985 7 TD ELANG 7/4/1985 7/6/1985
1985 10 TY SALING 10/15/1985 10/19/1985
1987 8 TY ISING 8/12/1987 8/19/1987
1988 10 TY UNSANG 10/21/1988 10/26/1988
1989 11 TY UNSING 11/16/1989 11/23/1989
1993 9 TY KADIANG 9/30/1993 10/7/1993
1993 10 TD EPANG 10/6/1993 10/12/1993
1994 6 TS GADING 6/21/1994 6/23/1994
1998 10 TY LOLENG 10/15/1998 10/24/1998
1999 10 TS RENING 10/15/1999 10/17/1999
2002 7 TD JUAN 7/18/2002 7/23/2002
2008 6 TY FRANK 6/18/2008 6/23/2008
2013 10 TY SANTI 10/8/2013 10/13/2013
Irosin’s Climate Profile
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Normal rainfall(1981-2010
13.8 13.2 16.2 42.9 164 239.9 369.4 380.6 308.5 191.1 90 34.9
2050 climate projections
0 0 0 (3%) (38)%
11% 10% 28% 31% (12)%
(12)%
30%
2015 reading
5.6 0.2 0 31.6 94.2 87.2 269 234 204.8 210.8 0 128.6
Integrating past, future and present to understand
possible climate change impacts to livelihoods and
communities
Gerona, Tarlac
DESCRIPTION OF EVENT
(SOME EXAMPLES
AWS READING
(AND OTHER DATA
SOURCES)
HAZARDS THAT MAY
RESULT OUT OF THIS
DESCRIBING HAZARD IMPACTS
INTENSE RAINS but no typhoon
RAINFALLWATER LEVEL MARKERS
(Exposure)FLOODINGLANDSLIDE/SOIL EROSIONPEST OCCURENCES
(sensitivity)LOCATION OF FLOODED AREAS NOS. OF AFFECTED
• IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS ESP AGRI/FISH PRODUCTION
• IMPACTS TO ASSETS• IMPACTS TO ENVIRONMENT
Tropical cyclone WINDRAINFALL READINGWATER LEVEL MARKERS
(exposure)Destructive windLANDSLIDE/SOIL EROSIONSTORM SURGEFLOODING
(sensitivity)LOCATION OF AFFECTEDNUMBER OF AFFECTED
• IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS ESP AGRI/FISH PRODUCTION
• IMPACTS TO ASSETS• IMPACTS TO ENVIRONMENT
HIGH TEMP TEMP (exposure)EXTREME HEATTRIGGER PEST OUTBREAKS
(sensitivity)NUMBER OF AFFECTED
• IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS ESP AGRI/FISH PRODUCTION
• IMPACTS TO ASSETS• IMPACTS TO ENVIRONMENT
SLOW ONSET TIDE MARKERS (exposure)
AWS DATA 2015 (WITH EL NIÑO FORECAST)2015 AWS DATA JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC
GERONA NORMALS (AWS)RAINFALL (mm) 5.6 0.2 0 31.6 94.2 87.2 269 234 204.8 210.8 0 128.6MIN. TEMP. (°C) 17.9 17.1 16.8 20.1 23.2 23.3 22.3 23 23.2 22.7 19.8 20.1HIGH TEMP. (°C) 32.1 32.5 35.3 37.9 38.4 37.6 35.6 36 36 34.9 34.9 34.6WIND SPEED (M/S) MAX 12.1 14.3 9.8 13 14.8 20.6 12.1 14.3 13.4 24.1 12.9 13WIND SPEED (M/S) AVE. 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.9NO. OF DAYS W/ RAIN 1 1 0 2 15 16 24 22 22 12 0 8
MAX. RAINY DAY FOR 1 0 0 1 1 4 9 11 7 2 0 3THE MONTHHIGHEST DAILY RAINFALL (mm) 5.6 0.2 0 31.4 21 20.4 49.2 27.6 39.4 128.2 0 88.2
DATES OF RAIN Jan.18 Feb.15 n/a Apr.21 May.26 jun.11 jul.17 Aug.22Sept.1
9 Oct.18 n/a Dec.18
EXTREME 2015
date and time observed
reported community impact
description of extreme event no. of affected farmers
climate data record
March 27,28,30, 2015
livestock and human stress
extreme temp minimal ave. 37.5 °C for 3day
May 2,2015 livestock stress extreme temp minimal 38.4 °C
May 6,2015 livestock stress extreme temp minimal 37.6°C
july,5-18,2015 flooding typhoon "Falcon" signal#1 200 farmers 5day rain with 30-50mmdaily
Oct.18,2015 flooding,damaged crops&infra
Typhoon "Lando" signal# 2 2,400 farmers/ 200 families
2,400 farmers/200 families
160kph wind w/ 120mm rain/5h
Dec.16,2015 flooding,damaged crops
Typhoon " NONA" SIGNAL #1 400 farmers rainfall of 128mm in 5hours
LGUs Issue Farm-weather AdvisoriesPAGASA providing weather/climate forecast needs for early warning purposes
• Seasonal climate
outlook (4-6 months)
• 10 day forecast
• Extreme events
warning/forecast
LGU providing analysis on possible impacts and recommended advise to communities
exposed livelihoods in the area for the forecast period
Provide an idea on how forecast may negatively impact on these livelihoods (climate-livelihood relationship/phenology)
risks management ideas or options that are sustainable, cheap and climate friendly solutions
Utilization of Climate Information for Risk Management
________ Climate Info Center_______, 20__
Gen Weather Condition for 10 days
Gen.Weather
Expected TC
Forecast Rainfall
Ave. SoilMoisture
Temp. Range (in C)
Date ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
___ ___ ___ ___ ___
10-Day (Day-time) Weather Forecast/Advisory
Legend:
Exposed Livelihoods
Stage Weather-related Risks to Livelihoods
Risks Management Advice
Wind Force Expected Wave Height
Sea Condition Advice to Coastal Communities
Gale Warning Advisory for Today ________
Livelihoods' Risks Management Advisory
EXTREME EVENT WARNING
(for TC/EN/LN/drought, etc)
Early warning message brought to you by your
Local Government
With support from
Sunny and clear
Patches of clouds
partly-cloudy
Almost clear
Overcast Overcast, slight rains
Patches of clouds/slight rains
Partly cloudy, slight rain
partly cloudy, showers
Patches of clouds, showers
Overcast with showers
Partly cloudy, slight rains, thunder
Patches of clouds,showers, thunder
Overcast, with rains
Overcast, rains with thunder
Prepared by: __________________________________ / _______________ Approved : ______________________ / _______________
Dissemination Strategies
Weather Boards
Use in AESA during resiliency field school sessions /
1. Community analysis on possible risks of weather to their crops/livelihoods
2. Collective discussion of risks management measures farmers can take thru the weekly AESA
Shared on local radio programs
Regional Climate Forum and El Nino Contingency Planning ASA C Data
J F M A M J J A S O N D Annual
Normal
Rainfall (1980-
2010)
89.5 83 129.9 151.7 277.1 323.9 322.6 243.7 262.1 281.4 220.7 132.8 2,518
Ave. EN
Rainfall
75 51.9 87.2 86.1 228.1 341.8 425.6 257.3 328.6 232.6 152.1 88.2 2354.5
2014 actual 91.5 49.8 97.4 50.6 171.5 209.7 286.5 250.5 218.6 247.3 132.4 77.4 1883.2
2015 actual 90.4 42.7 9.6 63.6 73.9 165.7 156.7 221.7 302.5 109.8 139 35.8 1,411.40
2016
Notes:Bright red- values are lower than normal Blue- higher than normal
El Nino Contingency Planning (Nov 2015): Mitigating the Potential Impacts
Areas Livelihoods At risk Potential Lossesif no mitigation is done
Estimated Budget Needed (in Mil PH)
Existing LGU Resources
Sta Magdalena Rice, vege 19 M 2.440 million 250,000
Castilla Rice, corn, rootcrops,livestock,vege, fish
5,358 MT + 60 MT +30 MT)
36.5
Prieto Diaz 9 million 8.8 mil
Nabua Rice, corn, gabi, cucumber, mungbean,bayo
1,410 has (rice),600 (corn), 140(cu), 60 (Gabi) 60 (sesame) 80 (mungb)
70 has (eggplant),
8.050 BUB
Libmanan IA Rice of 132 members (76 has
114,000
Ocampo Rice, corn 151 million 200,000 (short term)1.9 million (long term
95,000
Bula (Pecuaria) 10.8 mil 2.2 million
Canaman Rice, fish 31.5 Million 6.000
Gainza rice 3.200 million 650,000
Baao Up.rice, low rice, vege, corn,ruminant, poultry
CamNorteCoopFed Rice, fish, vege, corn - 1.8 M -
TOTAL 224.6 Million 68.54 million
Suggested Solutions Crop-based Fisheries
Immediate Solutions Medium-term to Long term Immediate Solutions
Planting of early maturing varieties SWIP Look for other fish species not sensitive to increased temp (mudfish)
Select drought tolerant variety/upland variety Continue varietal trials to select most appropriate seeds to different types of climate
Provision of banca
Provision of inputs (seeds, fertilizers, seedlings,
Promotion of organic farming Engage in salt-making
Plant corn, mungbean instead of rice Adoption of organic ordinance
Crop insurance coverage Construction of additional irrigation
Distribution of STWs, additional pumps Post harvest facilities
Alternative livelihood (Food processing,
Use of drought resistant varieties
IEC activities on EN preparedness
Provision of technical assistance
Climate based EWS system/ Continuosrunning of CrFS program/climate forum/SMS warning
Water conservation and management such as SRI, water rationing
Close monitoring of crop
Coordinate with other actors (DA RFU, BFAR, NGO-R1
Financial assistance
BENEFITS AND IMPACTS
Benefits According to Users
Program Impact
Together, the forecasts, advice and training received, has generated substantial improvements in productivity, reduced costs and there is some indication of damage avoided, especially for crop production activities.
Promotion of Sustainable Farming Technologies
Livelihood Diversification in CRFS Areas
O r g a n i c F E R T I L I Z E R P R O D U C T I O N I N M O S T C r F S
S I T E S
Rice Milling Services
Coffee Roasting and Blending Base Feeds and Azola for Livestock Feeds
Community Resiliency Planning and Municipal Organisation Set-up
Community Organising and Social Enterprise Setup
• Community Produced
• Promotes consumption of healthier food
• Adds on to family incomes
• Community Produced
• Promotes safer food production
• Contributes to increased autonomy of farmers/rural communities
Helping Communities Access Negotiated and Mainstream Markets for their Products
Community- supported agricultureraising community awareness on the type of agriculture WE should support to promote healthy living
Community-supported agriculture is an alternative economic model of (resiliency) agriculture and food distribution.
Network of individuals, including institutions supporting local farmers and sharing in the risks and benefits of (safe) food production
Multiple Improvements in Assets and Capacities to Improve Resiliency
• Main impacts. Increased efficiency of inputs, labor, marketing resources. Increased Access to markets and improved product prices thru the use of the CrFS logo
Financial Capacity
• Other impacts. Protected houing avoiding damage. Protected other assetsPhysical Assets
• Main Impacts. Increased access to understanding of early warning and forecasts. Increased understanding of long term climate changeHuman Capacity
• Main Impacts. Increased social capital from group formation and operation. Better networks with LGU and PAGASA as sources of advise and support. Other Impacts. Increased linkage between CrFS groups.
Social Capital
• Main Impacts. Increased diversity of improved resilient varieties. Increased on farm productivity. Increased soil quality thru the use of organic fertilizers. Increased livestok health. Other Impacts. Avoided crop damages
Natural Assets
Benefits to LGUs
Local government became more attuned to the climate-appropriate needs of its farming clientele;
Monitors climate change as it happens–-thus allow local governments to understand what extreme events would mean to them and the community;
Improved extension service and relations with farming community;
• There is better appreciation for science and PAGASA’s services at the local level;
• PAGASA’s services have also become more relevant and responsive
Thank you