US and Florida Construction Outlook 2018-2019 · US Macroeconomic Overview Negatives: –...
Transcript of US and Florida Construction Outlook 2018-2019 · US Macroeconomic Overview Negatives: –...
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Dodge Data & Analytics
US and Florida Construction Outlook
2018-2019
November 6, 2018
Steve Jones
Senior Director, Industry Insights Research
Dodge Data & Analytics
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Presenter
Stephen Jones
BA: Johns Hopkins University; MBA: Wharton
19 years in Architecture/Engineering
▪Principal and Board of Directors of major A/E firm Burt Hill (now Stantec)
4 years in Construction Technology
▪Vice President, Primavera Systems (now Oracle)
15 years with Dodge Data & Analytics (formerly McGraw-Hill Construction)
▪Senior Director, Industry Insights Research
▪Focus on how economic, technology and project delivery trends are
impacting the global construction industry
Dodge Global NetworkLeading source of data, forecast and analysis
about global construction
SweetsLeading source of information about
building products
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Industry Insights Research: 50+ reports free at:
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TECHNOLOGY/INNOVATION
Measuring BIM
BIM for ContractorsInformation Mobility
BIM for Owners
SUSTAINABILITY
Green Homes Green Schools
World Green Trends Design for Health
PRACTICES/PROCESSES
Managing Uncertainty
Lean Safety
Delivery Systems
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Presenter
Stephen Jones
Co-Author SMPS textbook
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Today’s Agenda
– Quick Macro Outlook
– US/FL Housing Outlook
– US/FL Nonresidential Building Outlook
– Emerging Trends That Will Impact the Future of AEC
Amazon Fulfillment Center (Lake Nona)Orlando, FL $132 milGround breaking: Oct. 2017
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US Macroeconomic OverviewConstruction is cyclical
7.5years
>7years
9years
20years
?
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US Macroeconomic OverviewPositives:
– Lower business taxes boost corporate profits
– Healthy job growth despite low unemployment rate (tightening job mkt)
– Rising business investment (nonres structures +14.2% in Q1-18)
– Corporate profits up 4.4% in 2017
– Rising consumer confidence
– Boost from tax reform/rollback in bank regulation
– Improving global growth
GDP growth to improve in 2018, but will then slow in 2019-2020
% Chg
2017 +2.2%
2018 (F) +3.0%
2019 (F) +2.1%
2020 (F) +0.9%
2021 (F) +1.0%
2022 (F) +2.6%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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US Macroeconomic OverviewNegatives:
– Tightening job market/labor shortages increasing
– Inflation picking up steam; construction materials prices on the rise
– Federal Reserve is raising interest rates
– Concerns about international trade and tariffs
– Uncertain/changing regulatory environment
GDP growth to improve in 2018, but will then slow in 2019-2020
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
% Chg
2017 +2.2%
2018 (F) +3.0%
2019 (F) +2.1%
2020 (F) +0.9%
2021 (F) +1.0%
2022 (F) +2.6%
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U.S. and Florida Construction Outlook
Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & CasinoHollywood, FL$875 million
Ground Breaking: June 2017
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US Total Construction Starts
Construction starts are reaching their peak for this cycle
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Total combines
Residential,
Nonresidential, &
Nonbuilding starts
3% -2%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total U.S. Construction Starts
Billions of Dollars
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US Total Construction Starts – Big Picture
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Dodge Data & Analytics
US Construction Outlook
Billions of Dollars
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Construction 689.3 735.2 779.9 806.9 794.4
14% 7% 6% 3% -2%
Nonresidential Bldg 228.7 256.6 283.6 298.5 294.2
2% 12% 11% 5% -1%
Residential Bldg 273.9 297.3 306.9 322.9 310.1
17% 9% 3% 5% -4%
Nonbuilding 186.7 181.3 189.4 185.4 190.1
27% -3% 4% -2% 3%
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FL Total Construction Starts
Construction starts peaking in Florida as well
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Total combines
Residential,
Nonresidential, &
Nonbuilding starts
4%-8%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Florida Construction Starts
Billions of Dollars
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FL Total Construction Starts – Big Picture
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Dodge Data & Analytics
Florida Construction Outlook
in Billions of Dollars
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Construction 51.6 56.5 60.5 63.0 58.2
29% 10% 7% 4% -8%
Nonresidential Bldg 12.3 13.1 16.7 16.9 15.6
41% 7% 27% 1% -8%
Residential Bldg 28.8 32.5 32.1 37.1 32.9
20% 13% -1% 16% -11%
Nonbuilding 10.5 10.9 11.7 8.9 9.8
42% 4% 8% -24% 9%
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Today’s Agenda
– Quick Macro Outlook
– US/FL Housing Outlook
– US/FL Nonresidential Building Outlook
– Emerging Trends That Will Impact the Future of AEC
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US Single Family Housing StartsSingle family housing never came close to pre-recession (bubble) peak, so there’s more room to grow. When it comes, downturn will be (generally) mild.
➢Mortgage rates remain low, but are rising
➢Home sales softer, but volatile
➢ Starts remain historically low – more room for growth?
➢ Lower taxes to offset effects of SALT/MID caps except in selected counties around the nation
6% 0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total U.S. Single Family Starts
Billions of Dollars
Source: Dodge Data & AnalyticsState and Local TaxesMortgage Interest Deduction
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FL Single Family Housing StartsSingle family housing never came close to pre-recession (bubble) peak, so there’s more room to grow. When it comes, downturn will be (generally) mild.
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢Caps on the deductibility of state and local taxes (part of the new tax cut legislation) to negatively impact large parts of southern Florida
14%-8%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Florida Single Family Housing Starts
Billions of Dollars
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Single Family Housing Starts
Large pockets of FL will be negatively affected by SALT* deduction cap
Source: Internal Revenue Service, U.S. Census Bureau, Dodge Data & Analytics
Red counties indicate average SALT
deduction > $10,000
*State and
Local Taxes
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Single Family Housing StartsFewer FL counties affected by cap on mortgage interest deduction (MID)
Source: Internal Revenue Service, FFIEC, HMDA
Most At-Risk Counties
Marin CA
San Mateo CA
Pitkin CO
San Miguel CO
Dukes MA
Nantucket MA
Summit UT
Teton WY
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US Multifamily Housing Starts
Multifamily downturn will be more mild than last, but more pronounced than downturn in single family housing
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢ Large amount of new supply has come on the market
➢Rental markets remain tight
➢Demographics are supportive
➢ Large, mixed use buildings providing support
3%
-15%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total U.S. Multifamily Housing Starts
Billions of Dollars
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FL Multifamily Housing Starts
Stronger multifamily expansion means steeper downturn coming up
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
22%
-22%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Florida Multifamily Housing Starts
Billions of Dollars
➢ Florida market has recovered remarkably from housing bubble
➢ Florida (esp. Miami) continues to build lots of new apartments and condos
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US Multifamily Housing StartsMultifamily vacancy rates are starting to inch upward
Source: CB Richard Ellis Econometric Advisors
2018Q1 = 5.0%
2009 Cyclical High = 7.1%
Percent of Available Space
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US Multifamily Housing StartsHousing affordability continues to favor rental market
Source: National Association of Realtors
The Housing Affordability Index measures whether or not the typical family can qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home.
More Affordable
Less Affordable
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US Multifamily Housing Starts
Homeownership among Millennials remains low, but may begin to rise
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Millennials
Gen X
Younger Baby Boomers
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FL Multifamily Housing Starts
Miami remains top market for apartment starts, but was down sharply in 2017
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Dodge Data & AnalyticsTop Florida Metros for Apartment Construction StartsMillions of Dollars
Ranking Metro Area 2016 2017 % Chg
1 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 5,447 2,988 -45%
2 Orlando, FL 1,196 1,433 20%
3 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 1,264 890 -30%
4 Jacksonville, FL 301 402 34%
5 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 210 298 42%
6 Tallahassee, FL 78 263 236%
7 Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL 363 237 -35%
8 Lakeland, FL 137 154 13%
9 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL 106 119 12%
10 Naples-Marco Island, FL 208 113 -46%
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Today’s Agenda
– Quick Macro Outlook
– US/FL Housing Outlook
– US/FL Nonresidential Building Outlook
– Emerging Trends That Will Impact the Future of AEC
Orlando International Airport South Terminal COrlando, FL$1.8 billion
Ground Breaking: Feb 2017
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US Nonresidential Building Starts
Dollar value has exceeded previous peak, but square footage has not
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Nonresidential
combines
commercial,
industrial, and
institutional building
starts
5% -1%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total U.S. Nonresidential Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
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US Nonresidential Building Starts
Dodge Data & Analytics
US Construction Outlook
Billions of Dollars
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nonresidential Bldg 228.7 256.6 283.6 298.5 294.2
2% 12% 11% 5% -1%
Commercial Bldg 93.3 114.3 115.7 120.0 116.3
11% 23% 1% 4% -3%
Institutional Bldg 110.1 121.9 142.4 147.8 149.0
5% 11% 17% 4% 1%
Manufacturing Bldg 25.3 20.3 25.5 30.7 28.9
-29% -20% 26% 20% -6%
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
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FL Nonresidential Building Starts
Stronger recovery in Florida means somewhat sharper dip
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
1%-8%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Florida Nonresidential Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
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FL Nonresidential Building Starts
Dodge Data & Analytics
Florida Construction Outlook
in Billions of Dollars
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nonresidential Bldg 12.3 13.1 16.7 16.9 15.6
41% 7% 27% 1% -8%
Commercial Bldg 6.1 6.7 8.7 9.4 8.2
27% 10% 30% 8% -12%
Institutional Bldg 6.1 6.0 7.8 6.9 7.1
64% -2% 29% -12% 3%
Manufacturing Bldg 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.3
-57% 420% -52% 198% -53%
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
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US Commercial Building Starts
Commercial construction has made mixed progress
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Commercial combines
stores, offices,
warehouses, hotels, and
auto/garage sector
4% -3%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total U.S. Commercial Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
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US Commercial Building Starts
Dodge Data & Analytics
US Construction Outlook
Billions of Dollars
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Retail Stores 20.4 21.0 20.0 19.4 19.6
12% 3% -5% -3% 1%
Warehouses 15.3 19.8 23.0 23.9 22.1
25% 30% 16% 4% -7%
Offices 13.6 17.3 16.8 17.7 16.1
18% 28% -3% 5% -9%
Hotels 31.4 40.8 41.7 44.2 44.7
4% 30% 2% 6% 1%
Auto/Garages 12.6 15.3 14.3 14.8 13.8
6% 21% -6% 3% -6%
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
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FL Commercial Building Starts
Commercial construction has reached its peak in Florida
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
8%
-12%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Florida Commercial Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
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FL Commercial Building Starts
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Dodge Data & Analytics
Florida Construction Outlook
in Mllions of Dollars
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Retail Stores 1,518 1,660 2,085 1,789 1,926
25% 9% 26% -14% 8%
Warehouses 1,081 1,561 1,874 2,071 1,847
75% 44% 20% 10% -11%
Offices 685 1,032 1,274 1,392 1,479
-29% 51% 23% 9% 6%
Hotels 974 1,062 1,977 2,333 1,380
3% 9% 86% 18% -41%
Auto/Garages 1,816 1,348 1,463 1,772 1,559
78% -26% 8% 21% -12%
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Commercial Building Macro Conditions
Demand for CRE loans is falling and standards are tightening
Source: U.S Federal Reserve Board
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US Retail Building StartsStore construction struggled to make gains throughout expansion
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢Online sales continue to gain share
➢Mixed-use construction providing some support
➢ Store renovations driving activity (no expansion)
-3% 1%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total U.S. Retail Store Starts
Billions of Dollars
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US Retail Building Starts
Retail square feet per project shrank during recession, hasn’t come back
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
U.S. Retail Square Feet per Project
(000s)
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FL Retail Building StartsStore construction in Florida is stronger but more volatile than US
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
-14%8%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Florida Retail Starts
Billions of Dollars
➢ Seminole Hard Rock Hotel-Casino with retail (2017); Dania Pointe Retail/Entertainment (2017); Bal Harbour Shops expansion (2018)
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FL Retail Building Starts
Retail square feet per project is shrinking in Florida too
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Florida Retail Square Feet per Project
(000s)
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Partial year
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US Retail Building Starts
Retail chains ranked by year-to-date starts value – through August 2018
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Dodge Data & AnalyticsTop Retail Chains Ranked by Construction Starts
January-August for Each Year in Millions of Dollars
Rank Retail Chains 2016 2017 2018 Rank Retail Chains 2016 2017 2018
1 $1,217 $984 $864 6 $179 $144 $145
-7% -19% -12% 87% -20% 1%
2 $105 $224 $249 7 $69 $72 $128
-15% 113% 11% 39% 5% 77%
3 $194 $88 $176 8 $61 $132 $128
58% -55% 100% 122% 118% -4%
4 $213 $204 $155 9 $285 $110 $83
21% -4% -24% 27% -62% -24%
5 $97 $133 $148 10 $93 $99 $80
157% 38% 11% 10% 7% -19%
Nordstrom Stores
McDonald's Restaurant
Menard's
Kroger Grocery StoreDollar General
Target
Publix Super MarketWalmart
Aldi Food Store
Costco Warehouse Store
➢ Retail recovery has generally been about grocery
and dollar stores, but not big box or department
stores – even though Giants reflect all
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US Hotel Building StartsAfter strong expansion, hotel construction topping out in 2018
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢ Business & leisure travel rising
➢ Convention centers and casinos performing well & driving hotel starts
5%-9%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total U.S. Hotel Starts
Billions of Dollars
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FL Hotel Building Starts
Florida hotel construction surges in 2017-2018, but not sustainable
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Deltona all see major increases
➢ Seminole Hard Rock Hotel-Casino in Hollywood & Tampa (2017); Daytona convention center hotel (2017); new Marriott Hotels in Orlando & Tampa (2018)
18%
-41%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Florida Hotel Starts
Billions of Dollars
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US Hotel Building Starts
Hotel occupancy leveling off and YOY revenue growth easing
Source: CB Richard Ellis Econometric Advisors
2018Q2
➢Occupancy rate = 70.2%
➢RevPAR = +4.0% vs. year ago
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FL Hotel Building StartsHotel construction still strong in many top metro areas
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Dodge Data & AnalyticsTop Florida Metros for Hotel Construction StartsMillions of Dollars
Ranking Metro Area 2016 2017 % Chg
1 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 439.5 891.4 103%
2 Orlando, FL 264.8 414.5 57%
3 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 105.3 259.0 146%
4 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL 69.6 200.0 187%
5 Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL 70.0 59.3 -15%
6 Jacksonville, FL 37.6 21.9 -42%
7 Gainesville, FL 16.2 21.2 31%
8 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 0.0 19.0 --
9 Ocala, FL 0.9 11.7 1282%
10 Lakeland, FL 6.5 11.3 74%
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US Office Building Starts
Office starts to reach peak in 2018-19
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢Office employment continues to rise, pushing demand higher
➢Data centers/HQs primary areas of growth
➢New supply driving vacancy rates higher, which will slow starts
6% 1%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total U.S. Office Starts
Billions of Dollars
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US Office Building Starts
Data centers have become a larger share of office construction
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
2018 thru June
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US Office Building StartsSize of office buildings has increased
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
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US Office Building Starts
Office vacancies move higher, while employment growth flattens
Source: CB Richard Ellis Econometric Advisors
2018Q2
Vacancy rate = 13.0%
(2010 Cyclical High was 16.8%)
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FL Office Building Starts
After years of hesitation, Florida office starts see healthy gains
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
9%6%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Florida Office Starts
Billions of Dollars
➢ Mega-projects not
driving this expansion
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FL Office Building StartsMiami, Orlando dominate Florida office starts
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Dodge Data & AnalyticsTop Florida Metros for Office Construction StartsMillions of Dollars
Ranking Metro Area 2016 2017 % Chg
1 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 419.7 535.6 28%
2 Orlando, FL 118.4 229.3 94%
3 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 87.1 134.4 54%
4 Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL 58.1 71.5 23%
5 Jacksonville, FL 85.9 69.4 -19%
6 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL 31.4 46.4 48%
7 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 39.5 40.8 3%
8 Tallahassee, FL 15.7 25.8 64%
9 Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, FL 13.8 24.4 76%
10 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 18.5 17.2 -7%
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Institutional Building Outlook
Lee Memorial Gulf Coast Medical Center Fort Meyers, FL
$300 millionGround Breaking: Dec 2017
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US Institutional Building Starts
Institutional starts to take the helm from commercial sector
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
Institutional consists of education, dormitories, healthcare, government bldgs, religious bldgs, recreation bldgs, and transportation buildings
4% 1%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total U.S. Institutional Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
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FL Institutional Building Starts
Florida institutional building pulls back in 2018, up modestly in 2019
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
-12% 3%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Florida Institutional Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
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US Education Building StartsSolid growth expected for education sector
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢ School bond measures are on the rise
➢ Stock market gains help boost private university spending
➢But, US enrollment growth is slowing
10%7%
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total U.S. Education Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
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US Education Building StartsPublic school enrollment growth is strongest in South and West
Source: National Center for Education Statistics
K-12 Public School Enrollment Growth
2017-2026, Percent Change
FL to see
moderate gains
in school
enrollment
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US Education Building Starts
College enrollments continue to climb, growth rates slowing
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢Bump caused by the Great Recession – decline in jobs encouraged more to return to college
➢ Enrollments have now returned to longer-term pattern, although rate of growth is slowing
-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
U.S. College/University Enrollments
(000s)
Enrollments (000s) Annual Percent Change
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FL Education Building StartsFlorida education sector receives a boost
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢ Public school construction hit hard with housing market debacle, but now on the mend
➢ Florida college starts show surprising strength over past few years
-4%
33%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Florida Education Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
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FL Education Building Starts
K-12 starts are larger, but more volatile than college/university starts
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢ In 2006, the dollar value of K-12 starts was 8.1 times the size of college starts, but fell to just 1.1 times in 2012
➢Growth in college starts has begun to narrow gap again
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
Florida K-12 School vs College Construction Starts(Millions of Dollars)
College
K-12
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US Healthcare Building Starts
Healthcare sees long period of uncertainty resulting in flat starts
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢New technology, aging buildings, and demographics (aging population) supportive of growth
➢Uncertainty in national healthcare policy continues to plague growth
➢Hospital mergers/acquisitions accelerating
0%6%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total U.S. Healthcare Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
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FL Healthcare Building Starts
In Florida, higher levels materialize after years of volatility
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
9% 4%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Florida Healthcare Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
➢ Florida’s large elderly
population encourages
gains in healthcare
building
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US Healthcare Building StartsStates with largest population growth (Total and Age 65+), 2010-2030
Source: Moody’s Analytics
In Florida,
demand for
healthcare
services will
remain strong.
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FL Healthcare Building StartsClinic/nursing home starts grab larger share of total health starts
➢Clinics dominated in 1990s as HMOs grew
➢Hospital mergers pushed construction in 2000s
➢Clinics once again gaining dominance
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
Florida Clinic vs. Hospital Construction Starts
(Thousands of Square Feet)
Clinics/Nursing Facils
Hospitals
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US Recreation Building Starts
Recreation starts to see 2018 surge
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢ Includes casinos, convention centers, sports arenas (with roofs), student centers
➢ Large sports-related and convention center construction projects dominate construction activity
24%
-14%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total U.S. Recreational Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
Includes Oakland (Las
Vegas) Raiders NFL Stadium
($1.3Bil), WA state Conv Cntr
($764Mil), Ronald Perelman
WTC Perf Arts Complex
($363Mil)
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FL Recreation Building Starts
Recreation starts lower in Florida after 2015-16 surge; level still healthy
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢ 2015-16 dominated by large projects
• 2015 = Miami Beach convention center
• 2016 = Skyplex Entertainment Complex (Orlando), Disney World Star Wars Theme Park, Telemundo Broadcast Studios (Miami)
10% -3%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Florida Recreational Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
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FL Recreation Building Starts
Largest recreation projects started in Florida, 2015-2018
Dodge Data & AnalyticsFlorida's Largest Amusement Projects, 2015-2018
Project Title City Started Mil $
Miami Beach Convention Center Renov/Expansion Miami Beach 2015:12 477.6
Skyplex Entertainment Complex Orlando 2016:12 242.4
Seminole Hard Rock Recreational Facility Hollywood 2017:06 156.4
Star Wars Park Expan - Walt Disney World Lake Buena Vista 2016:04 135.0
Telemundo Broadcast Studios Miami 2016:03 120.7
Toy Story Land Hollywood Studios, Walt Disney World Lake Buena Vista 2016:04 108.0
Turnberry Isle Conference Center Aventura 2018:01 60.9
Marco Island Marriott Conference Center Marco Island 2015:03 60.4
Stephen O'Connell Center (Add/Renov) Gainesville 2015:12 60.0
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FL Recreation Building Starts
Mix of recreation starts in Florida, 2017-2018
Dodge Data & AnalyticsFlorida Construction StartsMillions of Dollars
9 mo 2017 9 mo 2018 % Chg
Arenas/Coliseums 0.0 0.0 --
Auditoriums 0.0 5.0 --
Bowling Alleys 0.0 0.1 --
Clubs and Lodges 97.2 116.1 19%
Communications Buildings 22.4 15.4 -31%
Exhibition Halls 27.4 69.8 155%
Gyms/Field Houses/Indoor Pools 143.4 121.1 -16%
Misc Amusement/Recreational* 329.9 248.8 -25%
Theaters 42.6 69.3 63%
* Parks, etc.
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US Recreation Building StartsPro sports attendance remains solid; tops 130 million in 2016
Source: MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL
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US Transportation Building StartsTransportation starts remain elevated
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
➢ Stabilization in federal policy aids starts
➢Rising air traffic and revenues spur airport rehabs
-21%-15%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total U.S. Transportation Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
LaGuardia, LAX, Farley
Redevel (NYC Penn Station),
Orlando Intl
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FL Transportation Building StartsTransportation starts remain elevated
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
-70%
-66%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Florida Transportation Bldg Starts
Billions of Dollars
Orlando Internat’l Airport’s
South Terminal C project
($1.8 bil)
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US Transportation Building Starts
The number of air passengers is at a record high, and still growing
Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation
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Today’s Agenda
– Quick Macro Outlook
– US/FL Housing Outlook
– US/FL Nonresidential Building Outlook
– Emerging Trends That Will Impact the Future of AEC
![Page 71: US and Florida Construction Outlook 2018-2019 · US Macroeconomic Overview Negatives: – Tightening job market/labor shortages increasing – Inflation picking up steam; construction](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011902/5f0dc9d77e708231d43c171b/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
© 2016 Autodesk, Inc.
Betterunderstanding
98%
Source: Dodge Data & Analytics • Business Value of of BIM for Owners• Business Value of BIM for Construction in Global Markets
Greater cost predictability
72%
Improvedschedule
85%
Fewererrors
85%
Optimizeddesign
92%
Business value of BIM
CERTAINTY
![Page 72: US and Florida Construction Outlook 2018-2019 · US Macroeconomic Overview Negatives: – Tightening job market/labor shortages increasing – Inflation picking up steam; construction](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011902/5f0dc9d77e708231d43c171b/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
ConnectedDigital Data &Technologies
Big Data
Computational Design
Simulation / Analysis
Internet of Things
Industrialized Construction
Machine learning
Era of Connection. We’re going beyond simply optimizing a design; we have to
optimize how a product is built (and the
systems that interconnect with it
![Page 73: US and Florida Construction Outlook 2018-2019 · US Macroeconomic Overview Negatives: – Tightening job market/labor shortages increasing – Inflation picking up steam; construction](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011902/5f0dc9d77e708231d43c171b/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Today’s Agenda
– Quick Macro Outlook
– US/FL Housing Outlook
– US/FL Nonresidential Building Outlook
– Emerging Trends That Will Impact the Future of AEC
AI (Artificial
Intelligence)
for Design
![Page 74: US and Florida Construction Outlook 2018-2019 · US Macroeconomic Overview Negatives: – Tightening job market/labor shortages increasing – Inflation picking up steam; construction](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011902/5f0dc9d77e708231d43c171b/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Kiewit. Driven by projects. Built by YOU.
2015 Annual MeetingAI for Design
SCOPE
(1) Housing buildings
● substructure ● shell ● interiors ● services
OBJECTIVES
(1) Minimize life-cycle cost
(2) Minimize carbon footprint
VARIABLES
(1) Number of buildings: 3 - 4
(2) Number of stories: 5 - 8
(3) Building footprint: H-shape
(4) Building orientation: 0-360°
CONSTRAINTS
(1) Gross Floor Area (GFA): 1,500m2
(2) Distance to site perimeter: >20m
(3) Distance between building: >20m
DESIGN SPACE SIZE
Possible design configurations: 1.46E11
Design Problem:
1.4611 permutationsSource: Stanford CIFE
Design Teams: Developing more fully-reasoned designs
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Kiewit. Driven by projects. Built by YOU.
2015 Annual Meeting
285k
165
195
210
225
180
Results: Life-Cycle Cost vs. Carbon Footprint
275k 280k 290k 295k285k
Carbon Footprint (met tons CO2e)
Life
Cyc
le C
ost
(U
SD
, M
illio
ns)
+
KEY
Baseline
Lowest Cost
Lowest Carbon
Footprint
3 Buildings, 5 Stories
3 Buildings, 6 Stories
3 Buildings, 7 Stories
3 Buildings, 8 Stories
4 Buildings, 5 Stories
4 Buildings, 6 Stories
4 Buildings, 7 Stories
4 Buildings, 8 Stories
Infeasible Solution
Design Problem: 1.4611 permutations
Source: Stanford CIFE
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Kiewit. Driven by projects. Built by YOU.
2015 Annual Meeting Configuration
Life-Cycle Performance
Capital
Operational
Baseline Design1560
Number of buildings: 3
Number of floors: 6
Baseline Design1560
140 122
5848
27 26
259 250
(-$27M)
(-10kt)
COST (USD, Millions) IMPACT (met kt CO2e)
Results: Design #1560
Source: Stanford CIFE
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Today’s Agenda
– Quick Macro Outlook
– US/FL Housing Outlook
– US/FL Nonresidential Building Outlook
– Emerging Trends That Will Impact the Future of AEC
Visualization
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© 2016 Autodesk, Inc.
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Source:ICA
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Source:ICA
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CERTAINTY
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Today’s Agenda
– Quick Macro Outlook
– US/FL Housing Outlook
– US/FL Nonresidential Building Outlook
– Key Trends Impacting the Future of AEC
Model-driven
Design-for-
Manufacture(Mass
Customization)
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DfM
BOEINGEfficiency through Prefabrication
TOYOTAStandard Components Across Models
PROJECT FROGPrefabricated Component Buildings
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A Frog for every functionProject Frog has delivered over 100 retail, education, healthcare, and data center buildings saving clients time and money
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91
Delivered FasterKaiser Baseline vs. Component Design-Build
- LEED Silver- 9,000 square feet- 16 exam rooms supporting 9 physicians
Traditional Kaiser Schedule (21 months)
Frog Component Design-Build (11.5 months)
Kaiser Permanente MOBVictorville, CA
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Today’s Agenda
– Quick Macro Outlook
– US/FL Housing Outlook
– US/FL Nonresidential Building Outlook
– Key Trends Impacting the Future of AEC
Model-driven
Fabrication (3D Printing)
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Bypass 3D Printed Pipe Fittings
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DfM
• 3D printing
• Manufacturers are
“printing” buildings with
layers of concrete
• Printer is 21’ tall and 105’
long
• Uses recycled waste
materials in mix
• 3 story house was
printed 1 floor/day,
cost=$160K
• 5 story apartment
building is largest 3D
printed building in the
world
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DfM
• 3D printing
• World’s first 3D printed office
building (Dubai)
• Gensler and Thornton Tomasetti
• Printer was 20’ high, 120’ long,
and 40’ wide
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DfM
• 3D printing
• Portable 3D printing with concrete
Contour Crafting
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DfM
• 3D printing
• Oak Ridge
National
Laboratory
unveils SOM-
designed 3D-
Printed building
powered by a
car
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DfM
• 3D printing
• 3D printing of custom
parts and
components in metal
will become feasible
for use in fabrication
and construction
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DfM
• 3D printing
• 3D printing of custom
parts and
components in metal
will become feasible
for use in fabrication
and construction
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DfM
• 3D printing
• Mass-customization
• MX3D in Amsterdam
• 3D printing of metal structures
Source: MX3D
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DfM
• 3D printing
Source: MX3D
• Mass-customization
• MX3D in Amsterdam
• Generative design and 3D printing of bridge over a canal
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DfM
• 3D printing
• Mass-customization
• MX3D in Amsterdam
• Generative design and 3D printing of bridge over a canal
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DfM
• 3D printing
• Mass-customization
• MX3D in Amsterdam
• Generative design and 3D printing of bridge over a canal
Source: MX3D
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DfM
• 3D printing
Source: MX3D
• Mass-customization
• 3D printing of structures
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Today’s Agenda
– Quick Macro Outlook
– US/FL Housing Outlook
– US/FL Nonresidential Building Outlook
– Key Trends Impacting the Future of AEC
Integrated
Digital
Project
Delivery
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Today’s Agenda
– Quick Macro Outlook
– US/FL Housing Outlook
– US/FL Nonresidential Building Outlook
– Emerging Trends That Will Impact the Future of AEC
The
Smarter
Jobsite
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The Smarter Jobsite
• Material supply chain
Source: Mortenson Construction
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Virtual | Augmented Reality and Wearables
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Survey re: Jobsite Advancements
• AR/VR
Source: MX3D
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Today’s Agenda
– Quick Macro Outlook
– US/FL Housing Outlook
– US/FL Nonresidential Building Outlook
– Emerging Trends That Will Impact the Future of AEC
The
Digital Twin
on a Global
Scale
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Kiewit. Driven by projects. Built by YOU.
2015 Annual MeetingBIM for Infrastructure Design and Construction
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Kiewit. Driven by projects. Built by YOU.
2015 Annual MeetingBIM for Infrastructure Design and Construction
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Source: Parsons BrinkerhoffSubgrade BIM
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Dewberry stuffExisting conditions visibility
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Key Trends
Future:
• Model-based processes
• Integrated data-rich workflows
• “…tions”
• Collaboration
• Integration
• Optimization
• Industrialization
• Globalization
Source: Turner Construction
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Thank You!