Comparisoin of Railcar and Bridge Design Loadings for Development of Railroad Bridge Fatigue Loading
US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings · 2020-03-11 · US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings...
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US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings Yardeni Research, Inc. March 18, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box
Transcript of US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings · 2020-03-11 · US Economic Indicators: Railcar Loadings...
US Economic Indicators:Railcar Loadings
Yardeni Research, Inc.
March 18, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
March 18, 2020 / Railcar Loadings www.yardeni.com
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US Railcar Loadings 1Shares of Loadings 2US Railcar Loadings 3-5Carloads 6-7Coal Loadings 8Transportation Indicators & Stocks 9Railcar Loadings & Business Inventories 10ATA Truck Index & Business Inventories 11Railcar Loadings & Crude Oil Production 12Railcar Loadings 13
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022400
450
500
550
600
400
450
500
550
600
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS*(thousand units, 26-wa)
Total (491)
Source: Atlantic Systems.* Carloads plus intermodal.
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Figure 1.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022150
200
250
300
350
400
150
200
250
300
350
400
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS(thousand units, 26-wa)
Carloads
Intermodal
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 2.
US Railcar Loadings
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202230
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS(thousand units, 26-wa)
Intermodal(as a percent of total)
Carloads(as a percent of total)
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 3.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS*
Coal Carloads(as a percent of total car loads)
Grain Carloads(as a percent of total car loads)
* Based on 26-week moving averages.Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 4.
Shares of Loadings
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22250
300
350
400
450
500
250
300
350
400
450
500
3/14
TOTAL RAILCAR LOADINGS EXCLUDING COAL(thousand units, 26-wa)
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 5.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2212
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
3/14
COAL CARLOADINGS(as a percent of total railcar loadings, based on 26-wa)
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 6.
US Railcar Loadings
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS; INTERMODAL(thousand units, 26-wa)
Intermodal: Total
Intermodal ex Trailers
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 7.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202215
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS(thousand units, 26-wa)
Intermodal: Trailers
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 8.
US Railcar Loadings
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
10
15
20
25
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
3/14
Feb
RAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLES
Motor VehiclesLoadings(thousand units, 26-wa)Sales(million units, saar)
Source: Atlantic Systems and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 9.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200
500
800
1100
1400
1700
2000
2300
2600
2
3
4
5
6
7
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS: LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS
Lumber & Wood ProductsLoadings(thousand units, 26-wa, sa)
Housing Starts(thousand units, saar)
Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 10.
US Railcar Loadings
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Figure 11.
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2260
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS(thousand units, 26-wa)
Coal
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 223
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
3/14
Nonmetallic Minerals
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2230
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
3/14
Chemicals & PetroleumProducts
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 225
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
3/14
Pulp & PaperProducts
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 224
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
3/14
Metals & Products
Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association.
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 226
7
8
9
10
11
3/14
Waste & ScrapMaterials
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Carloads
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2230
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS(thousand units, 26-wa)
Chemicals & Petroleum Products
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 12.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 224
6
8
10
12
14
16
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS(thousand units, 26-wa)
Metals & Products
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 13.
Carloads
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202212
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
3/14
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS: COAL(percent based on 26-wa)
Coal CarloadingsAs a Percent of Total Railcar Loadings
As a Percent of Carloads
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 14.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100
200
300
400
500
100
200
300
400
500
3/14
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS EXCLUDING COAL(thousand units, 26-wa)
Total Railcar Loadings Excluding Coal
Total Carloads Excluding Coal
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 15.
Coal Loadings
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22380
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
25
125
225
325
425
525
625
725
825
3/11
3/14
S&P 500 TRANSPORTATION INDEX & RAILCAR LOADINGS
S&P 500 Transportation Index
Total Railcar Loadings(thousand units, 26-wa)
Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 16.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2240
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
25
125
225
325
425
525
625
725
825
3/11
S&P 500 TRANSPORTATION INDEX & ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX
S&P 500 Transportation Index
ATA Truck Tonnage Index(2015=100, 3-ma, sa)
Source: American Trucking Association and Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 17.
Transportation Indicators & Stocks
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89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
3/14
Dec
RAILCAR LOADINGS & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES
Intermodal: Total(thousand units, 26-wa)
Business Inventories(billions of 2012 dollars, sa)
Source: Atlantic Systems and Census Bureau.
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Figure 18.
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22500
1000
1500
2000
2500
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES
Intermodal ex Trailers(thousand units, 26-wa)
Business Inventories(billions of 2012 dollars, sa)
Source: Atlantic Systems and Census Bureau.
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Figure 19.
Railcar Loadings & Business Inventories
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89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22500
1000
1500
2000
2500
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120Jan
Dec
ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES
ATA Truck Tonnage Index(2015=100, 3-ma, sa)
Business Inventories(billions of 2012 dollars, sa)
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Source: American Trucking Association and Census Bureau.
Figure 20.
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
3/17
Dec
S&P 500 TRANSPORATION INDEX & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES
S&P 500 Transportation Index
Business Inventories(billions of 2012 dollars, sa)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 21.
ATA Truck Index & Business Inventories
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 223
5
7
9
11
13
15
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
3/14
3/6
RAILCAR LOADINGS & US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION
Railcar Loadings:Chemicals & Petroleum Products(thousand units, 26-wa)
US Crude Oil Field Production(million barrels per day, nsa)
Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Energy.
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Figure 22.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS: CHEMICALS & PETROLEUM, MOTOR VEHICLES,LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS(thousand units, 26-wa)
Chemicals & PetroleumProducts (44.8)Motor Vehicles (15.7)
Lumber & Wood Products (3.1)
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 23.
Railcar Loadings & Crude Oil Production
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100
150
200
250
300
350
400
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
3/14
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS(thousand units, 26-wa)
Carloads
Carloads Minus Coal
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 24.
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
3/14
3/14
RAILCAR LOADINGS: TOTAL & EX COAL(thousand units, 26-wa)
Railcar Loadings: Total excluding coalRailcar Loadings: Total
Source: Atlantic Systems.
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Figure 25.
Railcar Loadings
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