Urbana - Roach Ag Marketing, Grain Marketing, Corn Marketing · Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag. Marketing...

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

2013-14 Grain Market Outlook and

Strategies for

UrbanaPresented by: John Roach

8/21/13


Disclaimer:Futures/options trading involves substantial risk of loss and trading may not be suitable for all investors. You should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the derivative(s) noted in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be legal.These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Roach Ag. Marketing is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Roach Ag. Marketing designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Roach Ag. Marketing.


World grain and oilseed demand has increased, even during recentperiods of economic problems and

high to record high grain prices.Average usage growth has been 2.5% per year over past 5 years.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.Source: USDA WASDE


30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

2010

/11

2011

/12

2012

/13

2013

/14

Day

s of

Sup

ply

World SoybeansEnding Stocks Days of Supply

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.Source: NOAA

30-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation

Key western bean areas have been dry


Source: USDA NASS

U.S. bean crop rated very good

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

WEEK#21

WEEK#22

WEEK#23

WEEK#24

WEEK#25

WEEK#26

WEEK#27

WEEK#28

WEEK#29

WEEK#30

WEEK#31

WEEK#32

WEEK#33

WEEK#34

WEEK#35

WEEK#36

WEEK#37

WEEK#38

WEEK#39

Soybean Crop Condition (% Good/Excellent)

5-YR Range

5-YR Avg

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14


Source: INTL FCStone


U.S. bean ending stocks growing but will be tight

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.Source: USDA PSD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1960/61

1961/62

1962/63

1963/64

1964/65

1965/66

1966/67

1967/68

1968/69

1969/70

1970/71

1971/72

1972/73

1973/74

1974/75

1975/76

1976/77

1977/78

1978/79

1979/80

1980/81

1981/82

1982/83

1983/84

1984/85

1985/86

1986/87

1987/88

1988/89

1989/90

1990/91

1991/92

1992/93

1993/94

1994/95

1995/96

1996/97

1997/98

1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

Million Metric

Ton

s

U.S. and Foreign Corn ExportsUnited States Foreign


World coarse grain supplies still tight


Source: USDA FSA, Roach Ag Marketing



Key western bean areas have been dry

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

WEEK#20

WEEK#21

WEEK#22

WEEK#23

WEEK#24

WEEK#25

WEEK#26

WEEK#27

WEEK#28

WEEK#29

WEEK#30

WEEK#31

WEEK#32

WEEK#33

WEEK#34

WEEK#35

WEEK#36

WEEK#37

WEEK#38

WEEK#39

Corn Crop Condition

5-YR Range5-Yr Avg2010-112011-122012-132013-14


U.S. corn crop rated very good


Stocks will be tighter than currently estimated due to smaller crop / bigger usage


Source: Futuresource


500.0

525.0

550.0

575.0

600.0

625.0

650.0

675.0

700.0

1991

/92

1992

/93

1993

/94

1994

/95

1995

/96

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

2010

/11

2011

/12

2012

/13

2013

/14

Mill

ion

Tons

World WheatProduction

Source: USDA WASDE

World wheat stocks tightening


1000

1500

2000

2500

93/9

494

/95

95/9

696

/97

97/9

898

-99

99/0

000

/01

01/0

202

/03

03/0

404

/05

05/0

606

/07

07/0

808

/09

09/1

010

/11

11/1

212

/13

13/1

4

Mill

ion

Bus

hels

US Wheat Production


Source: USDA WASDE


Source: USDA NASS

Source: USDA WASDE



Source: Futuresource

Money Flow has been“Negative Grains”



How Should U.S. Farmers Market Their Crops in

2013 - 14

“The Roach Ag Plan”

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00

Mar Apr May Jun Oct Nov Mar Apr May Jun Oct Nov

Sell New Crop CornBuy Puts on BalanceBuy calls on sold grain in buy signals

Sell Balance of Old CropRepeat New Crop Strategy

Don't Sell Here!Reownership


•Focus the majority of sales in the 1st half of the year

•Best Prices Usually Occur in March to June


Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal


Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

568 East Yamato RoadSuite 200

Boca Raton, FL 33431

+1-561-994-9394

[email protected]://www.roachag.com

Urbana - Roach Ag Marketing, Grain Marketing, Corn Marketing · Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag. Marketing...

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