U.S. PREPS FOR EBOLA OUTBREAK:CASES MAY EXCEED 100,000 BYDECEMBER: “THE NUMBERS ARE REALLYSCARY”The deadly contagion continues to spread

Image Credits: Sebástian Freire / Flickr (Medical workers)

by MAC SLAVO | SHTFPLAN.COM | SEPTEMBER 2, 2014726 75 0

Though news on the Ebola v irus has been muted since two American health care workers wereadmitted to U.S.-based facilities last month, the deadly contagion continues to spread. According tothe World Health Organization more than 40% of all Ebola cases thus far hav e occurred in just thelast three months, suggesting that the v irus is continuing to build steam.

Phy sicist Alessandro Vespignani of Northeastern Univ ersity in Boston is one of sev eral researcherstry ing to figure out how far Ebola may spread and how many people around the world could beaffected. Based on his findings, there will be 10,000 cases by September of this y ear and it only getsworse from there.

(A model created by A lessandro V espignani and his colleagues suggests that, at its current

spread, Ebola may infect up to 10,000 people by September 24. Other models suggest up to 100,000

infected globally by December of this year. T he shaded area is the variability range.)

Extrapolating ex isting trends, the number of the sick and dy ing mounts rapidly from thecurrent toll—more than 3000 cases and 1500 deaths—to around 10,000 cases by September24, and hundreds of thousands in the months after that. “T he num bers are reallyscary ,” he say s—although he stresses that the model assumes control efforts aren’t steppedup. “We all hope to see this NOT happening,” Vespigani writes in an e-mail.

…

Vespignani is not the only one try ing to predict how the unprecedented outbreak willprogress. Last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that the number ofcases could ultimately exceed 20,000. And scientists across the world are scrambling tocreate computer models that accurately describe the spread of the deadly v irus. Not all ofthem look quite as bleak as Vespignani’s. But the modelers all agree that current efforts tocontrol the epidem ic are not enough to stop the deadly pathogen in its tracks.

…

“If the epidem ic in Liberia were to continue in this way until the 1st ofDecem ber, the cum ulativ e num ber of cases would exceed 100,000,” predictsAlthaus. Such long-term forecasts are error-prone, he acknowledges.

…

Vespignani has analy zed the likelihood that Ebola will spread to other countries. Using dataon millions of air trav elers and commuters, as well as mobility patterns based on data fromcensuses and mobile dev ices, he has built a model of the world, into which he can introduceEbola and then run hundreds of thousands of simulations. In general, the chance of furtherspread bey ond West Africa is small, Vespignani say s, but the risk grows with the scale ofthe epidem ic.

Ghana, the United Kingdom , and the United States are am ong the countriesm ost likely to hav e an introduced case, according to the m odel.

Source: Science Mag and WHO via Investment Watch

Though researchers and officials hope that this is “not happening,” the fact is that Ebola spread hasonly increased since it was first identified earlier this y ear. And now it is spreading to denselypopulated African cities like Lagos, Nigeria.

The Centers for Disease Control and US-based hospitals maintain that the likelihood of Ebola

spreading to the United States remains “extremely low,” but that hasn’t stopped them frompreparing infection control protocols because of the extremely high fatality rates associated withthose who contract the v irus.

Hospitals throughout Southern California are preparing for potential Ebola cases, ev en asthey seek to reassure patients and health care workers that the risk is v ery low.

…

Public health officials say with the right isolation and infection control procedures, allhospitals could safely handle a patient with Ebola without exposing staff or other patients.

“We hav e the infrastructure any way because we see these things on a daily basis. We seetuberculosis, influenza, potentially measles, and whooping cough,” said Dr. Zachary Rubin,medical director of clinical epidemiology and infection prev ention at UCLA. “Ev en thoughEbola is in the news, this is something we do day in and day out.”

The CDC’s Ebola recommendations for hospitals include an array of measures such as priv aterooms for patients, protectiv e cov erings for staff, and limiting use of needles as much aspossible to prev ent transmission.

…

“In the context of ov erall diseases, the likelihood of Ebola ev en coming to the U.S. or to UCIMedical Center is so extremely low, we just don’t expect it to happen,” Gohil said.

“Howev er, the fatalities are so high and the possibility of trav el in the global context is justenough that we hav e to prepare. One of the reasons y ou want to prepare is to reassure y ourstaff and y our patients that it’s perfectly handleable.”

Public health officials say with the right isolation and infection control procedures, allhospitals could safely handle a patient with Ebola without exposing staff or other patients.

Source: Los Angeles Register

Experts say the v irus doesn’t spread like the flu or measles because it is not airborne. Howev er,there are some indications that current strain of the Ebola v irus may be mutating. Last montha warning issued by the CDC claimed that infectious Ebola materials could be spread through the air.

The adv isory urges airline staff to prov ide surgical masks to potential Ebola v ictims in order“to reduce the number of droplets expelled into the air by talking, sneezing, or coughing.”

The CDC is also directing airline cleaning personnel to, “not use compressed air, whichmight spread infectious material through the air.” (emphasis mine).

The CDC’s concern about the Ebola v irus being spread v ia the air is understandable in light ofa 2012 experiment conducted by Canadian scientists which prov ed that, “the ebola v iruscould be transmitted by air between species.”

At this time it is too early to tell if efforts by health officials in Africa, Europe and the USA will beeffectiv e in stopping the v irus. All indications suggest it will continue to spread, just as it has fornearly a y ear.

The disease models, which are based on population density and mobility patterns, show that it isonly a matter of time before an infection is identified in the United States.

In the ev ent that a single person in the Western hemisphere acquires it, then chances are there willbe more.

Hospitals in the United States may be preparing isolation protocols, but what about Mexico, wherethe southern border has been left completely exposed? With cramped quarters on trains and truckscarry ing hundreds or thousands of migrants, and unsanitary conditions, it is quite possible that asingle infected indiv idual could pass the v irus on to scores of others, who in turn would disperse tov arious cities as soon as they reached US-soil.

And that doesn’t ev en include the millions of trav elers arriv ing and departing at US airports fromcoast to coast on a daily basis.

The CDC and US healthcare officials may think they can control it, but all such efforts around theworld hav e failed thus far.

Moreov er, should an Ebola outbreak occur in the United States, the panic it will cause may exceedwhat we saw during the H1N1 flu scare sev eral y ears ago. Ov er 25% of American adults fear that thev irus could spread to a family member or close friend because of its high fatality rate. This suggeststhat any indication of contagion on US shores will lead to a run on medical supplies once the v irusbecomes reality here at home.

The healthcare sy stem could be ov erwhelmed and medical supplies could feel a serious crunch aspanicked Americans race to acquire ev ery thing from WHO recommended N-100masks to protectiv e body suits.

The best prev ention will start at home and being positioned with pandemic suppliesbefore such acrisis will be critical, as noted by T he Prepper’s Blueprint author Tess Pennington. Some of the

supplies she recommends can be purchased now – before the panic – at y our local grocery ,hardware store, or online.

Pennington recommends getting ready for not just infection prev ention, but the ov erall effect it willhav e on businesses and gov ernment operations.

Hav ing first hand knowledge of the gov ernment’s protocols before this ty pe of emergencyarises can help put y ou ahead of the game. Understanding that our liv es will changedrastically if the population is faced with a pandemic and being prepared for this can helpy ou make better choices toward the well being of y our family . Some changes could be:

Challenges or shut downs of business commerceBreakdown of our basic infrastructure: communications, mass transportation, supplychainsPay roll serv ice interruptionsStaffing shortages in hospitals and medical clinicsInterruptions in public facilities – Schools, workplaces may close, and publicgatherings such as sporting ev ents or worship serv ices may close temporarily .Gov ernment mandated v oluntary or inv oluntary home quarantine.

Among her instructions for creating a sick room, Tess recommends a basic supply list.

Basic Pandem ic Preparedness Supply List

N-100 face masks (Recommended mask rating from World Health Organization)Latex glov esTy v ek body suitsSafety Ey ewearFluids and electroly tesPain reliev ersHand sanitizerPlastic sheetingGarbage bagsPlenty of extra food in case of business shutdowns.Click here for the full pandemic preparedness supply list

We can nev er be 100% certain of the outcome, especially when dealing with outliers like pandemics.But chances are that gov ernment emergency responders will be swamped, grocery stores will beempty , and the majority of people will hav e no idea what to do.

We can, howev er, prepare ourselv es with basic supplies and the knowledge necessary to increaseour ability to prev ent contagion reaching those closest to us and stay ing safe should such anoutbreak take hold.

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