U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire...

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U.S. Economy Update March 2018 Monthly Update Based On Leading Regional Manufacturing Indices Twitter @LeoNelissen

Transcript of U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire...

Page 1: U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire State) increased from 15.5 to 32.4 and 12.5 to 27.0 which took a lot of pressure off

U.S.EconomyUpdateMarch2018

MonthlyUpdateBasedOnLeadingRegionalManufacturingIndices

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Page 2: U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire State) increased from 15.5 to 32.4 and 12.5 to 27.0 which took a lot of pressure off

WhatIsThisReportAbout?(1/2)

• Thispresentationisdiscussingthelatestresultsofthefivemostimportantregionalmanufacturingreports.• EmpireState,Philadelphia,KansasCity,RichmondandDallas

• Allindicatorsareleadingwhichmeansthatyouareabouttofindoutwhatwecanexpecttohappeninthefuture.TheyevenpredictthenumberoneleadingindicatoroftheUSeconomy:theISMmanufacturingindex.

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Page 3: U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire State) increased from 15.5 to 32.4 and 12.5 to 27.0 which took a lot of pressure off

WhatIsThisReportAbout?(2/2)

• Imadeanaverageofallindicestogiveyoualessvolatileandmorepreciseoutlook.• Thefollowingtopicswillbediscussed:

• Compositeindex• Neworders• Shipments• Employment(new)• Futurecapitalexpenditures• Pricespaid/received

• Notethattheindicatorspresentedwillhaveameaningfulimpactonthesegmenttheyarecovering.• Highercompositeoutlook->strongerGDPgrowth• Highershipments->tailwindfortransportationstocks• Higherpricesreceived->higherCPIinflation

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Page 4: U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire State) increased from 15.5 to 32.4 and 12.5 to 27.0 which took a lot of pressure off

CompositeIndex

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Thecompositeindextookaratherbighitofalmost5pointsinMarch(downto19.6from24.2inFebruary).OnlytheEmpireStateindexshowedanimprovementfrom13.1to22.5.Allotherindiceswereeitherunchanged(Kansas)orlower.ItseemsthatthenextISMprintisgoingtobecloseto58.5.However,itistooearlytocallthenextgrowthslowingtrend.Simplybecauseitisstillpossibletogetabove-averagegrowthforanextendedperiodoftime.

Page 5: U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire State) increased from 15.5 to 32.4 and 12.5 to 27.0 which took a lot of pressure off

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Shipments

ShipmentshittheirlowestlevelsinceAugustof2017aftergoingsidewaysforthepastfewmonths.Atthispointitseemsthatwecouldseelowerlevelsgoingforward.Furthermore,itisonceagainimportanttomentionthattworegionalsurveys(Philadelphia&EmpireState)increasedfrom15.5to32.4and12.5to27.0whichtookalotofpressureoffthecompositeindexgiventhattheotherindicesdeclinedbyroughly50%.

Page 6: U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire State) increased from 15.5 to 32.4 and 12.5 to 27.0 which took a lot of pressure off

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NewOrders

NewordersarebackatJanuarylevelsafterhitting21.3inFebruary.Atthispoint,itlookslikewecanexpectISMneworderstocomeinslightlyabove60.Justlikethecompositeindexitisnotclearwhetherthisisthestartofagrowthslowingcycleorjustabreakatabove-averagelevels.

Page 7: U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire State) increased from 15.5 to 32.4 and 12.5 to 27.0 which took a lot of pressure off

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Employment ThismonthIdecidedtoaddemployment.Itseemsthattheindexwasrightafterallgiventhatitpredictedthemostrecentemploymentsurgeofmorethan300KnewjobsinFebruary.Furthermore,theindexisstillatrocksolidlevelswhichsupportsfurtherjobgrowthinMarchandbeyond.

AlsonotethecommentfromthemostrecentDallassurvey.Ithinkitperfectlytellsthecurrentstoryofemploymentshortageandstrongergrowth.

Page 8: U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire State) increased from 15.5 to 32.4 and 12.5 to 27.0 which took a lot of pressure off

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FutureCapitalExpenditures

CapitalexpendituresarethereasonIamnotcallingforaimmediategrowthslowingcycle.Capitalexpendituresdropped1.3pointsto35.5inMarchwhichisstilloneofthehighestlevelssincethestartofthisindexin2001.

Page 9: U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire State) increased from 15.5 to 32.4 and 12.5 to 27.0 which took a lot of pressure off

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PricesPaid&ReceivedPricesreceiveddroppedabitfrom23.5to21.4inMarch.However,theyarestillindicatingthatconsumerpricesareabouttosoarhigher.Soareproducerpriceswhohadanotherincreaseto47.3points.Overall,thismeansthatthepressureonbondsremainsverystrongdespitebondsgainingsomestrengthduringthemostrecentstockmarketsell-off.

Page 10: U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire State) increased from 15.5 to 32.4 and 12.5 to 27.0 which took a lot of pressure off

Conclusion

• OfficialISMlikelytohit58.5inMarch• USeconomyshowsfirstsignsofweaknesseventhoughitistooearlytocallit’growthslowing’• Consumerandproducerpricesareverylikelygoingtoacceleratefurther• Morepressureongovernmentbondsandsocalled’yieldtrades’likeconsumerstaples• Companieswillincreasinglyhavetoproducemoreefficientlyinordertostaycompetitiveinthisinflationaccelerationenvironment

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Page 11: U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire State) increased from 15.5 to 32.4 and 12.5 to 27.0 which took a lot of pressure off

TheEnd

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Page 12: U.S. Economy Update - Seeking Alpha...Mar 27, 2018  · regional surveys (Philadelphia & Empire State) increased from 15.5 to 32.4 and 12.5 to 27.0 which took a lot of pressure off

WantToKnowMoreAboutEconomicIndicators?• Article:EstablishASolidMacroViewUsingTheTop-DownMethod• https://seekingalpha.com/article/4033524-establish-solid-macro-view-using-top-method

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US History Ch 15.5

US History Ch 15.5

Network Configuration Manager Readme Version 27.0 Hotfix 310 Troubleshooting and getting help 21 Network Configuration Manager Device Services Support (DSr) Readme Version 27.0 Hotfix

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Manual Sellos Mecanicos 15.5 Español

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Issue 15.5

Issue 15.5

IMA XML 27.0 Disclosure Document Appendix H - WSDL - …IMA XML 27.0 Disclosure Document Appendix H - WSDL - Post Order Document Release March 5, 2010

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