U.S. FOREIGN POLICY POLS 425 professor timothy c. lim / cal state los angeles [email protected]...

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U.S. FOREIGN POLICY POLS 425

professor timothy c. lim / cal state los [email protected]

week 2: introduction to foreign policy analysis

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introduction to foreign policy analysis

the study of foreign policy

review of key points from last week

foreign policy analysis is concerned with a variety of questions: why-questions, who- and what

questions, and how-possible questions

foreign policy analysis is interdisciplinary, drawing from a variety of theoretical approaches

there is a special relationship between foreign policy analysis and ir

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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

review: fields relevant to foreign policy

international relations social psychology

rational choice comparative politics

public policy critical theory

others

special relationship between IR and foreign policy

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review: fields relevant to foreign policy

authors also believe that the newradical accounts of IR are

important; even more …

their own approach is based on critical

political analysis

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so what is critical political analysis?

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critical political analysis: six points

critical foreign policy analysis should be empirical without being empiricist: norms and subjectivity matter

both structure and agency need to be considered

politics must be viewed broadly; not just what governments do

sensitive to issues of social construction foreign policy is never simply the “realm of

necessity” being critical does not entail assuming bad

faith about leaders

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critical political analysis

“taken together, we believe that a critical approach to foreign policy offers significant

potential for looking at foreign policy within a wider notion of politics than has traditionally

been the case within FPA” (p. 6)

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confused?

don’t worry (for now). things should become clearer as we proceed.

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some basics

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two basic definitions

foreign policy. the strategy or approach chosen by a national government to achieve its goals in relation with external entities (usually other governments)

foreign policy analysis (FPA). a subfield of political science that seeks to explain foreign policy or foreign policy behavior; FPA is distinguished from IR in its focus on sub-national, actor-specific, and multi-casual and multi-level analysis

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intro: foreign policy analysis

foreign policy analysis is a relatively recent field that stands in sharp contrast to the grand theories of IR (e.g., realism)

three seminal or paradigmatic works

Decision-Making as an Approach to the Study of International Politics by Richard Snyder

Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy by James Rosenau

Man-Mileau Relationship Hypotheses in the Context of International Politics by Harold and Margaret Sprout

1.1.

2.2.

3.3.

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key lessons SNYDER. researchers need to look below the nation-

state level of analysis to the players involved; focus should be on decision-making process, not just outcomes

ROSENAU. states are not all the same, but there are patterns and similarities among types of states that we can uncover making foreign policy behavior explainable and predictable

SPOUTS. psychological factors (the psycho-mileau) and perceptions are important

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key lessons led to further refinements, focusing on new research pathways …

small group decision-making (“groupthink”)

organizational process and bureaucratic politics

comparative foreign policy

psychological (cognitive) influences

societal milieux

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small group decision-making (“groupthink”)

Refers to the process and structure of groups making foreign policy decisions. Group decision making tends to

have its own dynamic, but a particularly important aspect is the tendency by participants to maintain group

consensus and personal acceptance. The result is often a deterioration of decision-making quality.

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organizational process and bureaucratic politics

Based on the idea that organizations and bureaucracies have their own interests and compete with other

organizations to stay “on top.” Turf battles impact the decision-making process. Organizational dynamics

(e.g., standard operating procedures) also shape responses and behavior.

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comparative foreign policy

Focused on foreign policy events on a cross-national basis as a way to analyze and predict foreign policy

behavior for all nations for all time. Effort proved less than successful.

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psychological influences on foreign policy

Based on the premise that individual perceptions and cognitive processes had a profound impact on the policy

making process. Psychological approaches focused attention on the mind of the foreign policy decision-

maker.

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societal milieux and foreign policy

Looked at the overarching social context in which decisions are made: culture, history, geography,

economics, political institutions, military power, ideology, demographics, media, and so on. Researchers believed

all these factors could play a role in the making of foreign policy.

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foreign policy analysis: contemporary agenda

foreign policy analysis in the post-cold war era is still evolving; there are, however, some clear commitments that most researchers share

commitment to looking below the nation-state level commitment to build middle-range theory commitment to pursue multi-causal explanations

spanning multiple levels of analysis commitment to utilize theory and findings from

across the spectrum of social science commitment to viewing the process of foreign policy

decision-making (i.e., how policy gets made) as important as the output thereof

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changing gears …

theories offoreign policy

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introduction to theorythe study of foreign policy

general notes about theory: definitions

simply put, theories are explanations of how something or some process works; theories are used to identify cause-and-effect relationships and to make predictions

another definition. a theory is a framework of analysis within which facts are not only selected, but also interpreted, organized, and fit together so that they create a coherent whole

a theory helps us explain or better understand the world in which we live

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general notes about theory

theories are necessarily simplifications of a more complex whole; theories are not reality, but they are

designed to tell use something meaningful and important about the real world

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general notes about theory: additional points

first, the various theories of foreign policy are not dependent on whether they are accepted or even

understood by policy makers themselves

second, theory and practice may be mutually constitutive

third, the theories we study are sometimes compatible, but sometimes contradictory

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an introduction to realism

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introduction to realismchapter 2: realism and foreign policy

realism and foreign policy

key questions

what is realism? how is it applied to the analysis and practice

of foreign policy what are the pitfalls in applying realist theories

to foreign policy analysis? what is a useful set of guidelines for avoiding

those pitfalls and using realist insights tosharpen the analysis of foreign policy?

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what is realism? core principles

groupism. humans are divided into groups and humans

depend on their own groups for safety and survival

egoism. self-interest ultimately drives political behavior

power-centrism. power is the fundamental feature of politics

to realists, these are all fundamental truths about the the world; they are the rules by which world politics

operate. such rules have consequences; they shape human behavior in particular ways

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what is realism?

additional principles

central questions focus on the causes of war and conflict

the structure of the international system is a necessary, but not always sufficient for explaining

relations among states

primary unit of analysis is the sovereign state

states are first and foremost guided by national interests defined in terms of power

states are rational, unitary actors

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what is realism?

the key concept in realism in anarchy

dictionary definition: “absence of government; the state of society where there is no law or supreme power; a state of lawlessness; political confusion.”

in realism, anarchy is not the absence of government per se, but is instead the absence of a sovereign

authority that exists above the state. to (many) realists, moreover, the

international system is not “confused,” but is governed by a structure of power dominated

by the strongest states

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what is realism?

implications of anarchy

in an anarchic system, an unavoidable logic prevails, one based on the notion,”survival of the fittest.”

in an anarchic world, only the strong survive and prosper; you can only count on yourself for help: friends

are friends only when it serves their interests

one of the clearest enunciations of the principles and implications of anarchy can be found in

a few good men …

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what is realism?

a scene from a few good men: “you can’t handle the

truth!”

what is the “truth” that tom cruise’s character cannot

handle?

Video file intentionallyremoved

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what is realism?

theoretical schools within realism

realism is a diverse school of thought that includes several variants

classical realism

neorealism (or structural realism)

defensive realism (“inside-out” variant)

offensive realism (“hyper-realism”)

neoclassical realism (“foreign policy” realism)

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what is realism?

specific theories within realism

the diversity of realism is also evident in specific theories of realism

balance of power

balance of threat

hegemonic stability theory

power transition theory

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realism: assumptions, conditions and theories: some caveats

do not confuse assumptions (groupism, egoism, and power-centrism) with scope conditions (anarchy)

anarchy is a variable condition; where it is strongest, the potential for conflict is highest; where it is attenuated, orderis stronger

do not confuse assumptions with predictions

conflict is not an assumption, but a prediction: realists predict conflict under certain conditions of anarchy

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using realism in analyzing foreign policy

along with caveats, using realism requires a careful integration of the deductive logic of realist principles and the on-the-ground dynamics of specific and concrete foreign policy situations

integration is key

examples. consider hegemonic stability theory and “anti-US counter-balancing” in the1990s ----> next slide

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using realism in analyzing foreign policy

example. anti-US counterbalancing

prominent realists, such as waltz, predicted that the collapse of the soviet union would lead to immediate “counterbalancing” against theu.s.

it did not happen, but the failure to “predict” correctly was less a problemwith realism and more a problem with a misapplication of realist principlesand a failure to consider the “concrete”details of the post-cold war era

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using realism in analyzing foreign policy: key lesson

foreign policy analysts must not be dogmatic realists--or anti-realists. they should know theories without becoming overly committed to any one

the best approach is to embrace a constant dialogue between case expertise and general theory whenever possible

remember this saying …

the fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing(Archilochus)

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using realism in analyzing foreign policy: key lesson

foreign policy analysts should be foxes and not hedgehogs

U.S. FOREIGN POLICY POLS 425 professor timothy c. lim / cal state los angeles [email protected]...

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