Transportation leadership you can trust.

presented to

presented byCambridge Systematics, Inc.

U.S. 70 Corridor Commission

June 19, 2014

Paula Dowell, PhD

Rocky Lane

U.S. 70 Corridor Economic Impact Assessment

Agenda

1• Economic

Development Analysis

2• Traffic Analysis

3• Economic Impact

Findings

Economic Development Analysis

Input into Analysis

InterviewsCountiesMunicipalitiesUtilities Regional Economic Development Organizations

Focus Groups

Data Research

Importance and Current Conditions of US 70

Varies widely from West to East

Critically Important for Communities Along 70

Rated 5 on a 1-5 Scale with 5 being the highest

Description “Our Main Street” “The Main East-West Artery” “The Only Way In or Out “We Live and Die by What Happens on 70”

All major employers located within two (2)

miles

Lenoir County~DuPont – 70 Trucks/Day going to I-95~500 Trucks/Day in/out of the main Industrial Park~Thousands of Jobs within ¼ mile of the US 70

Centerline-Kinston

A factor in most plant expansion decision

Completion of the Bypass system improves competitive position

Raw materials in/Finished goods out Expansion of labor pool

Economic Development Implications

Lost Projects in the Region

Existing Company Expansions

Big Rock Sports~ US 70 Conditions – not the key, but a contributing

factor~ Lost 160 Jobs – 80 remain

New LocationsBoeing-Access to I-95Gatorade-Access to I-95Boat Builder

Implications for Port and Global TransPark

Completion from I-95 to Port rated “High”Benefits to Port and Counties~Improve Quality of Port Projects~Open sites for Port Users

Connectivity to I-95 - “Very Important”

Global TransParkEnhances GTP’s prospectsPotentially opens sites and parks in other Corridor countiesNecessary but not sufficient

Military

Importance Rated at 4 Out of 5

Connectivity to I-95 – “Very Important”Primary corridor for delivery of mission critical elements - aircraft fuel & parts

Primary corridor for personnel going to the Washington, DC area

US 70 is not critical to fulfillment of missionDeployment – Non-Issue

BRAC – Non-Issue

Key Issues – Logistics & commuting related

Summary

Economic Profile - solid and healthy

Facing Challenges - Not all could be solved with completion of Bypass system

Improvements benefit all sectors of economic development

Improvements benefit not only the corridor but all of North Carolina

Traffi c Analysis

Methodology

Based on NCDOT forecasts

Individual bypass studies

Stakeholder input

Key Assumptions

Traffic projections completed at bypass level and not corridor level

Growth adjusted based on planned development, e.g., 6,000 jobs at GTP in 2040

Change in Travel Times

Route Distance (miles)

Current Travel Times

(minutes)

2040 No Build (minutes)

2040 Build

(minutes)

Travel Time Savings in

2040

Global TransPark to Raleigh 81.5 91 126 70 56

Global TransPark to Port of Morehead 76.3 88 86 65 21

Global TransPark to I-95 54 60 65 50 15

Port of Morehead to Raleigh 147 152 198 130 68

Port of Morehead to I-95 116 122 155 110 45

Source: Google Maps and Cambridge Systematics, Inc. calculations using travel skims from the NS Statewide model. Build scenario speed limit is assumed as 70 mph.

Economic Impact Analysis

Productivity

Market access

Business costs

GDP

Employment

Income

Impact Categories

Business Competitiveness

EconomicImpacts

Travel time

Vehicle operating costs

Safety cost

Reliability

Traffic volumes

Direct User Impacts

Economic Impact of Not Completing US 70 2014 - 2040

Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis using the REMI economic model. ( ) denotes negative values

Metric Incremental

Change %

U.S. 70 Counties

Business Transportation Costs ($billions 2012) $0.35

Gross Regional Product ($billions 2012) ($0.80) (0.16)

Personal Income ($billions 2012) ($0.61) (0.11)

Jobs (average annual full-time) (350) (0.15)

North Carolina

Gross Regional Product ($billions 2012) ($1.08) 0.20

Personal Income ($billions 2012) ($0.89) 0.17

Jobs (average annual full-time) (450) 0.18

Metric Incremental Change %

U.S. 70 Counties

Business Transportation Costs ($billions 2012) ($0.56)

Gross Regional Product ($billions 2012) $1.21 0.19

Personal Income ($billions 2012) $0.91 0.18

Jobs (average annual full-time) 550 0.19

North Carolina

Gross Regional Product ($billions 2012) $1.41

Personal Income ($billions 2012) $1.04

Jobs (average annual full-time) 600

Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis using the REMI economic model. ( ) denotes negative values

Economic Impact of Completing US 70 2014 - 2040

Market Access Analysis and Induced Economic Development

Economic development assessment

Stakeholder input

Site analysis

Gap analysis

I-40 Corridor

US 64 Corridor

Gap Analysis

Compare growth rate by industry along corridor

Identify area where corridor is over and under performing

Examine role of transportation

Estimate impact of enhancing transportation on closing any gaps

Growth ComparisonTable Error! No text of specified style in document..6 Comparison of Employment

Growth Along Key Corridors in Eastern North Carolina

Corridor Comparison U.S.70 Corridor I-40 Corridor U.S.64/264 Corridor

Employment Growth

Average Annual Growth

Rate

Change in Employment

Concentration

Average Annual Growth

Rate

Change in Employment

Concentration

Average Annual Growth

Rate

Change in Employment

Concentration 1990-2012 1990-2012 1990-2012 1990-2012 1990-2012 1990-2012

Average -0.05% 5% 0.45% 24% 0.87% 126% Source: North Carolina LEAD (Labor & Economic Analysis Division) of the North Carolina Department of Commerce, QECW data from http://esesc23.esc.state.nc.us/d4/QCEWSelection.aspx

Employment Impact of Closing the Gap

 I-40 Growth

Rate

U.S. 64/264Growth Rate

Average Annual Additional Jobs along U.S. 70

600 1,350

Summary Findings

Source of Impacts

 

Total ImpactsMetric Build

U.S. 70 Corridor 

Business Transportation Costs ($ Billions)

($.056)

Gross Regional Product ($ Billions) $2.55 - $3.80

Personal Income($ Billions) $1.90 - $2.85

Jobs (average annual full-time) 1,150 – 1,900

Rest of North Carolina 

Gross Regional Product ($ Billions) $1.40

Personal Income($ Billions) $1.05

Jobs (average annual full-time) 600Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis using the REMI economic model. ( ) denotes negative values

Key Takeaways

No build results in slower economic growth

340 fewer jobs per year and $800 million less in GRP between 2014 and 2040

Completing US 70 results in $56 million in business cost savings for existing users, $1.2 billion in GRP between 2014 – 2040

Increasing efficiency, accessibility and connectivity translates into 1,150 to 1,900 additional jobs per year along U.S. 70

In total, the upgrading the entire U.S. 70 corridor could give rise to an additional 1,150 to 1,900 jobs along the corridor and up to 2,500 jobs per year statewide