Urbanisation in Bangalore

7/31/2019 Urbanisation in Bangalore

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I will tell the story as I go alongof small cities no less than of great.

Most of those that were great once

are small today; and those which in

my own lifetime have grown to

greatness, were small enough in theold days.

-- HerodotusHerodotus(The introductory quote in Jacobs, 1969)


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Urbanisation in BangaloreUrbanisation in Bangalore

H. S. Sudhira


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OverviewOverview

z What is Urbanisation?

z

Looking at Cities as Complex SocialSystems

z Bangalore

z An Overview of the City

z Analysing Change for Bangalore City

z Development Characteristics across Bangalorez Policies, Planning and Programs

z Points to ponder


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What is Urbanisation?What is Urbanisation?

z Evolution of Humans against other lifeforms

z Organization of social systems 3 levelsz 1st Level: Hunter Gatherer

z

2nd

Level: Initial Settlements River Valleysz 3rd Level: Urban Areas / Towns and Cities

z Changing patterns of activityz 1st Level: Hunting, Collection of fruits, etc.

z 2nd Level: Agriculture Growing crops,

harvestingz 3rd Level: Industrialization Fossil-fuel based


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Tracing Human EvolutionTracing Human Evolution


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What is Urbanisation?What is Urbanisation?

z 3rd Level Post Industrialization

z Humans colonizing in large settlements

z Supported by surplus food made possibleby advances in agriculture

z Post 18th Century, transformation ofhuman population from largely Rural-Agrarian to Urban-Non-Agrarian

z Currently moving towards Urban ~Service-oriented economies from

Industrial and Manufacturing centers


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What is Urbanization?What is Urbanization?

z Urbanization characterized by the proportionalchange in urban to total population

z

Typically characterized by large scale migrationfrom rural-urbanz India is experiencing Urbanization only since

last 60 70 yearsz North America and North-Western Europe are

80 % urbanized and no scope for furtherurbanization

z Currently India is urbanizing at 3 4 % thanavg. population growth of 1 2 %

z India is about 27.2 % urbanized, while

Karnataka is about 34 %; according to 2001Census


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What is Urbanization?What is Urbanization?

z A causal phenomenon of Human Designand Evolutionary Emergence

z Human Design & Evolutionary Emergence


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Evolutionary Emergence &Evolutionary Emergence &HumanHumanDesignDesign

Photos: Sudhira and BMP


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Photos: Sudhira

l


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Photos: Sudhira


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Cities as Complex Social SystemsCities as Complex Social Systems

z Urbanization and Evolutionary Emergence!

z Towns and Cities as forms of Human Social

Organizationz Towns and Cities depict strange pattern!

z

Scaling in urban systems Zipfs Lawz Rank-size of towns and cities fit a power law

depicting hierarchy and urban primacy

z Towns and cities of Karnataka and India fitPower law for last 100 years

z

Essentially Bangalore ranked 1 in population 100years ago and continues to do so


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The Idea of EmergenceThe Idea of Emergence

z How systemsgrow and evolve

z Biological Evolution

z Cities and Evolution Urban Evolution

z Puzzles!!

z Size of a city and rank correlated!z Popular as Zipfs law / Pareto law

z Size of a city and growth uncorrelated!z Gibrats law

z Why?z

Historical path dependence and lock in


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Scaling and Urban SystemsScaling and Urban Systems

z Evolution of towns and cities since about8000 years

z Persistence of scaling behaviour in urbansystems

z

Are the scaling effects observed in urbansystems produced by the hierarchicalorganization of societies?

z Are they emergent properties linked withthe historical process of urbanization?

z

Could they disappear after the end of theurban transition?


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Emergence of Urban SystemsEmergence of Urban Systems

z Implications from Scaling behaviour

z Organization of human societies instructurally similar pattern as observed indifferent places irrespective of

z Geographic boundaries,z Political boundaries and

z

Political economiesz New Towns and Larger Urban

Agglomerations

E l ti f T d Citi iE l ti f T d Citi i


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Evolution of Towns and Cities inEvolution of Towns and Cities inKarnatakaKarnataka

z Dynamics of City-Size Distributions

z Verifying for Zipfs law for Karnataka from

1901 2001

z Verifying for Zipfs law for India 2001

V if i Zi f l li d t itiVerif ing Zipfs law as applied to cities


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Verifying Zipfs law as applied to citiesVerifying Zipfs law as applied to citiesin Karnataka for 2001in Karnataka for 2001

y = 3E+06x-1.0393

R2

= 0.9396

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 211 218 225 232

Rank of Cities

P

o

p

u

lation

(size)

Rank-Size

Power (Rank-Size)

Zipfs law as applied to cities inZipfs law as applied to cities in


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Zipfs law as applied to cities inZipf s law as applied to cities inKarnatakaKarnataka

Log Rank vs Log Size

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

0

.8

5

1

.1

1

1

.2

8

1

.4

1

.4

9

1

.5

7

1

.6

3

1

.6

9

1

.7

4

1

.7

9

1

.8

3

1

.8

6

1

.9

1

.9

3

1

.9

6

1

.9

9

2

.0

1

2

.0

4

2

.0

6

2

.0

8

2

.1

2

.1

2

2

.1

4

2

.1

6

2

.1

8

2

.2

2

.2

1

2

.2

3

2

.2

4

2

.2

6

2

.2

7

2

.2

9

2

.3

2

.3

1

2

.3

2

2

.3

4

2

.3

5

2

.3

6

2

.3

7

Log Rank

Log

P

opulation

Log-Population vs Log Rank

Verifying Zipfs law as applied to citiesVerifying Zipfs law as applied to cities


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Verifying Zipf s law as applied to citiesVerifying Zipf s law as applied to citiesin Indiain India

y = 6E+07x-1.2067

R2 = 0.9583

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 177 188 199 210 221 232 243 254 265 276 287 298 309 320 331 342 353 364 375Rank

P

opu

latio

n

Total Population Power (Total Population)


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Zipfs law as applied to cities in IndiaZipfs law as applied to cities in India

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 1

1

.2

8

1

.4

5

1

.5

7

1

.6

6

1

.7

4

1

.8

1

1

.8

6

1

.9

1

1

.9

6 2

2

.0

4

2

.0

7

2

.1

2

.1

3

2

.1

6

2

.1

9

2

.2

1

2

.2

4

2

.2

6

2

.2

8

2

.3

2

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2

2

.3

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2

.3

5

2

.3

7

2

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9

2

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2

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2

2

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2

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2

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6

2

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2

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9

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2

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1

2

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2

2

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4

2

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5

2

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6

2

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7

2

.5

8

Log Rank vs Log Population


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Evolution ofEvolution of parameter from 1901parameter from 1901 -


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Evolution ofEvolution of parameter from 1901parameter from 1901 --20012001

Evolution of alpha parameter

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

alpha


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Evolution ofEvolution of parameterparameter

Year (alpha) R 2 Pk P11901 0.8307 0.9341 177976 163091

1911 0.8455 0.9212 181396 1894851921 0.8503 0.9491 209419 240054

1931 0.8456 0.9562 243477 309785

1941 0.8838 0.9528 333558 4109671951 0.8719 0.9669 462989 786343

1961 0.8973 0.9651 619737 1206961

1971 0.9199 0.9441 895520 1664208

1981 0.9306 0.9801 1294733 2921751

1991 0.9628 0.9784 1812023 41302882001 1.0393 0.9396 3002970 5686844

b


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Patterns in Urban SystemsPatterns in Urban Systems

z In the case of urban systems, scaling effects could bestudied by relating either cities population size, theiroccupied surface, density of activities, speed of

transports, income levels and/or accessibility intransportation systems...z To consider the question of urban spatial expansion at

two scales of analysis, trying to understand two

contrasting processes:z at the level of the city, slower growth in surface than in

population, increasing urban densities, then rapid urban sprawlwith a larger increase in surface than in population during thelast decades, inside a general model of spatial distribution

characterized by a rather steep but recently decreasing densitygradient from the centre to the periphery; and

z growth in size and number of cities but with increasing sizeinequalities (and local concentrations) at the scale of the

interurban processes (national or regional territories)

P i b S


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Patterns in Urban SystemsPatterns in Urban Systems

z In both cases, the controlling parameterscould be the means of transportation,

with varying speeds over time, and theirtypical spatial range that is different when

adapting to the daily urban system or tothe connection within networks of cities

z But perhaps other social (economic) orphysical processes have to be included toprovide a consistent model at both scales

d k lB d k l lB l lB l


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BendakaaluruBendakaaluru -- BangaloreBangalore -- BengalooruBengalooru

Courtes : Goo le Inc. and H erCam

B l A i f h CiB l A i f th Cit


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Bangalore: An overview of the CityBangalore: An overview of the City

z Origins and Historyz Etymology and Historical Accounts

z Climate, Geography and Environmentz Growth in Bangalore

z Governance and Administrationz City Economy and Land use

z

Mobilityz Land use and Transportation

z Development Characteristics acrossBangalore


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GROWTH OFGROWTH OFBANGALOREBANGALORE

CITYCITY

Maps: Directorate of Census

Operations and BMP

Bangalore City Corporation limits overBangalore City Corporation limits over


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Bangalore City Corporation limits overg y pthe yearsthe years

Sl.No. Year Area (sq. km)

1. 1949 69

2. 1963-64 112

3. 1969 134

4. 1979 1615. 1995 226

6. 2006 696

P l ti G thP l ti G th


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Population GrowthPopulation Growth

Population Growth of Bangalore City during 1871 - 2005

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2005

Year

Popula

tion

Population

Cli t G h d E i tClimate Geograph and En ironment


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Climate, Geography and EnvironmentClimate, Geography and Environment

z 12 35 Cz 12.59 N and 77.57 Ez

875 m to 940 m above msl Undulating terrainz Ridge dividing 3 watershedsz Strengthened by Chain of Tanks

z As per recent satellite imagery, only 34 lakes arevisible, out of which only about 18 exist in someshape while another 20 show some signs ofexistence

z Green spaces harbouring Flora and Faunaz Most recently, Bangalore also witnessed a new

ant species, Dilobocondyla bangalorica, describedfrom the city (Varghese, 2006)

Bangalore LakesBangalore Lakes


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Bangalore LakesBangalore Lakes

Sudhira, 2006. Ban alore Lakes, Wa farin Ma . Available Online: htt ://www.wa farin .com/ma s/show/19613

BangaloreBangalore
http://www.wayfaring.com/show/19613/http://www.wayfaring.com/show/19613/http://www.wayfaring.com/show/19613/http://www.wayfaring.com/show/19613/http://www.wayfaring.com/show/19613/http://www.wayfaring.com/show/19613/


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BangaloreBangalore

z Governance and Administration

z Multitude of organisations coordination and

changing mandatesz Common Geographic Unit / Boundary

z Hence no information to interpret across domains

z City Economy and Land Usez Core City Functions Jobs

z Moving jobs on the periphery inducing mobility tothe outskirts

z Inputs for City: Water, Energy, Labour, Food, Work

z What can Bangalore say as its own?

Institutional DynamicsInstitutional Dynamics


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Institutional DynamicsInstitutional DynamicsNo. Organisations Functional Areas (Scope of Work)

1 Bangalore Mahanagara Palike (BMP)

Urban local body responsible for overall delivery of services - Roads androad maintenance including asphalting, pavements and street lighting; solid

waste management, education and health in all wards, storm water drains,

construction of few Ring roads, flyovers and grade separators

2 Bangalore Development Authority (BDA)

Land use zoning, planning and regulation within Bangalore Metropolitan

Area; Construction of few Ring roads, flyovers and grade separators

3Bangalore Metropolitan Region Development

Authority (BMRDA)

Planning, co-ordinating and supervising the proper and orderly

development of the areas within the Bangalore Metropolitan Region, which

comprises Bangalore urban district, Bangalore rural district and Malur

taluk of Kolar district. BDAs boundary is a subset of BMRDAs boundary

4Bangalore Water Supply and Sewerage Board

(BWSSB)

Drinking water pumping and distribution, sewerage collection, water and

waste water treatment and disposal

5 Bangalore City Police

Enforcement of overall law and order;

Traffic Police: Manning of traffic islands; Enforcement of traffic laws;

Regulation on Right of Ways (One-ways)

6Bangalore Metropolitan Transport Corporation

(BMTC)

Public transport system Bus-based

7 Bangalore Metro Rail Corporation Ltd (BMRC)Public transport system Rail-based (Proposed)

8 Regional Transport Office (RTO) Motor vehicle tax; Issue of licenses to vehicles

9 Bangalore Electricity Supply Company (BESCOM)Responsible for power distribution

10 Lake Development Authority (LDA) Regeneration and conservation of lakes in Bangalore urban district

City Economy and Land UseCity Economy and Land Use


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City Economy and Land UseCity Economy and Land Use

Bangalore FCC IRSLISS-III - 1999

Bangalore FCCASTER - 2003


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Bangalore and MobilityBangalore and Mobility


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Bangalore and MobilityBangalore and Mobility

z Mobility

z Systems Analysis for Mobility

z Presence of Braess Paradox for transportationnetworks

z

Stakeholders involvedz Multitude of organisations and no

information

z Systems Analysis Systems Thinkingz Represented by Causal Loop Diagrams

Causal Loop Diagram for MobilityCausal Loop Diagram for Mobility


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Causal Loop Diagram for MobilityCausal Loop Diagram for Mobility

Road Widening /

Other Construction

Pressure toReduce

Congestion

Travel Time

Road Capacity

Traffic Volume Attractiveness

of Driving

Trips per day

Average Trip

Length

Desired Travel

Time

Adequacy of

Public Transport

Public Transit

FarePublic Transit

Ridership

Vehicles per

Person

Vehicles in the

Region

Population and

Economic Activity

Extent of City within

Desired Travel Time

+

+

- +-

+

+

-+

+++

+

+ +

-

-

+

+

+

--

B1

Capacity

ExpansionR1

Outgrowth

of City

B2

Discretionary

Trips

B3

Extra Travel

B4

Take Public

Transport?

Corridor development in light ofCorridor development in light ofBRAESS P dBRAESS P d


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BRAESS ParadoxBRAESS Paradox

z Originally presented by Braess in 1968.

z It consists of a phenomenon which

contradicts the common sense:z in a congested traffic network, when a new

link connecting two points (e.g. origin anddestination) is constructed,

z it is possible that there is no reduction

regarding the time necessary to commutefrom the origin to the destination.

z

Actually, frequently this time increases and sothe costs for the commuters

BMP Master Plan for TransportationBMP Master Plan for TransportationN t kN t k


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NetworksNetworks

Land Use and TransportationLand Use and Transportation


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Land Use and Transportationp

z Changing land use patterns out growthof urban areas

z The percentage of parks and open spacesincluding lakes and tanks is around 2.5 to 3 %down from 4.4 % in 2002

z The built-up was 16 % in 2000 and is currentlyestimated to be around 23-24 %

z Creation of ring road Sinks of sprawlz Legitimizing/demarcating the extent of

outgrowth

Migration as a factor for Urban GrowthMigration as a factor for Urban Growth


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gg

z Why Migration?

z Livelihood

z Irregular rainfall and failing crops

z Decision to Migrate, if

z Expected real income in Urban > Expectedreal income in Rural

z Probability of finding a job in Urban > 0

Migration as a factor for Urban GrowthMigration as a factor for Urban Growth


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gg

z Analysis of Migration in Bangalore UrbanAgglomeration:z Place of last residence

z In Karnataka or outside Karnatakaz In Rural or Urban

z Reason for Migrationz Work / Employmentz Moved with householdz Moved after birthz Educationz Marriagez Businessz

Othersz Duration of Residence

z Less than one yearz 1 5 yearsz

5 9 yearsz Greater than 10 years


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Migrants, their place of residence andMigrants, their place of residence andreason for migrationreason for migration all durationsall durations


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reason for migrationreason for migration all durationsall durations

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Work/employment

Business

Education

MarriageMoved after birth

Moved with household

Others

Last Residence elsewhere in India - Rural

Last Residence elsewhere in India - UrbanWithin the state of enumeration but outside the place - RuralStates in India beyond the state of enumeration - UrbanWithin the state of enumeration but outside the place - UrbanStates in India beyond the state of enumeration - Rural

Migrants, their place of residence andMigrants, their place of residence andreason for migrationreason for migration 10+ years10+ years


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reason for migrationreason for migration 10+ years10+ years

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Work/employment

Business

Education



Others

Last Residence elsewhere in India - Rural

Last Residence elsewhere in India - UrbanWithin the state of enumeration but outside the place - RuralStates in India beyond the state of enumeration - UrbanWithin the state of enumeration but outside the place - UrbanStates in India beyond the state of enumeration - Rural

Migrants, their place of residence andMigrants, their place of residence andreason for migrationreason for migration 55-9 years9 years


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reason for migrationreason for migration 55--9 years9 years

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Work/employment

Business

Education



Others

Last Residence elsewhere in India - RuralLast Residence elsewhere in India - UrbanWithin the state of enumeration but outside the place - RuralStates in India beyond the state of enumeration - UrbanWithin the state of enumeration but outside the place - UrbanStates in India beyond the state of enumeration - Rural

Migrants, their place of residence andMigrants, their place of residence andreason for migrationreason for migration less than 1 yearless than 1 year


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reason for migrationreason for migration less than 1 yearless than 1 year

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Work/employment

Business

Education



Others

Last Residence elsewhere in India - RuralLast Residence elsewhere in India - UrbanWithin the state of enumeration but outside the place - RuralStates in India beyond the state of enumeration - UrbanWithin the state of enumeration but outside the place - UrbanStates in India beyond the state of enumeration - Rural

Development Characteristics acrossDevelopment Characteristics acrossBangaloreBangalore


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BangaloreBangalore

Development ZonesSl.

No.Characteristics

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3

1. Authority Bangalore City

Corporation

Greater Bangalore City

Corporation (proposed) with

existing neighbouring urban

local bodies

Development Authorities

and other Town and

Village Municipal

Councils

2. Urban Status Core city Outgrowth Potential areas for future

outgrowth

3. Infrastructure

Services

Present, but nearly

choked, needs

augmenting of existinginfrastructure

Not fully present, with new

growth, requires planning

and augmentation ofinfrastructure

Farmlands and scattered

settlements with minimal

no infrastructure

4. Impact of growth No scope for new

growth but calls for

urban renewal to ease

congestion

High potential for growth,

since already peri-urban

area and emergence of

new residential layouts andother developments

Mostly rural, with minimal

growth currently, but

potential for future

growth

5. Planning,

Development and

Regulation

Controls

Planning not vested

with urban local bodies,

while local bodies

control for building

regulations

Planning not vested with

urban local bodies, minimal

regulation on construction

Planning vested with

parastatal agencies:

BDA and BMRDA and

not other local bodies, no

regulation onbuilding/construction

Policies, Planning and ProgramsPolicies, Planning and Programs


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z Policies and Planning

z Information & Indicators

z Dynamics and Modelsz Evaluation of Policies

z Capturing the multitude of processes inurban systems

z

Programsz State govt. initiatives

zJnNURM

Planning trendsPlanning trends


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z Multiple Agencies and Plansz Comprehensive Development Plans BDA

z City Development Plans BMP

z Infrastructure Development and Investment Plan KUIDFC

z Comprehensive Traffic and Transportation Plan

Ritesz Coordination ?

z Planning for Life, with Philosophy, Culture,Tradition, and Resources

z Spatial Planning Support Systems ?z

Prototype Simulations


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Points to ponderPoints to ponder


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z Does evolution of new cities follow anyunderlying principle?

z Does emergence of large cities irrespective of theinternational / national / regional economic /political boundary follow Zipfs law?

z Alright, if they are following Zipfs law what dothey suggest?

z

Are urban systems and hence urban evolutionself-organizing?

z If rank - size distribution is the accepted, what

do deviations at the end suggest?



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z Central questions are:

z When do we know / ascribe the emergence of

new cities?z When do we know / ascribe the decline of

large cities

z And when does these large cities collapse?(recall Herodotus quote)

z Any possible ways to detect at least half-life of these cities?



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z Is Bangalores growth self-organizing?

z How long will Bangalore retain its rank in

Karnataka?z Does planning aid in addressing cities at

different scales?z Near-to-Short term / Immediate: Requires

Operational Planning

z

Short-to-Medium: 5-10 yearsz Long-term: 10+ years

z What will be the fate of cities beyond the

fossil fuel regime?

More Questions, than Answers!!More Questions, than Answers!!


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Thanks very much!

Where do we go!?Where do we go!?

Zipfs Law / Power LawZipfs Law / Power Law


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z Originally, Zipf's law stated that, in a corpus of naturallanguage utterances, the frequency of any word isroughly inversely proportional to its rank in thefrequency table

z So, the most frequent word will occur approximatelytwice as often as the second most frequent word, whichoccurs twice as often as the fourth most frequent word,etc

z The term has come to be used to refer to any of a familyof related power law probability distributionsz Zipf's law is most easily observed by scatter plotting the data,

with the axes being log (rank order) and log (frequency)z For example, "the" as described above would appear at x =

log(1), y = log(69971)z If the points are close to a single straight line, the distribution

follows Zipf's law

Source: Wikipedia

Zipfs rankZipfs rank--size rulesize rule


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z Zipf had expressed such a regularity as aninverse geometric progression between thepopulation Pi of a city and its rank Ri in a

national set of towns and cities, giving anapproximate size of one half of the largest citypopulation for the population of the second cityand one third for the third one, and so on

z This rank size-rule formulated as Pi = P1 / Rihas been generalized as a Pareto-typedistribution of the number of cities according to

their size,z Pi = K / Ri ,z where the parameter K has a value close to P1 and

is around 1

Urbanisation in Bangalore

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