U.S. Energy Policy: The Burdens of the Past and Moving Forward John P. Banks Nonresident Fellow...
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U.S. Energy Policy: The Burdens of the Past and Moving Forward John P. Banks Nonresident Fellow Brookings Institution September 25, 2012 BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST - UNLV
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Transcript of U.S. Energy Policy: The Burdens of the Past and Moving Forward John P. Banks Nonresident Fellow...
U.S. Energy Policy: The Burdens of the Past and Moving Forward
John P. BanksNonresident Fellow
Brookings Institution
September 25, 2012
BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST - UNLV
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Challenges of US Energy PolicyChallenges of US Energy Policy
National
Security
Environmental Economic
Role of G
overnment
Market-driven
Regulatory-driven, Public investment
Supp
ly /
Dem
and
Opt
ions
Fossil fuels
Alternatives
Efficiency & Conservation
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Natural Gas – RISING ROLE OF SHALE GASNatural Gas – RISING ROLE OF SHALE GAS
US Natural Gas Production, Consumption, Imports – 1990 -2035 (tcf)
Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, June 2012
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Enormous Shale Gas Resource (USG estimates)Enormous Shale Gas Resource (USG estimates)
Most estimates of total range from 1,800 to 2,500 tcf
US current consumption: total of @ 23 Tcf (or 62 bcf/d)
This has been revised by EIA to 482 tcf
Marcellus from 410 tcf to 141 tcf
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Natural Gas – RISING ROLE OF SHALE GASNatural Gas – RISING ROLE OF SHALE GAS
US NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION – 1990 -2035 (tcf)
Source: US EIA 2012 Early Release, Jan 2012
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
OIL: US Production Up - Imports DownOIL: US Production Up - Imports Down
Source: US EIA
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Projections of US Crude Oil ProductionProjections of US Crude Oil Production
Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, June 2012
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
CitiGroup: Big Potential for US Shale Liquids ProductionCitiGroup: Big Potential for US Shale Liquids Production
Source: CitiGroup Report, April 2012, page 17.
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
CitiGroup: US Production Could Overtake Saudi & Russia CitiGroup: US Production Could Overtake Saudi & Russia
Source: CitiGroup Report, April 2012, page 13
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
PEW: US Leads Global Clean Energy Technology MarketPEW: US Leads Global Clean Energy Technology Market
Source: Pew Charitable Trust, Who’s Winning the Clean Energy Race, 2011 edition page 14
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
US Clean Energy MarketUS Clean Energy Market
U.S. DOE, 2010 Renewable Energy Data Book (September 2011).
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Shale Gas and Tight OilShale Gas and Tight Oil
National
Security
Environmental Economic
Gas to back out oil in transportation
Boost economic growth
Create jobs
Promote re-industrialization
Gas to back-out coal in power generation
Exporting gas as LNG = geopolitical benefits
Domestic oil can reduce imports, provide geopolitical benefits
Carbon-based fuels
Fracking concerns
Cheap gas is making low-carbon options uncompetitive
US still subject to global oil market price dynamics
Gas penetration in passenger vehicles is limited
Gains are overstated
Exporting LNG will raise domestic gas prices
Role of Government:
More v. less regulation
Who should regulate?
Supply v. demand
Use domestic supplie
s
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Shale Gas & Tight Oil – Environmental ConcernsShale Gas & Tight Oil – Environmental Concerns
NYC DEC Hearing - 11-30-11 (photo: J Banks)
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Shale Gas & Tight Oil – Environmental ConcernsShale Gas & Tight Oil – Environmental Concerns
New York City – June 5, 2012 (photo: J Banks)
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Shale Gas Environmental / Regulatory challengesShale Gas Environmental / Regulatory challenges
WATER1. Quality
Surface water contamination Aquifer contamination
2. Volume Water use at scale
3. Disposal
GHG Emissions Natural gas leaks, venting, flaring
Pollution Air
Noise
Surface disruption
Other Seismic
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Coal Plant Retirement Projections Coal Plant Retirement Projections
http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2012/07/30/coal_retirements_2012-2016.html
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
CHANGING ECONOMICS OF POWER SECTORCHANGING ECONOMICS OF POWER SECTOR
Source: US EIA. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=7610&src=email.
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Nuclear: Lack of Cost Competitiveness is HurtingNuclear: Lack of Cost Competitiveness is Hurting
From Jeffery Immelt, CEO of GE (July 2012)
:It’s just hard to justify nuclear, really hard. Gas is so cheap and at some point, really, economics rule. So I think some combination of gas, and either wind or solar … that’s where we see most countries around the world going.”
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Electricity Generation Trends – 2010-2035Electricity Generation Trends – 2010-2035
Capacity Additions by fuel type – 2011-2035 (GW)
Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, June 2012
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
15
29
13
186
9
Colorado:• Shale gas• Wind
Iowa:• Wind• Ethanol
Energy & Toss-Up StatesEnergy & Toss-Up States
Ohio:• Shale Gas• Coal
Florida:• Offshore drilling
North Carolina:• Offshore drilling
Virginia:• Offshore drilling
TOTAL ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES SHOWN: 96
6Nevada:• Nuclear• Renewables
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
The End
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
OIL: US Production Up - Imports Down - Prices?OIL: US Production Up - Imports Down - Prices?
Source: US EIA
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Crude Prices and Gasoline PricesCrude Prices and Gasoline Prices
Source: US EIA
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
CHANGING ECONOMICS OF POWER SECTORCHANGING ECONOMICS OF POWER SECTOR
Source: US EIA. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=7090 .
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Keystone XL PipelineKeystone XL Pipeline
U.S. ENERGY SECTOR: POLICY CHALLENGES
Keystone XLKeystone XL
National
Security
Environmental Economic
Canada is reliable ally; source is secure
Boost economic growth
Create jobs
Additional supplies = downward price pressure
Better than importing supplies from places with less rigorous environmental regulations
Reduces dependence on Middle East
High life-cycle CO2 emissions
Pipeline spills
We don’t import that much from ME anymore
US still subject to global oil market price dynamics
Prolongs dependence on oil & imports
Job creation relatively small, temporary
If we don’t’ import it, China will take it
Role of Government:
More v. less regulation
Supply v. demand
Use available supplie
s
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