All remarks are off the record and not for attribution

The State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) organizes analytic exchanges to solicit the views of

nongovernmental specialists and to facilitate the exchange of views between these specialists and government officials.

The views expressed in the exchanges are solely those of the individuals and are not necessarily the views of INR or

the Department of State.

Sponsored by the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State and the National Intelligence Council

Venezuela’s Economic Options and Political Outlook for 2016

March 10, 2016

Room 1105

U.S. Department of State

2201 C Street, NW

Washington, DC

Agenda

Chaired by: James McElveen, U.S. Department of State

This Analytic Exchange will bring together political experts and economists to discuss the

economic and political outlook for Venezuela in 2016.

12:30 - 1:00 Registration

1:00 – 1:05 Welcome and Opening Remarks

David Tapia, National Intelligence Council

Howard Davis, U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Intelligence & Research

All remarks are off the record and not for attribution

The State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) organizes analytic exchanges to solicit the views of

nongovernmental specialists and to facilitate the exchange of views between these specialists and government officials.

The views expressed in the exchanges are solely those of the individuals and are not necessarily the views of INR or

the Department of State.

1:05 – 2:30 Economy: Options for 2016

Key questions: What are the most likely scenarios for Venezuela’s economy in

2016? Is there such a thing as “bottoming out”? What would a worst-case

scenario look like this year? Best-case? Will Venezuela make its debt payments

this year? What reforms, if any, seem most likely? What reforms would most

benefit the macroeconomic situation?

Leopoldo Avellan, Inter-American Development Bank

Russ Dallen, Latinvest

Tamara Herrera, Sintesis Financiera

2:30 - 2:45 Break

2:45 - 4:15 Politics: A Critical Year

Key questions: What are the key political issues facing Venezuela in 2016? What

are Maduro’s prospects? What factions divide the governing coalition? Who are

Maduro’s key allies and competitors? Likewise, what is the state of the opposition

coalition? Who are the power brokers in the Mesa Unidad Democrática (MUD)?

What will be the most important battles between the government and the

opposition? Do we expect massive protests? A recall referendum?

Jana Morgan, University of Tennessee

Francisco Toro, Caracas Chronicles

4:15 Closing Remarks: James McElveen

4:30 Adjournment

Sponsored by the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State

and the National Intelligence Council

Venezuela’s Economic Options and Political Outlook for 2016

March 10, 2016

Speaker Biographies

Leopoldo Avellan is the lead regional economist at the Country Department Andean Group of the

Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) in Washington, DC. Prior to joining the IDB, Dr.

Avellan was an associate professor of economics at the Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral

(ESPOL) in Guayaquil, Ecuador, where he taught undergraduate and graduate courses. He was

also a research economist at the Central Bank of Ecuador. He holds a doctorate in economics from

the University of Maryland, a Master of Science in economics from Pompeu Fabra-Barcelona

University and a Bachelor of Science in economics from ESPOL, Guayaquil. His research interests

lie in the fields of international finance, macroeconomics and applied econometrics, with a special

focus on emerging markets and oil producing countries.

Russ Dallen is a managing partner at international investment bank Caracas Capital and publisher

of the Latin American Herald Tribune. Previously, he worked as head of Latin American

operations for Oppenheimer & Co in Venezuela, was head of Venezuela’s Daily Journal, and

worked as a foreign correspondent for Newsweek in London and an editor of the Journal of

International Affairs in New York. Mr. Dallen has also written for the Daily Telegraph and the

Christian Science Monitor. He has held fellowships at a number of institutions, including

Columbia University, the United Nations Association of the USA, the European Community

Visitors Program, the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, and the Center for the Study of

the Presidency and Congress. He holds a master’s degree in law from Oxford University, a

diploma in international law from Nottingham University, and a bachelor’s degree in economics

and political science from the University of Mississippi. He has been author and contributing

author of four books, serves on the International Law Section of the New York State Bar

Association, and is a member of the Support Committee of Conciencia Activa Venezuela, a

foundation dedicated to rescuing and restoring ethical and moral values in Venezuelan society.

Howard Davis is director of the Office of Analysis for Western Hemisphere Affairs in the State

Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) and a member of the Senior Executive

Service. Within INR, he has served variously as the Bureau’s chief analyst for the Caribbean,

Mexico, and Central America, and as chief of the office’s Middle Americas-Caribbean Division.

Before joining INR, Mr. Davis was a foreign service officer, posted first as political officer to

Embassy Nairobi, then staff assistant to the counselor of the Department, and later desk officer for

Haiti and the Dominican Republic in the Office of Caribbean Affairs. He has a bachelor’s degree

in history from Yale College and a master’s in strategic intelligence from the National Defense

Intelligence College and teaches classes at the National Intelligence University.

Tamara Herrera Marrosu is managing director and chief economist of Síntesis Financiera, a

Caracas-based consulting firm, and a member of GlobalSource Partners, a global network of

independent emerging market economists. From 1991-1995, she established and

led the Center for Information and Analysis of Grupo Unión, then the fourth largest financial

group in Venezuela. She is member of the Economic Committee of the Venezuelan-American

Trade and Industry Chamber (Venamcham) and is often a guest speaker at meetings with

Venezuelan businesses and international investors. She has also collaborated with the research

teams at the Venezuelan Banking Association, Conindustria, Consecomercio and Fedecámaras.

From 1993 to 1994, she served as anchor of the television show Economy Day by Day, and she is

frequently interviewed on radio and television talk shows. Ms. Herrera has a bachelor’s degree in

economics in from the Universidad Central de Venezuela.

James McElveen is the division chief for South America analysis in the Department of State's

Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR). From 2007 to 2009, he served at the National Security

Council as a Director of National Intelligence fellow. Before joining INR in 1999, Dr. McElveen

served in the Department of State Historian's Office where he edited the Foreign Relations of the

United States volumes on Latin America during the first Nixon administration. Before joining the

Department of State, Dr. McElveen taught courses on Latin America and Europe at Washington

University in St. Louis, where he earned his doctorate in Latin American and European history in

1997.

Jana Morgan is associate professor of political science and chair of Latin American and

Caribbean studies at the University of Tennessee. Her research explores how patterns of economic,

social, and political marginalization undermine democratic institutions and outcomes. She is the

author of Bankrupt Representation and Party System Collapse (Penn State, 2011), which analyzes

Venezuelan party system decay and seven other cases of party system collapse and survival. The

book, which received the Latin American Studies Association's Van Cott Best Book Award,

demonstrates how party systems' inability to provide adequate linkages between society and the

state precipitate their collapse and create a path for challengers. Dr. Morgan’s research has been

published in numerous outlets, including the American Political Science Review, Comparative

Political Studies, and Latin American Research Review, and has been featured in the Washington

Post’s Monkey Cage blog and the London School of Economics’ American Politics and Policy

blog. Dr. Morgan holds doctoral and master’s degrees in political science from the University of

North Carolina at Chapel Hill and a bachelor’s degree in political science from Wheaton College.

David Tapia became National Intelligence Officer for the Western Hemisphere in July 2014.

Prior this assignment, Mr. Tapia served as a Latin America political analyst in the intelligence

community for nearly 20 years, first working Central and South American accounts, before turning

to cover region-wide trends beginning in 2007. In the course of his career, Mr. Tapia has provided

over 350 intelligence briefings to senior U.S. Government and foreign officials, drafted hundreds

of intelligence products, and received more than 30 awards for mentoring, teamwork, and analysis

of a wide range of regional topics. He has a bachelor’s degree in foreign service and a master’s

degree in Latin American studies from Georgetown University and speaks Spanish and

Portuguese.

Francisco Toro is a Venezuelan journalist, political scientist and blogger. He is founder and

executive editor of CaracasChronicles.com. For the past 17 years, he has covered Venezuela as a

consultant, analyst and journalist. From 1999 to 2003, he covered Venezuela as a freelance foreign

correspondent, reporting for the Washington Post, the New York Times and the Financial Times.

His work on Venezuela has also appeared in the New Republic, the Guardian, the Atlantic, as well

as on NPR and a long list of other major media outlets. Mr. Toro was previously editor of the

English language content at VenEconomy, Venezuela's leading bilingual business magazine. He

has also worked as a development consultant and writer in East Africa.