US CLIVAR Summit 2009 US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group Report Co-Chairs: Lisa Goddard...

US CLIVAR Summit 2009

US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group Report

US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group Report

Co-Chairs:Lisa Goddard -- IRI, The Earth Institute of Columbia University Amy Solomon -- CIRES/University of Colorado & NOAA/ESRLArun Kumar -- NOAA/Climate Prediction Center

Co-Chairs:Lisa Goddard -- IRI, The Earth Institute of Columbia University Amy Solomon -- CIRES/University of Colorado & NOAA/ESRLArun Kumar -- NOAA/Climate Prediction Center


US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group

US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group

Formally approved January 2009

Objective 1: To define a framework to distinguish natural variability from anthropogenically forced variability on decadal time scales for the purpose of assessing predictability of decadal-scale climate variations.

Objective 2: Work towards better understanding of decadal variability and predictability through metrics that can be used as a strategy to assess and validate

decadal climate prediction simulations.


MembershipMembership

US Membership:Jim Carton (University of Maryland) Tom Delworth (NOAA/GFDL)Clara Deser (NCAR)Ichiro Fukumori (JPL/NASA)Lisa Goddard (IRI/Columbia University)Ben Kirtman (University of Miami)Arun Kumar (NOAA/CPC)Yochanan Kushnir (Columbia University)Matt Newman (CIRES/NOAA)Amy Solomon (CIRES/NOAA)Dan Vimont (University of Wisconsin)

Ex-officio Members:Arthur Greene (IRI/Columbia University)Gabi Hegerl (University of Edinburgh)Jerry Meehl - representing WGCM (NCAR)Doug Smith (UK Met Office)Tim Stockdale - representing WGSIP (ECMWF)

US Membership:Jim Carton (University of Maryland) Tom Delworth (NOAA/GFDL)Clara Deser (NCAR)Ichiro Fukumori (JPL/NASA)Lisa Goddard (IRI/Columbia University)Ben Kirtman (University of Miami)Arun Kumar (NOAA/CPC)Yochanan Kushnir (Columbia University)Matt Newman (CIRES/NOAA)Amy Solomon (CIRES/NOAA)Dan Vimont (University of Wisconsin)

Ex-officio Members:Arthur Greene (IRI/Columbia University)Gabi Hegerl (University of Edinburgh)Jerry Meehl - representing WGCM (NCAR)Doug Smith (UK Met Office)Tim Stockdale - representing WGSIP (ECMWF)


Scientific Focus of Telecons Scientific Focus of Telecons 1: How best to separate natural decadal variability

from anthropogenically forced decadal variations? 1: How best to separate natural decadal variability

from anthropogenically forced decadal variations?

(Kushnir 2009)


Scientific Focus of Telecons Scientific Focus of Telecons 2: How do we address the issue of potential projection and

interaction between the natural and forced variability?2: How do we address the issue of potential projection and

interaction between the natural and forced variability?

The mid-1970s climate shift in the Pacific was likely a combination of internally generated decadal variability and a forced response

Forced response (~25%)

Inherent decadal (~50%)

Inherent and forced (~25% each)

(Meehl, Hu, and Santer, 2009: The mid-1970s climate shift in the Pacific and the relative roles of forced versus inherent decadal variability, J. Climate, 22, 780--792.)


TimelineTimeline June 2009: 1st Group Meeting and Session on “Advances

in Decadal Climate Prediction” at the CCSM Workshop in Breckenridge, CO.

• Fall 2009: Submit white paper on “What additional skill we can expect from the initialized decadal predictions, and why?”

• Winter 2009/10: Group Meeting? (RSMAS Wrkshp)

• Spring 2010(?): Announcement of Opportunity by funding agencies for small grants to investigate decadal predictability in the AR5 initialized decadal climate projections

• Fall 2010: Group Meeting? (WGOMD Mtg)

• Spring 2011: Meeting on “Defining Metrics Relevant to Dynamical Decadal Predictions”

• Summer 2011: Write workshop report and WG wrap-up focused on decadal prediction metrics

June 2009: 1st Group Meeting and Session on “Advances in Decadal Climate Prediction” at the CCSM Workshop in Breckenridge, CO.

• Fall 2009: Submit white paper on “What additional skill we can expect from the initialized decadal predictions, and why?”

• Winter 2009/10: Group Meeting? (RSMAS Wrkshp)

• Spring 2010(?): Announcement of Opportunity by funding agencies for small grants to investigate decadal predictability in the AR5 initialized decadal climate projections

• Fall 2010: Group Meeting? (WGOMD Mtg)

• Spring 2011: Meeting on “Defining Metrics Relevant to Dynamical Decadal Predictions”

• Summer 2011: Write workshop report and WG wrap-up focused on decadal prediction metrics


Coordination with other Working GroupsCoordination with other Working Groups

US CLIVAR AMOC Science Team would like… Input on separation of forced and natural

components for AMOC Metrics for evaluating the AMOC in model

simulations

CLIVAR Working Group on Ocean Model Development

DPWG invited to participate in next WG meeting in October 2010, along with AMOC Team

NCAR Climate Change & Climate Variability WGs Running additional experiments at request of DPWG


Coordination with other Working Groups (continued)Coordination with other Working Groups (continued)

NCAR Climate Change and Climate Variability Working Groups

Twin perfect model experiments that can be used as a testbed for the DPWG metrics study

Twin perfect model experiments that can be used as a testbed for the DPWG metrics study

Time series of CO2 concentrations (ppm) for scenarios B1, A1B, and A2, twentieth-century stabilization from 2000 to 2100, twenty-first century stabilization from 2100 to 2300 for B1 and A1B; (b) time series of globally averaged surface airtemperature anomalies (°C), 2000–2300, for the various experiments (from Meehl et al. 2006, JC).

* CCSM3* 40 member ensembles* 60-year integrations

Twin #1 : A1B Scenario (runs done)Twin #2 : Year 2000 Stabilization


Involvement in WorkshopsInvolvement in Workshops

The Eighth Workshop on Decadal Climate Variability Decadal Climate Predictability and Prediction: Where Are

We?12-15 October, 2009; St. Michaels, Maryland

Organizing committee: Lisa GoddardLisa Goddard (IRI), Arun KumarArun Kumar (NOAA-CPC), Mojib Latif (IFM-GEOMAR), Tong Lee (NASA-JPL), Jerry MeehlJerry Meehl (NCAR), Vikram Mehta (CRCES), Tony Rosati

(GFDL), Jeff Knight (Hadley Centre), and Detlef Stammer (Univ. of Hamburg)

The Eighth Workshop on Decadal Climate Variability Decadal Climate Predictability and Prediction: Where Are

We?12-15 October, 2009; St. Michaels, Maryland

Organizing committee: Lisa GoddardLisa Goddard (IRI), Arun KumarArun Kumar (NOAA-CPC), Mojib Latif (IFM-GEOMAR), Tong Lee (NASA-JPL), Jerry MeehlJerry Meehl (NCAR), Vikram Mehta (CRCES), Tony Rosati

(GFDL), Jeff Knight (Hadley Centre), and Detlef Stammer (Univ. of Hamburg)

Predicting the climate of the coming decades January 11-15, 2010; RSMAS, Miami, FL

Workshop goal: The goal of this workshop is to bring together people from different communities who have shared interests in predicting the climate of the coming decades. Key elements: Socioeconomic considerations, Mechanisms of decadal variability, Decadal predictions & forced climate change, Applications, Long-term risk management, Marine ecosystems, Water resources, Public lands, Coastal Management, Airports, Metropolitan planning organizations


White Paper in Preparation White Paper in Preparation Focus:Summarize and critique methodologies to distinguish natural decadal variations from anthropogenically-forced variations in order to assess the potential contribution of initialization for decadal predictions.

Questions addressed: Can we estimate the relative amplitude, and spatial structure, of natural and forced decadal variability? What approaches can be used to separate natural decadal variability from anthropogenically forced decadal variations? How does the analysis depend on the chosen method? How does forced variability interact with the natural variability? What robust estimates of observed trends and/or decadal variations exist to validate the models?

…To be submitted to BAMS September 2009

Focus:Summarize and critique methodologies to distinguish natural decadal variations from anthropogenically-forced variations in order to assess the potential contribution of initialization for decadal predictions.

Questions addressed: Can we estimate the relative amplitude, and spatial structure, of natural and forced decadal variability? What approaches can be used to separate natural decadal variability from anthropogenically forced decadal variations? How does the analysis depend on the chosen method? How does forced variability interact with the natural variability? What robust estimates of observed trends and/or decadal variations exist to validate the models?

…To be submitted to BAMS September 2009


Assembling Databases for Metrics Study

Assembling Databases for Metrics Study

1)CMIP3 Database

2)Twin perfect model experiments with

CCSM 40-member ensembles

3)Smith et al data (initialized HadCM3

expt.s)

4)Ben Kirtman’s CCSM simulations

5)Anticipating CMIP5 Decadal Prediction

Expt.s

6)What else?


Planning for Broad Community Participation in Analysis of Decadal

Prediction Experiments

Planning for Broad Community Participation in Analysis of Decadal

Prediction Experiments

CMEP (2004): Coupled Model Evaluation Project 19 Funded Proposals (+ 2 lab funded) 18 Papers published (at least)

DRICOMP (2007): DRought In COupled Models Project 16 Funded Proposals Papers to Journal of Climate special issue on

drought (together with results from US CLIVAR Drought WG)

DECPREP (2010): DECadal PREdictability Project

CMEP (2004): Coupled Model Evaluation Project 19 Funded Proposals (+ 2 lab funded) 18 Papers published (at least)

DRICOMP (2007): DRought In COupled Models Project 16 Funded Proposals Papers to Journal of Climate special issue on

drought (together with results from US CLIVAR Drought WG)

DECPREP (2010): DECadal PREdictability Project

US CLIVAR Summit 2009 US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group Report Co-Chairs: Lisa Goddard...

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