U.S. Solar Market Data 2009
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Transcript of U.S. Solar Market Data 2009
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U.S. Solar Market Data
Larry Sherwood
Sherwood Associates and IREC
IREC Annual Meeting
October 11, 2010
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Scope of Presentation
•! Photovoltaic and Solar Thermal
–!Focus on Grid-Connected PV
•! United States Market
•! Data through 2009
•! Some projections for 2010
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Grid-Connected
Photovoltaics
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Cumulative U.S. Grid-tied
Photovoltaic Installations
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
MW
-dc
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Capacity of Annual U.S.
Grid-Tied PV Installations
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2010 PV Installation Drivers
•! Federal incentives stable (but change at the end of 2010)
•! RPS and utility ITC
•! Stimulus funds
•! Lower module prices
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Capacity of Annual U.S.
Grid-Tied PV Installations
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Capacity of Annual U.S.
Grid-Tied PV Installs by Sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
Residential
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
Non-Residential
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
Utility
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Installations Larger than 10 MW
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
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U.S. PV Cost Trends
$-
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
2007 2008 2009 2010 future
Residential
Non-Residential
Based on California Solar Initiative data
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Grid-Tied PV Capacity by State
(2009 Installations)
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Cumulative Per Capita
Grid-Tied PV Installations
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
CA HI NJ NV CO AZ CT DE OR VT MA FL
W-dc per person
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Number of Annual
Grid-Tied PV Installations
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Concentrating Solar Power
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Concentrating Solar Power
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Concentrating Solar Power
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
MW
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Future for
Concentrating Solar Power
•!Thousands of MW Proposed
•!Several project will begin construction in 2010
•!Southwest & Florida
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Solar Heating and Cooling
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Capacity of Annual U.S.
Solar Hot Water+ Installations
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Solar Hot Water+ Capacity
by State
HI
CA
PRFL
AZ
Other
Based on analysis of EIA data for 2008
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Future for Solar Hot Water
•!Continued but moderate growth
•!More state and local incentives
•!Markets in all regions - best in areas with electric
hot water
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Annual Solar Pool Heating
Installations
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Annual Solar Pool Heating
Installations
FL
CA
AZ
Other
Based on analysis of EIA Data for 2008
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Future for
Solar Pool Heating
•!Market tied to market for swimming pools
•!Growth will require real estate market recovery in Florida and California
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www.irecusa.org
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Questions?