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U.S. Mortgage Insurance PerspectivesInvestor Materials
February 10, 2012
Company Confidential ©2011 Genworth Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. ©2012 Genworth Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Forward-Looking StatementsThis presentation contains certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as “expects,” “intends,” “anticipates,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “will” or words of similar meaning and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the outlook for Genworth Financial, Inc.’s (Genworth) future business and financial performance. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially due to global political, economic, business, competitive, market, regulatory and other factors and risks, including those discussed in the Appendix, as well as in the risk factors section of Genworth’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on February 25, 2011 and Genworth’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, filed with the SEC on November 7, 2011. Genworth undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
Selected Operating Performance Measures
1
Selected Operating Performance Measures
All financial data as of December 31, 2011 unless otherwise noted. For additional information, please see Genworth’s fourth quarter of 2011 earnings release and financial supplement posted at genworth.com.
For important information regarding selected operating performance measures, see the Appendix.
All references in this presentation to return on equity (ROE) should be read on a 24 percent levered basis unless otherwise noted.
February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
This presentation should be used in conjunction with the accompanying audio or call transcript.
Agenda U.S. Mortgage Insurance (U.S. MI) Portfolio Overview
Loss Development
Change In Expectation/Reserve Adequacy
New Delinquencies
Embedded Value & Claims Paying Ability
New Business Quality
Capital Strategy
Strategic Options
Drivers Of Return To Profitability
2February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Key Messages Risk Discipline Entering The Cycle Resulted In Differentiated Portfolio Mix With Go Forward Implications
Changes In Reserve Expectation Impacted 2010 & 2011 Results… Current Expectation Is New Delinquencies Should Drive Losses Going Forward
Risk To Capital Elevated But Claims Paying Ability Is Sound
New Business Adds Positive Economics And Benefits Claims Paying Ability
Multiple Factors Drive A Return To Profitability
Evaluated All Strategic Options & Following A Planned Path
3February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
10%
15%
20%
Comparison Of U.S. MI Peers Through Cycle
Industry4
GNW
Delta
Peers5A B C D GNW
Key Performance Metrics1 Industry Primary Delq. Rates
ARM2 (< 5 Yrs) 9% 5% 8% 5% 2%
Alt-A2 9% 10% 15% 9% 3%
Bulk RIF 12% 9% 12% 7% 2%
Geographic2
California 8% 12% 7% 6% 6%
0%
5%
Jun-06 Jun-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Aug-10 Sep-11
February 10, 2012 4U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
1Data Sourced From Publicly Disclosed Information Available From
Applicable SEC Filings Of Industry Peers as of 9/30/11. There Can Be
No Assurance Each Company Categorized Insured Loans In Similar
Terms.2Based On Primary RIF3Pre-Tax Operating Basis4Excludes GNW; Radian Added December 2008; UG Excluded
February 2011; PMI Excluded September 20115GNW, Peer A & Peer D Are As Of 4Q11; Peer B Is As Of 3Q11; Peer C
Is As Of 2Q11
DeltaCalifornia 8% 12% 7% 6% 6%
Florida 7% 8% 9% 8% 7%
RTC Combined 22.2 NA NA 108.5 28.8 Flagship 20.3 21.4 58.1 NA 32.9
Avg. Res/Delq 21.8 23.5 23.0 23.0 28.3($K)
12+ Delq (Age) 49% 54% 55% n/a 45%
Net Loss ($B) (4.5) (3.3) (2.8) (2.3)3 (1.8)(3Q07-4Q11)
40%23%
17%
4%6%
8%
Composition Of Flow Business By Vintage
2008
20092010
26.7 2.4
2011
Breakdown By Vintage Observations
•Flow 2005-2007 Books:
Reserves Are Disproportionate To RIF
Flat To Negative Home Price Appreciation --Lower Refinancing Options Impacting Cure Rates
Underperformance Primarily Driven By Specialty Product & Sand States1
($B)
February 10, 2012 5U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
14% 11%
9% 13%
11%19%
25%
40%
% Of RIF Reserves
2007
2006
2005
2004 &Prior
1Sand States Include CA, FL, AZ, NV
•Flow 2008 Book:
’07 Specialty Product Overhang
Collateral Improvement From New Guidelines In 2H08
•Flow 2009-2011 Books:
New Books Performing Better Than Expected In Challenging Environment
Delinquencies By Aging CategoryPrimary Delinquencies
102,800
115,430122,279
107,104101,759 98,613 95,395
89,018 87,464 88,020
49%
33%
47%
32%
47%
30%
46%
27%
42%
26%
38%
27%
36%
26%
35%
24%
31%
24%
28%
26%
4-11 Payments
≤3 Payments
87,007
29%
26%
2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Reserve Strengthening While Delinquencies Trend Lower
Flow Average Reserve Per Delq ($K)
22.9 20.0 18.9 19.2 19.5 20.4 24.3 25.4 29.2 28.8
18%
49%
21% 23% 27% 32% 35% 38% 41% 45% 46%≥12 Payments
29.1
45%
February 10, 2012 6U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Incurred Losses Are Driven By 2 Factors1 Change In Expectation Of Claims On Current Delinquent Inventory
(Leads To Reserve Updates)
Net Cures & Aging May Be Leading Indicator To Reserve Change
3Q/4Q10 -- Modifications/Rescissions (~$435MM)
2Q11 -- Experience (~$100MM) & Future Expectation (~$200MM)
2 New Delinquencies
February 10, 2012 7
Drive Incurred Losses When Experience Matches Expectation
Primary Driver Of 3Q11 & 4Q11 Incurred Losses
U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Reserving -- Back Testing1
Dec ’09 Cohort -- Cumulative Cure Rates1 Observations
Evaluation Of Cure & Claim Activity On Static Population
Ever To Date Cures Building Towards Current Reserve Expectations
~20K Loans Remain Unresolved After 2 Years
Rescinded Loans Removed From Population … Cures Reflect
Current Cure Expectation
0%
10%
20%
2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11
Cure Rate Claim Rate % Remaining
Historical Experience In Line With Current Reserve Expectation
1Analysis Excludes Redefaults Of Cures
February 10, 2012 8U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Population … Cures Reflect Modifications & Self Cures
Illustrative Only: Single Population Of Loan Seasoning Through Specific Economic Environment. Future Composition Of Delinquencies & Economic Conditions Could Drive Different Results
2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
$100MM - Observed Experience
+$200MM - Future Expected Deterioration
$300MM - Total Reserve Factor Update
Update To 2Q11 Reserve Actions1
2Q11 Reserve Factor Updates
$200MM Future Expected Deterioration
Reserve Increase For Future Expected Deterioration
Estimated Utilization Of $200MM Reserve Increase
Remaining Provision
Utilization Slowed In 4Q11 As Cure Activity Improved … ExpectContinued Deterioration Within Estimated Level
$200
$(100) $(20)
$100 $80$200
February 10, 2012 9U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
22
242
541
847
734
567
Investigations
Claims Reviews
Workouts
$MM
Reserves -- Loss Mitigation Impacts1
Exceeded 2011 Target Of $400-500MM
•Loss Mitigation Through The Cycle
Rescissions Activity Through 2Q10
Workouts Ramped In 2010
Claims Mitigation Increase In ’11 & ’12As Claims Come Through Pipeline
•Loss Mitigation Expectations300-400
583
15845
35
73
541
449
2009 2010 2011 2012E
Loss Mitigation Savings Reported As The Reserve Release On Delinquent Loans Or Claim Reduction On Short Sale & Claim Mitigation Activity
Flow Workouts Continue But Volume Decreases As Delinquent Opportunities Decline/Age
2011 Actual Workouts ~18,000
2012 Estimated Workouts ~13,000
Loss Mitigation Delivers Continued Benefit
300-400
10February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
2005–2008 Books Peaked In 4Q09
New Delinquencies -- Bad Books Run Off2
3000
4000
5000
# Of New Delinquencies
Burn-Out Is Gradual But Meaningful… Historical Seasonal Drop In 1Q
February 10, 2012 11
0
1000
2000
1/05 7/05 1/06 7/06 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11
Month
2005 2006 2007 2008
U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
12/11
New Flow Delqs Slowing Since 3Q09 -- Seasonality In 3Q10 & 3Q11
Flow New Delinquencies -- Qtrly Trends2
23,354
26,487
30,872
36,221 34,955
32,367
36,100
33,609
29,323
24,871 26,008
24,600
22,652
20,353
22,428 21,101
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000 HAMP
Other Mods
Self-Cures
1st Time Delq
Re-Defaults
1
New Delinquency / Re-Delinquency Trends Favorable
1Home Affordable Modification Program
February 10, 2012 12
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Annual New Flow Delinquencies (K)
117
137
105
87
~70
Flow New Delinquencies -- Annual Trends2
Problem Vintages Burnout & New Books Favorable Performance
81103
2009-2011
2005-2008
2004 &Prior
Expectation In 2012 Supported By Trends & Macro Economics
% Increase (Decrease) 17% (23)% (17)% ~(20)%
36 34 27 22 ~20
8178
65~50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
February 10, 2012 13U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
78207
435300
2633
Summary: Annual Loss Drivers
Incurred Losses ($MM)
$1,325$1,491
Prior Years Have Reserve Adjustments & Aging
952785
2010 2011 2012E
News Net Aging Reserve Update Other
Current Expectations: Reserves Are Adequate -- 2012 Losses Should Primarily Be New Delinquency Driven … With Seasonal Variation
1Other Includes Bulk, Pool, Reinsurance & Loss Adjustment Expenses Partially Offset By Captive Benefits
1
14February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Claims Paying FrameworkKey ConsiderationsClaims Paying Resources
($B)
0.6Captive Trusts
3.7
2.7
0.4MIC Shares1
•Statutory Surplus ~$800MM At 12/31/11
•Claims Paying Analysis Going Forward Influenced By:
Investments -- Quality
Modeling Approach & Assumptions
Loss Expectations
12/31/2011
1MIC Shares: ~$400MM Statutory Value Of Genworth MI Canada, Inc. (MIC) Common Stock (TSX: MIC)
2.7Invested Assets
New Business Levels & Margin
15February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
U.S. MI Investment Portfolio
58%
3%
1.9
3.1
97% Of Portfolio Investment Grade
Portfolio Average Duration 4 Years
No Single Issuer Reflects >2% Of Portfolio Value
Exposure To Financials Of ~7%
Cash & Short-Term Investments
~16% Of Portfolio Cash & Short-Term Holdings
($B)
Quality Assessment Of InvestmentsGov’t Bonds
Corporates
0.5
11%
26%
2%
GLIC Preferred1
1Genworth Life Insurance Company2Reflects Statutory Value Of Investment In MIC Common Stock Shares Eliminated For GAAP Financial Reporting Purposes
Exposure To Financials Of ~7%
Proactively Managing Liquidity To Meet Claims Obligations
MIC Common2
Affiliate Investments
Tax ExemptMunis
Asset-Backed SecuritiesPreferred/LPs
0.3
0.4
0.7$15MM Annual Dividend
Traded On Toronto Stock Exchange/Dividends
16February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Modeling Analytics
Volatility In Economic Conditions Drives Need To Evaluate Business Results Across Range Of Expected Outcomes
Econometric Modeling Challenge
Break-Down In Historical Relationships Between Changes In Home Prices/Unemployment With Ultimate Claims Development
As A Result, We Forecast Using Single Macro Economic Path While Adjusting Claim Rates On Existing Delinquencies & New Adjusting Claim Rates On Existing Delinquencies & New Delinquencies
3rd Party (Global Insights) Baseline Macro Economic Forecast
Manage Financial Profile & Operating Metrics Across Expected Outcomes
Validate Model Methods And Results Through External Analysis
17February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Single Economic Path Used Across Expected Range… Provided By Global Insights
5-6 Pts. Of Additional Home Price Decline With Recovery Beginning 2H12, Peak To Trough Of ~25%
Unemployment Above 9% Through Early 2013, Followed By Slow Jobs Recovery
Genworth Modeling AssumptionsEconomic & Production Assumptions
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Flow NIW ($B) ~10 10-16 20 28
Base Expectation Further Deterioration
Reserves Adequate For Future Claims Activity On Existing Delinquencies
~13K Modifications In 2012
~21% New Delinquency Roll To Claims Slightly Higher Than Current Experience … Improves Over Time
•~$100MM Reserve Increase On Existing Delinquencies
•Deterioration In New Delinquency Roll Rate To Claim (2 Point Increase In 2012 & 2013)
•2012 NIW Reduced By ~$4B
Flow NIW ($B) ~10 10-16 20 28
18February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Risk To Capital Corridor
Independent Third Party Reviews
Value Of New Business
Risk To Capital Levels
Type Of Risk In Portfolio
Strength Of Balance Sheet
Reserve Adequacy
Statutory Solvency+
Regulators Looking At More Than RTC Test
BusinessStatutory Solvency
Ability To Pay Claims
Where We Are In Cycle
+
Comprehensive Stakeholder Review Can Provide Basis For Waiver & Ability To Continue To Write Profitable New Business
Parental Support
19February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Embedded Value Concepts1
Portfolio Embedded Value
Aggregation Of Future Cash Flows From Existing Portfolio Under Runoff
Discounted Cash Flows From Future Premiums Less Future Claims & Expenses
Inclusive Of Existing Unpaid Claim & Unearned Premium Reserves
Consistent Approach To Premium Deficiency Analysis
Enterprise Embedded Value2
1Reviewed By External Party For Reasonableness Of Concepts & Approach. These Definitions Of Embedded Value Are Defined In Reference Of The Amounts On The Tables On The Following Page. The Purpose Of Providing These Estimates Is To Provide Insights Regarding Expected Future Cash Flows For Genworth’s Operations, & Do Not Reflect Future Distributable Cash Flows From Genworth’s (MI) Statutory Entities. Our Definitions Of Embedded Value May Not Be Comparable To That Used By Other Companies. In Developing The Estimates Underlying The Embedded Value Calculations, We Rely On Models & Significant Assumptions That Affect The Magnitude & Timing Of The Estimated Future Premium, Claim & Expense Cash Flows. The Future Premium, Claim & Expense Cash Flow Estimates May Prove To Differ Significantly From The Actual Cash Flows That Emerge Due To The Significant Amount Of Uncertainty Inherent In The Economy & In Particular Within The Housing Market.
2Enterprise Embedded Value Performed As Runoff Calculation Excluding The Impact Of New Business But Assuming The Immediate, Full Value Of GAAP Equity.
Enterprise Embedded Value
Portfolio Embedded Value Plus GAAP Equity As Of 12/31/2011
Includes Other Cash Flows From Non-Flow Mortgage Insurance
Supports Sufficiency Of Claims Paying Resources
20February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Embedded Value -- CTR1 Assumptions
Vintage ETD2 CTR Ultimate CTR
2004 & Prior3 2 ~2-4
2005 8 ~12-14
2006 11 ~18-20
2007 10 ~21-23
1CTR - Claims Termination Rate Represents Number Of Claims Out Of 100 Policies Written2Ever To Date32004 & Prior = 1995-2004 Book Years
2007 10 ~21-23
2008 3 ~11-13
2009 0 ~1
2010 0 ~1
2011 0 ~1
21February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Embedded Value CalculationsFlow Portfolio Embedded Value1 Enterprise Embedded Value1
<=042 05-08 09-11 Total
Future Premiums3 200 1,280 550 2,030
Future Claims3 (260) (2,810) (40) (3,110)
Future Expenses3 (30) (230) (70) (330)
Future Cash Flows (90) (1,760) 440 (1,410)
Reserves4 250 2,000 70 2,320
Portfolio Embedded Value 160 240 510 910
Total
GAAP Equity 1,130
Flow Portfolio Embedded Value 910
Other Cash Flows5 (130)
Enterprise Embedded Value 1,910
($MM), Discounted ($MM) Discounted
Portfolio Embedded Value 160 240 510 910
Ultimate CTR 2.5% 16.0% 0.8% 5.6%
Original Policies Written (K) 2,408 789 129 3,326
Ultimate Claims (K) 59 126 1 186
Enterprise Embedded Value 1,910
1The Terms “Portfolio Embedded Value” & “Enterprise Embedded Value” Are Defined On A Previous Slide2Includes Loans Originated From 1995-20043Estimated Cash Flows Reflect Flow Business Only & Are From Genworth’s Internal Projection Models. These Amounts Assume No New Business Written After 2011, Are Net Of Cessions To Captive Reinsurance, & Are Discounted At 4% Per Annum Discount Rate Based On Expected Investment Yields. Expenses Assumed At ~ 12% Of Premiums Consistent With Runoff Portfolio Analytic.
4Reserves Include Unpaid Claims, IBNR, Loss Adjustment Expenses, & Unearned Premiums, & Are Net Of Cessions To Captive Reinsurance5Other Cash Flows Include Non-Flow Business, Assumed & Ceded Reinsurance
22February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Borrower Equity 10%
Example: $200,000 Home Purchase
90% Loan To Value (LTV)
Primary MI22.5%
(MI Coverage 25%)
RiskIn-Force (RIF)
IIF $180,000
X Average Rate .54%
= 1st Year Premium 972
~4.4 Year Average Life 4,300
Loss Ratio 22%
Expense Ratio 29%
Example
$20,000
$45,000
How We Make Money
Originator/ Investor 67.5%
Expense Ratio 29%
Underwriting Income 2,100
Investment Income (4%) 600
Taxes (35%) 950
Operating Income 1,750
Levered ROE: 20%+
InsuranceIn-Force (IIF)
$135,000
23February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
100%
200%
2005-2008 Book Years
(67% Risk In Force)
Bad Book Vs. Dynamic Good BookPrior Risks Today
Certain "Exotic" Products (Alt-A, A Minus)
Core Products
Stable Pricing History
25-35% Base Rate ����
Limited Risk Adders
Higher Gross & Net Pricing
Ris
kP
rice
Loss Ratio Comparison1
67% Of RIF
0%
2004 & Prior Book Years
(14% Risk In Force)
2009-2011 Book Years
(19% Risk In Force)
20%+ New Business ROE
Captive Reinsurance
No Excess Of Loss
High % Delegated U/W
Low % Delegated U/W
Pri
ce
En
vir
on
men
t
Early StageDelinquencies
2010 Vintage~135 Delqs.
Heavy Regulatory Scrutiny
Buyback Demands
Limited Regulatory Enforcement
Limited “Skin In The Game”
19% Of RIF
14% Of RIF
24February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
1Gross Flow Excluding Reinsurance Impacts
Changing Portfolio CompositionCharacteristicsNIW Compared To Lapse
Avg. Cede 1% 21%
Avg. Rate-Core, Net 0.57% 0.42%
Avg. LTV 90 92%
’09-’11NIW
2011Prepays/Cancels
Higher Price For Lower Risk
Reduced Stacked Risk Factors
Minimal Captive Cede
No Exotic Products
Highest Credit (FICO) Quality In 15 Years
Older Business Being Replaced By Higher Quality New Insurance At A Higher Price
Core Excludes 100% LTV, A Minus, & Alt-A
Avg. LTV 90 92%
Avg. Cover 22% 24%
Avg. FICO 756 725
% Core ~100% 88%
% Owner Occupied 98% 95%
15 Years
25February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
15%
20%
25%
Performance By Book Year
Expected Pricing Loss Ratio
•2009-2011 Books Performing Well Within Loss Ratio Expectations
•Seasoning Through Worse Than Average Economic Environment
•Favorable Loan Performance On The New Books Indicate The Successful Changes In:
ETD Loss Ratios By Book Year Observations
0%
5%
10%
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46
’09-’11 Books Performing Better Than Pricing ExpectationsDespite A Challenging Environment
2009
2010
Changes In:
Lender Selection/Management
Improved Underwriting Practices
Credit Policy
More Robust Pricing2011
26February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Life Of Book
2009 Book Actual vs Pricing
Premium
Losses
Expenses
Underwriting Income
Levered ROE
$174
22%
29%
$84
20%+
$236
10%
38%
$125
31%
Higher Persistency
Favorable Loss Performance
Unfavorable Pricing Expenses
Book Smaller Than Long Run Average
Drove Expense Actions
($MM)
ActualPricing Comments
Levered ROE 20%+ 31%Drove Expense Actions
Loss Experience Offsets Small Book Size Expenses
Assumptions Book Size $7.4B Monthly Premium Rate 55 bps Pricing Average Life At 4.4 Years … Actual Life Estimated At 5.7 years Pricing -- Estimates At Origination Actual – Performance Through 3Q11 & Remaining Life Forecast 35% Tax Rate Debt To Capital Ratio Of 24%
27February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Good Book Is GrowingSince 2009 -- Percentage Of Profitable Books Is Rising
Insurance In-Force ($B) Cumulative Gross Margin1 ($MM)
18.4
25.5
~37
196
~285
Recent Vintages Forecast To Produce ROE > 20%
2009 2010 2011 2012E% OfBook 7% 14% 22% 28%
1Gross Margin = Premiums Less Incurred Losses
2009 2010 2011 2012E
10.7
27
93
28February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
68 79
190 154
Maximize Profitability With New Production
FHA1 Single-Family
Private MI
($B)
2012 ObservationsMarket Size Forecast
2011 2012ELong Term
Originations Pressured As LaborMarket Weighs On Potential Buyers … Pent Up Consumer Demand
Continued MI Purchase PenetrationImprovement … Currently At ’04-’05 Levels
Market Share Lift With Competitors
1Federal Housing Administration
2012 FHA Based On Company Estimate
Lifetime NI Contribution ($MM)
Term
Originations 1,300 940 1,400
MI Penetration 5.2% 8.4% 12%
MI Market Size 68 79 170
Genworth Share ~15% ~18% ~16%
Genworth NIW ($MM) 10 15 27
110 160 300
Long Term Observations
Market Share Lift With Competitors Exiting Business
Market Fundamentals Return To Historical Levels
Typical Book Year ContributingSignificant Net Income
29February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Drivers Of A Return To Profitability Burnout Of 2005-2008 Books
Reserves Are Adequate … Incurred Losses Driven By New Delinquencies
RIF & Performance Of New Books Outweighs Bad Vintages
Originations Market Recovers With The Housing Market
MI Penetration Returns To Historical Rates
Drivers Suggest Opportunity To Return To ProfitabilityDuring 2013
MI Penetration Returns To Historical Rates
Genworth Maintains “Fair Share” Of MI Market … Within Risk Disciplines & Learnings From Cycle
No Double Dip In U.S. Housing Market
No Material Global Economic Downturn
February 10, 2012 30U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Capital Strategy
Risk To Capital Ratio X:1
27.530.728.8
32.9
Regulatory Capital Position Maintaining Capital Flexibility
•25:1 Waivers
Waivers Or No Action In Place From 44 States
50 State Production Flexibility Maintained
•Contingency Plans In Place With GRMAC2; Requires GSE Approval
Currently Writing Business In 5 States: OH,
3Q11 3Q114Q11E 4Q11E
Aggregate GMICO1
4Q Risk To Capital Is An Estimate Due To Timing Of Filing Of Statutory Financial Statements
Currently Writing Business In 5 States: OH, KS, ID, MO, FL
•Discussions On Potential Alternative Structures
1Genworth Mortgage Insurance Company 2Genworth Residential Mortgage Assurance Corporation
31February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Actively Solicit Waivers From States To Continue Writing From Flagship After Breaching Risk To Capital Threshold
For States That Do Not Grant Waivers, Place Production From That State In Stacked Entity
Balance Of Production Continues To Be Written From Flagship
Sufficient Capital To Support Approximately One Year Of
Key Considerations
Current State
GRMACWriter Of
Non-Waiver States
FlagshipSufficient Capital To Support Approximately One Year Of New Business Capacity Nationwide -- Depending On New Volume Levels
GRMAC Can Be Used With GSE Approval
Currently 5 States Are Being Written Out Of GRMAC
Conclusion
As Flagship Is Pressured From Risk To Capital Perspective, Move To Writing All 50 States From Stacked Entity
GRMAC
32February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Options For Mortgage Insurance Business Maintain Ongoing Operations
Continue To Write New Business … Adds Positive Economics
Maintains “Options” In The Future
Runoff
Cease Writing New Business But Continue To Service Existing Books
Can Be Company Managed Or Regulatory Driven
1
2
Can Be Company Managed Or Regulatory Driven
Spin Off/Sell Mortgage Insurance Operations
Potentially Not Viable In Short Term
Regulatory Hurdles
Potential To Lose Value Of Deferred Tax Assets
3
33February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Continue To Write New Business With Profitable Returns Generates Additional Capital Over Time Which Adds To The Ability To Pay Claims In An Expected Or Stress Scenario
Deploying Available Capital For New Business Incrementally Builds Claims-Paying Ability
Minimizes Potential Negative Implications For Other Insurance Businesses
Preserves All Options & Residual Value Of Mortgage Insurance Business With A Bolstered Capital Base
Many Proposals For Restructuring U.S. Mortgage Insurance Finance System Favor Private Sector
Option 1: Maintain Ongoing Operations
Solutions
34February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Option II: RunoffWe Believe That Under Right Circumstances, A Management-Sponsored, Solvent Runoff Is Possible, But Regulatory Approval As To Proposed Capital Adequacy Is Critical
Would Generally Not Trigger Event Of Default Provisions, In Indentures & Credit Agreements
Ceasing New Business Eliminates Future Premium Income, Which Reduces Capital Support Of The Runoff Business
For A Runoff, Regulators Typically Require Solvency & Claims-Paying Ability Under Stress Scenarios - Which Is Not Necessarily Required For Ongoing Business
During Runoff Period, Regulator Retains Authority To Require Additional Capital
Placing Mortgage Insurance Into Runoff Without Regulatory Buy-In Could Cause The Regulator To Act: Require Capital; Shift Claims Payouts, Limit Flexibility … Or In Worst Case, Seizure
Regulatory Intervention Can Have Multiple Negative Implications For A Multi-Line Insurer: Other Regulators, Ratings, New Business Impact & Capital Management
35February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Option III: Spin Off/Sale
Despite Ongoing New Business Generation, Regulator Would Likely Require Solvency & Claims-Paying Ability Under Stress Scenarios Due To The Removal Of Parent Company As A Potential Future Funding Source
If Capital Deemed Inadequate In Stress Test Scenario, Regulator Will Likely Require Additional Capital Or Refuse To Approve The Change Of Control Resulting From The Spinoff
Equity & Debt Investors May Require Additional Capital Contributions Before Investing In Entity Being Spun Off
Spin Off
Potential Inability To Utilize Net Operating Losses (NOLs)
Regulatory Approval Dependent Upon Financial Strength Of Buyer
Buyer May Need To Raise Capital
Buyer May Require Significant Discount For Uncertainties In Current Macro Environment
Buyer Will Be Unable To Utilize NOLs So Purchase Price Will Not Reflect Them
Sale/Merger
36February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Demanding Capital ScreensInvestor Screens
Genworth On Track For Executing Other Material Capital Reallocation Transactions
Additional Granular Analysis Of The Risk, Value & Return Considerations
Improved Visibility On The Public Policy Front
Assessment Of Actions By Competitors Along With The Current Views Of GSEs & Regulators
February 10, 2012 37U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Housing Reform Progress
QRM Update
QRM Still Pending -- 10% Down Compromise Or Re-Proposed Altogether?
Growing Consensus For Broader Definition
FHA Market
Actuarial Report Shows Increased Capital Pressure & Bailout Scenarios
FHA Loan Limits Increased By Congress … No Increase For GSEs
Continue To Support FHA Contraction & Reform
Housing Finance (GSE) Reform
Limited Action Before 2012 Presidential Election
Private Mortgage Insurance In Every Credible Plan
Potential Opportunity For Deeper MI Coverage
38February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Key Messages Risk Discipline Entering The Cycle Resulted In Differentiated Portfolio Mix With Go Forward Implications
Changes In Reserve Expectation Impacted 2010 & 2011 Results… Current Expectation Is New Delinquencies Should Drive Losses Going Forward
Risk To Capital Elevated But Claims Paying Ability Is Sound
New Business Adds Positive Economics And Benefits Claims Paying Ability
Multiple Factors Drive A Return To Profitability
Evaluated All Strategic Options & Following A Planned Path
39February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
U.S. Mortgage Insurance PerspectivesInvestor Materials
February 10, 2012
Company Confidential ©2011 Genworth Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. ©2012 Genworth Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Appendix
41February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Glossary of Key Terms
New Insurance Written (NIW)
Original Principal Balance Of Mortgages Insured In A Given Period (e.g. One Year)
When We Say … It Represents …
Loan To Value (LTV) Loan Amount Divided By Property Value At Origination
Net Written Premiums (NWP)
Premiums Collected On Insured Loans In A Given Period
Insurance In-Force (IIF)
Original Principal Balance Of All Mortgage LoansCurrently Insured
Unearned Premium Reserve (UPR)
Premiums Received But Not Yet Amortized Into Earnings
Risk In-Force (RIF)IIF x Mortgage Insurance Coverage %; Coverage % Adjusted For Historical Loss Severity
Loss Ratio Incurred Losses Divided By Net Earned Premiums
42February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
LoanCoverage
DelinquentLoan Balance
Loss Reserve Calculation
SeverityFrequencyX X X
25%$190,000 95%33% $15,000
=Total LossReserve
25% 105%50% $25,000
Example: Missed Two Payments
Example: Missed Three Payments
$190,000
Reserve Based On Delinquent Loan Balance
Delinquencies Are Classified By Age
Reserves Increase At Each Stage Of Delinquency Age As The Probability Of Going To Claim Becomes Higher
Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) Is A Percentage Of Total Loss Reserves
Periodic Reviews By 3rd Party Independent Actuary & External Auditor
P&L Impact = Change In Loss Reserves
43February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as “expects,” “intends,” “anticipates,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “will” or words of similar meaning and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the outlook for the company’s future business and financial performance. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially due to global political, economic, business, competitive, market, regulatory and other factors and risks, including the following:
• Risks relating to the company’s businesses, including downturns and volatility in global economies and equity and credit markets; downgrades or potential downgrades inthe company’s financial strength or credit ratings; interest rate fluctuations and levels; adverse capital and credit market conditions (including the impact on the potential extension, replacement or refinancing of the company’s credit facilities); the valuation of fixed maturity, equity and trading securities; defaults, downgrades or other events impacting the value of the company’s fixed maturity securities portfolio; defaults on the company’s commercial mortgage loans or the mortgage loans underlying the company’s investments in commercial mortgage-backed securities and volatility in performance; goodwill impairments; defaults by counterparties to reinsurance arrangements or derivative instruments; an adverse change in risk based capital and other regulatory requirements; insufficiency of reserves; legal constraints on dividend distributions by the company’s subsidiaries; competition; availability, affordability and adequacy of reinsurance; loss of key distribution partners; regulatory restrictions on the company’s operations and changes in applicable laws and regulations; legal or regulatory investigations or actions; the failure of or any compromise of the security of the company’s computer systems; the occurrence of natural or man-made disasters or a pandemic; the effect of the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act; changes in the accounting standards issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board or other standard-setting bodies; impairments of or valuation allowances against the company’s deferred tax assets; changes in expected morbidity and mortality rate; accelerated amortization of deferred acquisition costs and present value of future profits; reputational risks as a result of rate increases on certain in force long term care insurance products; medical advances, such as genetic research and diagnostic imaging, and related legislation; unexpected changes in persistency rates; ability to continue to implement actions to mitigate the impact of statutory reserve requirements; the failure of demand for long term care insurance to increase; political and economic instability or changes in government policies; foreign exchange rate fluctuations; unexpected changes in unemployment rates; unexpected increases in mortgage insurance default rates or severity of defaults; the significant portion of high loan to value insured international mortgage loans which generally result in more and larger claims than lower loan-to-value ratios; competition with government owned high loan to value insured international mortgage loans which generally result in more and larger claims than lower loan-to-value ratios; competition with government owned and government sponsored enterprises offering mortgage insurance; changes in international regulations reducing demand for mortgage insurance; increases in mortgage insurance default rates; failure to meet, or have waived to the extent needed, the minimum statutory capital requirements and hazardous financial condition standards; uncertain results of continued investigations of insured U.S. mortgage loans; possible rescissions of coverage and the results of objections to the company’s rescissions; the extent to which loan modifications and other similar programs may provide benefits to the company; unexpected changes in unemployment and underemployment rates in the United States; further deterioration in economic conditions or a further decline in home prices in the United States; problems associated with foreclosure process defects in the United States that may defer claim payments; changes to the role or structure of Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac); competition with government owned and government sponsored enterprises offering U.S. mortgage insurance; changes in regulations that affect the U.S. mortgage insurance business; the influence of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and a small number of large mortgage lenders and investors; decreases in the volume of high loan to value mortgage originations or increases in mortgage insurance cancellations in the United States; increases in the use of alternatives to private mortgage insurance in the United States and reductions by lenders in the level of coverage they select; the impact of the use of reinsurance with reinsurance companies affiliated with U.S. mortgage lending customers; legal actions under the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act of 1974; and potential liabilities in connection with the company’s U.S. contract underwriting services;
• Other risks, including the risk that adverse market or other conditions might delay or impede the planned IPO of the company’s mortgage insurance business in Australia; the possibility that in certain circumstances the company will be obligated to make payments to General Electric Company (GE) under the tax matters agreement with GE even if the company’s corresponding tax savings are never realized and payments could be accelerated in the event of certain changes in control; and provisions of the company’s certificate of incorporation and bylaws and the tax matters agreement with GE may discourage takeover attempts and business combinations that stockholders might consider in their best interests; and
• Risks relating to the company’s common stock, including the suspension of dividends and stock price fluctuations.
The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
44February 10, 2012U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials
This presentation includes information related to loss mitigation activities for the U.S. mortgage insurance business. The company defines loss mitigation activities as rescissions, cancellations, borrower loan modifications, repayment plans, lender- and borrower-titled presales, claims administration and other loan workouts. Estimated savings related to rescissions are the reduction in carried loss reserves, net of premium refunds and reinstatement of prior rescissions. Estimated savings related to loan modifications and other cure related loss mitigation actions represent the reduction in carried loss reserves. For non-cure related actions, including presales, the estimated savings represent the difference between the full claim obligation and the actual amount paid. The company believes that this information helps to enhance the understanding of the operating performance of the U.S. mortgage insurance business as loss mitigation activities specifically impact current and future loss reserves and level of claim payments.
Definition Of Selected Operating Performance Measures
February 10, 2012 45U.S. Mortgage Insurance Perspectives Investor Materials