Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post ...
U.S. Economic Charts
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U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
http://www.dallasfed.org
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Housing Starts and PermitsThousands
Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Recession Housing Starts (Dec 19 release, Nov = 861) Permits Issued (Dec 28 release, Nov = 900)
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Consumer Confidence/Sentiment
Consumer Sentiment: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan
Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board http://www.dallasfed.org
Index
2030405060708090
100110120130140150
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Recession Confidence (Dec 27 release, Dec = 65.1) Sentiment (Dec 21 release, Dec = 72.9)
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Home Sales
Source: Bureau of the Census, National Association of Realtors http://www.dallasfed.org
Thousands of Existing HomesThousands of New Homes
Recession
2,800
3,300
3,800
4,300
4,800
5,300
5,800
6,300
6,800
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
New Home Sales (Dec 27 release, Nov = 377) Existing Home Sales (Dec 20 release, Nov = 4440)
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Initial Claims for Unemploymentand Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor http://www.dallasfed.org
Percent Unemployment
4-week MAThousands of Initial Claims
Recession
3.544.555.566.577.588.599.51010.5
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Initial Claims (Dec 27 release, Dec 22=357) Unemployment Rate (Dec 07 release, Nov=7.7)
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New Orders for Durable Goods
Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org
Billions of Dollars
Recession
7085
100115130145160175190205220235250
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Durable Goods (Dec 21 release, Nov = 220.9) Excl. Transportation (Dec 21 release, Nov = 153.5)
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Nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 21 release, Nov = 0.37
3-year average
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Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 21 release, Nov = 0.58
3-year average
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Personal Income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 21 release, Nov = 0.64
3-year average
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Index of Leading Economic Indicators
Source: The Conference Board http://www.dallasfed.org
Index
70
80
90
100
110
120
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Recession Leading Index (Dec 20 release, Nov = 95.8)
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Real GDP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org
1-quarter % change, annualized
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 20 release, Q3 = 3.13-year average
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Industrial Production
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-4.5-4
-3.5-3
-2.5-2
-1.5-1
-0.50
0.51
1.52
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 14 release, Nov = 1.1
3-year average
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Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
Percent
636567697173757779818385
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Recession CU Rate (Dec 14 release, Nov = 76.6) Historic Average (1948-present)
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Retail Sales
1-month % change
Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 13 release, Nov = 0.27
3-year average
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Retail Sales, Excluding Autos
1-month % change
Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 13 release, Nov = 0.03
3-year average
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U.S. Imports and Exports
Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org
Billions of Dollars
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Recession Exports (Dec 11 release, Oct = 180.5) Imports (Dec 11 release, Oct = 222.8)
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Change in Nonfarm Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
Thousands of jobs
-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100200300400500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 07 release, Nov = 1463-year average
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ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Index
Index
Source : Institute for Supply Management ™ http://www.dallasfed.org
30
40
50
60
70
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 05 release, Nov = 61.2
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Purchasing Managers’ Index
Source: Institute for Supply Management ™ http://www.dallasfed.org
Index
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 03 release, Nov = 49.5
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Real Value of the Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
March 1973 = 100
* Euro Area, Canada, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden
70
80
90
100
110
120
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Exchange Value of the US$ (Dec 03 release, Nov=84.3)
US$ vs Major Currencies* (Dec 03 release, Nov=83.4)
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WAGES AND PRICES
http://www.dallasfed.org
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PCE Price Index
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 21 release, Nov = -0.223-year average
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Core PCE Price Index
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 21 release, Nov = 0.04
3-year average
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Consumer Price Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 14 release, Nov = -0.313-year average
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Core Consumer Price Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 14 release, Nov = 0.113-year average
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Producer Price Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-3-2.5
-2-1.5
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 13 release, Nov = -0.83-year average
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Core Producer Price Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 13 release, Nov = 0.13-year average
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Average Hourly Earnings
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 07 release, Nov = 0.153-year average
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Nonfarm Business Productivity
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-quarter % change, annualized
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 05 release, Q3 = 2.93-year average
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Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Cost
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-quarter % change, annualized
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 05 release, Q3 = -1.93-year average
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Commodity Prices
Source: Commodity Research Bureau http://www.dallasfed.org
1967=100, EOP
Recession
100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Metals (Dec 04 release, Nov=889.7)
KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Raw Industrials (Dec 04 release, Nov=515.3)
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ISM Manufacturing Prices Index
Index
Source : Institute for Supply Management ™ http://www.dallasfed.org
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 03 release, Nov = 52.5
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Employment Cost Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-quarter % change
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Oct 31 release, Q3 = 0.43-year average
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FINANCIAL-SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS
http://www.dallasfed.org
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0102030405060708090
100
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Recession Probability Real-time Neftci probability calculated from 10-yr.--1-yr. Treasury yield spread
Source: Federal Reserve Board; calculations by FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org
Percent
Crosses 70% threshold with a lead of between 5 and 18 months, and averaging 11 months.
Extraordinary monetary policy*
Recession Neftci Recession Probability
*Indicator properties of the yield curve may be distorted during this period due to the zero bound on short-term interest rates and Federal Reserve purchases of long-term Treasuries.
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Real Federal Funds RatePercent
Sources: Target Fed Funds Rate: Federal Reserve Board; SPF Expected Inflation: FRB Philadelphia;U. of Michigan Expected Inflation: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan
http://www.dallasfed.org
-2.07
-3.08-5-4-3-2-101234
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less SPF Expected Inflation
Target Fed Funds Rate (Dec 28) less SPF Expected Inflation (Nov 09)
End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation
Target Fed Funds Rate (Dec 28) less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation (Dec 21)
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Short-Term Interest RatesPercent
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Target Fed Fund Rate (Dec 28 = 0.125)3-Month T-Bill Rate (Dec 28 = 0.01)Discount Window Primary Credit Rate (Dec 27 = 0.75)3-month LIBOR (Dec 31 = 0.306)
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Long-Term Interest RatesPercent
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mortgage Rate (week of Dec 27 = 3.35)10-year T-Bond (week of Dec 28= 1.8)10-year T-Bond (Dec 28 = 1.73)
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Bond SpreadsPercent
Merrill Lynch’s Yield on Low-Grade Corporate Bonds, Moody’s AAA and BAA Corporate Percent
Source: Moody’s Investors Service, Merrill Lynch http://www.dallasfed.org
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
02468
1012141618
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Low-Grade Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Dec 21 = 3.06)Daily (Dec 27 = -3.62)BAA Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Dec 21 = 0.96)Daily (Dec 27 = 0.96)
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Yield CurvePercent
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
3-Month T-Bill Rate (week of Dec 28) 3-Month T-Bill Rate (Dec 28 = 0.01)1-year T-Bill Rate (week of Dec 28) 1-year T-Bill Rate (Dec 28 = 0.15)10-year T-Bond Rate (week of Dec 28) 10-year T-Bond Rate (Dec 28 = 1.73)
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Money Supply: M1
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change, annualized
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 27 release, Nov = -10.793-year average
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Money Supply: M2
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change, annualized
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dec 27 release, Nov = 5.813-year average