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Use of climate data for risk reduc1on – CCA and DRR

perspec1ve BarbaraChimaniBarbaraChimani

h:p://www.ryylxjw.com/agriculture-wallpapers/41829438.html

-2.01760

www.wallpapersxl.com

h:p://www.desktopimages.org

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlicken

•  Concepts to adapta1on to climate change need high quality, high resolu1on climatological data

•  Funded by Federa1on of Austria and all provinces

•  Crea1on and Interpreta1on of high resolu1on climate informa1on on past, present and future and climate changes

Introduc0on

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenBackground:Observa0onalData

1kmgriddeddata:1961–2011

5 Parameter – daily values: •  precipita1on •  Temperature minimum/maximum

•  (global radia1on/sunshine dura1on)

1kmgriddeddata:1981–2000

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenBackground

EURO-Cordex:29groups,10RCMs,13GCMs(fromCMIP5)=>simula0onsin50kmresolu0on

simula0onsin12.5kmresolu0on

UsedinProject:12.5kmresolu0on

2representa0veconcentra0onpathways:RCP4.5:climateprotec0on-szenario/RCP8.5:businessasusual-szenario

each13models

(IPCC, 2014)

RCP8.5: ~4°C

RCP4.5: ~2,7°C

RCP2.6: >1,5°C

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenBackground:Modeldata

12.5 km

~1 km

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenBackground:climatechangeanduncertain0es

∆M

M1

M2

•  Calcula1on of climate means (M) and natural variability (NV) •  analyse changes 1986-2010 to 1961-1985 •  ∆M>NV à „significant“

past

Clim

atechangesignal

+

-0

Climatechangesignal:1971-2000to2021-20501971-2000to2071-2100

future

S<50% S>50%

Ü<80% nosignif.change Li:lemodelagreement

Ü>80% nosignif.change signif.change

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenClimateIndizes

temperature based precipitation based

radiation based

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenClimatechange:Past

meantemperature

median mean

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenClimatechange:Past

Precipita0onsum

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenClimatechange:Past

Mean precipitation intensity on days with precipitation

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenResults:Past

•  Increase in temperature and changes in temperature dependend climate indices aUer 1950, accelera1ng aUer 1980. regional and seasonal differences

•  Changes in temperature and temperature depending climate indices in many regions significant and consistent with long term signals..

•  Only small long-term changes in precipita1on since 1860, regionally strong fluctua1ons superimposed

•  Increase in annual precipita1on in Austria compared to 1961-1985 due to minimum around 1975.

•  Natural fluctua1ons in precipita1on bigger than possible current climate change signals.

•  Convec1ve events or other short term precipita1on extremes are not considered in these analyses.

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenGraphicExplana0onClim

atechangesignal

+

-

0

Median

q50

q10 q90

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenClimatechange:Future

near future

(2021-2050)

far future

(2071-2100)

q50

q10 q90

q50

q10 q90

q50

q10 q90

q50

q10 q90

meantemperature Ref:1971-2000

RCP4.5 RCP8.5

RCP4.5 RCP8.5

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenClimatechange:Future

q50

q10 q90

q50

q10 q90

q50

q10 q90

q50

q10 q90

far future

(2071-2100)

far future

(2071-2100)

RCP8.5 - winter RCP8.5 - summer

Precipita0onamount

RCP4.5 - year RCP8.5 - year

Ref:1971-2000

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenClimatechange:Future

q50

q10 q90

q50

q10 q90

q50

q10 q90

q50

q10 q90

near future

(2021-2050)

far futur

(2071-2100)

Precipita0onintensity

RCP4.5 RCP8.5

RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Ref:1971-2000

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenResults:Future

-  Near future: only small differences between szenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5)

-  Far future: greater differences between szenarios (especially for temperature)

*not significant; ** in mountains not significant

2071-2100 Climateprotec;onszenario(RCP4.5)

Business-as-usualszenario(RCP8.5)

Annualmeantemperature +2,3°C +4°C

Annualprecipita0onamount +7,1% +8,7%

Frostday(annual) -41,8days -70days

Hotdays(annual) +7days** +17,7days

Precipita0ondays +0,5days* +1,3days*

Dryepisodes(annual) -2,8days* +2,2days*

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlickenFactsheets

•  Forfederalprovincesandcommuni0es•  Climatechangeinforma0onformeantemperature,precipita0onamountandselectedclimateindices

FormatvorlagedesUnter0telmastersdurchKlicken

• DateavailableinCCCA-datacentere.g.forstudiesconcerningclimateadap0onanddisasterriskreduc0on

•  h:ps://www.ccca.ac.at/de/datenportal/•  h:ps://sandboxdc.ccca.ac.at/

• DataintegratedinGIS-systemsofthefederalprovinces

•  Factsheets(partly)availableviahomepageoffederalprovinces

Outlook