US Economic Status 2012
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7/31/2019 US Economic Status 2012
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Overview
• TheUSeconomyhascreatedover100,000jobsineach
ofthepastsevenmonths.
• Butstillwellbelowthe200,000neededtorapidlybring
downtheunemploymentrate
• whichremainedat8.2%attheendofMarch
2012.
• GDPgrowth,incomeandconsumptionareallpositive,
butaregrowingatbelow-trendrates,andthehousing
marketstillshowsnosignoflife.
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CashFlowAndInterest
• Highoilpricesarepresentingasignificantheadwindto
theUSeconomy.
• whiletheFederalReservecontinuestotrytostimulate
itwithdurable,near-zerointerestratesandthe
possibilityofathirdroundofquantitativeeasing.
• Overall,theeconomyshouldbepoisedforpositivebut
weakGDPgrowthofaround2%in2012and2013.
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Householdconsumption
• Householdconsumptionshowedsignsofeasingattheendof2011andearly2012,
withmuchlowergrowthinspending+1.4%year/yearinJanuary,comparedtothe
long-termaverageof3.3%
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DevelopmentsInInvestment
Business investment in equipment and software has already posted a
strong recovery, and this is expected to continue over a large part of
2012.
Conversely, construction investment continues to suffer greatly from the
state of the housing market
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FiscalPolicyinturmoil
• recentlypresentedhisfiscalyear2013budget,whichwould
likelyincreasethedeficit,andtheRepublicanscounteredwithabudgettocut
spendingandreformentitlements.
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• ThepayrollandBushtaxcutsaresettoexpirejustasareductioninjobless
benefitsandmandatorysequestrationbudgetcutsarise
• Thedebtceilingmayneedtobeliftedagain
• Thepresidentialelectionislikelytofocusrelentlesslyontheeconomyand
thenation’sfinances.Meanwhile,nopresidentsinceWorldWarIIhasever
beenre-electedwithanunemploymentratethishigh.
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Externaltrade
The growth impulse contribution from foreign trade was for a time positive I in 2011, but
it will again become negative from 2012.
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whilethetradeandcurrentaccount
balancesriskremaininginstrongdeficit
underthecombinationof
• (i)USdemandforimports,particularly
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• USTradeFromJan94-2013
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