U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change and Plant Phenology in the...
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Transcript of U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change and Plant Phenology in the...
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Climate Change and Plant Climate Change and Plant Phenology in the Southeastern Phenology in the Southeastern United StatesUnited States
George R. KishU.S. Geological Survey
Tampa, Florida
E-Mail: [email protected]
Evidence
Key Findings
Temperature
Sea level
Snow cover
© IPCC, 2007
Key Findings – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Ecosystems on all continents affected Globally ~20% to 30% of species will be at
increasingly high risk of extinction by 2100 Conservation practices poorly prepared for
adaptation Effective adaptation will be costly
Projected climate change effects Projected climate change effects for the Southeast by 2090for the Southeast by 2090
Accelerated wildfire frequency – a warmer, longer dry season
Increased human health risks from exposure to heat Increased pest epidemics (pine bark beetles) Sea-level rise in coastal areas Reduced availability of soil moisture to plants Changes in ecosystem community dynamics
Soil drying leading to forest losses and savanna and grassland increases
Both drought and fire play an important role in the forest breakup
Summer Heat
Heat Index = f (temperature, humidity)
Soil MoistureChange
Precipitation Change
Phenology
Phenology - Study of the timing of recurring biological phases, the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of same or different species
Phenophase – Bud break, unfolding of first leaf, flowering, fruiting, turning of leaves, animal migration, emergence, growth stages, breeding, nesting, hibernation, etc.
First Leaf = widest part of green leaf past brown winter bud tips)
Schwartz and Reiter 2000 International. J. Climatology
Syringa vulgaris (common lilac) Syringa chinensis (cloned lilac)
Spring index - first leaf date for lilacsSpring index - first leaf date for lilacs
Schwartz and Reiter, 2000 International. J. Climatology
Trend toward
earlier first leaf date
Hu, Q., Weiss, A., Feng, S., & Baenziger, P.S. (2006) Early winter wheat heading dates and warmer springs in the U.S. Great Plains. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 135:284.
Heading date: when head (spike) on 50% of the Kharkof cultivar emerges from the flag leaf.
Smithonian Natural History Museum
100 plants in D.C. area 89 showed earlier
blooming Deadnettle
Bloom 39 days earlier than in 1970
Issues for Southeastern Phenology
1. Will heat tolerance of sensitive species cause shifts in range?
2. Will water stress along hydrologic gradients cause long-term shifts in plant community structure?
3. Are plants blooming or setting fruit earlier because of climate change?
4. Will these shifts alter species diversity and the function of ecosystems?
Species Range Shift
Many species reach their southernmost range in the Florida peninsula
Provides opportunity to monitor range shifts Challenge – to isolate global climate change
from ecological and local weather processes
Liriodendron tulipifera (tulip tree)
Large (>100 ft tall) deciduous tree typical of the mid-Atlantic region
Southern limit – mid-peninsular Florida
Monitoring phenology of key species will provide evidence of range shifts
Hydrologic Gradient Shift
Soil drying may cause species or community changes
Opportunities for exotic invasive plants Long-term drying may permanently alter
community structure A serious issue for protecting wetlands
USF EcoArea
Xeric
Mesic
Hydric
Land and Water Table Elevation
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
0 100 200 300 400 500
Distance (in ft from site #1)
Ele
va
tio
n (
in f
t a
bo
ve
NG
VD
) Land surfaceelevation
Water levelelevation
Water levelelevation -drought
Hydrologic GradientSandhill(xyric)
Transition (mesic)
Cypress Swamp (hydric)(Source: G.Kish, unpublished
data from USF EcoArea)
Turkey oakTurkey oak
Saw palmettoSaw palmetto
Scrub live oakScrub live oak
Xeric SiteXeric Site
Longleaf pineLongleaf pine
Mesic SiteFerns
Laurel oak
High water lineHigh water line
Bald cypressBald cypress
Hydric Site
Pop ashPop ash
Species Distribution
Species Distribution: Site 6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Fraxinus caroliniana Taxodium distichum
Species
Per
cen
t
Xeric site Longleaf pine, turkey
oak, scrub live oak
Mesic site Laurel oak, slash pine
Hydric site Bald cypress, pop ash
Species Distribution: Site 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Pinus palustris Quercus laevis Quercus geminata
Species
Per
cen
t
Species Distribution: Site 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Quercus laurifolia Pinus elliottii
Species
Per
cen
t
Wet
Dry
Species Abundance
Monitoring Strategies for Change
Life cycle – timing, vulnerability to heat and water stress
Range – northward retreat or elimination of heat-sensitive species; colonization by opportunistic species
Hydrologic gradient - replacement of hydric species along hydrologic gradients in response to drought and hydroperiod changes
Community structure
IntensiveSites
Spatially Extensive Science Networks
Remote Sensing andSynoptic (wall-to-wall) DataD
ecr
easi
ng S
pati
al
Covera
ge
Incr
easi
ng P
roce
ss K
now
led
ge
Data
Qu
alit
y#
of
Measu
rem
ents
USA-NPN Monitoring Framework
Spatially Extensive Volunteer & Education Networks
AmeriFlux
NWS Coop NPS Inv. & Mon. State Ag. Exp. Sta.
Nature Preserves, Campuses
NASA USGS NOAA
Tier 1Tier 1
Tier 2Tier 2
Tier 3Tier 3
Tier 4Tier 4
Southeastern Phenology Network Plans
Uncover Legacy Data Citizen scientists Biological Research Stations and Nature Preserves Botanical Gardens and Herbariums Theses and dissertations
Southeastern Phenology Workshops Implement monitoring protocols for Southeast Select Tier 1, 2, and 3 sites for Region Develop remote sensing approach Design web site Develop priority research agenda